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  1. Cross-posting Scipio's breakdown from the 9.95 thread. Thanks @satyanash Quote As I mentioned in my previews, Washington is the rare college offense that can execute like a well-orchestrated rhythm machine of football nerds while also doing YOLO “playmakers make plays” baller things. 99% of college passing offenses are predominantly one or the other and the opposing defense can attack either the offense’s lack of athleticism or indiscipline for stops. No easy day for Texas in that regard. Washington required Texas to be buttoned up to hold down (stopping was never a realistic premise) their offense. Texas was less than buttoned up. Their fly (and fly routes) were open all too often. When confronted with a high level passing offense, a defensive coaching staff can make a few choices in their month of bowl preparation. They can introduce novelty in scheme and/or personnel to disrupt or they can double down on what they usually do and try to clean up poor execution. Or some combo of both. The combo means rather than a total reimagining, which can be risky, you introduce a new coverage, intro a new blitz package or two, or roll out a different personnel group to steal a key possession while also making sure the defense doesn’t bust on core staples. Alternatively, pure reinforcement means not complicating things and really nailing down core teachings over 15 practices, geared specifically to the other team’s scouting report. Clear minds, play fast, bring it. You also have to call a good game and not lose many calls before the athletes even get their say. Unfortunately, Texas accomplished neither. No novelty. No improvement in its base schemes. A regular game plan that exhibited no accompanying benefit of clear assignments or hair-on-fire urgency. Texas chose to do what it do. Something you’d expect to see from an experienced NFL team that played on a Sunday evening and then had a quick Thursday turnaround. Dance with who brung us and make adjustments on the fly in-game. Unfortunately, the Texas pass defense didn’t brung us to the playoffs. So the “let’s just do what we do” game plan probably began with a fallacy at its inception. Doing what we do on the back end isn’t very good, though facing Behren Morton and Texas Tech’s backup receivers or Alan Bowman (3 passing touchdowns in a blowout) and an outgunned Oklahoma State may have created some illusion of competency for us all. Players missed assignments, Washington was able to scheme their good on our average repeatedly, there were some down and distance calls that didn’t match game situation – the battle was lost before the ball was even snapped – and Michael Penix Jr and his receivers played out of their minds. That last part didn’t help. Let’s not gloss that over. Washington has some absolute studs. Penix finished the game 29 of 38 for 430 yards with no forced turnovers, no sacks and a handful of pressures. Terrific pocket presence, accuracy, eyes downfield and an absolute dawg mentality. Allowing 11.3 yards every time he dropped back to pass and nearly 15 yards on every completion is poor, but perhaps there is some solace in the fact that he was more contained in the second half after a first half where he was 11 of 14 for 255 yards and a 18.2 yards per attempt average. Penix and his receivers exhibited plenty of play that should elicit a hat tip and a whistle of admiration. You shrug and play on. They were going to make plays. Criticizing that is like yelling at the tides. The key question was how many plays the Texas defense could afford to place on a tee and offer free swings? Those errors needed to fit on the fingers of one hand, not two hands and some toes. Plays like this: In Game 14, allowing an uncovered receiver to split safeties is not ideal and while Penix made some wonderful throws, the throw above happens every Friday night in Texas high school football. As for personnel usage, Texas ran its normal rotations and introduced no twists (literally) to the game plan. Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat finished with their typical 41 snaps each, Washington ran in a touchdown with our mostly backup DL personnel in the game and Texas never really tried different front mixes to see if bigger edges (Broughton, Collins) or a three man covered G-C-G package with accompanying blitz or edge stunts could alter the pocket. It’s instructive that Washington’s two best defenders in the game – Bralen Trice and Jabar Muhammad – played every down they were healthy. Washington likely wished they could spell them 10-15 snaps, but they’d rather go out with their best firing the whole magazine in a survive and advance scenario rather than conserve ammo. It would be difficult for me not to have Murphy in the game 55+ snaps. Or find Collins and Broughton their snaps on the edges or as part of odd fronts rather than dutifully rotating in lesser players like we were playing Rice. In this type of game, I think you want as much good on the field as possible at all times. Also, disposition. I mean in both senses of the word. I mean orientation to the offense you’re facing and a general sense of emotional urgency. Texas defenders blitzed or rushed cautiously on way too many downs, we never attacked the interior with blitzers until late (and it was moderately effective in forcing resets or early balls – part of Penix’s first half drop off from extraordinary to the second half’s very good) and several times I saw us offering containment rushes on a pocket QB. Whether strategy or a player resigning to getting beaten by the OL across from him, that dog won’t hunt. Washington’s 280 pound center was uncovered on more than half of our downs. He became a quick-footed double teaming asset rather than a potential bull rush liability. There were also a handful of coverages unsuitable to down and distance. Like a 3rd and 2 off zone coverage with a vacating LB blitzer that allowed a wide open tight end to take three steps and move the chains during a critical late 4th quarter drive that ended in Washington points. Or asking Michael Taaffe to play a speed out on 3rd and long from an interior safety spot. Does Earl Thomas get to that? That wasn’t an expression of Husky ballerness. Just basic offensive execution vs. a bad call. We really needed to limit those. On the positive side, Texas predictably stoned the standard Washington run game (Dillon Johnson 21-49) and the defense held up well on money downs (Washington was 4 of 13), in no small part because Kalen DeBoer chose to run on 3rd and 4th and short rather than throw play action. I’m grateful for that. Overall, Texas bled 532 yards and 37 points. A ton of credit goes to the Huskies and a passing offense that lived up to every bit of hype, but if this defensive effort had been rolled out early in the year against a non-con opponent, the discussion would be how Texas didn’t want to show anything for a quality future opponent. So even while acknowledging Husky passing game excellence, we didn’t fire all of our bullets. I’m not sure we even brought them all to the fight. Defensive Line Byron Murphy had some success as a pass rusher and was terrific against the run. He had four hurries and if anyone else had also gotten push with him, they would’ve been sacks or fractional turnover opportunities. Sweat had some terrific moments in short yardage, including one big stop where he took on a double team without even getting down into his stance. Alfred Collins had some great snaps. Would have liked to have seen him paired more often with a big front or on the edge. Edge pass rush was non-existent. There were long periods where edges played the I’m-going-to-stand- here-praying-an-interior-player-flushes-Penix-to-me game, but that’s not what we needed or how Penix plays football. I mentioned in the pre-game that this was not a Justice Finkley game. On one possession I watched him get handled in pass protection by Washington’s former walk-on tight end. On the next play, a Husky offensive tackle big-brothered him flat footed and drove him into the ground. The lack of T/E stunts or twists was notable. Nor did Texas use immediate pressure blitzers to create 1 on 1s inside. If you want to play lots of guys, they should be playing like maniacs. Use depth and energy on games and stunts to force Washington’s OL to at least move their feet and pass off assignments. Watch Washington’s pass rush. Watch ours. Who is going harder? Yeah, surprised me too. I didn’t have that on my bingo card. Is that because Washington’s front was allowed to line up in different spots, stunt and attack more? Yeah, I think so. It created energy and attitude. Texas had no sacks and three tackles for loss. The least havoc-inducing effort of the year. Linebackers I’m not sure if our game plan or Washington’s made them more irrelevant for large stretches, but the net effect was the same. They weren’t attacked in the passing game so much as simply bypassed and ignored. PK didn’t use Hill’s quickness as a rusher and disruptor until late. Why? Blitzes came haltingly from distance, which even cursory scouting predicted would be ineffective. Gbenda played with energy. Defensive Backs Terrance Brooks was probably identified as the duck in the Texas secondary. Washington is pretty good at handling Ducks. He surrendered two big catches for over 100 yards total, including a 77 yarder in the 1st quarter in man coverage on the kind of no-man’s land blitz that I was worried about. Ryan Watts also gave up 100+ yards with too much Husky efficiency, but one of them was on an unreal sideline throw and catch that I can’t fault him for. The “going too low” penalty on him was utter nonsense. Muhammad played the best of the bunch, but that’s a relative statement. Tough play here. Holmes only logged 10 snaps. Jahdae Barron was stretched thin, resulting in a surprisingly efficient targeting of #23 for 9 of 11 for 104 yards. A lot of those successful short throws felt like an exploitation of our coverage more than Jahdae himself. Great tackle by #23 to prevent a first down on 3rd down late in the 2nd half. Prevented Washington points. Michael Taaffe played winning football. Other than one mental mistake (I think – sometimes when we blow a coverage badly enough, it’s hard to tell the culprit) he was active, engaged, dialed in and brought some pop. Jerrin Thompson in single high triggered an immediate deep route. Derek Williams played like a freshman thrown in cold after the first half. Special Teams Keilan Robinson was allowed to return kicks with an arm cast. Not sure about that. Blue was close to getting a big gain on one of his kick returns. Xavier Worthy was clearly at less than 100% laterally, so punt return impact potential was diminished. Auburn did his job. Coverage teams were fine. Texas had advantages here, but couldn’t bring them to bear. Final Thoughts Texas had a fatalistic game plan. It’s one thing to admire Washington’s passing game excellence, it’s another not to really compete on the white board with something that plays to Longhorn strengths. Or in the understandable absence of novelty, fail to demonstrate better proficiency in foundational principles with the benefit of extended prep time. None of this really matters, of course. The game was played, Texas lost a close one in which it brought its C+ game, there are no more opportunities left for the 2023 team, so any future key indicators are big picture. So here’s one to chew on: Texas probably needs to find an outside-the-box thinker, developer within scheme and general coverage mind to complement PK’s fundamental big picture approach in order to optimize. Now, an accompanying zoom out to an even bigger picture… Texas has a lot to be proud of and a good foundation for the future. The standard has been raised from exhibiting improvement to playoff contender in three years and that’s no small feat. Keep the big picture in mind, don’t be afraid to break things in the quest for excellence and trust that this program is getting much more right than wrong. Happy New Year and Hook ’em!
  2. The rout of Ukraine's elite fighters in the counteroffensive against Russia is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-counteroffensive-5b309595?st=cm2ba5nlfx46k6v&reflink=share_mobilewebshare I’m an idiot about war tactics, but I do know one thing about war strategy- the way to narrowly win a very important battle is to apply every advantage in resources you have, apply all your strategic analysis, plan for everything that can go wrong, and give it everything you have. Because, your opponent is doing the same. How much support should the west give Ukraine? “As much as we can spare” is the wrong answer. “As much as it takes to win decisively, even if it requires a wartime production” is the right answer.
  3. Last night was a good win. I temporarily misplaced my pitchfork. We're projected to go 7-11. Can we make it 8-10? What a ride.
  4. i’m still smiling from ear to ear, i cannot believe we won that game. i don’t remember the last time i was *that* resigned to a loss only to have us pull it out in the end. for all its deficiencies this team always plays hard. and going to disu down the stretch showed a higher iq than we’ve shown in previous games. plus we had to overcome some asinine officiating. that was a gutsy conference win. really really needed it too.
  5. I hate sports and the whole “he’s gotta have 2-3 years” thing. We all can see he’s not the guy but we “had” to hire him and if we miss the tourney this year with a team that shouldn’t miss the tourney we should make a change but instead we are forced to endure another season of this to make a change we could make now. Dumb. Oh well go horns! if we can’t win at home then we definitely won’t win tonight on the road. Maybe the reverse jinx will work.
  6. You guys rival sarvanaash with your constant offseason "here's how we lose a bunch of games no one is expecting" handwringing. It's become a sure sign of spring approaching on Surly when you two start picking out losses and assuming worst case scenarios. If you'd like to take the under on 8.5 for Texas next year, consider this an open invite to bet me any dollar figure you'd like to pledge on the under, and I'll take the over. Kentucky is now a threat? On the road, in Austin? Since the bestest Kentucky season ever in 2018, in which they went 10-3, let's look at their road performance: 2018-2023 (excluding corona 2020, in which they went 1-4 on the road) they are 12-11. Man, over .500 as a middling team in the SEC, on the road, is pretty impressive, right? 6 of those 12 wins are @ Louisville and @ Vanderbilt. Both programs during this same period, outside of Louisville in 2023, have been between some level of mediocre and putrid. Kentucky has gone 7-6 two years in a row and both seasons include one FCS opponent. They are as plain as grits in recruiting and scheme, they're losing defensive talent to the draft, and they run an offense predicated on running success. You'd have to believe that another transferring QB behind a middling OL and a new back would be able to go on the road, gash the Texas run defense to great success, and then the Kentucky defense would be able to somehow run roughshod over an experienced and good Texas OL in order to get to its 1st round caliber QB and TBs. Okay. Cool. How about Florida? Florida has gone 6-7/5-7/6-7 for the past three years. They haven't had a winning season since people believed cloth facemasks were a new fashion statement. Since 2018 (excluding corona 2020 in which they went 3-1 on the road) they are 10-12 on the road. But wait! That includes 2018/2019 when Mullen had UF on good footing and they went 7-1 on the road. From 2021 forward, they're 3-11 and 2-7 under Sun Belt Billy. Their lone 2021 road win was against a Texas A&M team that couldn't tie its shoes. They actually lost at hapless Vandy that same season because they were fucking terrible also. Their 2023 road victory? An absurd gift of a comeback against another loser program - South Carolina. There isn't more than maybe a couple of players on that roster that understand anything about winning against good teams on the road. Meanwhile, UF has been ravaged in the portal and there is the stench of death looming over the program. They play the toughest schedule in, maybe, history, in 2024. They come to Texas immediately after playing their emotional rivalry game against Georgia in Jacksonville. Barring a miracle, Napier is probably already fired when they visit Texas and they're playing out the string. This is a "trap" game in which anyone can reasonably expect these guys to get up on the road after being pummeled by a probable top 3 team at a neutral site? Get a grip. Anything can happen on any given Saturday, but the L risk for Texas next season is 1) UGA in Austin 2) @ Michigan 3) Jihad in Dallas 4) Jihad in BCS 5) Jihad in Fayetteville and 6) idiotic grab bag of options for Sarkisian to simply fail as a coach. Texas ATM and Arkansas should legitimately suck next season, so anything past #3 is just worrying about being stuck in 2010-2022 land again. Go there if you must, spare the rest of us that journey.
  7. They've gone from we have the best unmotivated, overly paid 5 stars who didn't win shit to we have the best underrated dudes no one has ever heard of which Melko is going to coach into 3 stars who still not gonna win shit. Hey but at least they are saving all that money and still not winning shit. Well, except for $75M.
  8. We're mainly toying with the idea of a spot with a couple of small homes (one for us, one for guests). Looking around, we find very little that's already built that is a style that we like so the idea of building from scratch seems to be the winning idea so far. It's definitely more of a dream than a reality at this point. I feel pretty confident I could build something decent once I have a starting point. It's the getting to the point where you have water, electric, and septic all ready to go that I've never done before.
  9. Agree overall, but Michigan wouldn't have played our offense the same way they played Washington's offense. Texas was a more balanced team. I would have liked our chances to get our scores in, and I think Michigan would have struggled to score enough against our defense, given the strengths of both units being what they were. As has been said many times, Washington was absolutely our worst matchup of the 3 other CFP teams. To think that we couldn't have beaten Michigan given their OT performance against the Alabama team that Texas manhandled in Tuscaloosa, I certainly wouldn't concede a loss there. I also wouldn't blindly predict a Texas win, either. It would have been a good game. Anyway, like others have said, this season was better than I expected and will go down among my favorite Longhorn teams of all time. And also like others have said, if anything this felt like a program that was a year ahead of schedule. I feel good about next year, and the years after that.
  10. Every year there are rumors of Harbaugh leaving, I never really took them seriously because it seemed he really wanted to be at Michigan despite the flirtations. After winning it all....... I think, if he gets an offer that gives him control (maybe not complete control) of the roster and a team that isn't a dumpster fire he probably takes it. And after last night. I am cool with that. Michigan hired Harbaugh to get them out of the doldrums and back to relevancy, put the program on stable legs, and he did that and more. I still think it is probably 50/50 he stays or goes. While Harbaugh wants that Super Bowl, after the past few years its becoming more clear that the NFL may not actually want Harbaugh. He is an odd duck, and he definitely pisses people off, not all NFL teams will want to deal with that, which is why he didn't get offers after interviewing the past few years. I think DC is probably out, based on how they hired for their search, they seem to be casting a wide net and I don't think at the end Harbaugh is going to interview particularly well compared to the long list of others. San Diego seems to be the only place that may say "fuck the baggage, we need a splash" Michigan has offered him 12.5 a year base, with bonuses of 500K for beating O$U 500k for winning B1G 1 Mil for making the playoffs 1.5 mil for Making the final 2.5 for winning a national championship. I am not sure that those all stack, so it may be 500k for beating OSU and winning the B1G and then one of the playoff bonuses, whichever it ends up being. But that is still close to 15 million a year. Owning an NFL team is a license to print money, but that is a lot of dough to shell out for a coach that flamed out due to a war with ownership the last time he was in the league.
  11. Generous? Try ridiculous? We lost to an average OU team this season, got a favorable call from the refs that sealed a win against a Houston team that had no business being on the same field as us, squeaked by K-State when they made a bone head decision to go for two, and held on for dear life against a moribund TCU. I'm not one of those SEC honks, but the schedule (especially when you add a roadie against Michigan and two true rival jihad games on the road) is going to be more difficult. We are losing all of our best skill position threats on offense, and our DT's that controlled the run game against every team we faced. I love what's coming back on the oline and QB, but there are a lot of unknowns. The expanded playoffs change everything though. That, to me, is the only goal of the regular season -- get to the tournament. There's a chance that Texas could lose 3 and still make the playoffs but I don't care how they get there, as long as they get there.
  12. I'm fine with Michigan winning. They're analogous to Texas in a lot of ways. This game proved we have a long way to go to have a cohesive team that can win a title. Defense needs to get better and the offense needs to play 100% every game. Something to work on. Also enjoyed it because Washington fans were a bit mouthy. But hey, you beat us. Awesome for you. What did that really matter in the long run?
  13. man. really sucks we couldn't do it this year. winning 3 or 4 games in a row at the end of the year is going to be brutal
  14. I mean Washington gave us DKR and Sark (in a way) so it’s an easy one for me. Up until this year I’ve always rooted for Michigan but the whole “us against the world because we got busted in a professionally elaborate sign stealing deal” pushed me over the edge. I picked the Huskies for the final four in that thread from August and I like them a lot for the win. Go Huskies!
  15. It is going to hurt to watch this game since we thought it was very winnable if we could just get past our bad match up against Washington. I guess I want to see Michigan win since I told an aggy troll back before the start of the 2021 season that Michigan and us would get there way before they ever did since blue bloods are blue bloods for a reason. This is when aggy was feeling even more full of themselves then usual with a top 4 finish in 2020.
  16. sure. i guess what i mean is that almost nobody around here has anything good or nice to say about barnes anymore. what he did from 1999-2010 isn’t what they remember or talk about. he’s a joke to a lot of people around here, as opposed to being fondly remembered as the best and greatest and most accomplished coach in school history. what he did from 99-2010 was great at the time, but because he set that standard and got our program to be a major player in national recruiting, now we need to exceed that standard. and i just don’t think that most of our fans realize that the odds of us finding another man as good as rick barnes who can win at an even higher level than he did is very very slim. so we should either embrace that level of winning as our ceiling, or realize that you’re going to be dealing with the chris beards and bill selfs and coach cal's of the world if you’re trying to go beyond that level of success.
  17. They're also still dying on the "now 'tu' is gonna have to contend with big, bad SEC defenses" hill as if we didn't go into Tuscaloosa and win convincingly in September. The Big 12 isn't nearly as far behind the SEC in quality as aggy seems to think it is.
  18. There was no felony. The DA declined to even press charges due to the he said/she said nature and lack of evidence. They got him in the first place because it was the obvious hire and a guy who would revitalize the program to the point of making far more money for the university than the $5 million they'd pay him. They wouldn't mind winning a title and will go for it if it's easy and doesn't require any risk or much effort, but they aren't 100 percent dedicated to doing what it takes to win. That's completely evident and why we have the shit show on the court we have right now. And that just isn't good enough for me. My time and money are too valuable to waste on half measure bullshit. It's why I find myself pulling away from the program and probably won't post much here about it any more. This today is maybe the 4th or 5th time I've posted about it all season. Such a shame because if they put in 80 percent of the effort on basketball they do for football we could be a national power with sustained success at the highest levels. We're the flagship university in the best talent rich basketball state in the country for fucks sake. It's frustrating.
  19. How many other head coaches have been arrested for a felony domestic assault? How many comparisons do we have to work with here? Even if Chris Beard is innocent of the charges, he's still responsible for being in that situation in the first place. He had plenty of warning signs. I don't understand making Chris Beard blameless here for the sake of winning in basketball. And I loved Chris Beard. The bar wasn't even that high. Just don't get arrested. Texas has covered up all kinds of poor behavior that didn't reach the public eye. I don't think we have to go the route that Texas is a special snowflake that holds coaches to a higher standard of conduct. Or if we do, I feel like we should at least be able to present a list of coaches with similar circumstances that were kept on.
  20. They decided we were winning too much and needed to go back to the Strong/Herman era. The Horn logo on the neck is overly busy trash.
  21. Y’all are all actually right … 21-21 at half. Put the ball on the carpet twice and one punt in the next 15 mins. That’s pretty much the game. If instead Texas is making plays then we are talking about two heavy weights going at it. Next chance was the last two drives. Texas didn’t make the plays. That’s pretty much it - two stretches of the game Texas had to make plays, they didn’t. To win it all you have to make the plays - all game long. For 15 in the 3rd and 7 mins in the 4th Texas didn’t. Toughness got Texas close but not close enough.
  22. Eagles play Bucs. Could lose. Rams go to Lions. Rather Rams beat Lions. We beat Pack at ATT, rams would go to SF and Bucs come here. If Rams win and we beat Bucs then champ game at att.
  23. That is a tough fucking schedule. We might be a much better team next year and still only get 10 wins. Going from wildcard to #1 seed in the conference is one of the toughest things to do in sports.
  24. None of Dallas’ four wins over winning teams came away from the Death Star. Thankfully, we don’t have to go on the road the first two weeks.
  25. This. Same principle at work as when all the blue hairs got bent about our opening video this season with the overweight rapper with his shirt off. Notice how it only lasted one game before they changed it to only show him with his shirt on? That lasted one game and then he was totally removed We are a bunch of pearl clutchers We took the easy way out by letting him go after privately telling him it would blow over. Then we compounded the mistake by getting bullied into hiring RT. Tired of seeing comments that we had no choice. I know for a fact that when RT was made interim there was no thought about hiring him. We always have choices. Some are hard, and some are easy. We made two easy choices and now look at where it put us. I understand that not everyone thinks firing Beard was a mistake. I respect that. But, the only reason we had to hire RT was because the powers that be let circumstances dictate our actions as opposed to getting control of them and taking the path that was best for the program. I also don’t buy the argument that RT saved the season. That was a mature, talented and veteran team that was much easier to put in a position to win. Donewald had the offense in a much better place than Haith has it now. RT sealed his fate when he brought in Haith to effectively run the program as a comfort hire. I think that we have some good players but they are not being utilized in a way to maximize what they do well. We were flat out coached last night.
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