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Thomas Walsh

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  1. Ok I was looking for specifics. From what I’ve seen they’ve just gone tit for tat up the percentages. The largest consumer and importer on the planet will always have a “trade penis” fyi. No reason to be so absolute on this. It’ll be interesting to follow the deals like the potential EV one you cite. For the time being China will likely have to subsidize industry until one of us “blinks”.
  2. How is China playing this masterfully?
  3. Don’t fight the Fed. covid shutdown of global economy, not just certain trade partners, caused plenty of supply chain shocks, global reordering. They still pumped this market after that crash. Hey, it’s better than google search now.
  4. Regional Banks 2023?
  5. Out of your points the most compelling in the stock market drop. It's been quick, but now we sit about 13% below S&P highs. #1- Did you know that longer term interest rates are influenced heavily by short term rates. Those are central bank dependent. Any idea what the rates are for ECB and Bank of Canada? #3- Interesting datapoint, but a soft indicator historically #4- Seems a bit hyperbolic. Things happened that fast? #5- You're the one who answered with just bond yields. Sorry the historical data didn't support it. FWIW it is obvious big changes are going to happen. I'm suspicious that it will all be declared a "crisis" in hindsight. If you are certain it will be then you should make some bets to profit off of it.
  6. I asked AI and this is what I got back Based on available data, the closest parallel to the current surge occurred in late September to early October 2023, when the 10-year yield jumped from about 4.1% to 4.8% in roughly two weeks—a roughly 70-basis-point increase. The current 10-day rise, estimated at around 50-60 basis points (from approximately 3.9% to 4.51%), is significant but slightly less intense in magnitude.
  7. What qualifies this as a crisis?
  8. Holding any directional bets over the weekend takes some real conviction. After hours news dump could sling it either way.
  9. Portnoy has released 3 pizza reviews he did while in SA for Final 4.
  10. So, evidently this show is back. Watched premiere with my wife last night. It's one of her favorite shows. I had forgotten about it. Guess what? June is on the run again. Looks like the season has good reviews online and wife liked the premiere so I guess I'm in.
  11. Everyone here should be happy. The narrative was that Trump was a madman who would only escalate, never de-escalate. If you think he backed down, then it's a win. That's also good from a market standpoint, because future tariff talk will be discounted to an extent. Unless of course people forget his tactics again.
  12. Permabears always get rekt.
  13. What a bounce. with S&p at 5350, it's now down 5.6% since Wednesday close and the release of the tariff chart.
  14. I would think for non-China countries it will be some mix of removing or lowering their pre-existing tariffs and also bringing down non-tariff trade barriers. I'm no expert on that, but it's being brought up a lot now. Maybe another poster can elaborate on that.
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