AP Top 25

[JBJ 3,649]

People always wring their hands about this shit way too early.  The first CFP weeks away still and usually does a far better job than AP.

I crunched some numbers; at this time it's really just the odds of being a 1L-Champ or better, but that's been the metric to hit:

Odds of making CFP:

1) Clemson 92%

2) Oklahoma 78%

3) Ohio State 63%

4) Alabama 52%

5) Oregon 31%

6) Wisconsin 28%

7) LSU 16%

8: Utah 4%

9) Mizzou 3%

10) Georgia 2%

Less than 2%: Baylor, Penn St, Auburn, Wake Forest, Florida, Arizona St, Michigan, Minnesota.

Notre Dame has a 63% chance to win out, and I have no idea what to do with that at this time.  I think they get left out with 4 viable candidates.

By conference:

B1G 93%

ACC 93%

B12 79%

SEC 74% (this seems crazy, but Mizzou has a decent enough chance to win the east with multiple losses and really mess things up.  They avoid the good teams in the west.)

P12 34%

 

[TXSooner518 2,432]

Mizzou can't win the East (or go to the playoffs), they are on probation. There is a non-zero chance that the SEC misses the playoff, but it's more like 0.5%, not 26%. I'll be happy to lay 3 to 1 on the SEC having a playoff team for every dollar you want. 

You also have the ACC having a chance to send a non-Clemson team to the playoffs. LOLNO. Wake Forest could win out by 45-0 in every game, they aren't getting in. Also no way that Oregon is 31% to make the playoffs. 

Also you have Mizzou more likely to win out than UGA?  LOLWAT.  I also don't see how Penn State at this point would be less than 2%. Obviously winning at tOSU is a tall order, but if they do that, they would need to win the B1G title game, and go no worse than 2-1 against Sparty, Minnesota, Michigan (assuming Indiana/Rutgers are lock wins). FPI has PSU at 4.8% to completely win out, so obv finishing 12-1 would be higher than that. They have them 11.3% to win the B1G.

[Surly Bevo 24,705]

20 hours ago, Drew said:

They STILL don't understand how defense and offense work at these big networks.  They still don't comprehend that the Big 10 and especially SEC defenses are propped up by less innovated offenses, and the Big 12 Defenses, and Pac 12 to a degree, are hurt because of how spread out and fast the Big 12 offenses are.

They look at stats like "Total Defensive Yards and Pts against" still, instead of more telling stats like Points per Drive.  Just ridiculous.

There is this and there is also how the individual leagues have structured the game, particular the officiating of the game.  I'm not going to go grab a bunch of stats but when you look at the number of times the ball goes in the air in the Big 12  and the number of times holding gets called I am guessing that holds per pass attempt is a smaller number than most if not all leagues  This handicaps defenses to an extent to deal with those more creative offenses.  The conference in and of itself is move favorable to offense and less to defense.  

So then your conference team with the supposedly very innovative offense goes and plays in a bowl game that is not similarly structured and all of a sudden are more held in check...then you get "well they couldn't be stopped in the Big 12 but look when they went and played XYZ conference that plays better defense they were held x points below their normal output....ergo those defenses in the Big 12 are bad"

There was one holding penalty called (on Florida) in LSU-Florida and shocker...70 points went on the board.  

[utee94 15,746]

11 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

There is this and there is also how the individual leagues have structured the game, particular the officiating of the game.  I'm not going to go grab a bunch of stats but when you look at the number of times the ball goes in the air in the Big 12  and the number of times holding gets called I am guessing that holds per pass attempt is a smaller number than most if not all leagues  This handicaps defenses to an extent to deal with those more creative offenses.  The conference in and of itself is move favorable to offense and less to defense.  

So then your conference team with the supposedly very innovative offense goes and plays in a bowl game that is not similarly structured and all of a sudden are more held in check...then you get "well they couldn't be stopped in the Big 12 but look when they went and played XYZ conference that plays better defense they were held x points below their normal output....ergo those defenses in the Big 12 are bad"

There was one holding penalty called (on Florida) in LSU-Florida and shocker...70 points went on the board.  

And I saw both those teams holding quite a bit.  It looked like a B12 game in a lot of ways.  Diehard SECSECSEC defense-first folks are about to start questioning their sanity, as their league starts to look more and more like ours...

 

 

[JBJ 3,649]

1 hour ago, TXSooner518 said:

Mizzou can't win the East (or go to the playoffs), they are on probation. There is a non-zero chance that the SEC misses the playoff, but it's more like 0.5%, not 26%. I'll be happy to lay 3 to 1 on the SEC having a playoff team for every dollar you want. 

You also have the ACC having a chance to send a non-Clemson team to the playoffs. LOLNO. Wake Forest could win out by 45-0 in every game, they aren't getting in. Also no way that Oregon is 31% to make the playoffs. 

Also you have Mizzou more likely to win out than UGA?  LOLWAT.  I also don't see how Penn State at this point would be less than 2%. Obviously winning at tOSU is a tall order, but if they do that, they would need to win the B1G title game, and go no worse than 2-1 against Sparty, Minnesota, Michigan (assuming Indiana/Rutgers are lock wins). FPI has PSU at 4.8% to completely win out, so obv finishing 12-1 would be higher than that. They have them 11.3% to win the B1G.

I overlooked Mizzou probation.  Do they just get passed over if they finish first in the East?

Like I explained, it's the odds to have a 1L-Champ at this point.  I have no doubt SEC will send a team either way.

Wake has less than 1% if that makes you feel better.

Oregon has Washington tomorrow, then it's pretty much 50/50 on them winning out. It's not Clemson easy, but USC, P12 title are the only clear stumbling blocks.

Mizzou has Arkansas inter-division, Georgia has Auburn and A&M.  Mizzou can afford to lose a game as well, but it that gets pretty complicated in the UGA-UF-Mizzou triangle.

I actually have Penn St. higher to win out than FPI (7.0%) and 68% to have one loss. The problem is that the most likey loss is tOSU, where they will likely miss the CCG anyway. That and actually winning the CCG, which is pretty much guaranteed to be Wisconsin.

I do need to recalc for Mizzou probation still.

Edited October 18, 2019 by JBJ

[TXSooner518 2,432]

Yes, whoever finishes 2nd in East will go to title game.

And you call it CFP odds. You're overstating the chances of a 1 loss P5 champ making it to the playoff (12-1 Oregon <> 12-1 Alabama), and understating the chances of a 1 loss non-champion/Notre Dame of making the playoff.

So you think PSU is 68% to have one loss or less, but only 2% to make the playoff? I get that losing the tOSU game basically kills them, but it's crazy to say basically that they are about 3% to beat tOSU. 

FPI has Oregon at 18% to win out, so 31% to win out seems quite high, and again even if they win out, they are most likely not getting in. At USC and at Arizona State are quite losable games. There's no way they are 1/3 to sweep UW, USC and ASU on the road while also holding serve at home to Wazzu, Arizona, and their in-state rival.

Wake has 0%, which is less than 1%, yes.

[JBJ 3,649]

It's greater than 25% that an at-large team gets in, tie-breaker math already is complicated in most conferences, and I just don't want to bother with at-large bids (maybe November).

For PSU, the problem is beating both tOSU and (Wisconsin).  Wisconsin is way favorite to be in the CCG.

Me and FPI must disagree on Oregon.  I'll admit they could just be overrated my model.  They are a consistent team, but my model doesn't think the data collected is very firm (#108/130) - which is usually a sign of playing too many cupcakes.  This will make them drop more with a poor performance.

Haha - Wake is technically still in the running and will stay on that list until they lose (which might be tomorrow).

Edited October 18, 2019 by JBJ

[TXSooner518 2,432]

Actually, looking at schedules, pretty solid chance that Wisky @ Minnesota is for the B1G West title. Minn is no great shakes, but winning on the road in a low-scoring affair isn't a lock either.

And I still see no reasonable mathematical way that PSU is going to have 1 loss 68% of the time, but only win the conference 2% of the time. What WP% do you have on them @ tOSU and them vs Wisky on a neutral field?

And if you don't wanna bother with at-large bids or tie-breakers, maybe skip the CFP percentages??  

SMU is more likely to make the playoffs than Wake Forest.

[ztejas 43,269]

4 hours ago, JBJ said:

People always wring their hands about this shit way too early.  The first CFP weeks away still and usually does a far better job than AP.

I crunched some numbers; at this time it's really just the odds of being a 1L-Champ or better, but that's been the metric to hit:

Odds of making CFP:

1) Clemson 92%

2) Oklahoma 78%

3) Ohio State 63%

4) Alabama 52%

5) Oregon 31%

6) Wisconsin 28%

7) LSU 16%

8: Utah 4%

9) Mizzou 3%

10) Georgia 2%

Less than 2%: Baylor, Penn St, Auburn, Wake Forest, Florida, Arizona St, Michigan, Minnesota.

Notre Dame has a 63% chance to win out, and I have no idea what to do with that at this time.  I think they get left out with 4 viable candidates.

By conference:

B1G 93%

ACC 93%

B12 79%

SEC 74% (this seems crazy, but Mizzou has a decent enough chance to win the east with multiple losses and really mess things up.  They avoid the good teams in the west.)

P12 34%

 

UO would get trounced in the playoff. Pac12 is such dogshit it's embarrassing. They should have to play the American champ for a playoff slot. 

Fuck we need 8 teams.

[JBJ 3,649]

Ohio State 18% (+12)

Wisconsin 29% (+7)

I did bother with tie-breakers.

I have in the past and will figure in at-larges at some point.  I'm just too lazy at this point with so many teams in the field and football still left.  I like to figure relative SORs for all kinds of scenarios and that's really burdensome for 4 games remaining and 8 teams, much less 8 games remaining and 17 teams.

Also, I'm going to ignore that you brought up SMU.  It's such a pipe-dream, but they would have a strong SOR if they went undefeated.  Better than Clemson or Notre Dame.

[gmr548 16,531]

Ohio State (12-1 and B1G champs) was kept out after losing to Purdue last year.   What's the difference except secsecsec?

1.) Georgia has an OOC win of substance.

2.) Ohio State didn't just lose to Purdue, they were completely steamrolled.

That's the difference.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[gmr548 16,531]

Also remember that undefeated teams are very rare. Last year was exceptional in that it had a whopping three P5/ND undefeated teams.

Even if you say, for argument's sake, that a 6-0 contender has a 95 percent chance of winning each game they have left (they don't, except maybe Clemson bc ACC), that's still a 1 in 3 chance they drop a game. And in reality it's higher than that.

Going undefeated is hard. Some of these contenders are going to lose, not just to each other, but where it just isn't expected.

Trying to project it now with half the season left is fruitless.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[RPM 26,236]

Wisky lost to unranked Illinois

ouch

[Loco 3,752]

in other news, duh U lost to GT in overtime...  then they broke out the OT Loss Grill, it was hype!

[notre dame joe 173]

On 10/18/2019 at 1:05 PM, JBJ said:

 

For PSU, the problem is beating both tOSU and (Wisconsin).  Wisconsin is way favorite to be in the CCG.

 

It's not even that.  Penn State also has to play vs UM, @Mich St, and @Minn (surprise).  Odds are they lose at least one of those games.  I don't see the point of predicting PSU unless you have are building an AI to bet sports.  

[Zavala 1,384]

5 minutes ago, Loco said:

in other news, duh U lost to GT in overtime...  then they broke out the OT Loss Grill, it was hype!

Still more cool than the backpack.

[hornhorn 100]

I'm thinking Texas drops a spot or two. 

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,630]

3 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

I'm thinking Texas drops a spot or two. 

Depends on if BYU wins this I would think. 
 

plus Michigan and sparky also lost. Not too many people around us to make the jump?  Maybe Baylor?  Which I wouldn’t complain about at this point 

Edited October 20, 2019 by Xian

[orangecat92 306]

Looks to me we drop 2 spots and both SMU and Baylor pass us.   aggy moves back to 25, swapping places with mizzou, cuz SEC.

 

 

 

[Vito Andolini 9,115]

Baylor, even with the taint fumble that wasn’t vs. Tech, should definitely blow past us after last night. They’ve more than matched our best win with the fourth quarter asskicking of oSu. I just looked at their schedule, and damn, it plays out favorably for them. 

Except for the little problem of still having to play Oklahoma and (hopefully a healthier) us, the only road games are TCU and Kansas, with WVA (next up Thursday night Oct. 31), OU and Texas at home. 

[Loco 3,752]

That Heisman moment every player needs...

 

[52-80 19,104]

2 hours ago, Vito Andolini said:

Baylor, even with the taint fumble that wasn’t vs. Tech, should definitely blow past us after last night. They’ve more than matched our best win with the fourth quarter asskicking of oSu. I just looked at their schedule, and damn, it plays out favorably for them. 
 

?

Kansas is jekyll and hyde.  TCU is still TCU.  OU and TX are obviously the 2 big dogs of the conference.

compared to first half of SFA, UTSA, Rice, etc...

[gmr548 16,531]

?
Kansas is jekyll and hyde.

Neither Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde were any good at football and neither is Kansas.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[BigOrange1 6,422]

i'm not exactly sure texas should be ranked.  we've beaten no one of consequence. 

[Napoleon 8,615]

18 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i'm not exactly sure texas should be ranked.  we've beaten no one of consequence. 

But to use aggie logic...

We’ve got two very impressive losses. 

🤷‍♂️

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,783]

If we are still ranked after last night it will be obvious the pollsters don’t watch any games.

[Texasrocks 2,124]

1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

i'm not exactly sure texas should be ranked.  we've beaten no one of consequence. 

Apparently we are SEC good. Aggy will be devestated.

[Vito Andolini 9,115]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

?

Kansas is jekyll and hyde.  TCU is still TCU.  OU and TX are obviously the 2 big dogs of the conference.

compared to first half of SFA, UTSA, Rice, etc...

Just meaning they have three very winnable games left (and should be favored) against WVA, TCU and Kansas, and what should be their toughest opponents (OU and Texas) are both home games for them. I didn’t go into more detail, but due to the Halloween game, they essentially have two mini-byes late in the season to heal.

I think Oklahoma beats them, and we can if the shitty version of us doesn’t show up. Our game with them probably determines the land thieves’ opponent in the championship game.

[BigOrange1 6,422]

1. Spoiler

    

   1. alabama
   2. lsu
   3. ohio state
   4. clemson
   5. oklahoma
   6. penn state
   7. florida
   8. notre dame
   9. auburn
   10. georgia
   11. oregon
   12. utah
   13. wisconsin
   14. baylor
   15. texas
   16. smu
   17. minnesota
   18. cincinnati
   19. michigan
   20. iowa
   21. appalachian state
   22. boise state
   23. iowa state
   24. arizona state
   25. wake forest

    

   https://apnews.com/APTop25CollegeFootballPoll

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

On 10/13/2019 at 2:11 PM, futureman said:

well everyone left on the schedule is ranked lower.  we won’t get jumped by anyone left on the schedule unless we lose to one of them.  so, yes, 100%.  thus ‘presumably’ is wrong. 

‘Presumably’

[futureman 22,418]

I had forgotten about that.  nice that you cared enough to dig it up.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

Just now, futureman said:

I had forgotten about that.  nice that you cared enough to dig it up.

You say a ton of dumb shit, it’s understandable.

[futureman 22,418]

and apparently it sticks in your mind.  good stuff. 

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2,630]

Well. Looks like we might now be underdogs vs Baylor.  
 

so one thing is for sure. We will cover. 
 

Might not win, but cover we will 

[Hagbard Celine 10,771]

regardless of opponent, covering at a neutral site is different than covering in a true road game.  we could be a 2-score dog in waco if we lose before then.

[gmr548 16,531]

Well. Looks like we might now be underdogs vs Baylor.  
 
so one thing is for sure. We will cover. 
 
Might not win, but cover we will 

Given that TCU opened as a favorite for next weekend's game I think it's safe to say that Texas would also be dogs at ISU and Baylor as things stand now.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[LTtxfan 49,007]

College football polls updated after Week 8

AP Top 25

Rank	Team	Points	W-L
1	Alabama	1,486	7-0
2	LSU	1,462	7-0
3	Ohio State	1,429	7-0
4	Clemson	1,408	7-0
5	Oklahoma	1,343	7-0
6	Penn State	1,224	7-0
7	Florida	1,138	7-1
8	Notre Dame	1,058	5-1
9	Auburn	1,054	6-1
10	Georgia	1,031	6-1
11	Oregon	979	6-1
12	Utah	852	6-1
13	Wisconsin	767	6-1
14	Baylor	732	7-0
15	Texas	627	5-2
16	SMU	587	7-0
17	Minnesota	577	7-0
18	Cincinnati	468	6-1
19	Michigan	440	5-2
20	Iowa	347	5-2
21	App State	286	6-0
22	Boise State	225	6-1
23	Iowa State	185	5-2
24	Arizona State	134	5-2
25	Wake Forest	118	6-1

Others receiving votes: Memphis 87; Virginia 29; San Diego State 17; Pittsburgh 17; Washington 15; Navy 9; Texas A&M 6; Missouri 4; UCF 3; USC 3; Louisiana Tech 2; Tulane 1

 

 

Coaches Poll

Rank	Team	No. 1 votes	W-L
1	Alabama	44	7-0
2	Clemson	10	7-0
3	LSU	3	7-0
4	Ohio State	8	7-0
5	Oklahoma	0	7-0
6	Penn State	0	7-0
7	Notre Dame	0	5-1
8	Florida	0	7-1
9	Georgia	0	6-1
10	Auburn	0	6-1
11	Oregon	0	6-1
12	Utah	0	6-1
13	Wisconsin	0	6-1
14	Baylor	0	7-0
15	Texas	0	5-2
16	Minnesota	0	7-0
17	SMU	0	7-0
18	Cincinnati	0	6-1
19	Iowa	0	5-2
20	Michigan	0	5-2
21	Boise State	0	6-1
22	App State	0	6-0
23	Wake Forest	0	6-1
24	Arizona State	0	5-2
25	Memphis	0	6-1

Dropped out: No. 23 Washington; No. 25 Temple

Others receiving votes: Iowa State 83; Virginia 61; San Diego State 45; Navy 24; Pittsburgh 18; Washington 16; Tulane 8; Texas A&M 8; Louisiana Tech 7; Central Florida 6; Temple 3; Virginia Tech 2; Utah State 1; UAB 1; Indiana 1

[ztejas 43,269]

We need a Baylor/UT/SMU round robin

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,785]

Some current NY6 bowl projections....

Cotton - SMU vs Georgia 

Orange - UVA vs Notre Dame 

Rose - Oregon vs PedoState 

Sugar - Baylor vs LSU

Yikes. I can't remember a slate of games looking as sorry as this.... 

[SwanderedTalent 5,761]

4 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Some current NY6 bowl projections....

Cotton - SMU vs Georgia 

Orange - UVA vs Notre Dame 

Rose - Oregon vs PedoState 

Sugar - Baylor vs LSU

Yikes. I can't remember a slate of games looking as sorry as this.... 

teams no one wants to watch in bold

[VABuckeye 2,472]

5 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Some current NY6 bowl projections....

Cotton - SMU vs Georgia 

Orange - UVA vs Notre Dame 

Rose - Oregon vs PedoState 

Sugar - Baylor vs LSU

Yikes. I can't remember a slate of games looking as sorry as this.... 

Other than the Rose Bowl that's a terrible slate of games.

[TXSooner518 2,432]

Yeah a couple factors make this the likely worst set of games ever.

The bowls have much less flexibility with matchups this year because both semis are the games without conference tie-ins.

Also the ACC not having a viable second team will result in an unranked Pitt or UVA or Wake stinking up a Ny6 bowl assuming Clemson makes the playoffs.

They need to eliminate the requirement that a conference gets a second team no matter what if they send a team to the playoffs. Also they need to either rotate bowl ties more often or eliminate them (sure keep the Rose when they aren’t a playoff) to keep matchups fresh and have interesting games.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,785]

11 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

Other than the Rose Bowl that's a terrible slate of games.

Agreed, I would love to watch Oregon pound PedoState in the Rose, but you can't ever count on Oregon for anything. 

 

10 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Yeah a couple factors make this the likely worst set of games ever.

The bowls have much less flexibility with matchups this year because both semis are the games without conference tie-ins.

Also the ACC not having a viable second team will result in an unranked Pitt or UVA or Wake stinking up a Ny6 bowl assuming Clemson makes the playoffs.

They need to eliminate the requirement that a conference gets a second team no matter what if they send a team to the playoffs. Also they need to either rotate bowl ties more often or eliminate them (sure keep the Rose when they aren’t a playoff) to keep matchups fresh and have interesting games.

 

This is where I think the ACC gets the short end of the stick. What have teams like Iowa, ISU, Texas, Michigan, and ASU done that Pitt hasn't to deserve a ranking while Pitt is unranked? 

Having said that, Pitt or UVA will probably exit the ACCCG at 9-4 and either unranked or ranked in the 20s, so the point still stands. 

[TwiceHorn 31,313]

21 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

teams no one wants to watch in bold

Nobody may want to watch SMU or UVa as a general proposition.  But if they were to put a beat down on UGa or ND, that would be some good football, and probably draw some eyeballs.

[RoundRobin 828]

9 hours ago, ztejas said:

We need a Baylor/UT/SMU round robin

I'll kick the shit out of all of them. 

[LTbear 4,161]

1 hour ago, VABuckeye said:

Other than the Rose Bowl that's a terrible slate of games.

I disagree. Though the game I'm looking at would, admittedly, probably go very poorly for me.

[SwanderedTalent 5,761]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

 But if they were to put a beat down on UGa or ND, that would be some good football, and probably draw some eyeballs.

Disagree-- the only hope those programs have for drawing eyeballs is a close, exciting game. Just guessing, but I bet the Baylor-MSU Cotton Bowl vastly outdrew the TCU-Ole Miss Peach Bowl, for example, adjusting for other factors. 

[TXSooner518 2,432]

2 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

This is where I think the ACC gets the short end of the stick. What have teams like Iowa, ISU, Texas, Michigan, and ASU done that Pitt hasn't to deserve a ranking while Pitt is unranked? 

Having said that, Pitt or UVA will probably exit the ACCCG at 9-4 and either unranked or ranked in the 20s, so the point still stands. 

Pitt lost 30-14 to a meh UVa team, and has wins by 10 over Ohio, 3 over Delaware, 3 over Duke, 7 over Syracuse, and 1 over UCF. The UCF win is solid, the others are below average to dreadful. 

In FPI, Pitt is 55 (Iowa - 19, ISU - 16 , Texas - 24, Michigan - 15 , ASU - 37)

Don't like FPI? Sagarin has Pitt at 45 (51 in its Predictor). The 5 teams you list are 14, 15, 17, 20 and 32 in Sagarin.

All this said, looking at their schedule, they look like a solid bet to get to the ACC title game maybe even 10-2, and if so, they will be ranked like 15 even though they aren't NEARLY the 15th best team in the nation. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,785]

29 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Pitt lost 30-14 to a meh UVa team, and has wins by 10 over Ohio, 3 over Delaware, 3 over Duke, 7 over Syracuse, and 1 over UCF. The UCF win is solid, the others are below average to dreadful. 

In FPI, Pitt is 55 (Iowa - 19, ISU - 16 , Texas - 24, Michigan - 15 , ASU - 37)

Don't like FPI? Sagarin has Pitt at 45 (51 in its Predictor). The 5 teams you list are 14, 15, 17, 20 and 32 in Sagarin.

All this said, looking at their schedule, they look like a solid bet to get to the ACC title game maybe even 10-2, and if so, they will be ranked like 15 even though they aren't NEARLY the 15th best team in the nation. 

 

I mean, I get what you are saying, but the voters and coaches aren't looking at Sagarin or FPI to justify leaving Pitt out. If Pitt was a Big 10 team, I think they'd be ranked. They have a good win against UCF, a loss to a decent UVA team, and a close loss in the road to the 6th ranked team in the country. On paper, their resume is exactly the same as those other teams with a solid win and a couple of decent losses and not much special after that. 

[TXSooner518 2,432]

36 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

I mean, I get what you are saying, but the voters and coaches aren't looking at Sagarin or FPI to justify leaving Pitt out. If Pitt was a Big 10 team, I think they'd be ranked. They have a good win against UCF, a loss to a decent UVA team, and a close loss in the road to the 6th ranked team in the country. On paper, their resume is exactly the same as those other teams with a solid win and a couple of decent losses and not much special after that. 

Man, their resume is simply not the same, even without computers. I agree the voters aren't looking at those, I gave them to show it isn't like the voters are overlooking an actual good team. You're completely overlooking Pitt's close calls against bad to horrible teams. They played like a "Top 25" team in 2 of their 7 games (UCF and PSU). Also UVA is pushing "decent." They scored 9 points in a loss to a horrid Miami team, but blew Pitt out.

Iowa has beaten Iowa State, and has one-score losses to top 20 teams. Against their 4 scrub opponents, they won by 45, 24, and 30 points before a meh 6 point win over Purdue this week (led by 13 until Purdue scored with less than 30 seconds left). They played like a "Top 25" team in 6 of their 7 games. 

Iowa State has 2 losses to Top 25 teams by a combined 3 points. They struggled with Northern Iowa in the opener, but all their other wins are double digits, including wins by 25, 24, and 10 in conference, and by 52 OOC. They played like a "Top 25" team in 6 of their 7 games.

Texas has 2 losses to Top 5 teams by a touchdown each. They obv struggled with Kansas, but blew out La Tech and Rice, and handled WV on the road by double digits and beat an OSU team by 6 that would def be favored neutral field over UVA. They played like a "Top 25" team in 6 of their 7 games.

Michigan has a win over a top 20 team (again something Pitt does not), a loss by 7 on the road to a top 10 team, and a blowout road loss to a top 15 team. They won games against their weak opponents by 19, 17, and 3 in OT.  I will say they played like a "Top 25" team in 5 of their 7 games (excluding Whisky and Army). 

Arizona State is somewhat closer, but is buoyed by having won 2 games over teams that were then-ranked, including winning at Michigan State. They dominated one cupcake, but did only beat Sac State (which is one of the best FCS teams but still) by 12. Colorado not a great loss, but lost by 3. Got handled 21-3 by Utah.  They played like a "Top 25" team in I would say 4 of their 7 games (excluding Sac State and Colorado for sure, losing by 18 at Utah is marginal). 

These resumes simply are not even close. On paper or in computers.