The Hex 2020- 2021

[JNip 132]

CONCACAF just created the dumbest WC qualifier ever created and it got us into the Hex without trying. 

 

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Concacaf Announces Format for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Confederation Qualifiers

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World Cup Qualifiers 

an hour ago

 

 

The redesigned qualifiers will determine the three and a half Concacaf representatives in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™

 

 

Miami (Wednesday, July 10, 2019) – The Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (Concacaf) today announced the format for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Confederation Qualifiers. The restructured competition will be composed of two parts, which will take place simultaneously during the FIFA-match windows in 2020 and 2021.
 
The first part of the Concacaf qualifiers, which will be played in a Hexagonal format, will be contested between the top six ranked Concacaf Member Associations based on the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020. After home-and-away round robin play during the FIFA Match windows of September, October and November of 2020 and March and September of 2021, the top three teams will qualify directly to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™. 

The second part of the qualifiers, played across a Group Stage and knockout phase, will involve the Concacaf Member Associations ranked 7-35 according to the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020. For the group stage, these 29 participating Concacaf Member Associations will be divided into eight groups (five groups of four teams and three groups of three teams). After home-and-away round robin play during the FIFA Match windows of September, October and November of 2020, the first-place finishers in each of the eight group will qualify for the knock out stage.
 
The quarter finals, semifinals and final matches of the knock out phase will all be played in a home-and-away direct elimination format, during the FIFA Match windows of March, June and September 2021.
 
The winner of the knockout phase will face the fourth-place finisher of the Hexagonal group to determine the Concacaf representative in the FIFA intercontinental playoff. The home-and-away playoff matches between the two Concacaf representatives will take place during the FIFA Match Window of October 2021.

“The love for the game in this region is growing rapidly and our diverse and dynamic communities want a clear pathway to world-class football.  Through our freshly designed formats — across FIFA World Cup Qualifiers, Concacaf Nations League and Concacaf Gold Cup — we are staging more competitive international matches than ever-before to help these communities fulfill their potential,” said Concacaf President Victor Montagliani. 
 
“This new FIFA World Cup Qualifying format, based on the FIFA rankings, makes every competitive match count.  Alongside the Concacaf Nations League, and our expanded Gold Cup, it will raise standards of play to unprecedented levels and develop the sport across the region.  Making the leading Concacaf nations stronger on the global stage, while giving our emerging footballing nations the chance to pursue their dreams of playing at a World Cup.”
 
The date, location and procedures for the draw which will determine the groups and match schedule for the Hexagonal will be announced later this year

Edited July 10, 2019 by JNip

[ATLLonghorn 1085]

I know the Hex is a long way off, but I'm curious in the interim how the FIFA rankings are going to change things. Currently the Hex would be Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Honduras, El Salvador. I kinda want to see Curacao get into the Hex.

[WBT 20884]

Lulz, the new format is because the US was in position to miss the hex after 3 match days last time.  We can't have that so we'll just take away all of the minnows' opportunities to play their way into it.

[JNip 132]

Haiti got to the semifinal, wonder if that will play into effect. 

[Huckleberry 34407]

Sounds like all the fringe teams between 5 and 8 in the last rankings need to analyze them to determine their best chance to accumulate points in the next year. They need to schedule matches against teams they think are overrated in the rankings or whom they match up well with. 

[Hagbard Celine 11161]

he Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (Concacaf) today announced the format for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Confederation Qualifiers. The restructured competition will be composed of two parts, which will take place simultaneously during the FIFA-match windows in 2020 and 2021.
 
The first part of the Concacaf qualifiers, which will be played in a Hexagonal format, will be contested between the top six ranked Concacaf Member Associations based on the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020. After home-and-away round robin play during the FIFA Match windows of September, October and November of 2020 and March and September of 2021, the top three teams will qualify directly to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™. 

The second part of the qualifiers, played across a Group Stage and knockout phase, will involve the Concacaf Member Associations ranked 7-35 according to the FIFA Ranking published after the FIFA window of June 2020. For the group stage, these 29 participating Concacaf Member Associations will be divided into eight groups (five groups of four teams and three groups of three teams). After home-and-away round robin play during the FIFA Match windows of September, October and November of 2020, the first-place finishers in each of the eight group will qualify for the knock out stage.
 
The quarter finals, semifinals and final matches of the knock out phase will all be played in a home-and-away direct elimination format, during the FIFA Match windows of March, June and September 2021.
 
The winner of the knockout phase will face the fourth-place finisher of the Hexagonal group to determine the Concacaf representative in the FIFA intercontinental playoff. The home-and-away playoff matches between the two Concacaf representatives will take place during the FIFA Match Window of October 2021.

“The love for the game in this region is growing rapidly and our diverse and dynamic communities want a clear pathway to world-class football.  Through our freshly designed formats — across FIFA World Cup Qualifiers, Concacaf Nations League and Concacaf Gold Cup — we are staging more competitive international matches than ever-before to help these communities fulfill their potential,” said Concacaf President Victor Montagliani. 
 
“This new FIFA World Cup Qualifying format, based on the FIFA rankings, makes every competitive match count.  Alongside the Concacaf Nations League, and our expanded Gold Cup, it will raise standards of play to unprecedented levels and develop the sport across the region.  Making the leading Concacaf nations stronger on the global stage, while giving our emerging footballing nations the chance to pursue their dreams of playing at a World Cup.”
 
The date, location and procedures for the draw which will determine the groups and match schedule for the Hexagonal will be announced later this year

 

TLDR/translation:

We decided to work backwards and eliminate the rest of the confederation after playing 30 games to eliminate 2 teams in the hex, but by god we WILL have US-Mexico home/away Full Internationals because like the Old Firm in Scotland, they're the only games that anyone from the rest of the world might watch.  We don't have to worry about 2026, unless the US Women give FIFA an excuse to pull it. (iswidt)  Which gives us almost 10 years to come up with an even more-batshit setup than this one to fix a US/Mexico home/away Full International series when we play the 2030 qualifiers for 48 teams, where we are likely to go from 3.5 slots to 8 or 9.

Did you see our new logo and branding?  Thanks Soccerhouse!

[Hagbard Celine 11161]

1 hour ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I know the Hex is a long way off, but I'm curious in the interim how the FIFA rankings are going to change things. Currently the Hex would be Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Honduras, El Salvador. I kinda want to see Curacao get into the Hex.

I would like to see 5 and 6 go in to the scrum and have a chance to fight their way back to the playoff against 4.

But still, the asshattery of determing 3 of 4 quailfiers 15 months before Qatar is unmeasurable with current technology.

[Captain Ron 13097]

I don't see how this helps anyone at all. A shitty as the FIFA rankings are handled, this takes away prime qualification games for teams like the US and Mexico. That was the point of the whole system before because it fattened up teams in points/rankings for the top teams to beat up on. Last go around the US and Mexico had 16 games in qualifying. Sure, 6 were in the 4th round, but it still gave them a chance to increase their rankings.

The old system really needed to be scrapped, but this is a step backwards, not forwards.

[Schulz2.0 29243]

28 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:

this is a step backwards, not forwards.

CONCACAF and USSF in a nutshell.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

2 hours ago, JNip said:

CONCACAF just created the dumbest WC qualifier ever created and it got us into the Hex without trying. 

 

That's shitty to the small teams. While they never win one of the full spots, they should still have a path to do so in the qualifiers. They shouldn't be topped out at the half spot. 

Also, they will lose some lucrative matches against the US and Mexico.  

[Knoxtnhorn 6262]

Unless I'm missing something, the only real change this has to teams like US and Mexico would be eliminating the off-chance that one loses the home-and-home round just before the Hex.  I could see some a scenario where either might have to play Haiti or Curacao in one of these sets and f up.  Well, not Mexico.

[Hagbard Celine 11161]

19 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Also, they will lose some lucrative matches against the US and Mexico.  

Same as it ever was, Full International, home and away.  No change.  For this cycle.

[Huckleberry 34407]

1 hour ago, Captain Ron said:

I don't see how this helps anyone at all. A shitty as the FIFA rankings are handled, this takes away prime qualification games for teams like the US and Mexico. That was the point of the whole system before because it fattened up teams in points/rankings for the top teams to beat up on. Last go around the US and Mexico had 16 games in qualifying. Sure, 6 were in the 4th round, but it still gave them a chance to increase their rankings.

The old system really needed to be scrapped, but this is a step backwards, not forwards.

With the 2018 changes to the formula this actually doesn't hurt as much as it would have before, possibly not at all. Let's take the 2018 qualifying fourth round that actually happened then plug in the current (pre-Gold Cup) FIFA rankings values

Points before the 4th round: USA 1495, TNT 1260, GUA 1072, SVG 954

USA 6, SVG 1 - USA moves from 1495 points to 1498 points, SVG from 954 to 951
GUA 1, TNT 2 - GUA from 1072 to 1064, TNT from 1260 to 1268

SVG 0, GUA 4 - SVG to 941, GUA to 1074
TNT 0, USA 0 - TNT to 1273, USA to 1493

SVG 2, TNT 3 - SVG to 936, TNT to 1278
GUA 2, USA 0 - GUA to 1095, USA to 1472

TNT 6, SVG 0 - TNT to 1283, SVG to 931
USA 4, GUA 0 - USA to 1477, GUA to 1090

SVG 0, USA 6 - SVG to 928, USA to 1480
TNT 2, GUA 2 - TNT to 1279, GUA to 1094

USA 4, TNT 0 - USA to 1485, TNT to 1275
GUA 9, SVG 3 - GUA to 1099, SVG to 922

Forgive the rounding. The bottom line is that the USA went 4-1-1 in the fourth round and in the new ranking system would have dropped from 1495 ranking points down to 1485. This reflects a drop from #30 to tied for #33. The new ranking system is better but has flaws, of course. There is no accounting for home versus road matches. This works out for the USA because we play a lot of home matches in the Gold Cup. We should work the system by also scheduling every friendly match between now and 2022 at home.

Limiting the top teams' opponents to the highest ranked teams actually helps in the new formula. The loss to Guatemala in the fourth round above made it literally impossible for the United States to increase their point total no matter what happened in their last 3 matches of the round. Last three matches were wins by a total of 14-0 and the final point total was still a drop of 10 points for the full fourth round.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Huckleberry

[FondrenRoad 4378]

A real fix would be to require members to be independent nations.  No good player from Guadeloupe is ever going to play for Guadeloupe primarily because every single person born there is a French citizen and there is no such thing as a Guadeloupan citizen.  Lilian Thuram is from Guadeloupe.

An alternative to that would be to put a West Indies team together.  They do it in cricket and are successful.

Lastly, Suriname, Guyana, and French Guiana (as long as non-nation states get to have national teams) need to be in CONMEBOL.  They are not in North America, Central America, or the Caribbean. We have enough minnows that are actually in our region.

[Huckleberry 34407]

3 hours ago, JNip said:

Haiti got to the semifinal, wonder if that will play into effect. 

Looks like they only passed T&T. Adjusted CONCACAF rankings after Gold Cup (napkin math):

 

[Huckleberry 34407]

By the way, the new system also helps the USA and Mexico because continental competitions are worth more than the Nations League. So the fact we have two Gold Cups every cycle is a slight boost. But even more interesting is this:

ORLY? If CONCACAF wants to do something right and game the rankings, then there's no reason not to make the Gold Cup 8 groups of 4 teams and then everyone advances to the knockout round, seeded based on group results. Then have it every year. Positive feedback loop would start shooting CONCACAF teams up the rankings. Just sayin'.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Huckleberry

[Huckleberry 34407]

Okay, so I'm having a little too much fun playing with the rankings. To show what an automatic pass this has made into the hex, if the USA loses all four of their CONCACAF Nations League matches to Cuba and Canada this coming fall, their FIFA point total will only drop from 1546 (calculated above after the Gold Cup) to 1499. I.e., there is almost no way to miss the hex.

I really don't think FIFA understands the ratings inflation that is going to happen due to that knockout round rule. As well as the penalty shootout rule (you get a 0.75 game score for winning a penalty shootout and a 0.5 game score - instead of 0.25 - for losing in a penalty shootout). They have guaranteed ratings points inflation with these ad hoc tweaks to the math.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Huckleberry

[Hagbard Celine 11161]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

By the way, the new system also helps the USA and Mexico because continental competitions are worth more than the Nations League. So the fact we have two Gold Cups every cycle is a slight boost. But even more interesting is this:

ORLY? If CONCACAF wants to do something right and game the rankings, then there's no reason not to make the Gold Cup 8 groups of 4 teams and then everyone advances to the knockout round, seeded based on group results. Then have it every year. Positive feedback loop would start shooting CONCACAF teams up the rankings. Just sayin'.

holy shit.  that's SEC ready.

[UDontKnow 10557]

5 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

A real fix would be to require members to be independent nations.  No good player from Guadeloupe is ever going to play for Guadeloupe primarily because every single person born there is a French citizen and there is no such thing as a Guadeloupan citizen.  Lilian Thuram is from Guadeloupe.

An alternative to that would be to put a West Indies team together.  They do it in cricket and are successful.

Lastly, Suriname, Guyana, and French Guiana (as long as non-nation states get to have national teams) need to be in CONMEBOL.  They are not in North America, Central America, or the Caribbean. We have enough minnows that are actually in our region.

You do realize that Guyana participates in selection for the West Indian cricket team, yes? Culturally, Suriname, Guyana, and French Guiana are closer to the Caribbean than they are to the rest of South America. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

19 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

You do realize that Guyana participates in selection for the West Indian cricket team, yes? Culturally, Suriname, Guyana, and French Guiana are closer to the Caribbean than they are to the rest of South America. 

What does culture have to do with regional sports groupings?  They are on the continent of South America. Tough to be more "South American" than that. 

Australia isn't in UEFA.  They are far more European in culture than they are Asian.