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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 12:18 PM, NoName said:

Want to make sure I understand the DB board and what positions guys are either expected to fill or we just think they will fill...

CB:

  • Ethan Pouncey
  • Kitan Crawford

Joker:

  • Jerrin Thompson (right position?)

outstanding offers: 

  • Kelee Ringo (CB)
  • Rogers (CB)
  • Kimber (CB)
  • Eaton (CB)
  • Ransom (S, either joker or field safety)
  • Alford (field safety)
  • Chris Thompson Jr (NB?)
  • Bryson Washington (field safety?)
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CTJ is a Joker. Thompson could end up at any of field, boundary, or Nickel. Ransom has similar versatility, but not Joker. Washington would likely be field or boundary. 

I hope we stay on CTJ because he’s an ideal Joker fit and there’s not a ton of those each class. 

  On 8/12/2019 at 12:39 PM, Machinator said:

Wiltfong is trying to get himself a source at Texas, I see.

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Not that we needed confirmation that Wiltfong has 0 information on the Texas side, but this it. 

This piece did remind me though about Htownhorn’s bloviating rants about how  Wiltfong knows nothing and he’s an SEC shill because he said things like Florida is in it for Rogers and Auburn is a real threat to land CTJ. lulz. 

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Posted

Yeah, people should probably let the CTJ flip fantasies go. I'm not sure how often schools get Dickerson'd these days, but I'm guessing the percentages there are pretty fucking small, and even smaller when the school getting dicked isn't aTm. 

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 12:51 PM, Burt Macklin said:

 

CTJ is a Joker. Thompson could end up at any of field, boundary, or Nickel. Ransom has similar versatility, but not Joker. Washington would likely be field or boundary. 

I hope we stay on CTJ because he’s an ideal Joker fit and there’s not a ton of those each class. 

 

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thank you!

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 12:55 PM, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, people should probably let the CTJ flip fantasies go. I'm not sure how often schools get Dickerson'd these days, but I'm guessing the percentages there are pretty fucking small, and even smaller when the school getting dicked isn't aTm. 

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hard, hard, hard disagree.

if he is as much of a fit as basically everyone says, you stay on him until the moment he signs. 

this would be the case if he was a commit to A&M, but when you consider it is Auburn (distance, could have a bad year, coaching changes could v easily happen, friends going to Texas, etc) it makes even more sense.

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 12:58 PM, NoName said:

hard, hard, hard disagree.

if he is as much of a fit as basically everyone says, you stay on him until the moment he signs. 

this would be the case if he was a commit to A&M, but when you consider it is Auburn (distance, could have a bad year, coaching changes could v easily happen, friends going to Texas, etc) it makes even more sense.

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I didn't say Texas should stop recruiting the guy. I said that this board should stop entertaining the notion that a flip is going to happen. Pretty big difference there, chooch. If a miracle happens and for some reason we get a 180 like with Robinson, well, YeahFuckYeah.gif. But Robinson was a clean recruitment. 

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 12:55 PM, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, people should probably let the CTJ flip fantasies go. I'm not sure how often schools get Dickerson'd these days, but I'm guessing the percentages there are pretty fucking small, and even smaller when the school getting dicked isn't aTm. 

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Optimism would stem from Malzahn potentially getting fired. He has a massive buyout, but their schedule is brutal and it could get ugly, especially since their best QB is probably a true freshman. 

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:09 PM, Fud said:

Optimism would stem from Malzahn potentially getting fired. He has a massive buyout, but their schedule is brutal and it could get ugly, especially since their best QB is probably a true freshman. 

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I understand all of the circumstances surrounding Auburn and CTJ.

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:12 PM, SydneyCarton said:

I understand all of the circumstances surrounding Auburn and CTJ.

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Then I don't understand why you're calling it a miracle. All bets are off when a coach is fired. And there's a clear avenue to his firing. 

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:09 PM, Fud said:

Optimism would stem from Malzahn potentially getting fired. He has a massive buyout, but their schedule is brutal and it could get ugly, especially since their best QB is probably a true freshman. 

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How much of a Chance is there really of him being fired though? I know a lot don auburn fans and boosters want home gone every year, but After this season he’s still guaranteed like 36 or 30 million, I believe. 

I know Auburn and the SEC schools don’t give a shit about anything but football, but that’s an astronomical number when you factor in the cost of acquiring a new coaching staff on top of it. 

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 12:55 PM, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, people should probably let the CTJ flip fantasies go. I'm not sure how often schools get Dickerson'd these days, but I'm guessing the percentages there are pretty fucking small, and even smaller when the school getting dicked isn't aTm. 

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Depends on the season imo. If the boosters want Malzahn gone, they could easily decide to pull the plug on his recruiting. Even if he isn't fired they could end up crippling him to keep him on the hot seat. 

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:13 PM, Fud said:

Then I don't understand why you're calling it a miracle. All bets are off when a coach is fired. And there's a clear avenue to his firing. 

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I'm not going to pretend to know what accepted protocol is for kids who have been bought by a school when the coach is then fired. But personally, I'm guessing there is still significant pressure to stay committed. That's why it seems unlikely to me. Maybe I'm wrong and they're free to do whatever the fuck they want, but I'm guessing there's some hard conversations that take place. Again, I didn't say the staff should stop recruiting him. I said this board should probably not get their hopes up. 

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:16 PM, Burt Macklin said:

How much of a Chance is there really of him being fired though? I know a lot don auburn fans and boosters want home gone every year, but After this season he’s still guaranteed like 36 or 30 million, I believe. 

I know Auburn and the SEC schools don’t give a shit about anything but football, but that’s an astronomical number when you factor in the cost of acquiring a new coaching staff on top of it.  

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I think it's $27mm after this year. But we're talking about arguably the most irrational school/program/fanbase in college football when on tilt, and the SEC prints money and they'd be able to prorate the buyout over the length of the contract. 

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:16 PM, Burt Macklin said:

How much of a Chance is there really of him being fired though? I know a lot don auburn fans and boosters want home gone every year, but After this season he’s still guaranteed like 36 or 30 million, I believe. 

I know Auburn and the SEC schools don’t give a shit about anything but football, but that’s an astronomical number when you factor in the cost of acquiring a new coaching staff on top of it. 

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Despite all of the smoke around Malzahn, this last deal really handicapped their ability to actually fire him. If they fire him, he's owed 75% of his remaining salary. Unless they plan to Beatty him, we can expect Gus in Auburn for awhile - at least until 2022

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:16 PM, Burt Macklin said:

How much of a Chance is there really of him being fired though? I know a lot don auburn fans and boosters want home gone every year, but After this season he’s still guaranteed like 36 or 30 million, I believe. 

I know Auburn and the SEC schools don’t give a shit about anything but football, but that’s an astronomical number when you factor in the cost of acquiring a new coaching staff on top of it. 

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The university isn't worth $30 million.

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:09 PM, SydneyCarton said:

I didn't say Texas should stop recruiting the guy. I said that this board should stop entertaining the notion that a flip is going to happen. Pretty big difference there, chooch. If a miracle happens and for some reason we get a 180 like with Robinson, well, YeahFuckYeah.gif. But Robinson was a clean recruitment. 

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what actual reasonable person here (key word, reasonable), is expecting a flip? 

 

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:24 PM, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Despite all of the smoke around Malzahn, this last deal really handicapped their ability to actually fire him. If they fire him, he's owed 75% of his remaining salary. Unless they plan to Beatty him, we can expect Gus in Auburn for awhile - at least until 2022

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  On 8/12/2019 at 1:25 PM, Ricky's one-hitter said:

50% due up front, the remainder over 4 years

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That's a lot of money. They're also irrationals with little brother syndrome who are given a lot of money.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/25900708/sec-schools-get-431m-revenue-sharing 

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:31 PM, Fud said:

given a lot of money.

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Right, but they dont get a check every year and wonder what to do with it. That money is budgeted out before it hits the account. 

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/auburn/2019/02/05/auburn-university-athletic-department-record-revenue-decrease-profit-2017-18-ncaa-finances-report/2777036002/

  Quote

Auburn reported an operating excess of $7.8 million. It marks the fourth straight year the athletic department has been profitable after two years in the red, but also the least amount of profit during that stretch — the university made $9.2 million in 2014-15, $15.2 million in 2015-16 and $14.6 million in 2016-17.

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Ain't nobody got 13M laying around. We'll see how much the boosters hate him.

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:42 PM, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Right, but they dont get a check every year and wonder what to do with it. That money is budgeted out before it hits the account. 

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/auburn/2019/02/05/auburn-university-athletic-department-record-revenue-decrease-profit-2017-18-ncaa-finances-report/2777036002/

Ain't nobody got 13M laying around. We'll see how much the boosters hate him.

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That's the thing, they're irrational and won't necessarily do what makes sense from the outside. If the season goes down the drain, which has a decent probability given their difficult schedule (#12 on a neutral field, @ #11, vs #12, @ #8, @ #6, vs #3, and vs #2) I think it's plausible they'll go in the red for the year to get rid of the guy they wanted to get rid of last year. 

Posted

Even if they don't fire Malzahn, it only takes one bagman getting upset to stop making payments or pull a job offer. 

From Godfrey's article: 

It's also how lame duck coaching staffs are created. If a majority of bag men want a particular coach out and an A.D. or president won't make a move, they'll just dry up funds.

"The coach won't know exactly when we decide to make that happen, but they've got a good idea. Then we get to see just how damn good a recruiter he really is. I know one of our guys once stopped putting in big bucks, way more than what I do, just because a head coach cussed too much on the team plane. [The coach] was losing anyway, but because he took the Lord's name in vain, that guy was offended by his morality and stopped illegally paying college football players."

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Posted (edited)
  On 8/12/2019 at 2:05 PM, Bodacious Bevo said:

From Godfrey's article: "The coach won't know exactly when we decide to make that happen, but they've got a good idea. Then we get to see just how damn good a recruiter he really is. I know one of our guys once stopped putting in big bucks, way more than what I do, just because a head coach cussed too much on the team plane. [The coach] was losing anyway, but because he took the Lord's name in vain, that guy was offended by his morality and stopped illegally paying college football players."

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Taking the moral high ground while contributing payments with all the cheating and lying they entail.

Edited by Mdhorn
Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:16 PM, Burt Macklin said:

How much of a Chance is there really of him being fired though? I know a lot don auburn fans and boosters want home gone every year, but After this season he’s still guaranteed like 36 or 30 million, I believe. 

I know Auburn and the SEC schools don’t give a shit about anything but football, but that’s an astronomical number when you factor in the cost of acquiring a new coaching staff on top of it. 

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They nearly fired him last season.  If they go 6-6 and get blown out by Bama, there's no way they don't fire him.  

Posted

IT

  Reveal hidden contents

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 2:39 PM, Beau Vine said:

They nearly fired him last season.  If they go 6-6 and get blown out by Bama, there's no way they don't fire him.  

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Yep.  Their schedule is tough.  It's going to be the Auburn/Aggy chronicles to see who beats whom to stay above .500.  

Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 4:34 PM, Scholz said:

I think Alford is the prize, Eaton is the bait, Ransom, Rogers, Washington and CTJ are the pipe dreams.

So yes, take both.

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Eh. I wouldn’t call either guy a prize. Eaton is high ceiling, low floor. Alford is high floor, low ceiling. They’re both decent prospects that would give us a good not great DB class. I’d probably prefer holding out for a late riser and/or flip of 2 of Rogers, Washington, CTJ, but that could obviously lead to a 2019 RB situation. The difference IMO is that we’re stacked at S and solid at CB, so we can take more risks there than we should have at RB last year.

 

I’m not sure there’s really a bad option either way. It does sound like if we want him, we can get Eaton. Not so sure on Alford, but I guess we’ll find out soon.

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 5:08 PM, Burt Macklin said:

Eh. I wouldn’t call either guy a prize. Eaton is high ceiling, low floor. Alford is high floor, low ceiling. They’re both decent prospects that would give us a good not great DB class. I’d probably prefer holding out for a late riser and/or flip of 2 of Rogers, Washington, CTJ, but that could obviously lead to a 2019 RB situation. The difference IMO is that we’re stacked at S and solid at CB, so we can take more risks there than we should have at RB last year.

  

I’m not sure there’s really a bad option either way. It does sound like if we want him, we can get Eaton. Not so sure on Alford, but I guess we’ll find out soon.

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I appreciate the idea that if we're going to miss at CB and S this cycle, we should miss long.  I also think that we've pretty obviously already missed long, after striking out on CTJ, Ransom, Jahari, and Ringo.  Adding in a flier pick on Eaton and taking Alford, who would provide nice depth in the short term makes good sense--especially since the 2021 class is not as obviously stacked as prior years.  If Eaton/Alford/others get recruited over, DBs don't usually sit around clogging up a roster.

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Posted
  On 8/12/2019 at 5:11 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

Those 3, Collins, and Jordan and numbers begin to get tight if 20 really is the target.  A high school linebacker would be nice. 

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Princely, Collins, Jordan, Alford, Eaton, and Johnston brings the class to 281.30 composite score. That's about 6 points behind our score last year and leaves a couple spots for LVBS/Hester and this mythical 'high school linebacker' you mention. Adding LVBS and Josh White would be 286.96. 

My rule of thumb is that a score of 285+ is a great class. It generally lands you in the top 5 or right outside of it (that's how it looks this year). 300 is excellent, top 3ish level, and can be a foundation for a championship (our 2018 class was 300.06). 

Regularly scoring 285 while hitting 300 every couple years should be plenty to win a lot of games i.e. compete for the conference and playoffs annually with credible championship aspirations every couple years.

Posted (edited)
  On 8/12/2019 at 5:13 PM, Katfid54 said:

I appreciate the idea that if we're going to miss at CB and S this cycle, we should miss long.  I also think that we've pretty obviously already missed long, after striking out on CTJ, Ransom, Jahari, and Ringo.  Adding in a flier pick on Eaton and taking Alford, who would provide nice depth in the short term makes good sense--especially since the 2021 class is not as obviously stacked as prior years.  If Eaton/Alford/others get recruited over, DBs don't usually sit around clogging up a roster.

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Yeah, like I said, I’ll be fine either way. If the staff wants to wrap up DB recruiting with Eaton and Alford, I won’t have any complaints, though I’d still love to get CTJ at that point because he’d Be the only potential joker of the group. 

  On 8/12/2019 at 5:32 PM, Bodacious Bevo said:

Princely, Collins, Jordan, Alford, Eaton, and Johnston brings the class to 281.30 composite score. That's about 6 points behind our score last year and leaves a couple spots for LVBS/Hester and this mythical 'high school linebacker' you mention. Adding LVBS and Josh White would be 286.96. 

My rule of thumb is that a score of 285+ is a great class. It generally lands you in the top 5 or right outside of it (that's how it looks this year). 300 is excellent, top 3ish level, and can be a foundation for a championship (our 2018 class was 300.06). 

Regularly scoring 285 while hitting 300 every couple years should be plenty to win a lot of games i.e. compete for the conference and playoffs annually with credible championship aspirations every couple years.

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Yeah. At one point this class seemed like it could be a 300 class, but a few misses and low numbers changed that. If we can get to 300ish next year, that would be an extremely good 4 year run. 

The other nice thing is that the staff has shored up weaknesses in previous classes each year, like RB and DL in 2020. By the time the 2020 guys get to campus, this roster will have almost no holes and it will just be a matter of how many guys turn into stars. Once the 2021 guys get to campus, the roster will be absolutely stacked with talent like w heavens seen since 2005. 

Edited by Burt Macklin
Posted (edited)
  On 8/12/2019 at 1:22 PM, Fud said:

But we're talking about arguably the most irrational school/program/fanbase in college football

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Imma let you finish and all, but: 

 

  On 8/12/2019 at 5:11 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

A high school linebacker would be nice. 

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I was under the impression recruiting linebackers was not allowed under NCAA rules?

Edited by gmr548

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