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My LSU @ Texas Analysis: The Overview

sushihorn

By sushihorn
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sushihorn

sushihorn 3,233

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Observations are based on last season and a bit of their spring game.  I've been working on this in my spare time for a couple of months.  The detailed unit breakdowns are not done yet but I wanted to drop this now since surly seems to be getting antsy with peak offseason in effect.

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LSU has some excellent athletes but not much better than Texas overall.  Starting with the 2019 recruiting class, LSU was ranked #5, #15, #7 and #2 nationally.  The Horns will field the #3, #3, #25 and #7 classes so their talent will be comparable but younger.  I have to give LSU the edge here because their upperclassmen are very highly rated and their DEVELOPED talent will be superior.

But the SCHEMES are very different and the most relevant comparison of players probably isn’t LSU v Texas but LSU v UGa.  From the 30,000 foot view those programs are very similar.  LSU’s recruiting is excellent but clearly below Georgia’s (#1, #3, #6 and #6 classes as of the 2019 Sugar Bowl).  Both run pretty conservative run-centric offenses with enormous offensive lines.  Georgia has more athletic OL and a much better passer at QB; Burrow’s mobility can only partially offset that.  The Bulldogs also had REALLY good RBs; LSU is good there but not in the same class.  WRs are a wash.  I’ll detail these areas in the breakdown of the offense. 

The bottom line here is that LSU’s offense is much less dangerous than that of UGa.  The only area of advantage is the QB’s ability to make some off schedule plays with his feet.  We have a fantastic defensive coordinator who majors in shutting down one-dimensional offensive schemes and LSU is a textbook example of that.  Their offense is not something to be greatly feared. 

The defense is really LSU’s calling card.  Their DC is outstanding and they can be VERY disruptive at times.  While they may have less talent on paper than Georgia, I expect them to do a better job of stopping drives.  LSU’s D creates a lot of sacks, TFLs and turnovers.  It’s the last that concerns me the most because turnovers and field position can make their pedestrian offense look effective.  For example the Tigers scored 36 points on Georgia but they needed a massive win in TO margin (+4) to do it.

The defense is very dangerous to LSU’s opponents and somewhat dangerous to themselves as their risk taking also means they give up big plays.  That risk-taking and high variance in possible results makes the range of potential outcomes much wider and the most likely result is less predictable than was the case against Georgia’s read and react style of D.  If LSU goes +4 in TO margin and doesn’t give up multiple big plays they win going away like they did against UGa.  For you stat geeks, I’d characterize LSU as a somewhat lower mean with a significantly higher standard deviation then UGa.  If they don’t get big plays from their defense and ST, I expect a comfortable Texas win.  If turnovers and the kicking game are fairly even, I expect a close win for the Longhorns.

People will say that the Longhorns have not seen this level of talent and technically they’d be right outside of the Sugar Bowl.  What those people ignore is that Texas has seen equal or better schemes on the defensive side of the ball from TCU and ISU.  The Horns have seen FAR superior schemes on the offensive side of the ball – often executed with near the same level of athletes.  But the reverse is far from true.  Aranda himself is probably the only DC in the SEC who comes close to Todd Orlando’s level in terms of disguising coverages and blitz packages.  And no one in the SEC combines a highly accurate passer with a power spread ground game.

For me the bottom line is that LSU is not as good a team as Georgia but they have the potential to be more dangerous because they are more disruptive on defense.  Texas dominated UGa because of +2 in turnovers but probably wins a close game in a zero margin scenario.  The Horns have a better set up against LSU, especially adding in the home field.  This game is Texas’ to win but they need to avoid multiple turnovers (or have the Horn’s defense match them) to make that potential a reality. 

 

 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48,203

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22 minutes ago, Loco said:

Can you compare/contrast the talent in the bleachers?  

Thanks in advance

giphy.gif

 

vs.

 

source.gif  tenor.gif?itemid=12216100

 

Who ya got? 

 

Also, it's a shame the OMG girl gif got cut that way, because if memory serves she had a fucking outstanding rack and that tank top was nice and tight. 

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DaggerHorns

DaggerHorns 3,102

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Swamp pussy in the late summer can be a bit more moist due to the humidity. With many of our players on early award watch lists, I would bet we can make more Co-eds  cream their panties early and often given the level of talent in the stands going to Texas by a long shot.

As for the football game, we’re going to make LSU feel at home and toss them around like a tin roof in a hurricane.

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TheFlagship

TheFlagship 436

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My only worry is that LSU’s experienced OL exerts its will on our vulnerable D-Line and linebackers and gives Burrow enough time for their talented (if unproven) receivers to get open. Or if their OL opens up holes for their RBs, forcing us to bring safeties into the box, leaving our young corners 1 on 1. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3,233

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4 minutes ago, TheFlagship said:

Reading now on the Athletic, that while the LSU OL is experienced, they were bad last year (12th in SEC in rush yards before contact, 6th worst in pressure rate, 2nd worst in sack rate)

Maybe that’s not such an advantage for them.

[narrator voice] It's not.  [/narrator voice]

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Kyrie Eleison

Kyrie Eleison 9,312

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13 minutes ago, DaggerHorns said:

Swamp pussy in the late summer can be a bit more moist due to the humidity. With many of our players on early award watch lists, I would bet we can make more Co-eds  cream their panties early and often given the level of talent in the stands going to Texas by a long shot.

As for the football game, we’re going to make LSU feel at home and toss them around like a tin roof in a hurricane.

we have our fair share on early watch lists, too.  for example, all 4 starting linebackers made the Butkus Award watch list.  Jefferson is on the Biletnikoff list, Cushenberry is on the Rimmington, Burrow and CEH on the Maxwell, Delpit and Fulton on the Bednarik (as well as both making CFN's preseason first team AA list).

so if that's your criteria for watering panties, we're doing okay.

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Zavala

Zavala 1,384

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9 minutes ago, TheFlagship said:

Reading now on the Athletic, that while the LSU OL is experienced, they were bad last year (12th in SEC in rush yards before contact, 6th worst in pressure rate, 2nd worst in sack rate)

Maybe that’s not such an advantage for them.

mmmmm

555DC983-BC1A-42DD-A672-50FADC78B905.jpe

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20,510

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7 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

so if that's your criteria for watering panties, we're doing okay.

I absolutely don’t expect LSU to be scared to play us. I thoroughly expect them to underestimate us. Just like Georgia.

It’s hard for sec teams and fans to not buy into all the lies since that’s all we hear. Reality is different than the propaganda, but the circle jerk is real. 

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Loco

Loco 3,754

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9 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

we have our fair share on early watch lists, too.  for example, all 4 starting linebackers made the Butkus Award watch list.  Jefferson is on the Biletnikoff list, Cushenberry is on the Rimmington, Burrow and CEH on the Maxwell, Delpit and Fulton on the Bednarik (as well as both making CFN's preseason first team AA list).

so if that's your criteria for watering panties, we're doing okay.

I don't believe you...  not enough vowels for LSU players

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Blotto

Blotto 23,584

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Texas Off vs LSU def is strength on strength, while LSU off vs TX defense is the opposite.

We have the better QB, home field advantage, and Herman gets shit done when his team is percieved as the underdog. 

Gimme Texas on the moneyline all day.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31,554

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1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

Don't you realize that we need to be concentrating on La. Tech!!!!!!! If we overlook them and lose, we'll be in a world of shit.

While not directly relevant to the LSU game, with Mensa Tommy in charge, we absolutely do need to concentrate on La Tech.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3,233

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One correction (addition really).  The list of extremely talented teams that Texas has faced recently should also include USC.  The 2018 Trojans feautured the #4, #4, #10 and #2 recruiting classes in the nation and also were dominated by Tom Herman's Longhorns.  The 2017 Trojans needed OT to pull it out against a much younger and less talented Texas squad. 

Superior talent and ordinary schemes are not a formula for success against Herman-coached football teams. LSU has a small talent edge and a frankly poor offensive system.  It will take an extraordinary performance from their defense to overcome that.

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Helobious

Helobious 9,467

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Calling it right now: We'll trail La Tech for most of the game and pull ahead and away late to win by 10. Team will overlook them, play sloppy and uninspired, and Herman will play things close too close to the chest, will almost come back to bite them.

Also calling it right now: We dominate the entire LSU game, they score late to only lose by 2 TD's. And I'm not a big sunshine pumper, I have us going 9-3. But that's how unimpressed I am with what LSU has been doing on the field recently. Not worried about the Tigers in the slightest. 

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OU Sucks

OU Sucks 8,917

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3 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

Don't you realize that we need to be concentrating on La. Tech!!!!!!! If we overlook them and lose, we'll be in a world of shit.

Given the past 2 years, let's just assume we'll lose to LaTech and if we win, we'll be pleasantly surprised.

Edited by OU Sucks
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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 30,031

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47 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

Given the past 2 years, let's just assume we'll lose to LaTech and if we win, we'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

24 minutes ago, jettrink said:

It wouldn't surprise me, but hopefully we are over that shit.

 

23 minutes ago, Get ln My Van said:

We route LA Tech by 40

I think we will be so determined to win the opener that we may be flat for LSU.

Think how different the last two seasons would have felt with an opening win. Even if you exchange the loss for a win down the line. There's just an immediate, "Oh fuck, not again."  If we win those games and have the same record, it would have been a lot more fun.

Way to go, Maryland. Goddamn you!

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Sock Drawer

Sock Drawer 214

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4 hours ago, Blotto said:

Texas Off vs LSU def is strength on strength, while LSU off vs TX defense is the opposite.

We have the better QB, home field advantage, and Herman gets shit done when his team is percieved as the underdog. 

Gimme Texas on the moneyline all day.

Jesus on the mainline . . . 

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Kyrie Eleison

Kyrie Eleison 9,312

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I absolutely don’t expect LSU to be scared to play us. I thoroughly expect them to underestimate us. Just like Georgia.
It’s hard for sec teams and fans to not buy into all the lies since that’s all we hear. Reality is different than the propaganda, but the circle jerk is real. 


i can absolutely assure you we’ll be ready and not be taking this game lightly. we’ll show up and play like our ass is on fire.

it seems as if a few of you are relying on us coming out half-ass and cocky. if you are one of those, you’re going to be sorely disappointed.

you’ll get our best, rest assured.
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markstanco

markstanco 12,627

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I absolutely don’t expect LSU to be scared to play us. I thoroughly expect them to underestimate us. Just like Georgia.
It’s hard for sec teams and fans to not buy into all the lies since that’s all we hear. Reality is different than the propaganda, but the circle jerk is real. 
Pretty sure the LSU players have watched the Georgia game in film study more than we have. They are not underestimating one single thing, dont kid yourself on that.
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Kyrie Eleison

Kyrie Eleison 9,312

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I’m not relying on shit. I’m not even saying we’ll win the game. The sec lie is just that, and all the homers have bought in. Everyone has drunk the Kool-Aid. Ask Georgia. 


we’re not Georgia, and of all the schools in our conference we’re the least of the “SEC” homers. we don’t give a single half-fuck about anyone in the SEC but us. let them all lose...we’ll laugh our asses off.

and we take all out of conference P5 opponents we can, and our history proves that.

tee it up...it’s time to party.
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markstanco

markstanco 12,627

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we’re not Georgia, and of all the schools in our conference we’re the least of the “SEC” homers. we don’t give a single half-fuck about anyone in the SEC but us. let them all lose...we’ll laugh our asses off.

and we take all out of conference P5 opponents we can, and our history proves that.

tee it up...it’s time to party.
This. Lsu wont cake walk this game at all. Many players are from texas and they want to play well in their home state.
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Shaddie

Shaddie 1,651

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34 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

 


we’re not Georgia, and of all the schools in our conference we’re the least of the “SEC” homers. we don’t give a single half-fuck about anyone in the SEC but us. let them all lose...we’ll laugh our asses off.

and we take all out of conference P5 opponents we can, and our history proves that.

tee it up...it’s time to party.

 

Oh yes. 20 year old kids DO NOT listen to ESPN. 

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10,935

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3 hours ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

 


i can absolutely assure you we’ll be ready and not be taking this game lightly. we’ll show up and play like our ass is on fire.

it seems as if a few of you are relying on us coming out half-ass and cocky. if you are one of those, you’re going to be sorely disappointed.

you’ll get our best, rest assured.

are you SURE you really want to be there?  just in case... checking now.... far in advance.... no revisionism.

regardless of the result, all we ask, is that you say it now.   no aggy at all.

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