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  1. The analysis is simple: root for Alabama, Oregon, Iowa, and Louisville. Assuming Texas wins: 1. Louisville wins, we in; 2. Iowa wins, we in and Big 10 left out; (not going to happen unfortunately) 3. Oregon and Bama win; becomes a 3 team beauty contest that we have some pretty compelling arguments on, 2 of the 3 get in. I think Texas and Bama has a higher chance than the other configurations in this scenario, but only marginally so. Absent chaos, a non-champ isn't getting in. And there aren't going to be 2 teams from the same conference, especially since all the teams up for that will have already played each other and sorted out who deserves to go.
  2. Oregon wins, Bama wins, Iowa wins, Louisville wins. Any one of those things MIGHT get us in, though FSU losing almost definitely will. But going by how these things have gone this year none lf those will happen and we will be #5. But at least we would finally have a conference championship and a bright future ahead of us.
  3. Texas can jump Oregon this week in the rankings but it would make no difference if Oregon beats an undefeated Washington on Friday and Texas beats oSu. Oregon would go right back over us as their win is better than ours. FSU losing is our only path. Bama winning doesn't help us. Bama or Oregon beating an undefeated is bigger than Texas beating a team that lost 3 games. I think Georgia is still out if they lose to Bama because then Texas has a win over the team that has a win against an undefeated team. But that doesn't change things if FSU wins out. It just shuffles who goes in between Bama or Georgia. Undefeated trumps one loss every time. People would be howling if FSU gets passed over should they win out despite all they went through. We would howl if Texas had gotten passed over because Maalik had to come get out two wins with Quinn being out.
  4. Yep. The way CDC handled the Herman termination and rollout of Sark was telling. It was obvious that we had professionals in charge, and CDC knew the assignment. He didn't tip his hand by terminating Herman and then broadcasting to the world that Texas had an opening. That alone allowed Texas to negotiate with some leverage. Sure, there were rumors that Herman was going to get fired, but that just comes with the territory at a school like Texas when the football program is underperforming. Nobody except those in the know knew that we already had Sark locked up when it came time to show Herman the door. Indeed, aggy had no plan - they just decided to shitcan Jimbo on a whim a few weeks ago and hoped it all worked out. That's a textbook case of magical thinking, and magical thinking almost never works out. Perhaps Elko will work out for them in the end, but I wouldn't take those odds. They're probably about the same as me winning the lottery and getting to sleep with Kate Upton.
  5. are they really going to bring Sargent back after getting shut out in quali and winning the world destruction championship? more reddit shit - this guy put together an awesome chart of the entire season a bunch of different ways: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/mateusz.karmalski/viz/F1ResultsTracker/Results this is why they can't roll with Checo next year: median quali position of 9 - behind VER, HAM, ALO, LEC, NOR, SAI, RUS and just barely ahead of PIA. and that includes quali in the top 3 in 4 of the first 5 races. another cool graph: look at the FER drivers dropping 1.7 spots on avg between quali and race. stroll maybe just sucks at quali and is a better race driver than we give him credit for. OCO and GAS show what we all know, which is GAS is better at quali and better in race. wonder how big the gap would be if he didn't get fucked multiple times by his own team's strategy... another reason SAR is probably toast. 17x out in Q3. Zhou better be glad he brings the $$$ because he was out 15x. 9 podiums for Checho in the RB19 is is absolutely pathetic - 4 in the first 5 races and 4 in the next 17 and 1 in the last 8 races of the year?! Norris had 7 in a car that was objectively a shitbox for like a third of the season. --- dude points out that sprint races had 0 impact on WDC and WCC: https://old.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/184xwbs/sprint_had_zero_effect_on_drivers_and/
  6. I didn’t really pay that much attention. Sorry if pre season rags aren’t my standard. We all thought this was a 9-10 win season preseason. Once the Bama game concluded we ALL shifted to CFP aspirations. QE has played well enough for us to be there. One defensive stop away and we win still an outside shot going into championship weekend. Pretty fucking stellar if you ask me.
  7. Honestly don’t know what to think about this game, as a team we’ve been all over the place this season. I don’t think we have a chance, but seems like every time I’m sure we’re going to take a beating we somehow pull out a win. I’m going to the game, but the fact that my kid really wants to go to Great Wolf Lodge and has never been to the stadium plays into the decision. Pokes usually travel well, so there should be quite a few “good orange” fans in the seats, even with the stupid high ticket prices. I think y’all are set up to counter any of our offensive weapons, and our defensive secondary has been suspect all season, but dammit I still have high hopes! (And low expectations)
  8. It doesn't look good for it to hold, however, that's really if you only look at it as in some way decisive, which it isn't. Much like Bakhmut last year, the Russians will have sacrificed untold thousands and lots of critical equipment to win what is in reality smoldering ruins in a place that isn't overly tactically important (though it is considered a road into Donetsk). If the Ukrainians are able to get out with minimal casualties, given the amount of punishment they have inflicted, I wouldn't say it's really a huge loss. If you look at the conflict in totality, the question you have to ask is losing Avdivvka worth it if at the same time you can take the remainder of Kherson and cut Crimea? I think the answer would be easily yes, and that's exactly what is happening. The Russians diverted lots of manpower in an attempt to take this area, and in turn it would appear that the Ukrainians are taking full advantage (Mind you, I don't expect the results of these to things to timed to each other). The reality is that Putin has lost 300k plus people, a good 50% of Russia's ground capability, around 40% of his air capability, a significant chunk of the Black Sea Fleet, and much of his munition stores in order to take what amounts to 1.5 Oblasts (of course none of that takes into account economic losses incurred). The 2 Oblasts in the far east Russia more or less controlled prior to last years invasion. He only has part of Kherson, and with everyday that gets more tenuous at best. In essence, imagine if we invaded Mexico, and 2 years later we had those kind of losses (add to it the home of the Pacific Fleet in San Diego being untenable), and all we had to show for it was Chihuahua? That's actually fairly close to where they are at. I wish like hell there was a quick a way the Ukrainians could have a decisive strike that won this and put it to bed for good; but unfortunately we don't live in that world. In reality, making strategic trades are going to be part of this. In this instance again, the quote seems to apply, "We are so very lucky they are so fucking stupid".
  9. Yes, it’s basically due to rankings inertia where Oregon won in dominant fashion for a few weeks while we escaped with wins and that essentially set the pecking order going forward. Oregon didn’t give them any reason to question their initial relative ranking of them and Texas so it hasn’t changed. With a game against Washington it’s hard to see that changing after this week. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO.
  10. I don’t understand how Oregon is consistently ahead of us. We have better resume as far as wins go. SOS is in our favor. Common opponent they barely beat and we PUMMELED. I don’t get it
  11. So, my semi-actual thoughts on this hire. My thoughts are…Elko’s OK? Which is good, because this was going to be the hire all along until Ross Bjork gave into the intrusive thoughts regarding Mike Stoops. There’s no doubt Elko can run a defense, as he’s shown at every stop he’s been at. And he is not a “Chief” type DC on the downswing. He took Duke to 22 PPG in 2022 and this year is second in the ACC at 19 PPG. HC chops, you have to give him an incomplete. Objectively, you have to say that anyone who gets Duke to a 9-4 record had a good year coaching. You’d have liked to see them hold or take a step forward this year to feel really good about him. He walked into a gift with Riley Leonard and you wonder how they’d be if he stayed healthy, Duke does not have a lot of depth. You can stay at Duke a long time at 7-5 and everyone is happy. From what he’s shown, he’s able to put a competitive team on the field, win most of the games he’s supposed to win, but there is a big step up to championship levels that most people don’t make and prior records at mid-tier schools aren’t a predictor. He hasn’t shown he can do that. I do think there is a sense of urgency to keep some of the talent on campus (more later) and so that’s why assistant hires will be key here. It’s a no-brainer to leave Robinson in place if he’ll stay. He can coach the DL, he can recruit, and hopefully Elko taps him as DC with a lot of oversight. After that….a lot of meh. Addazzio needed to be gone last year. Durkin plays a different style and is an awful person. Petrino was a step up from Jimbo calling plays, but Elko needs to change culture and does he want Petrino knocking around Bright? Likely not. The biggest issues that Elko faces is that he is walking into a worse situation than Jimbo in 2018. Less money. Lots of recent embarrassment. A toxic locker room culture. And Texas is coming with their dick swinging into the SEC instead of aimlessly floundering in a dying Big 12. Which means that if you want to get things past 8-4, you need to make some moves NOW before the narrative is written in stone. And a big part of that is, yes, keeping as much of the 2022 class around as you can. He’s fortunate the strength of the team will be on defense. His immediate job is to hit the portal for offensive linemen that can play now and for someone to fight with Henderson for QB2, and convince Weigman that he’s in better hands than he was with Jimbo. I think Evan Stewart is gone, but there will still be some good WR talent available. And then he needs to do a couple things with the 2024 season. First, he’s got to win games on the road, which was Jimbo’s undoing. No losing stinkers in Starkville or Columbia and ideally you win one of Auburn or Florida. And you can’t lose to Arkansas. The toughest games next season are at home. Second, he can’t get embarrassed at home. Aside from the cupcakes (no monster like App State looming), we get: Notre Dame, Mizzou, LSU, and Texas at home. We can easily go 0-4 against that slate, and if we do it’s going to be a big hole to climb out of because that means we likely also are taking some bad road losses. He really needs to get one good win from that group and can’t get blown out in the others. Ideally, he manages to take down Mizzou and one of LSU or Texas and then everyone will forget the growing pains with Notre Dame. I am not optimistic that happens. If he manages to get us to 9 wins including a bowl, I think that’s close to the ceiling and will give him some breathing room. But we can just as easily lose all four of those and drop a couple on the road and finish 6-6 and if that happens then he might never get the opening he needs to really build something.
  12. PSA: Texas as a 1 loss conference champion is not going behind a 1 loss non conf champion. Especially Georgia, when the 4 major criteria they follow are: 1. Conference Championship (Adv Texas, and Texas would own a road win over the SEC champ) 2. Head to head (Not applicable) 3. SOS (Adv Texas) 4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas, we would have beaten Bama on the road and UGA would have lost at a neutral site) And before anyone tries to say best loss, that argument collapses on itself because their "best loss" is to a team we beat. Texas may not go in front of Bama or UO, that is debatable. But OSU, UGA, and Washington arent going in front of us.
  13. But you said, Texas was "fucked" if Washington loses or Georgia loses. Implying you think Texas wont go over either team. Is that your stance? You specifically wrote that the only way we get in is with FSU losing or Iowa losing and UW and GA winning. Anything else and we would be "fucked".
  14. Keep ‘em coming - the Yormark and McGuire memes and vids - not only are they well deserved, most of them are hilarious. 🤣 Now that the Tech/UT series is officially over - or at least paused - I wanted to take a minute to say thanks to you Horns for letting all us “outsiders” hang out here and the various other versions of the site. I hope the welcome sign stays on going forward. I’m not gonna look it up but you all know how lopsided this series history has been. And in the handful of Tech wins that have occurred, none have approached a 50 point beatdown. I say that to say that that’s why it’s always seemed to be a bigger deal to Tech than to UT - or as y’all like to say, “Tech’s superbowl” - because frankly, it was a big deal. It happened so rare. Tech’s next 5* recruit will be their first so I’ve always found it amusing the disdain you Horns had regarding this. Winning is hard. Winning at an elite level is even harder. Few programs can do it and sustain it. So when you hear the fans of the remaining schools say they aren’t gonna miss UT and OU, it’s not meant as an insult, it’s more like one big giant exhale. It’s a completely new landscape now full of new challenges. I’m gonna be real curious going forward to see: a) how the parity of the new Big12-4+2+4-2+4 plays out over the years. We got a taste of it this year. It’s gonna be highly entertaining but 10-2, 11-1, or 12-0 seasons will probably be rare. b) how the concentration of the blue bloods into fewer conferences shakes out as well - they can’t all go undefeated, right? (I know, the expanded playoff now means that they don’t have to) I say all that to say that this Techsan wishes you all well and to remember that there’s one thing neither of our schools will ever get tired of... Guns Up!!
  15. I think if that happens, Texas goes over Bama. So long as we look dominant against OSU (which we should). There are consequences to losing games and Bama lost to us head to head in their house. We 1000% should go in front of them and the SEC should be blocked out of the playoff. This isn't the ideal scenario, I would much prefer FSU to lose, but if they do not, this is our next best shot. To be honest though, Bama looked like steaming shit against Auburn and I expect them to lose by double digits to Georgia. So I think this will all be moot. For us to get in, we are going to need Louisville or Iowa (lol) to win. Full stop.
  16. Stick to watching pac 12 games. How about the 38-30 beauty contest against tech. The only reason Oregon was ahead of us initially bc they throttled a ranked colorado team and a ranked Utah team that were both farces. With no common opponents, being mid way through the season… strength of schedule didn’t come into play and we also had our back up qb. It’s going to be totally different. Is Oregon’s win against a team they lost to going to be better than our road win against #3 Bama? Nope. Will Oregon have a better strength of schedule? Nope. Will Oregon have beaten more ranked teams? Nope. Will Oregon have an advantage in common opponent? Nope. You’re simply relying on an eye test. If Texas wins another game 40-17 or along those lines…. Then I’m not sure the committee will be able to find any reason to keep Oregon in front of us.
  17. Despite all the wackiness in yesterday's games, there were zero surprise outcomes and certainly none that did Texas any favors. I said a few weeks ago I wasn't going to worry about CFP scenarios and that I was going to be happy with winning the Big 12 Championship and anything beyond that was gravy. I also didn't think we had a team that could win it all anyways. I'm not sure I believe that last part anymore. Let's hope the chaos we nearly got this weekend happens next weekend -- go Iowa (LOL), go Bama (maybe), go Oregon (I guess -- they'll win, I'm nearly certain of it) and especially go Louisville (FSU is nowhere near a CFP-worthy team with no Jordan Travis). I guess we'll likely need two of those to pop for us to get in if we beat the Pokes unless Iowa pulls off a miracle against Michigan. That would eliminate the Big 10 from the conversation. (EDIT: Louisville beats FSU should do the trick.)
  18. Y'all need to quit arguing about Oregon. Per the metrics we should be ahead of them but the committee has made their choice and nothing that happened this weekend or will happen next weekend will move the needle. They're going to stick their guns on this one, especially with Nix in the Heisman conversation. Only way we jump them is with a Washington win in the PAC CCG and they pick up a second loss. The eventual PAC12 winner is in either way. Our only realistic paths in at this point: 1. FSU loses - we're in OR 2. Bama wins - we're in
  19. I agree that Oregon is going to clobber Washington and if we barely beat Okie Lite we have a problem. However, don't underestimate what we did to Tech last Friday - that's the Pac 12's best non conference win and it doesn't look very good. That said, Oregon's one loss was on the road to a team they would have just beat and we'd have no chance to rectify our loss to OU. So I understand why Oregon might get in over us should we both win. It's very close though and not the foregone conclusion everyone makes it out to be. The other thing is I don't understand why everyone thinks Georgia is in no matter what. Their best win is at home over Ole Miss. Their non-conference schedule is a joke. They aren't getting the benefit of the doubt if they lose next week. (they probably beat Bama regardless so this is likely moot)
  20. I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games. I also grew up a Horn fan. If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+ TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG. Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. Lanning has been anticipating this and has been very slow to pull starters in blowouts.But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at
  21. It might depend on how the games go - but I'm suspecting that this is exactly what will happen if Texas, Bama, UO and FSU win if UO wins close against UW and we whip osu. It lets them avoid dealing with both leaving the SEC out and putting Bama over Texas. For the record - I think UGA smokes Bama.
  22. They don't say margin of victory isn't considered. They say without incenting margin of victory. I read that to mean the same as the old BCS computers when they put the cap on computers considering anything beyond 21 points in MOV. Essentially that's not saying that a 1 possession win and a 7 possession win are the same- it's saying we aren't going to dabble in figuring out if a 35 point win is a bigger deal than a 45 point win.
  23. Why would double digit win a on the road vs a top 8 team matter? Why the fuck would it not? Texas is the only team to win in Bama by double digits since Saban arrived. I am pointing out that information changes throughout the year. Your point of view is the inherent flaw in rankings. One of the reasons the PAC gets respect this year is due to early wins over TCU and Florida. Neither of those teams are going bowling this year, so those wins should mean little now. Unfortunately, people are stubborn. They have a hard time adjusting their opinions, when information changes. Perhaps hubris will stop the Committee from following their written guidelines, but we shall see.
  24. Not gonna argue semantics. UCF with Plumlee isn't that bad. The conditions were poor, and they didn't run Ollie into the ground. They need Ollie going wild for them to be competitive offensively. Defensively, my main concern would be their defensive front getting pressure on Quinn. I think we could run the ball 66% of the time and give Quinn wide open throws 33% of the time and win this game by 20+
  25. The committee has a guidelines they apparently follow. Conference champions head to head common opponents eye tesr - There is absolutely no way a 1 loss Bama team is going to jump Texas if they beat UGA. The committee would then be telling all of college football that head to head doesn’t count. None of the other teams have beaten a CFP team and they would be leaving out Texas that has already proven to have beaten one in this scenario. Bama needing a fucking miracle to beat a TERRIBLE auburn team is also going to shut down the Bama is better now talk. Bama and Oregon winning out creates chaos with nearly multiple 1 loss teams. UGA, Bama, Oregon, Washington, tOSU would all have 1 losses in that scenario. This favors Texas in ng opinion. We just need to throttle okie lite.
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