Jimbo 2022: Balls To The Face

[RomaVicta 29902]

I don't see the Aggies playing with much togetherness or enthusiasm as a team so far. As I tiresomely wrote somewhere else, their demeanor and level of effort remind me of Texas in the past ten years when we just didn't seem to have much fire except in a few individuals.

Team demeanor can be overestimated as a read on what's going on, but I'm excited by the change in the Longhorns this year. It showed against ULM and it was there to the very end against Alabama. Desire.

I'm not seeing it at A&M this year. They're not quitting, but they don't seem cohesive. The combination of talent in the DL should be adding up to more than the sum of it's parts (which are formidable). App State was delivering short yardage body shots to good effect to that unit. 

A&M's offense is an accurately described disaster with no player capable of sparking anything.

This is why I don't predict any improvement due to emotion against Miami. Nothing coming from College Station suggests a renewed focus and intensity. A switch at QB to another JAG or worse isn't going to breathe life into the decaying giant they have on their hands.

[walker 175]

1 hour ago, Horndog said:

Right now, aggy lawyers are probably researching the sovereign immunity defense used by Tech to screw Leach.

This would be awesome.  The next coach would demand prepay.   Aggy football coaching contracts moving one step closer to Cricket Wireless

Edited September 14, 2022 by walker
accidental double post

[SHOOTER12 8800]

On 9/13/2022 at 5:06 AM, Rickylovesweed said:

It brings me back to these comments. 

  Hide contents

“Defensive coordinators don’t bring in new schemes," Fisher said last month. "You ain’t changing everything. We’re going to run what we run.

"Recruits know the system is going to stay the same and four of your assistants are going to stay the same."

This never made any sense to me. So you bring in a defensive coordinator that's run a lot of 3 man fronts but then say "the system is going to stay the same" because we're keeping all the assistants from the previous defensive coordinator? 

This is dysfunctional. Either let Durkin run his defense with assistants that fit his scheme or bring in a defensive coordinator that runs primarily 4 man fronts that fit this defensive staff better. 

 

 

They need to hire a DC that can put in a defense to utilize the elleventy linemen they recruited all at the same time. 

[SHOOTER12 8800]

On 9/13/2022 at 8:12 AM, Orange&White said:

The roller coaster can't come crashing down if it never goes up.

Damn man, it went sky high...didn't you see the spring game?  Wait..whut..nmd.

[SHOOTER12 8800]

On 9/13/2022 at 9:39 AM, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

Fucking ouch....

[SHOOTER12 8800]

On 9/13/2022 at 12:26 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Fisher is right until he isn't.  Winning covers up a multitude of sins and keeps the really bad shit at bay while it's happening, but the second that goes away there is nothing there but total and complete decimation of the program, and it becomes a deal where you have to burn everything to the ground and start completely over again in a fresh way.  We saw that with Mack Brown when it all fell apart (well after the program rot had set in around 2006 or so)  and he's 10 times the coach/ceo type that Dildo Baggins will ever be. 

I pounded the table for the under on aggy at 8.5 this year.  I've wanted to put money against them both games.  This season looks like it's going to just crater and burn the whole place down.  Jimbo is a relic of an offensive coach and they have zero competent QB's and a pretty inept line.  This is the same recipe that brought you Shawn Watson and that late term abortion of an offense for Chuckles the Clown.  Layer on the fact that Jimbo is a liar, the new coaches he hired are literally sociopaths, nobody on the team wants to be there, but were mercenaries who showed up to the highest bidder, and I have absolutely positively zero doubt that this can go extremely badly for them and be a nose dive that they can't recover from.  After that reality sets in they will look up and see they have $90M left on the contract, Daddy and his drunken methed out brother OU are coming home and they are ready to sodomize  poor aggy after they were out from under our thumb for the last decade but popped off incessantly like the tiny dick motherfuckers they are.  Finally, layer in a little bit of national ridicule for shitting the bed as a top 10 team and the goofiness of cult practice going viral the other day, and the feels that will stir up in them, and I mean, it just can't possibly get any better.  

The chess board is set up.  We just need one more piece to fall (losing in embarrassing fashion to Miami at the dead dog Kroger) and it will be fucking on and light a fuse that will spark an explosion that we will enjoy watching for at least 3-5 years.  
Its going to be epic. 

I love this guy..well done Wulaw, well done.

[walker 175]

Lets not get too confident in the downfall just yet.  Last year, on Oct 9th..  half way through the OU game, I was feeling the same way with our big lead and 2-loss Aggy getting ready to face bama.   That was not a good day

[Treefidy 1463]

20 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

Hope you are right.  This just may be Jimbo’s most important game they play this year….and a 2nd straight loss at home could be a huge kick in Jimbo’s nuts….

I mean, unless you’re getting tired of the weird cult and are looking to get the fuck out of there with $120M of their dollars for 6 years of wok.  That’s not the worst gig I can think of.   Plus there’s probably going to be an opening back home after Neal brown gets fired, sooo……

[TheRealRonWeaver? 1258]

Lets not get too confident in the downfall just yet.  Last year, on Oct 9th..  half way through the OU game, I was feeling the same way with our big lead and 2-loss Aggy getting ready to face bama.   That was not a good day

[SHOOTER12 8800]

On 9/13/2022 at 2:01 PM, closetojumping said:

I think the big thing here to remember is that Liucci is as much a canary in the coalmine regarding the state of ATM football as it pertains to the boosters as he is for the coaches, admins, or subscribers.

What you're seeing if you see him stopping his spin for the team is his reaction to what he's being told about the outlook for Fisher. Somebody, somewhere wants Fisher feeling heat if Liucci is being critical of him. Liucci doesn't possess the ability to be honest and candid on his own. He's a coelenterate. He is always, and I mean always, going to be taking his cues from someone else.

I don't think ATM would go this route, and I definitely don't think they'd do it any time soon. They're far too insecure about how they're perceived by anyone else to be open to creating the perception that they're cheaters. I think that's the last thing they'd do. I think they'll eventually convince themselves that this is all part of the process for at least the next 3 seasons before they do anything else. 

I know everyone thinks the Jimbo contract is absurd, and I do too, but I had a similar set-up with a company, albeit at a fraction of Fisher's costs. Basically, I could not be fired for performance or insubordination. If they told me to hit the door, they owed me three year's worth of salary, my highest possible bonus for those years, and all of my unvested shares would immediately vest.

They really could only do something about me if I did something unsavory regarding women, ethnicity, or something provably illegal and corrupt. So I always assumed if they came at me, it would be through a female. Never happened and things went great and I left on my own for something more exciting, but it always seemed like the easy play if they ever wanted me out. Jimbo chasing pussy was a thing at FSU, so how hard is it at ATM to ensure there are numerous hot interns of low moral fiber who can accidentally get something going with him and then turn on him and get him tossed for sexual harrassment? If I were them, I'd already have something like that cooking in case it was ever important. 

Listeater is on the case!

[Eggo 3977]

34 minutes ago, walker said:

Lets not get too confident in the downfall just yet.  Last year, on Oct 9th..  half way through the OU game, I was feeling the same way with our big lead and 2-loss Aggy getting ready to face bama.   That was not a good day

whyareyouthewaythatyouare.gif

[Lou_Sassle 2874]

1 hour ago, walker said:

Lets not get too confident in the downfall just yet.  Last year, on Oct 9th..  half way through the OU game, I was feeling the same way with our big lead and 2-loss Aggy getting ready to face bama.   That was not a good day

 

[walker 175]

Bad luck when you celebrate their crash before they actually crash.  I don't have it in me to doordash the rum and fried chicken for Jobu tonight.

[horn_of_the_morning 978]

Found this on a Miami board.

"

I posted it in another thread, but check out Bill Connelly's advanced box score on the App State game. When I get a minute, I'll link it here, but it's on his Twitter. App State had a 22% postgame win expectancy. What they did is not any kind of sustainable blueprint, specifically their offense. And remember, this offense just torched UNC the week before. So I think anyone underestimating A&M's defense is incredibly misinformed. They're better up front than we are on the offensive line. We couldn't block Southern Miss last week, now here comes waves of 4 and 5 stars, who are pissed off and playing in front of the biggest crowd in the history of Kyle Field.

I still think we can absolutely win this game because we have the far superior quarterback, but if there are any of you out there saying "Well App State beat them, how good can they be?" I implore you to watch the game and check out the advanced metrics. App State averaged 3.8 yards per play, they had a 38% success rate (terrible) and a 3.7% explosive play rate (very terrible). Meaning, they got VERY lucky that they were able to sustain drives with such a low output per play and virtually no explosive plays. It was the literal definition of 3 yards and a cloud of dust. App State won the game because they were able to convert a lot of short 3rd and 4th downs, which again isn't incredibly sustainable, and the A&M offense is terrible. They also won the turnover battle, 2-0. So yes, if you can guarantee me that A&M will turn it over twice, we won't turn it over at all, and we'll be able to convert almost 50% of our 3rd downs and multiple 4th downs, then I'll agree with you that we can do what App State did on offense and win. But I don't think that's very realistic. Meaning our offense is going to need to be efficient against a very nasty defense, especially in the secondary (hello, receivers?). The total in this game is 48. That's very, very low for a college football game featuring ranked teams. I don't think we can sniff 30 points without help from the A&M offense, but if we do, I think we win going away. I just don't see that offense exploding. Expect a hard-fought, low scoring game. If we get through the 1st quarter and TVD is still upright and we have some decent rushing numbers, we're gonna win. If we see 2020 Clemson all over again, where the QB is on his ass before he hits his back foot and we can't open a crack, nevermind a hole, it's gonna be a long night.

"

[pacman 7355]

Edited September 15, 2022 by pacman

[Kel Varnsen 8458]

3 hours ago, walker said:

Lets not get too confident in the downfall just yet.  Last year, on Oct 9th..  half way through the OU game, I was feeling the same way with our big lead and 2-loss Aggy getting ready to face bama.   That was not a good day

[Rickylovesweed 14262]

9 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Cristobal said today everyone practiced (Nelson, RB, DL) today with no limitations.

They're also getting Jacolby George back from suspension who was apparently one of their best wide receivers in fall camp. 

[Fud 9552]

Granted they were playing with their backup for almost all of last season, but if you take out games against Kent State, New Mexico, Prairie View A&M, and Sam Houston, A&M has scored fewer than 25 points in 7/10 games. Or in other words, in 70% of their games. 

Also, something to consider for this weekend is Kevin Steele as a DC has faced Jimbo as an OC six times; three times at Clemson while Jimbo was at FSU, and three times at Auburn while Jimbo was at A&M, so he's familiar with Jimbo's offense. Jimbo has averaged 24.5 points in those games, with all six games being scored in the 16-31 point range. The implied score based on the betting market for this game is 25-19.5 A&M. 

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

21 minutes ago, Fud said:

Granted they were playing with their backup for almost all of last season, but if you take out games against Kent State, New Mexico, Prairie View A&M, and Sam Houston, A&M has scored fewer than 25 points in 7/10 games. Or in other words, in 70% of their games. 

Also, something to consider for this weekend is Kevin Steele as a DC has faced Jimbo as an OC six times; three times at Clemson while Jimbo was at FSU, and three times at Auburn while Jimbo was at A&M, so he's familiar with Jimbo's offense. Jimbo has averaged 24.5 points in those games, with all six games being scored in the 16-31 point range. The implied score based on the betting market for this game is 25-19.5 A&M. 

I think people are underestimating this Miami offense.  Yes they struggled in the first half against Southern Miss - but they also were resting some starters and working back in a couple starters who had injuries. 

Van Dyke is a good QB and they have talent on the OL - especially with Zion Nelson coming back for this game.  That aggy defense is not the same one that was shutting teams down in 2021 - Miami is going to score points.

[RGBIII 22838]

12 hours ago, pacman said:

 

12 hours ago, horn_of_the_morning said:

Found this on a Miami board.

"

I posted it in another thread, but check out Bill Connelly's advanced box score on the App State game. When I get a minute, I'll link it here, but it's on his Twitter. App State had a 22% postgame win expectancy. What they did is not any kind of sustainable blueprint, specifically their offense. And remember, this offense just torched UNC the week before. So I think anyone underestimating A&M's defense is incredibly misinformed. They're better up front than we are on the offensive line. We couldn't block Southern Miss last week, now here comes waves of 4 and 5 stars, who are pissed off and playing in front of the biggest crowd in the history of Kyle Field.

I still think we can absolutely win this game because we have the far superior quarterback, but if there are any of you out there saying "Well App State beat them, how good can they be?" I implore you to watch the game and check out the advanced metrics. App State averaged 3.8 yards per play, they had a 38% success rate (terrible) and a 3.7% explosive play rate (very terrible). Meaning, they got VERY lucky that they were able to sustain drives with such a low output per play and virtually no explosive plays. It was the literal definition of 3 yards and a cloud of dust. App State won the game because they were able to convert a lot of short 3rd and 4th downs, which again isn't incredibly sustainable, and the A&M offense is terrible. They also won the turnover battle, 2-0. So yes, if you can guarantee me that A&M will turn it over twice, we won't turn it over at all, and we'll be able to convert almost 50% of our 3rd downs and multiple 4th downs, then I'll agree with you that we can do what App State did on offense and win. But I don't think that's very realistic. Meaning our offense is going to need to be efficient against a very nasty defense, especially in the secondary (hello, receivers?). The total in this game is 48. That's very, very low for a college football game featuring ranked teams. I don't think we can sniff 30 points without help from the A&M offense, but if we do, I think we win going away. I just don't see that offense exploding. Expect a hard-fought, low scoring game. If we get through the 1st quarter and TVD is still upright and we have some decent rushing numbers, we're gonna win. If we see 2020 Clemson all over again, where the QB is on his ass before he hits his back foot and we can't open a crack, nevermind a hole, it's gonna be a long night.

"

[EZ$ 2102]

On 9/13/2022 at 9:39 AM, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

So Laden Robinson is their worst OLineman by far….he’s being projected as a 1st round pick (or was). Guess he going down the Wydermeyer path. 

[Fud 9552]

29 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I think people are underestimating this Miami offense.  Yes they struggled in the first half against Southern Miss - but they also were resting some starters and working back in a couple starters who had injuries. 

Van Dyke is a good QB and they have talent on the OL - especially with Zion Nelson coming back for this game.  That aggy defense is not the same one that was shutting teams down in 2021 - Miami is going to score points.

Two of the football pods I listen to have mentioned how Miami's WRs have struggled to get separation against the weak competition they've faced so far, so if true, hopefully the guy they're getting back can make a difference there 

[ClubWhatever 12120]

App State dropped a couple of passes too. One of those, the guy would have walked into the end zone.  It should have been 21-14.  

[Burt Macklin 19020]

34 minutes ago, EZ$ said:

So Laden Robinson is their worst OLineman by far….he’s being projected as a 1st round pick (or was). Guess he going down the Wydermeyer path. 

Huh? Idk where you’re getting him projected as a first round pick. I haven’t seen anyone say that. The Draft Network has him going in the 4th or 5th round, which seems a lot more accurate based on his play last year. 

[Fud 9552]

1 minute ago, Burt Macklin said:

Huh? Idk where you’re getting him projected as a first round pick. I haven’t seen anyone say that. The Draft Network has him going in the 4th or 5th round, which seems a lot more accurate based on his play last year. 

Someone reputable had him there in a mock awhile back, not that mocks at that point are useful

[Fud 9552]

The Athletic had Layden going #32, although it was Nate Tice (who's more of an NFL rather than a draft guy) using Dane Brugler's Big Board rather than Dane (who might be the best in the business) mocking him in the first

"32. Buffalo Bills: Layden Robinson, OG, Texas A&M

Our current projection has the Bills winning it all this year (or finishing with the top record, at least). So, congrats, Bills fans!

The offensive line is still a bit of concern in Buffalo — 34-year-old Rodger Saffold is starting at left guard this year. GM Brandon Beane could decide to address it in the 2023 draft with Robinson. It’s never sexy to draft a guard in the first round, but QB Josh Allen is special enough to make whatever weapons are around him several tiers better, and the Bills already have Stefon Diggs and an emerging Gabe Davis in their receiver room.

The Bills’ defense is a strong unit, too, but another option could be to start looking for a safety (or safeties) of the future next offseason. — Tice"

[Burt Macklin 19020]

5 minutes ago, Fud said:

The Athletic had Layden going #32, although it was Nate Tice (who's more of an NFL rather than a draft guy) using Dane Brugler's Big Board rather than Dane (who might be the best in the business) mocking him in the first

"32. Buffalo Bills: Layden Robinson, OG, Texas A&M

Our current projection has the Bills winning it all this year (or finishing with the top record, at least). So, congrats, Bills fans!

The offensive line is still a bit of concern in Buffalo — 34-year-old Rodger Saffold is starting at left guard this year. GM Brandon Beane could decide to address it in the 2023 draft with Robinson. It’s never sexy to draft a guard in the first round, but QB Josh Allen is special enough to make whatever weapons are around him several tiers better, and the Bills already have Stefon Diggs and an emerging Gabe Davis in their receiver room.

The Bills’ defense is a strong unit, too, but another option could be to start looking for a safety (or safeties) of the future next offseason. — Tice"

That’s pretty wild. If you’re an interior lineman getting drafted in the first round, you have to be absolutely dominant, and I’ve never seen that from Robinson. 

[Fud 9552]

Just now, Burt Macklin said:

That’s pretty wild. If you’re an interior lineman getting drafted in the first round, you have to be absolutely dominant, and I’ve never seen that from Robinson. 

I think mocks before the season starts are mostly useless, aside from giving you a "players to potentially watch" list. Players are getting mocked on small sample size, reputation, or before their game has really been picked apart. 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18547]

26 minutes ago, RGBIII said:

 

That's some interesting analysis and I buy a lot of what he's saying, but I wonder exactly how they calculate win expectancy? I mean, if you run 82 plays and the other team runs 38 with a lousy explosive play rate, I would venture that your win expectancy would be much higher than 22%.  There is definitely some weirdness in those numbers, but when you employ a hyper-conservative game plan based on defense and field position and shortening the game and the opponent shooting themselves in the foot, you damn well better have an offense that can chew up some clock and not turn it over. They got beat at their own game, except App State's coach isn't a giant gaping pussy who is afraid to go for it on fourth down.

I have no idea what to think about ATM. They were left for dead before Alabama last year, too. I don't think Christobel is a very good game day coach and he hasn't been there long enough to wash the Manny Diaz stink off that team. Miami's struggles on the offensive line are a concern but A&M is stepping up in class when they face off against Miami's defense. The only way Southern Miss was able to move the ball against them was on jump balls into coverage down the field, and their receivers made some pretty amazing grabs. I could definitely see this game being a rock fight. The team that gets any sort of explosive plays and/or doesn't shoot themselves in the dick with turnovers or special teams almost assuredly wins. These two are definitely not going up and down the field on each other.

[LOHorn 277]

52 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

That's some interesting analysis and I buy a lot of what he's saying, but I wonder exactly how they calculate win expectancy? I mean, if you run 82 plays and the other team runs 38 with a lousy explosive play rate, I would venture that your win expectancy would be much higher than 22%.  There is definitely some weirdness in those numbers, but when you employ a hyper-conservative game plan based on defense and field position and shortening the game and the opponent shooting themselves in the foot, you damn well better have an offense that can chew up some clock and not turn it over. They got beat at their own game, except App State's coach isn't a giant gaping pussy who is afraid to go for it on fourth down.

I have no idea what to think about ATM. They were left for dead before Alabama last year, too. I don't think Christobel is a very good game day coach and he hasn't been there long enough to wash the Manny Diaz stink off that team. Miami's struggles on the offensive line are a concern but A&M is stepping up in class when they face off against Miami's defense. The only way Southern Miss was able to move the ball against them was on jump balls into coverage down the field, and their receivers made some pretty amazing grabs. I could definitely see this game being a rock fight. The team that gets any sort of explosive plays and/or doesn't shoot themselves in the dick with turnovers or special teams almost assuredly wins. These two are definitely not going up and down the field on each other.

SP+ bases a lot of average yds per play. Grinding teams have never failed particularly well in his system, and this is one example. Texas A&M out-gained App St on a per play basis. The computer doesn't see the 82 to 38 play differential.

[closetojumping 62565]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

The Athletic had Layden going #32, although it was Nate Tice (who's more of an NFL rather than a draft guy) using Dane Brugler's Big Board rather than Dane (who might be the best in the business) mocking him in the first

"32. Buffalo Bills: Layden Robinson, OG, Texas A&M

Our current projection has the Bills winning it all this year (or finishing with the top record, at least). So, congrats, Bills fans!

The offensive line is still a bit of concern in Buffalo — 34-year-old Rodger Saffold is starting at left guard this year. GM Brandon Beane could decide to address it in the 2023 draft with Robinson. It’s never sexy to draft a guard in the first round, but QB Josh Allen is special enough to make whatever weapons are around him several tiers better, and the Bills already have Stefon Diggs and an emerging Gabe Davis in their receiver room.

The Bills’ defense is a strong unit, too, but another option could be to start looking for a safety (or safeties) of the future next offseason. — Tice"

I will shit a golden trident and stab @Burt Macklin in the heart with it if Layden Robinson is drafted before the 5th round. Hell, I don't really believe he'll be drafted at all, but I don't want to have to turn him into Scott Jurgenson for nothing. 

55 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

That's some interesting analysis and I buy a lot of what he's saying, but I wonder exactly how they calculate win expectancy? I mean, if you run 82 plays and the other team runs 38 with a lousy explosive play rate, I would venture that your win expectancy would be much higher than 22%.  There is definitely some weirdness in those numbers, but when you employ a hyper-conservative game plan based on defense and field position and shortening the game and the opponent shooting themselves in the foot, you damn well better have an offense that can chew up some clock and not turn it over. They got beat at their own game, except App State's coach isn't a giant gaping pussy who is afraid to go for it on fourth down.

I have no idea what to think about ATM. They were left for dead before Alabama last year, too. I don't think Christobel is a very good game day coach and he hasn't been there long enough to wash the Manny Diaz stink off that team. Miami's struggles on the offensive line are a concern but A&M is stepping up in class when they face off against Miami's defense. The only way Southern Miss was able to move the ball against them was on jump balls into coverage down the field, and their receivers made some pretty amazing grabs. I could definitely see this game being a rock fight. The team that gets any sort of explosive plays and/or doesn't shoot themselves in the dick with turnovers or special teams almost assuredly wins. These two are definitely not going up and down the field on each other.

One of the dorks that worship at the altar of SP+ and the like can chime in, but I assume there is still a lot of preseason assumption crap built into his numbers. I found the premise that a win probability exists for a game that's already been played to be absurd at its core, but apparently that's just fine. In any event, anyone who watched that game knows that the "22%" conceit is just that, and dumb and unjustifiable on every level.

App State beat ATM's ass upfront. If they were to play again this weekend, I would assume App State would be favored, and I'd still be betting on them. This is where the advanced stats logic from the nerd herd jumps the shark. Give me as much data as you can before an event and I will consume it and factor it. Giving me fictional nonsense after the outcome is known is just dungeons & dragons silliness and that dork should get an atomic wedgie and a whirly in the toilet as punishment for putting it forward. 

[Noozak 324]

My best guess is that he has some Bayesian model that takes in all of the post game stats and assigns a win probability without knowing what the final score is. Not particularly useful other than to drive a talking point

[Butch Had Not 2969]

21 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I will shit a golden trident and stab @Burt Macklin in the heart with it if Layden Robinson is drafted before the 5th round. Hell, I don't really believe he'll be drafted at all, but I don't want to have to turn him into Scott Jurgenson for nothing. 

One of the dorks that worship at the altar of SP+ and the like can chime in, but I assume there is still a lot of preseason assumption crap built into his numbers. I found the premise that a win probability exists for a game that's already been played to be absurd at its core, but apparently that's just fine. In any event, anyone who watched that game knows that the "22%" conceit is just that, and dumb and unjustifiable on every level.

App State beat ATM's ass upfront. If they were to play again this weekend, I would assume App State would be favored, and I'd still be betting on them. This is where the advanced stats logic from the nerd herd jumps the shark. Give me as much data as you can before an event and I will consume it and factor it. Giving me fictional nonsense after the outcome is known is just dungeons & dragons silliness and that dork should get an atomic wedgie and a whirly in the toilet as punishment for putting it forward. 

I wish I could Gif that aggy LT getting destroyed by the app st defender.

[Viper 12104]

Just now, Butch Had Not said:

I wish I could Gif that aggy LT getting destroyed by the app st defender.

LT or RT? I remember seeing Fatheree getting tossed around at RT. 

[Butch Had Not 2969]

4 minutes ago, Viper said:

LT or RT? I remember seeing Fatheree getting tossed around at RT. 

You are probably correct. 

[UDontKnow 10440]

21 minutes ago, Noozak said:

My best guess is that he has some Bayesian model that takes in all of the post game stats and assigns a win probability without knowing what the final score is. Not particularly useful other than to drive a talking point

I was told there would be no math stats.

[closetojumping 62565]

3 minutes ago, Noozak said:

My best guess is that he has some Bayesian model that takes in all of the post game stats and assigns a win probability without knowing what the final score is. Not particularly useful other than to drive a talking point

Knowing Connelly, it's probably designed in part to protect him from SP+ picks that blow-up on any given Saturday. The guy is deeply insecure when it comes to questions around his work, and him creating new "data" that reinforce why his initial model works is pretty much right up his alley. 

"What happens if the housing market goes down in value for a quarter?"

"It won't."

"So that's not in your quant's model?"

"No. The model only factors in facts around the housing market."

"But the housing market went down in value multiple times in the past."

"Not since Hitler invaded Poland. Can't happen."

Whoops. 

"What happens if number of plays actually called has a disparity of greater than 25?"

"That won't happen."

Whoops. 

The bottom line is that the disparity in plays called in this game was a direct indicator of the futility of ATM's offense and defense, in far greater ways than YPP was. It indicates that they were dominated on both sides of the ball. Any idiot can assemble logic in their model to discount or negate something like total plays until the disparity exceeds X, and then that gets factored to greater and greater levels as X increases. There is a lot of shit that doesn't matter in an average game that can be defining in major upsets or blowouts. 

Specifically, think about it in this context: Team A runs 65 plays. Team B runs 50 plays. Which team probably won? The answer is: Tell me each team's YPP. If team B averaged 12 YPP, I'm guessing they might have won.

Now try this one: Team A runs 80 plays. Team B runs 40 plays. Which team probably won? Anyone answering "Team A" has plenty of logic and supporting history to justify the choice, YPP unseen. There are undoubtedly games where someone averaged 15 YPP and only ran 40 plays, but way more often than not, they ran 40 plays because they were being dominated on offense. I'm being lazy, but what was the play gap between Texas and KU when we beat them 59-0? ATM vs. OU in the 77-0 rout? I'm guessing that those are also wide fucking gaps because or pure LOS domination. I don't know, maybe I'm off my rocker. 

ATM was dominated upfront from whistle to whistle. They're lucky they didn't lose by double digits. If a model can't take that into account and attempts tell us that there is only a 22% win "probability" for App State in a game like that, then the model is shit and worthy of nothing but open derision.

[Elmer_Fudd 22204]

Miami will be without its leading WR Xavier Restrepo.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

2 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Miami will be without its leading WR Xavier Restrepo.

If you showed me a photo of this dude without the logo on his polo and asked me who he played for, I'm pretty sure I'd nail it on the first guess.

[Noozak 324]

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Knowing Connelly, it's probably designed in part to protect him from SP+ picks that blow-up on any given Saturday. The guy is deeply insecure when it comes to questions around his work, and him creating new "data" that reinforce why his initial model works is pretty much right up his alley. 

"What happens if the housing market goes down in value for a quarter?"

"It won't."

"So that's not in your quant's model?"

"No. The model only factors in facts around the housing market."

"But the housing market went down in value multiple times in the past."

"Not since Hitler invaded Poland. Can't happen."

Whoops. 

"What happens if number of plays actually called has a disparity of greater than 25?"

"That won't happen."

Whoops. 

The bottom line is that the disparity in plays called in this game was a direct indicator of the futility of ATM's offense and defense, in far greater ways than YPP was. It indicates that they were dominated on both sides of the ball. Any idiot can assemble logic in their model to discount or negate something like total plays until the disparity exceeds X, and then that gets factored to greater and greater levels as X increases. There is a lot of shit that doesn't matter in an average game that can be defining in major upsets or blowouts. 

Specifically, think about it in this context: Team A runs 65 plays. Team B runs 50 plays. Which team probably won? The answer is: Tell me each team's YPP. If team B averaged 12 YPP, I'm guessing they might have won.

Now try this one: Team A runs 80 plays. Team B runs 40 plays. Which team probably won? Anyone answering "Team A" has plenty of logic and supporting history to justify the choice, YPP unseen. There are undoubtedly games where someone averaged 15 YPP and only ran 40 plays, but way more often than not, they ran 40 plays because they were being dominated on offense. I'm being lazy, but what was the play gap between Texas and KU when we beat them 59-0? ATM vs. OU in the 77-0 rout? I'm guessing that those are also wide fucking gaps because or pure LOS domination. I don't know, maybe I'm off my rocker. 

ATM was dominated upfront from whistle to whistle. They're lucky they didn't lose by double digits. If a model can't take that into account and attempts tell us that there is only a 22% win "probability" for App State in a game like that, then the model is shit and worthy of nothing but open derision.

I agree with you. I think it really all boils down to your first point about his insecurities. Every model has flaws because it is impossible to build the perfect model. If I could build the perfect model I would be worth more than Elon Musk. Shit, whenever my data scientists go through the results of their models, I have them start with why their model sucks. As long as it doesn't suck too bad then the results typically don't matter. It provides some insight that may move the needle a little bit and we go on justifying our salaries. 

On the other hand though I will give him a small bit of leeway (5% or so) though based on how the general public thinks about probabilities. 

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Noozak

[Dbeasy 15042]

43 minutes ago, Noozak said:

My best guess is that he has some Bayesian model 

I love Baywatch models but I don’t really see the relevance here  

 

 

[UDontKnow 10440]

12 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

If you showed me a photo of this dude without the logo on his polo and asked me who he played for, I'm pretty sure I'd nail it on the first guess.

 

[Hornlover 8829]

26 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

If you showed me a photo of this dude without the logo on his polo and asked me who he played for, I'm pretty sure I'd nail it on the first guess.

He's Van Dyke's roommate/best friend, and #1 target. The Shipley to his McCoy, if you will.

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

35 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Miami will be without its leading WR Xavier Restrepo.

Out indefinitely with foot injury.

Well, fuck.

[66BUFF 2562]

On 9/14/2022 at 8:49 AM, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Aggy is stuck with Jimbo... they have sold their entire image as "we have a championship coach"... the only other ones available are:

Saban, Swinney, Smart and Mack Brown.  None of those guys would even consider A&M given age and/or what they have going now.

Is aggy suddently going to go with.. well a "proven coach" couldn't do it here with every possibly thing they asked for and then some... so come now play for the next "unproven coach" who Luicci thinks is actually better and has him ranked #1 in the Luicci coaching top 5??  They've created their own problem.

That said I would love for them to video the pass down of the un-dated championship trophy to their next coach.

[HenryJames 66038]

48 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I love Baywatch models but I don’t really see the relevance here  

 

 

Your model is more outdated than Connelly's.

Spoiler

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

The counter argument is AppSt beat Jimbo at/with his own MO of eating as much clock as possible and thus denied Jimbo chances, via TOP, at the couple of opponent defense mismatches/mistakes that Jimbo wins close games on. AppSt TOP was over 40 minutes.

EDIT- LOHorn already made a similar point.

[Chopper 17230]

2 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Your model is more outdated than Connelly's.

  Hide contents

 

x, x, x, x

[justhookit 4191]

3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

x, x, x, x

X,1,x,2

[Fud 9552]