How likely is it that Trump is left off a few ballots in a states, like Maine, which could cost electoral votes? Could you imagine if he was kept off Maine's ballot, didn't have a chance at that 1 EV, and lost 268 to 270? That would would be insane.
If somehow Nikki pulls off the upset and takes the nomination away from Trump, how badly does that hurt the GOP nationally? That has to cause a significant portion of their national support to skip voting and kill their chances in a lot of narrow races downballot for the House and Senate. Unless he runs third party, which would effectively tank Haley's chances of winning.
I'm still surprised at Biden's low approval rating, hovering around 38% right now. I thought he would be in the mid 40s with the current economy. It's only dropped about 1% since the Israel/Gaza war, which is less than I expected. Is it the border crisis that's dragging him down? Would be great to get a deal passed in Congress to address that now, so we can hopefully see some improvement in a few months. Doubtful that will happen in the current landscape though.