AP Top 25

[LonghornSean 3942]

We stayed at 15 in this week's AP poll, but plenty of voters did move us down, Kirk Bohls included (from 16 to 21).  Our point total dropped from 672 to 627.  We still had four votes in the top 10 last week, none this week, understandably.

https://collegepolltracker.com/football/team/texas-longhorns/2019

 

Here's the full team distribution view: https://collegepolltracker.com/football/distribution/2019/week-9

Edited October 21, 2019 by LonghornSean

[LTbear 4161]

1 hour ago, LonghornSean said:

We stayed at 15 in this week's AP poll, but plenty of voters did move us down, Kirk Bohls included (from 16 to 21).  Our point total dropped from 672 to 627.  We still had four votes in the top 10 last week, none this week, understandably.

https://collegepolltracker.com/football/team/texas-longhorns/2019

 

Here's the full team distribution view: https://collegepolltracker.com/football/distribution/2019/week-9

LOL at some lone fucker rating Aggy 20th when apparently everyone else has them unranked. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5785]

4 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Man, their resume is simply not the same, even without computers. I agree the voters aren't looking at those, I gave them to show it isn't like the voters are overlooking an actual good team. You're completely overlooking Pitt's close calls against bad to horrible teams. They played like a "Top 25" team in 2 of their 7 games (UCF and PSU). Also UVA is pushing "decent." They scored 9 points in a loss to a horrid Miami team, but blew Pitt out.

Iowa has beaten Iowa State, and has one-score losses to top 20 teams. Against their 4 scrub opponents, they won by 45, 24, and 30 points before a meh 6 point win over Purdue this week (led by 13 until Purdue scored with less than 30 seconds left). They played like a "Top 25" team in 6 of their 7 games. 

Iowa State has 2 losses to Top 25 teams by a combined 3 points. They struggled with Northern Iowa in the opener, but all their other wins are double digits, including wins by 25, 24, and 10 in conference, and by 52 OOC. They played like a "Top 25" team in 6 of their 7 games.

Texas has 2 losses to Top 5 teams by a touchdown each. They obv struggled with Kansas, but blew out La Tech and Rice, and handled WV on the road by double digits and beat an OSU team by 6 that would def be favored neutral field over UVA. They played like a "Top 25" team in 6 of their 7 games.

Michigan has a win over a top 20 team (again something Pitt does not), a loss by 7 on the road to a top 10 team, and a blowout road loss to a top 15 team. They won games against their weak opponents by 19, 17, and 3 in OT.  I will say they played like a "Top 25" team in 5 of their 7 games (excluding Whisky and Army). 

Arizona State is somewhat closer, but is buoyed by having won 2 games over teams that were then-ranked, including winning at Michigan State. They dominated one cupcake, but did only beat Sac State (which is one of the best FCS teams but still) by 12. Colorado not a great loss, but lost by 3. Got handled 21-3 by Utah.  They played like a "Top 25" team in I would say 4 of their 7 games (excluding Sac State and Colorado for sure, losing by 18 at Utah is marginal). 

These resumes simply are not even close. On paper or in computers. 

Fair enough 

[gmr548 16531]

Some current NY6 bowl projections....
Cotton - SMU vs Georgia 
Orange - UVA vs Notre Dame 
Rose - Oregon vs PedoState 
Sugar - Baylor vs LSU
Yikes. I can't remember a slate of games looking as sorry as this.... 

If OU wins the B12 and goes to the playoff, whuch is what this projection is assuming, the B12 runner up goes to the Sugar Bowl regardless of ranking. As bad as Texas has been the past couple weeks, I'm not there on thinking Baylor ends up in Arlington.

I'd watch pony vs Georgia for the lulz.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[utee94 15746]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

If OU wins the B12 and goes to the playoff, whuch is what this projection is assuming, the B12 runner up goes to the Sugar Bowl regardless of ranking. As bad as Texas has been the past couple weeks, I'm not there on thinking Baylor ends up in Arlington.

I'd watch pony vs Georgia for the lulz.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

 

 

Yup, I'd watch ponies vs. Georgia for the SMU win...

And I don't think it's crazy at all to think Texas loses to Baylor while Baylor's only regular season loss is to OU and Texas therefore misses the B12 CCG.  Baylor loses to OU twice and goes to the Sugar Bowl.  I'd also not be surprised with a Baylor victory over LSU in that case since the Tigers obviously won't want to be there.
 

[DDD Dad 14268]

9 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Some current NY6 bowl projections....

Cotton - SMU vs Georgia 

Orange - UVA vs Notre Dame 

Rose - Oregon vs PedoState 

Sugar - Baylor vs LSU

Yikes. I can't remember a slate of games looking as sorry as this.... 

I don't see a UVA and ND rematch in the cards.  Just makes no sense for a lot of reasons.

[Bullneck 19026]

I wonder where Baylor would be with a loss at Tech.

[OU Sucks 8747]

3 hours ago, LTbear said:

LOL at some lone fucker rating Aggy 20th when apparently everyone else has them unranked. 

Were you unimpressed with their 3 moral victories, where they dared to stand on the same field as college football's elite (and also Auburn)?

[LTbear 4161]

1 hour ago, Bullneck said:

I wonder where Baylor would be with a loss at Tech.

Around 20-25 is my (completely worthless) guess. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by LTbear

[notre dame joe 173]

On 10/21/2019 at 5:55 AM, TXSooner518 said:

Yeah a couple factors make this the likely worst set of games ever.

The bowls have much less flexibility with matchups this year because both semis are the games without conference tie-ins.

Also the ACC not having a viable second team will result in an unranked Pitt or UVA or Wake stinking up a Ny6 bowl assuming Clemson makes the playoffs.

They need to eliminate the requirement that a conference gets a second team no matter what if they send a team to the playoffs. Also they need to either rotate bowl ties more often or eliminate them (sure keep the Rose when they aren’t a playoff) to keep matchups fresh and have interesting games.

Without the ACC contract, the Orange Bowl becomes just another Gator.  They should, but never will, stagger the Sugar and Rose tie-ins so every other NY6 isn't stuck with G5 vs Bronze Medal P5.

[notre dame joe 173]

23 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

I don't see a UVA and ND rematch in the cards.  Just makes no sense for a lot of reasons.

The Orange bowl may decline a rematch. But I do not think they would pass on Notre Dame, they cannot pass on ACC#2.

[JBJ 3649]

CFP odds, with at-large odds for @TXSooner518

I corrected an issue with rating deviations (was pulling the team only, now pulling the combination of team and opponent.)  This impacts non-competitive games more than others: a 95% win chance might fall to 90%, but a 50/50 game is unchanged.  The overall impact was to bring Clemson down to a more realistic number, and give certain underdogs a slightly better chance.

A note that I didn't consider CCG losers into at-large bids, what's everyone's thought on this? Would the committee put in an undefeated LSU who loses in the CCG?  What about if OU/Baylor traded losses but otherwise won out - would both be in consideration?

CFP odds:

1: Clemson - 74% (1% at large - included)

2: Ohio State - 69% (4% at large)

3: Oklahoma - 65% (<1% at large)

4: Alabama - 45% (5% at large)

5: LSU - 38% (11% at large)

6: Oregon - 22%

7: Penn State - 20% (15% at large)

8: Utah - 14%

9: Auburn - 13%

10: Baylor - 8% (2% at large)

11: Notre Dame - 5%

12: Florida - 5%

13: Wisconsin - 5% (yeah...so that happened)

14: Georgia - 5%

15: Wake Forest - 2% (yes, this is a thing)

16: Minnesota - 0.6% (0.5% at large)

17: SMU - 0.6%

Doomsday scenario (the field) 10%

Edited October 22, 2019 by JBJ

[gmr548 16531]

CFP odds, with at-large odds for [mention=308]TXSooner518[/mention]
I corrected an issue with rating deviations (was pulling the team only, now pulling the combination of team and opponent.)  This impacts non-competitive games more than others: a 95% win chance might fall to 90%, but a 50/50 game is unchanged.  The overall impact was to bring Clemson down to a more realistic number, and give certain underdogs a slightly better chance.
A note that I didn't consider CCG losers into at-large bids, what's everyone's thought on this? Would the committee put in an undefeated LSU who loses in the CCG?  What about if OU/Baylor traded losses but otherwise won out - would both be in consideration?
CFP odds:
1: Clemson - 74% (1% at large - included)
2: Ohio State - 69% (4% at large)
3: Oklahoma - 65% ( 4: Alabama - 45% (5% at large)
5: LSU - 38% (11% at large)
6: Oregon - 22%
7: Penn State - 20% (15% at large)
8: Utah - 14%
9: Auburn - 13%
10: Baylor - 8% (2% at large)
11: Notre Dame - 5%
12: Florida - 5%
13: Wisconsin - 5% (yeah...so that happened)
14: Georgia - 5%
15: Wake Forest - 2% (yes, this is a thing)
16: Minnesota - 0.6% (0.5% at large)
17: SMU - 0.6%
Doomsday scenario (the field) 10%

I think LSU specifically is the one team that could get in as an at large. The way you lay at out, at 12-1, they'd have:

Road win over Texas;
Home win over Florida;
I don't know where they play Auburn, but a win over them;
Road win over Bama;
Total destruction of aggy in recent memory;
Undefeated regular season spent basically entirely in the top five.

Vs

Close neutral loss to UGA/Florida

Most teams inn n that situation wouldn't have that kind of resume and wouldn't be considered, but I could see it, especially because they'd almost certainly be at number one going into the game.




Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[4th&Five 41461]

Auburn goes to BR. 

[LonghornSean 3942]

Why are people still voting for us?

AP Top 25 - 10/27/2019

 

RK	TEAM	REC	PTS	TREND
1	LSU(17)	8-0	1476	1
2	Alabama(21)	8-0	1474	1
3	Ohio State(17)	8-0	1468	-
4	Clemson(7)	8-0	1406	-
5	Penn State	8-0	1302	1
6	Florida	7-1	1226	1
7	Oregon	7-1	1108	4
8	Georgia	6-1	1093	2
9	Utah	7-1	1032	3
10	Oklahoma	7-1	1017	5
11	Auburn	6-2	910	2
12	Baylor	7-0	882	2
13	Minnesota	8-0	778	4
14	Michigan	6-2	744	5
15	SMU	8-0	666	1
16	Notre Dame	5-2	563	8
17	Cincinnati	6-1	524	1
18	Wisconsin	6-2	513	5
19	Iowa	6-2	456	1
20	Appalachian State	7-0	393	1
21	Boise State	6-1	280	1
22	Kansas State	5-2	218	NR
23	Wake Forest	6-1	200	2
24	Memphis	7-1	188	NR
25	San Diego State	7-1	50	NR

 

Complete Rankings

Others receiving votes: Texas 49, Navy 43, UCF 33, Washington 19, Texas A&M 14, USC 11, Louisiana Tech 6, Indiana 4, Oklahoma State 1, Pittsburgh 1, Iowa State 1

Dropped from rankings: Texas 15, Iowa State 23, Arizona State 24

[Sgt Hulk 13648]

Bwahahahahhaa

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630]

Good. More pressure to make changes 

[EuroHorn 3204]

Right now we’ll be lucky to become bowl eligible 

[Chad 1728]

How the fuck is OU ahead of Baylor?

[Bigjohns97 125]

11 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

Why are people still voting for us?

AP Top 25 - 10/27/2019

 

RK	TEAM	REC	PTS	TREND
1	LSU(17)	8-0	1476	1
2	Alabama(21)	8-0	1474	1
3	Ohio State(17)	8-0	1468	-
4	Clemson(7)	8-0	1406	-
5	Penn State	8-0	1302	1
6	Florida	7-1	1226	1
7	Oregon	7-1	1108	4
8	Georgia	6-1	1093	2
9	Utah	7-1	1032	3
10	Oklahoma	7-1	1017	5
11	Auburn	6-2	910	2
12	Baylor	7-0	882	2
13	Minnesota	8-0	778	4
14	Michigan	6-2	744	5
15	SMU	8-0	666	1
16	Notre Dame	5-2	563	8
17	Cincinnati	6-1	524	1
18	Wisconsin	6-2	513	5
19	Iowa	6-2	456	1
20	Appalachian State	7-0	393	1
21	Boise State	6-1	280	1
22	Kansas State	5-2	218	NR
23	Wake Forest	6-1	200	2
24	Memphis	7-1	188	NR
25	San Diego State	7-1	50	NR

 

Complete Rankings

Others receiving votes: Texas 49, Navy 43, UCF 33, Washington 19, Texas A&M 14, USC 11, Louisiana Tech 6, Indiana 4, Oklahoma State 1, Pittsburgh 1, Iowa State 1

Dropped from rankings: Texas 15, Iowa State 23, Arizona State 24

For the lulz obviously

[The Ace of Aces 5106]

The top 4 are probably far and way better than #5 down than in many years. OSU will roll PSU. 

[gclass 120]

^^^ please DEAR GOD, please do not let us lose many of our MAGNIFICENT RECRUITS... AMEN!

[Goodman 3273]

39 minutes ago, Chad said:

How the fuck is OU ahead of Baylor?

Because Baylor is full of fucks fucking when they are told not to fuck, coaches being allowed to attempt hiding it all, a school protecting them and a local PD that follows the church's orders.

[notre dame joe 173]

47 minutes ago, Chad said:

How the fuck is OU ahead of Baylor?

Everyone knows the other shoe will drop with Baylor, Minny, Utah etc.  They just don't have LSU's media backers.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23364]

LSU #1 lol

[El Diablo 4232]

2 hours ago, Chad said:

How the fuck is OU ahead of Baylor?

They beat a highly ranked Texas team. The SEC effect can be found throughout the polls, it's just more noticeable with the SEC due to the percentage of the teams that are ranked highly to start. 

[bamachine 1230]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

LSU #1 lol

Just as I hoped.

[BradWilcox 115]

On 8/19/2019 at 12:04 PM, TeddyBearStallion said:

Every year we talk about how polls shouldn't come out till October and seeing this just keeps that annual tradition going.  

Overrated:

8. Florida

9. Notre Dame

12. Aggie

14. Utah

15. Penn State

17. UCF

18. Mich St

20. Iowa

24. Nebraska

 

Texas dropped out of the Top 25 after this loss to TCU. So what does that tells us about overrated teams? Doesn't look good for Tom's future in Austin unless he starts working miracles. TO has got to go!

[BradWilcox 115]

3 hours ago, Chad said:

How the fuck is OU ahead of Baylor?

How the fuck is Appalachian State ahead of UT? My guess is the media still believes OU will beat Baylor when they meet and go on to play for and probably win the conference championship game. Regardless of injuries I'm still scratching my head over that last second win over Kansas! 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21783]

How the fuck is Appalachian State ahead of UT?

Because they would put up 600 yards of offense and kick our ass

[BradWilcox 115]

5 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Because they would put up 600 yards of offense and kick our ass

I'm not sure to take that in jest or actually believe you. Right now I'm not going to doubt anything no matter how ridiculous it sounds. 

[Newdoc 3433]

29 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Because they would put up 600 yards of offense and kick our ass

As may 3 out the 4 teams that remain on Texas’ schedule. We may have to beat Tech to become bowl eligible. Let that sink in. And based on the last two weeks performances, that’s not a chicken little prognostication.

[SubliminalHorn 6690]

3 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

As may 3 out the 4 teams that remain on Texas’ schedule. We may have to beat Tech to become bowl eligible. Let that sink in. And based on the last two weeks performances, that’s not a chicken little prognostication.

This needs to happen to force changes. Fuck Tom. He’s done here. 

[bullet 1596]

5 hours ago, LonghornSean said:

Why are people still voting for us?

AP Top 25 - 10/27/2019

 

RK	TEAM	REC	PTS	TREND
1	LSU(17)	8-0	1476	1
2	Alabama(21)	8-0	1474	1
3	Ohio State(17)	8-0	1468	-
4	Clemson(7)	8-0	1406	-
5	Penn State	8-0	1302	1
6	Florida	7-1	1226	1
7	Oregon	7-1	1108	4
8	Georgia	6-1	1093	2
9	Utah	7-1	1032	3
10	Oklahoma	7-1	1017	5
11	Auburn	6-2	910	2
12	Baylor	7-0	882	2
13	Minnesota	8-0	778	4
14	Michigan	6-2	744	5
15	SMU	8-0	666	1
16	Notre Dame	5-2	563	8
17	Cincinnati	6-1	524	1
18	Wisconsin	6-2	513	5
19	Iowa	6-2	456	1
20	Appalachian State	7-0	393	1
21	Boise State	6-1	280	1
22	Kansas State	5-2	218	NR
23	Wake Forest	6-1	200	2
24	Memphis	7-1	188	NR
25	San Diego State	7-1	50	NR

 

Complete Rankings

Others receiving votes: Texas 49, Navy 43, UCF 33, Washington 19, Texas A&M 14, USC 11, Louisiana Tech 6, Indiana 4, Oklahoma State 1, Pittsburgh 1, Iowa State 1

Dropped from rankings: Texas 15, Iowa State 23, Arizona State 24

Well they have to vote for 25 and there are only about 20 teams worth voting for.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630]

LSU so high is a joke. We almost beat them and we suck. Bama is going to murder them even without tua 

[Extra Anejo 99]

23 minutes ago, Xian said:

LSU so high is a joke. We almost beat them and we suck. Bama is going to murder them even without tua 

No, we were good back then, but the coaching staff has been making adjustments to fix us.

[Zavala 1384]

1 hour ago, Xian said:

LSU so high is a joke. We almost beat them and we suck. Bama is going to murder them even without tua 

Lulz they are UNDEFEATED putting them anywhere in the top 5 makes sense.

I don't think a single big 12 team finishes in the top 10.

[NowThis 931]

22 minutes ago, Zavala said:

Lulz they are UNDEFEATED putting them anywhere in the top 5 makes sense.

I don't think a single big 12 team finishes in the top 10.

OU will

[El Squared 1793]

9 minutes ago, NowThis said:

OU will

Doubt Gooner will lose again. They have coaches.

We have posers cashing very large checks, that is all.

We are jokes even in the B12, let that sink in. Paying more for far less, it’s a Texas tradition.

Edited October 28, 2019 by El Squared

[NowThis 931]

1 minute ago, El Squared said:

Doubt Gooner will lose again. They have coaches.

OU Baylor might play twice.  Going to be a fun watch.

[Scholz 11937]

Dropped out of the AP as expected.  But...

Coaches still have us at #24.  Best damn 3-loss team in the country!!

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

Damn. Guess we should have lost to South Carolina at home and we would have dropped less. 

[HtownHorn 14499]

Haha. American has as many teams ranked in the Top 25 as the Big 12. Gosh we fucking suck.

[Valmy77 13122]

10 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Haha. American has as many teams ranked in the Top 25 as the Big 12. Gosh we fucking suck.

So tiresome. The conference doesn't suck...well ok the teams in it don't suck. One would hope all these years playing these schools some of you guys would at least give them a little respect. They aren't shit, they beat us plenty.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21783]

We still suck

[HtownHorn 14499]

40 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

So tiresome. The conference doesn't suck...well ok the teams in it don't suck. One would hope all these years playing these schools some of you guys would at least give them a little respect. They aren't shit, they beat us plenty.

I was saying Texas sucks. Not the Big 12.

[JBJ 3649]

CFP odds:

1: Ohio State - 84% (9% at large)

2: Clemson - 82% (<1%)

3: LSU - 66% (36%)

4: Alabama - 43% (2%)

5: Utah - 27% (moved up with Oregon falling in the power ratings, as those two are the likely P12 finalists.  Big game vs Washington this week.)

6: Penn State - 23% (19%)

7: Oregon - 23%

8: Oklahoma - 22% (the biggest drop this week, for obvious reasons)

9: Baylor - 13% (2%)

10: Florida - 7%

11: Georgia - 5% (UF-UGA is an elimination game this weekend)

12: Wake Forest - 1%

13:  Minnesota - 1%

14: SMU - 0.3% (vs Memphis this weekend, upset alert)

Doomsday scenario (the field) 3%

Eliminated: Auburn, Notre Dame, Wisconsin

[Funk Doctor Spock 11946]

Ohio State will go in dry on everyone on that list. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5785]

12 hours ago, Spider2YBanana said:

Ohio State will go in dry on everyone on that list. 

Lulz no. 

But these fuckers sure are going to try to get two secsecsec teams in. Oregon and Oklahoma have a bullseye on them... 

[Zavala 1384]

31 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Lulz no. 

But these fuckers sure are going to try to get two secsecsec teams in. Oregon and Oklahoma have a bullseye on them... 

BlowU is out brah.

2 SEC teams was always the plan.

It could be 3 (THREE) SECSECSEC teams and Ohio State... Maybe Clemson would just have to lose somehow.

Florida wins out and beats LSU in the SEC championship game. They are in with their only loss to LSU. LSU is in with their only loss in the SEC championship game rematch with Florida, and because they beat Alabama. Alabama is in because well.. they are Alabama and their only loss is to LSU...

I'm only half trolling, if the "committee" $ works out for all SEC playoffs they would do it.