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Texas Recruiting Notes 2020

Reese Bennett

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irishtexan

irishtexan 11519

Posted
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54 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Tommie Frazier should have been a 5-star recruit, regardless of whether or not he had any NFL potential. 

I'd be interested to see Fong's answer when presented that hypothetical - "retrospectively, how would you rank Tommy Frazier or Colt McCoy? would/should they have been five stars? and if so, how does that square with your rankings based solely on NFL draft potential?"

 

31 minutes ago, Fud said:

Jones is like Erick Young; if you know he's playing safety or nickel in college, he's a top ten prospect in the state. If he's playing out of position at corner, he's probably more like top thirty. 

BUT WHERE WILL HE BE DRAFTED?!?!?!?

 

 

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Boerne Horn
Boerne Horn
truthbringerlrac
truthbringerlrac

just tired of losing recruits to colleges oozing with beautiful thots while ut only has nerdy awkward thots to present to recruits........fun fact malik jefferson was getting clowned on ig by other re

Txsbigeasy1
Txsbigeasy1

for you anything!  

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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Random poster: This continues to destroy the credibility of the rankings. Factoring in where you think a kid will be drafted is comical and leads to the rankings being biased.

Charles Power: biased towards what? If you look at the NFL Draft, there's obvious value in picks- if there wasn't you wouldn't have smart teams work to accumulate draft capital. The draft is obviously an inexact science as is any subjective player evaluation. But it's one of the few instances where there's a uniform value assigned to each player at a static point in their career. It's the most analogous scenario to what we're doing, so it only makes sense to mirror that process as best we can.

Another poster: I don’t care about the NFL. I care about what the kids are going to do the next 3-4 years in college.

Wiltfong: You should care about your team having a bunch of NFL players on it because their next 3-4 years in college will result in a lot of wins.

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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4740

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1 minute ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Wtf is vodka Tom referencing? And why would you choose that over a hookers and blow comment?

Two years ago every dolt on TOS was calling Kevin Sumlin "Rumlin" and the like. It's just a derisive moniker aimed at Herman because he likes to party, no different than our treatment of Sumlin.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54230

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49 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I'll spoiler this because it doesn't relate to Texas recruiting, but some ATM fan is absolutely incensed that Simmons would dare suggest Omeire is a TE and compare him to one:

 

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What stands out to you about Conyers on tape? Have you ever witnessed a 2A DII football game in Texas and know the level of athlete he's competing against on tape? He doesn't separate from those kids playing WR, what makes you think he can do that at an elite level in college or NFL? He qualified for the state track meet in triple jump and that's it. He runs a 24.2 200M (SLOW), Omeire runs a low 22.4. I'll give you he "may" be a hair more fluid than Omeire, but 500 spots more fluid, not a chance man. I honestly don't see Troy as a top 200 kid and i think he could grow into a TE, but his drop is insane and the rise of Conyers is insane and makes no sense. Again, you are projecting Conyers, as the #45 player in the country, who you haven't seen live, who plays horrible competition, who doesn't do anything special on tape and who isn't a special athlete. Yet you are willing to project him as an NFL TE but you won't on a kid who is a better athlete, has better tape, and numbers against light years better competition? Have some consistency Bart, that's all people ask. And don't act like you are the smartest person on earth and hype your "date and projection" if you aren't willing to take it all the way. If you think Troy is a TE, rank him as such, and rank him accordingly.

 

To be fair, he's right about Conyers. 

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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14 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I'd be interested to see Fong's answer when presented that hypothetical - "retrospectively, how would you rank Tommy Frazier or Colt McCoy? would/should they have been five stars? and if so, how does that square with your rankings based solely on NFL draft potential?"

 

Somebody asked the Jason White question:

Q: Also, I’m gonna ask a question about a guy like Jason White who wasn’t drafted. If you guys had ranked him as a 3 star, would you be satisfied with that ranking because you projected his draft position correctly, and disregard the fact he won the heisman?

Wiltfong: Yes. 3stars can be great players. But they clearly are a product of overachieving or a friendly system or great players around them more than their raw talent if they don't get drafted. We feel like the star system should be a measure of talent and then coaches/teams can overachieve or underachieve with that talent. But nothing better quantifies how much talent they had than the NFL Draft.[/spoiler]

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Ricky's one-hitter

Ricky's one-hitter 9115

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The inherent problem with this method is the variation in utilization of talent and the shifts in NFL “prototype”. 10 years ago, dual threat qbs could not project to a 5* because they can’t fit as pocket passers. So you’re not ultimately making a judgement of talent or even potential talent, you’re making a judgement of what mold a player best fits in and criticizing the gaps in the mold.
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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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Poster: I’m a college football fan. Why do I care about where a kid is drafted? Guys wouldn’t make you look so stupid if you focused on ranking guys on how they’re gonna perform in CFB.  “Quantifying their talent” is done on the field in college. I couldn’t care less about how it translates to the NFL or which stupid GM is gonna reach for the big dude that can run/jump but can’t make a play. You guys doing this for actual CFB fans or to impress some random NFL front office?

Charles Power: the idea that the draft doesn't quantify college success doesn't make sense. Every Heisman winner in the last 12 years but Derrick Henry has gone in the first round. Take a look at PFF's top college players from last season- the majority of them were or will be top 100 picks. and the few who won't are lacking in measurables https://www.pff.com/news/college-top-101-best-college-football-players-in-2018

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, texifornia said:

It's the obsession with positional fit.

I can see players getting docked for that if you’re looking at NFL projections, but it should hurt less than poor testing. 

A productive tweener like a big safety that tests well will generally get drafted higher than a productive prototypical safety that runs a 4.8.  The drop is overdone based on that. It’s especially overdone if they possess enough foresight to see where football is moving. A safety in big nickel is almost a base player now, let’s see in 4 years. 

All in all though I think they do a decent job. Some individual players are gonna fall through the cracks and get misranked.

It’s all part of getting to 1000 pages

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Sock Monkey

Sock Monkey 722

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The fact that those guys cannot see that NFL teams draft according to scheme fit as opposed to collegiate production concerns me. Every year you see top collegiate players that are deemed to not have what it takes to make it in the NFL for whatever reason as well as guys who under produced but project highly for the NFL. Universities care more about wins and championships than what round their team leader is drafted in. Certainly someone smart could come up with a stat equal to baseball's WAR. 

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8311

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This line of thinking is how people like Burton can keep their job after ranking LJH as the worst player in his class. “SEE! HE WENT UNDRAFTED! I WASN’T FAR OFF!”

The NFL draft emphasizes physical attributes and de-emphasizes football ability regularly. I don't think it's informative to project that a high school kid that's big and fast and strong now will still be big and fast and strong in 4 years. Maybe you'll happen to be right about the football part a little more than half of the time doing that, but that's not accurate enough to thump your chest over.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14682

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6 minutes ago, Sock Monkey said:

The fact that those guys cannot see that NFL teams draft according to scheme fit as opposed to collegiate production concerns me. Every year you see top collegiate players that are deemed to not have what it takes to make it in the NFL for whatever reason as well as guys who under produced but project highly for the NFL. Universities care more about wins and championships than what round their team leader is drafted in. Certainly someone smart could come up with a stat equal to baseball's WAR. 

The successful NFL teams draft based on scheme fit. There are a lot of shitty teams that take the best player available that is not capable of playing in the schemes you run.

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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32 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

The successful NFL teams draft based on scheme fit. There are a lot of shitty teams that take the best player available that is not capable of playing in the schemes you run.

Gonna have to disagree for the most part.

Sure if teams play cover 2 they will draft players that play better in off coverage etc, but the best teams will focus on the best talent. 

Here’s an example from the best team around. Patriots drafted Damien Harris from Alabama in the 3rd round even though they already have Sony Michel (1st rounder last year), James White, and Rex Burkhead. Didn’t need a RB.  Picked one pretty highly.  Get the best talent and sort it out. 

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Sock Monkey

Sock Monkey 722

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More often than not talent leads to production, but it is common enough for high performing college players to be deficient in the athleticism or build that the NFL is looking for that recruit rankings should not be an attempt to project the draft. If anything, NFL fans are not the consumer base for recruiting sites. The fact that these guys would rather argue with their paying customers instead of adjust their approach is moronic. 

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Goodman

Goodman 3273

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2 hours ago, Machinator said:

Some comments from 247 mods on the new rankings:

 

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Question: I appreciate all the work y’all do, but I just don’t see how there are 9 players in Texas better than Jase McClellan (and this a Texas fan talking about a Sooner commit) and 11 better than Ja’Quinden Jackson.

Wiltfong: I see your point and as of today you're absolutely right. But we're also projecting them down the road based on where we think they'll get drafted. Those are two guys we like in that regard as well, McClellan is projected as a 2nd rounder and Jackson is as well... Actually I just opened our Texas Top10 and while I see your argument, those guys ranked ahead are pretty damn intriguing too for arguing right now as well. Some really good-looking prospects at the top of the board in the Lone Star State this cycle.

Q: Man Steve, Ja’Quinden was one batted down Hail Mary away from taking down the team many had as the “national champion” of high school football. Jase McClellan has beasted and feasted the best Dallas has to offer ever since he was a freshman (2000 yards and 47 TDS last year) and might be even better than his cousin Johnathon Gray who was a 5 star himself. I understand some of those guys ahead of them are chalk full of potential, but I mean what else are they supposed to do?

Wiltfong: That's the beauty of it right?! The debate of sports. I for one was on the table for Jase but when you look at the other guys you have to see there is an argument for them too.

Q: Who would you move down below [Jase and Ja'Quinden]? Texas has a pretty solid top 10 this class.

Charles Power: agree. McClellan is a very productive HS player who always tests well (and a little faster than he plays on the field IMO) but there are some strong OL (Hayes, Anderson) and a small school prospect like Conyers in Texas in this cycle who might not get the TXHSFB pub of some of the skill players. Others like Jaylon Jones, Smith-Njigba were fantastic at The Opening. ith Ja'Quinden Jackson, you're still talking about a top 75 prospect. No doubt he has a very high ceiling, but we need to get a better grip on his floor as a QB, and hopefully will see an increased sample size from him as a passer this fall. He's one I'd have liked to see at the Elite 11 Finals to see how he stacks up in that setting.

Q: Can someone explain Omeire drop to a three star?

Wiltfong: He's a big body that isn't a separator as a route-runner and doesn't have the fluidity that you'd like to see. We've found that size absent a certain skill threshold doesn't necessarily translate to elite on the next level. Omeire still has the look of a really good college football player but we like others better as long term upside guys.

Q: So you dropped [Omeire] to 697?

Wiltfong: In the grand scheme of things that's still pretty good. Put him on and put Parker Washington on and see which one you like better?

Q: 3* Mike Evans and Brandon Marshall say hi

Wiltfong: Yes. There will be a lot of 3stars that hit it big. Maybe Omeire is one of them. What we are trying to do is make the four-stars the guys we have the most conviction about. 3stars are still guys that we think are good players that we can see hitting.

Q: Jimbo and Craig did put their tape on. They liked Omeire. So did most other programs in the country.

Wiltfong: When we drop a guy in the rankings, it rarely means we think a school shouldn't have taken him.

Q: 47’s reasons for having only 32 five stars is a myth. There should be as many five stars as whatever amount meets the criteria, whether it’s 16 players or 45.

Wiltfong: It's not a myth. We clearly say it's because there are 32 picks in the first round and the draft is the standard we use to judge our work. The draft is the day recruiting rankings are incredibly relevant.

Q (some Texas fan): Mmmmm sure I mean it’s really about getting 1st rounds picks right so you can push the top 32 narrative if we’re all being honest here

Wiltfong: We take a lot of pride in our Top32 for sure. Hopefully we hit on guys like Overshown and Tyler Owens and Jalen Green down the road.

Barton Simmons: I grade and track every NFL Draft pick. It's something we put a lot of time and effort into and it's something we try to learn from. it's why we've been the most accurate relative to the full NFL Draft every year since I've been tracking it.

Q: I've always been curious why you don't just constantly rank whoever is in the top 32 as "composite 5 stars." For instance, Reggie Grimes is the #32 player in the country per the composite. Why would he not be considered a composite 5 star right now? Anyway, thanks for the work you guys do.

Wiltfong: The math used in the composite is over my head. I believe we typically have more 247Sports Composite five-stars than 32 but I'd have to go back and look.

Simmons: Composite rating is totally reliant on the rest of the industry. there is no set number of Composite 5stars.

Q: The first round draft choices consists of 3 stars, 4 stars, 5 stars, and sometimes lower. So there’s zero correlation with 5 stars and the NFL draft. 247 should have as many 5 stars that meets the 5 star criteria. Period!

Wiltfong: Of course but we're trying to get as many five stars as possible into that Top32 of the NFL Draft. If we batted 1.000 on it we'd all be millionaires in an NFL front office right now.

Q (same poster, you can guess which team he roots for): No sir. Please review this thread for all points and counterpoints

Simmons: I will fight to the death that projecting to the NFL Draft is the appropriate way to approach the rankings.

 

Tough guy Simmons while he's taking that 995. "Simmons: I will fight to the death that projecting to the NFL Draft is the appropriate way to approach the rankings."

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satyanash

satyanash 14485

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Clint Buckley: Texas offers 2020 four-star safety Jerrin Thompson

The Texas Longhorns have a new target in the 2020 recruiting class. The Horns reached out and offered four-star Lufkin safety Jerrin Thompson, he announced via Twitter on Tuesday night. Texas recently missed out on a couple of safeties in the current cycle, in Lathan Ransom and Bryson Washington, who committed to Ohio State and Oklahoma, respectively. The Longhorns, however, are still in the mix for Xavion Alford and Chris Thompson.

Thompson will be a three-year starter for Lufkin. He burst onto the scene with a monster sophomore season in 2017, racking up 95 tackles, five interceptions, and five forced fumbles. He added 90 tackles as a junior last year. Thompson, who holds offers from 17 programs, made spring visits to Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and TCU, and is reported to have interest in making a trip this fall to Notre Dame.

Texas seems like it would be a good fit for Thompson, considering its proximity to Lufkin. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the incoming senior on campus in Austin in the coming weeks. Thompson has indicated on Twitter that his recruitment is wide open. At 6-foot-0.5 inches and 183 pounds, Thompson is the No. 15 ranked safety in the nation and the No. 31 ranked player in the state of Texas, according to 247Sports Composite Rankings.

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