Texas Recruiting Notes 2020

[texifornia 56,526]

2 minutes ago, Sabalo said:

Since he's on an European vacation I assumed Muesli

Früt Lüps and Capitaine Couranche?

[texifornia 56,526]

2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Having great QBs and therefore winning a bunch of games isn’t super unique or the result of some super secret formula that isn’t replicable at Texas.  That’s how it works for just about everyone.  Nick Saban winning MNCs with total JAGs at QB is the super unique thing.

Now that we have the Playoff, aren't they just NCs?

[Huckleberry 32,703]

Now that we have the Playoff, aren't they just NCs?

Nope. Not until it's impossible to go undefeated and not win the championship.

[sushihorn 3,233]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I already argued that Clemson’s practices aren’t replicable. And, they’re not. They’re also not Texas. They’re doing less with more and the Swinney process works. For them.

I agree that Dabo does more with less.  Tom Herman also has a record of doing that though not at the top level yet.  He beat OU and FSU with top 60 recruiting classes at Houston.  The talent remaining on campus in 2018 was likely borderline top 20 excluding the true freshmen.  They played like it at times but they also thumped much more talented teams in Southern Cal and Georgia.  They split with a CFP bound OU. 

 

Quote

As shit related to OU, how in the fuck are you making your post, ignoring the transfer impact of the two key players, as well as tuning out JUCO guys, and expecting us to take your viewpoint seriously.

JUCOs are already accounted for in recruiting rankings.  You might argue that they are undervalued but they aren't ignored.  As for the OU transfer QBs you have a point but again it's not a major impact on the rankings.  Baker Mayfield was a low 3-star coming out of HS.  If he'd signed with OU originally that would have LOWERED their class ranking.  It was superior evaluation by Tech and OU.  Kyler Murray was top rated so let's see what would have happened to rankings if he had gone to Norman out of HS.

Murray's 247 composite score was 0.9855.  OU's 2015 class averaged 0.8820 in a class of 29.  Adding Murray would have brought the average of that class up to 0.8855.  In terms of ratings, Murray would have barely moved the needle for 2015, not moving the average per recruit more than one spot for that year.  Over an 8 year period that impact would be a rounding error.  Including Mayfield and Murray in OU's signing classes would have almost no effect - which is a demonstrated weakness of recruiting rankings.

That's one reason I'm not stressed over #6-10 vs top 5.  Georgia was a clear top 5 talent pool.  USC was also a top 5 talent pool with classes ranked #2, #10, #4 and #4.  Both were not just beaten but DOMINATED by a Tom Herman team that was far less talented on paper.  Top 10 every year and top 5 half the time ought to produce a really good team under this coaching staff.  With back to back #3 classes that seems like the floor right now.

[NorLa Horns 1,458]

On 7/18/2019 at 10:27 AM, Burt Macklin said:

Easy there, bizarro Katfid. They look nothing alike.

 

 

dude needs to learn to keep his left up, so he wont get his nose pushed over that way. -voice of experience

[jinx 2,635]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

You’re a smart guy and a good poster, but this post is unmarinated tripe. It looks and smells bad, but it undoubtedly tastes worse. 

I already argued that Clemson’s practices aren’t replicable. And, they’re not. They’re also not Texas. They’re doing less with more and the Swinney process works. For them. 

As shit related to OU, how in the fuck are you making your post, ignoring the transfer impact of the two key players, as well as tuning out JUCO guys, and expecting us to take your viewpoint seriously. 

What the fuck is wrong with you, here?

So, the Mack Brown method

[Vertigo 20,267]

3 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

[futureman 22,415]

4 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I already argued that Clemson’s practices aren’t replicable. And, they’re not.

what are they doing in practice that other teams aren’t

[Vertigo 20,267]

1 minute ago, futureman said:

what are they doing in practice that other teams aren’t

Cheating dumbass

[futureman 22,415]

1 hour ago, texifornia said:

Now that we have the “Playoff”, aren't they just NCs?

fify

[futureman 22,415]

2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Cheating dumbass

in practice?

[texifornia 56,526]

FYI after Gilesfest 2019

 

[Cairn Horn88 8,183]

7 hours ago, texifornia said:

To be fair, no one gave a shit before Lance either. Cycling is just really boring without a once-in-a-lifetime story around it.

Do I have to give back my yellow jersey?

[SaucyJack 3,487]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

That's one reason I'm not stressed over #6-10 vs top 5.  Georgia was a clear top 5 talent pool.  USC was also a top 5 talent pool with classes ranked #2, #10, #4 and #4.  Both were not just beaten but DOMINATED by a Tom Herman team that was far less talented on paper.  Top 10 every year and top 5 half the time ought to produce a really good team under this coaching staff.  With back to back #3 classes that seems like the floor right now.

GOTDAMMIT,  how the fuck can you not account for the fact that Georgia did not want to be there and it was NOT NC.

USC had 3 guys almost drown and 2 others traumatized by an earthquake!   Your better than this; quit being so obstinate!

 

[Henry Hill 3,156]

54 minutes ago, texifornia said:

FYI after Gilesfest 2019

 

<aggy> tay hue is barely beating out iowa and the other georgia team. stupid sips aren’t back. </aggy>

[Fondren & Main 6,670]

5 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Obviously, it's better to get top 5 classes every year than not, and Clemson's formula isn't that damn complicated.  They had Deshaun Watson at QB in those years they were going to the playoffs and competitive with Alabama despite having classes ranked in the teens.  Then they had Kelly Bryant at QB with even better talent around him, made it to the playoffs coming out of a really weak ACC with FSU, Miami and Va Tech all cratering at the same time, and proceeded to get dominated by Alabama in the playoff.  Clemson put up no more of a fight that year than Michigan State and Washington in previous years.  Then they brought that team back with Trevor Lawrence at QB, and they beat the shit out of everybody.

Superstars at certain positions - especially QB - outweigh just about everything else.  And being really terrible at those positions can sink an otherwise decent roster (see Garrett Gilbert and Ash/Case leading Texas to a .500 record from 2010-2011 with top 10 defenses both years).

Having said that, stop using post-2007 Mack and Charlie classes at Texas as evidence that mere top 10 classes just aren't good enough to do anything and you have to be in the top 5 every year.  We have had plenty of recruiting classes look great on paper in the last 12 years, but our ROI on nearly all of classes before 2018 were pathetic and not at all representative of what a typical top 10 class produces.  For example, in 2012 (Jonathan Gray year), we had the number 2 ranked class in the country, and it was a big class with 28 signees.  Of those 28, 4 of them were actually good players, and one of those four transferred.   Two - of 28 - finished their careers at Texas and were drafted by the NFL.  That's more like a number 60 ranked class from the dregs of the P5 schools, but it was ranked number 2.   

Charlie's 2016 class that was ranked number 7 is the same story.  Again, we signed 28 guys, and only 2 of them are likely to be drafted.  An absurdly high percentage of the class wasn't even at Texas by the end of their second year.   That class was sandwiched between Georgia and Michigan in the recruiting rankings.  In reality, its peer group was teams like Texas Tech and Arizona. 

You can put together a damn good program with a string of typical number 7 classes strung together.  Herman's emphasis on culture fit alone is going to produce a big improvement over our late Mack and Charlie "top 10 classes" that included a bunch of highly rated flakes, and I'm hopeful he will reel in the elite players to really put us over the top.  He is doing pretty well in that regard so far overall, even if there have been a few weak links we all know about.  

You wrote a lot of words and I’m not gonna read them all...

[Fondren & Main 6,670]

1 hour ago, SaucyJack said:

GOTDAMMIT,  how the fuck can you not account for the fact that Georgia did not want to be there and it was NOT NC.

USC had 3 guys almost drown and 2 others traumatized by an earthquake!   Your better than this; quit being so obstinate!

 

Georgia was too busy sucking my dick!

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

3 hours ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

I think ctj has a point that OU is also a super unique situation in that they had 2 heisman winning QBs + Hurts transfer in (plus they haven't had the talent across the board to win a CFP game yet). He just went full ctj in communicating it. 

Never go full ctj.

[BigBenBamboozle 1,950]

No other poster tickles my pickle quite like sushihorn. Sunshine analytics! 

[IllHaveWhatRickysHaving 28]

2 hours ago, Henry Hill said:

<aggy> tay hue is barely beating out iowa and the other georgia team. stupid sips aren’t back. </aggy>

Laughed way too hard at "tay hue" 

[closetojumping 62,246]

6 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Having great QBs and therefore winning a bunch of games isn’t super unique or the result of some super secret formula that isn’t replicable at Texas.  That’s how it works for just about everyone.  Nick Saban winning MNCs with total JAGs at QB is the super unique thing.

Now, the point that the transfers didn’t show up in OU’s recruiting rankings is one thing.  But the broader discussion about playoff success not being replicable at Texas without top 5 classes every single year is a different matter.  How could anyone ever crack Dabo’s super secret formula of getting the best QB in the country and watching him go off in the title game?  We’ve never seen that at Texas.  No, it must be a super proprietary program building system that is the real explanation for why Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence could win MNCs with fewer 5 stars on the roster than Alabama.

No one has argued that a title can’t be won with less than all top 5 classes. No one has argued that having amazing QBs doesn’t help. The original discussion was around what should be expected at Texas. You defended Macon Brown’s recruiting on Shaggy for years when I and others were expressing concern that the rankings weren’t matching the evaluations, so of course you’d recall that it’s not only about rankings. The reality is that the expectation should be top 5 classes at Texas. Being satisfied with anything less is accommodating mediocrity or it’s an unusual year. Every known advantage to a college recruiter exists at Texas. Whether it can be done with less or not is a non sequitur. 

As to Clemson, you show your ignorance by pinning it on QBs and nothing else. They’ve had amazing coaching and continuity in the coaching staff. They have a great doping program. They have elite cheating processes that are highly targeted. They are excellent evaluators. They’re tireless. They have lower transfer numbers than most schools. They take less guys most years and they’ve built to replenish, never to rebuild. Guys commit and virtually never, ever decommit. They’re about to sign the greatest class since the 25 man scholarship limit was put into place. But yeah, sure dude, it’s all about Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence. 

[closetojumping 62,246]

6 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Sushi horn is one of the best posters on this board and your bizarre attack on his post, which was fine, says more about you than him. Lighten up Francis.

 

He made a weak post. It happens. I’m sorry it hurt your feelings and makes you mad at me. Whatever horrible shit it says about me being some kind of big meanie, I’ll sadly have to take to my grave and live with the shame until then. 

[closetojumping 62,246]

6 hours ago, sushihorn said:

I agree that Dabo does more with less.  Tom Herman also has a record of doing that though not at the top level yet.  He beat OU and FSU with top 60 recruiting classes at Houston.  The talent remaining on campus in 2018 was likely borderline top 20 excluding the true freshmen.  They played like it at times but they also thumped much more talented teams in Southern Cal and Georgia.  They split with a CFP bound OU. 

 

JUCOs are already accounted for in recruiting rankings.  You might argue that they are undervalued but they aren't ignored.  As for the OU transfer QBs you have a point but again it's not a major impact on the rankings.  Baker Mayfield was a low 3-star coming out of HS.  If he'd signed with OU originally that would have LOWERED their class ranking.  It was superior evaluation by Tech and OU.  Kyler Murray was top rated so let's see what would have happened to rankings if he had gone to Norman out of HS.

Murray's 247 composite score was 0.9855.  OU's 2015 class averaged 0.8820 in a class of 29.  Adding Murray would have brought the average of that class up to 0.8855.  In terms of ratings, Murray would have barely moved the needle for 2015, not moving the average per recruit more than one spot for that year.  Over an 8 year period that impact would be a rounding error.  Including Mayfield and Murray in OU's signing classes would have almost no effect - which is a demonstrated weakness of recruiting rankings.

That's one reason I'm not stressed over #6-10 vs top 5.  Georgia was a clear top 5 talent pool.  USC was also a top 5 talent pool with classes ranked #2, #10, #4 and #4.  Both were not just beaten but DOMINATED by a Tom Herman team that was far less talented on paper.  Top 10 every year and top 5 half the time ought to produce a really good team under this coaching staff.  With back to back #3 classes that seems like the floor right now.

Yes, we all know the Herman story and what Texas’ record was in 2018. That’s a weak analog to Swinney’s tenure at Clemson, but if it works for you, great. 

The rest of the post veers to fantasyland. The discussion wasn’t about what rankings would have been had those players orginally committed to OU. You attempted to argue that OU was kicking ass with lower ranked players while completely not addressing a) significant transfers that played critical roles in driving on-field results and b) whistling past the JUCO component, which you know fully well is undervalued in recruiting and is also a key part of OU’s recent success. 

The bottom line is that if you guys want to argue that lower ranked classes, on the whole, aren’t that big of a deal if a coaching staff happens to be superior at talent evaluation and coaching, so that’s just fine at Texas, then, great, cross your fingers. I’d rather see elite talent be identified, targeted, and signed, then developed and coached up. Herman is doing the latter. The rest of this shit is academic to the original point.

[closetojumping 62,246]

10 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I defended Mack Brown for years?  That’s news to me.  I’m actually usually too reactionary, and I was calling for him to be fired after the WSU Holiday Bowl in 2003, the OU shutout in 04 (I was way wrong on those), and then again constantly starting with the Iowa State loss in 2010 until he was fired.  Then I bitched nonstop about Charlie needing to be fired after the Arkansas and Notre Dame debacles.  Then I said Herman and Ehlinger were trash after Maryland last year.

And I think just a couple of weeks ago, whenever it was you last tried to make up a history to personalize whatever disagreement you thought you had with me, you said I have always been a malcontent.  At least that one was kind of true.  But a Mack Brown sunshine pumper? That’s just lazy. You’re losing your edge, pal.  Ask futureman to help you with your material.

Also, we are either massively inflating program heights and weights, or we really do have guys making  outrageous gains with their bodies in one offseason under Herman to a much greater extent than previous regimes.  So, I wouldn’t bet the farm on us being so different from Clemson or other top programs in the culture department.

I didn’t say you were a Mack Brown sunshine pumper. I said you defended what was happening in recruiting under him when some of us weren’t thrilled. It’s easy to dismiss now, but you were ardent on Shaggy that Taylor Doyle was a take, even in a wheel chair, while defending Mac McFuckingWhorter’s overall OL recruiting. Maybe it was all mostly to just bitch at me, since I’m like acid in your mouth. It’s funny history either way.

Regarding better doping and being more Clemson-sequel, good. Fucking great. If Tommy can Hermancipate us from wandering the wilderness because he discovers the Clemson model is exactly what longhornmatt promised him - easily replicated - I’m all for it. 

[Wishbone 4,739]

5 hours ago, futureman said:

in practice?

To be really effective at cheating, yes, you have to practice it.

[sushihorn 3,233]

51 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The rest of the post veers to fantasyland. The discussion wasn’t about what rankings would have been had those players orginally committed to OU. You attempted to argue that OU was kicking ass with lower ranked players while completely not addressing a) significant transfers that played critical roles in driving on-field results and b) whistling past the JUCO component, which you know fully well is undervalued in recruiting and is also a key part of OU’s recent success.

I'm simply responding to your statement that Texas needs a top 5 recruiting class every year.  That wasn't an ambiguous statement on your part at all.

I agree that those rankings can be flawed which is PRECISELY why I put the QBs into the ranking structure that YOU demanded be used.  Now you want to come back and attack the rankings and pretend it's some sort of disagreement with me.  You are all over the place here and not making much sense at all.  I've responded to your statements point by point while trying to avoid making it personal.  But this is really reaching the point of absurdity.

[mr. sunshine 2,824]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

You defended Macon Brown’s recruiting on Shaggy for years 

I think it’s spelled Macon Bacon

[closetojumping 62,246]

2 hours ago, sushihorn said:

I'm simply responding to your statement that Texas needs a top 5 recruiting class every year.  That wasn't an ambiguous statement on your part at all.

I agree that those rankings can be flawed which is PRECISELY why I put the QBs into the ranking structure that YOU demanded be used.  Now you want to come back and attack the rankings and pretend it's some sort of disagreement with me.  You are all over the place here and not making much sense at all.  I've responded to your statements point by point while trying to avoid making it personal.  But this is really reaching the point of absurdity.

I said the expectation should be top 5. I referenced the difference between that and top 10 is a difference maker or two every year. I referenced Texas having every advantage and anyone expecting less is excusing a UT staff of falling short. I also referenced reasons for exceptions. 

At some point, you intervened with the premise that the rankings don’t exactly equal success and cited a couple of exceptions. One was Clemson, which has been address ad nauseum at this point. Then you cited OU getting into the playoffs without having high rankings while ignoring the QBs that transferred in and impacted the entire program trajectory. Then you attempted to “what-if” their impact on prior rankings and decided that that somehow had a point. Parker Braun had a shit ranking out of HS. Should we act like we don’t have an expectation of him now as an impact player for us in 2019 because his ranking back then wasn’t accurate? Is it your view that Texas shouldn’t hit top 5 classes every year but for exceptions due to occasionally small classes? 

I’m sure you refuted something point for point. I’m just not sure what it is. If this continues to devolve into some scenario where you want to debate that rankings don’t matter or want to go player by player in a class over multiple classes, you’re going to have to find someone interested in the pedantry.  I’ll stay firm on the premise that the rankings matter, and I’d prefer to see Texas stacking top 5s versus alternative scenarios. No shit there are exceptions, as there are with every maxim. 

[BigHorn'13 3,355]

17 hours ago, Butch Had Not said:

If you are inferring violence that's always a possibility but whistleblowers have to assume risks inherent to their cause. 

But the point stands,  it takes one connected individual with nothing to lose a la David stanley or some 995 schmuck and a media outlet or reporter with some teeth to expose what we know is going on and hopefully the power of social media can jumpstart the real media similar to rapelor and zach Smith. 

 

You already have your guy. He's no longer in the biz, has an axe to grind with everyone and exposes it all on a podcast. What more are you asking for?

 

[Leanderman 2,267]

I just will be so glad once the off season is over. 

[KYHorn 16,865]

Machinator hoping one of you will get even slightly off recruiting  

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

23 minutes ago, Leanderman said:

I just will be so glad once the off season is over. 

That’s what we said the past two seasons. Then Maryland happened, and we missed the offseason.

[Machinator 32,097]

28 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Machinator hoping one of you will get even slightly off recruiting  

I'm just trying to figure out if "Macon Brown" is code for something.

[cochamps 1,879]

7 hours ago, BigBenBamboozle said:

No other poster tickles my pickle quite like sushihorn. Sunshine analytics! 

I won a bowl picking contest because I bought into his breakdown of UT - Georgia.  What can your analytics do for me?

[BigDSteve 56]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I said the expectation should be top 5. I referenced the difference between that and top 10 is a difference maker or two every year. I referenced Texas having every advantage and anyone expecting less is excusing a UT staff of falling short. I also referenced reasons for exceptions. 

This is an interesting point. How many teams believe they have the structural advantages that they should expect to be Top 5 every year?

I would think USC fits the list.  Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson certainly would make that case. That leaves programs like LSU, FSU, Florida, Michigan, and Penn State off the list. Each of those programs can make a very similar argument as to why they should be Top 5 every year as Texas. 

[texifornia 56,526]

2 minutes ago, BigDSteve said:

This is an interesting point. How many teams believe they have the structural advantages that they should expect to be Top 5 every year?

I would think USC fits the list.  Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson certainly would make that case. That leaves programs like LSU, FSU, Florida, Michigan, and Penn State off the list. Each of those programs can make a very similar argument as to why they should be Top 5 every year as Texas. 

Clemson doesn't. That's what makes Dabo's tenure so special.

Penn State and Michigan suffer from the depopulation of the rust belt, and having less of a national presence as OSU (just for football, obviously).

FSU and UF cannibalize each other but one of the two should always be in there. 

LSU if anything has an easier road to the top 5 than Bama or UGA.

[Machinator 32,097]

Miami?

[billfromlaketravis 11,362]

27 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Clemson doesn't. That's what makes Dabo's tenure so special.

Penn State and Michigan suffer from the depopulation of the rust belt, and having less of a national presence as OSU (just for football, obviously).

FSU and UF cannibalize each other but one of the two should always be in there. 

LSU if anything has an easier road to the top 5 than Bama or UGA.

This, but Saban routinely picks LSU's pocket. I still think LSU has the easiest path. The in state talent is incredible and usually loyal to Bayou Bengals. No in state competition at all. Plus LSU has hundreds if not thousands of Katrina move outs living in Texas to pick from. 

LSU just has to exist to recruit to well. 

Edited July 21, 2019 by billfromlaketravis

[TommyGufano 6,021]

Tbh, Texas is truly the only one. We're the only school with the media in our back pocket conspiring to boost our recruits' rankings. BOMC, baby

[Vertigo 20,267]

11 minutes ago, TommyGufano said:

Tbh, Texas is truly the only one. We're the only school with the media in our back pocket conspiring to boost our recruits' rankings. BOMC, baby

Clearly you have never read the Liucci 44.

[Radical Larry 28,529]

[texifornia 56,526]

Just now, Radical Larry said:

 

Milroe or Davis most likely. Time for '21 to get rolling.

[Butch Had Not 2,940]

1 minute ago, Radical Larry said:

 

Doesn't matter we're not SECSECSEC.

[Radical Larry 28,529]

Milroe or Davis most likely. Time for '21 to get rolling.

Yeah that’s seems more likely than a 2020 commit.

[texifornia 56,526]

Just now, Radical Larry said:

 

Yeah that’s seems more likely than a 2020 commit.

 

I suppose Lindberg or Collins could be it as well, but yeah the '21 guys feel more imminent.

[Chili dog 1,787]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

Miami?

You’d think so, based on their location. It’s a private school, so they can hide paper trails more easily than most. We have so much freaking money, though, and such a massive, wealthy alumni base. I don’t know where they fall on that metric. I do know their facilities traditionally lag well behind the rest of the blue bloods. 

[Stampeder 92]

Just now, texifornia said:

I suppose Lindberg or Collins could be it as well, but yeah the '21 guys feel more imminent.

Get enough of the top '21 guys jumping on board and it might actually help with the '20 class as well

[VaHorn 105]

1 minute ago, Chili dog said:

You’d think so, based on their location. It’s a private school, so they can hide paper trails more easily than most. We have so much freaking money, though, and such a massive, wealthy alumni base. I don’t know where they fall on that metric. I do know their facilities traditionally lag well behind the rest of the blue bloods. 

When you draw 21,000 to a game on a good day, it is hard to keep up. 

[jdhorn92 1,538]

3 minutes ago, Stampeder said:

Get enough of the top '21 guys jumping on board and it might actually help with the '20 class as well

Good point, id like for it to be Collins.

[VaHorn 105]

8 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

I defended Mack Brown for years?  That’s news to me.  I’m actually usually too reactionary, and I was calling for him to be fired after the WSU Holiday Bowl in 2003, the OU shutout in 04 (I was way wrong on those), and then again constantly starting with the Iowa State loss in 2010 until he was fired.  Then I bitched nonstop about Charlie needing to be fired after the Arkansas and Notre Dame debacles.  Then I said Herman and Ehlinger were trash after Maryland last year.

And I think just a couple of weeks ago, whenever it was you last tried to make up a history to personalize whatever disagreement you thought you had with me, you said I have always been a malcontent.  At least that one was kind of true.  But a Mack Brown sunshine pumper? That’s just lazy. You’re losing your edge, pal.  Ask futureman to help you with your material.

When CTJ can’t formulate a cogent argument, he makes shit up.  On the plus side, making shit up is responsible for most of his greatest victories. You know, when he alone saw the light and spoke the truth against a chorus of baying sycophants. That is how he rolls.