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Texas 2020 general election

Nice Guy Eddie

By Nice Guy Eddie
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13522

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in Harris county I was impressed with the new process to quickly scan your ID to check you in.  Previously the olds had to look you up in the paper docs in front of them.  As much as I know the Voter ID laws were about preventing poors from voting, it does allow for more efficiency. Not to mention that it helps facilitate voting from any location.

In theory, you shouldn't even be required to register to vote any more, and we don't need as many election workers.  In the future, I see us walking up to the booth, swipe your ID which knows who you are and your address, match your fingerprint to the DPS data, then your ballot is presented.

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Larry T. Spider
Larry T. Spider

10 years ago - solid republican voter 8 years ago - luke warm republican voter 4 years ago - luke warm Democrat voter Now - Democrat donor and solid voter who will be an insufferable pr

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

Gene administers a smackdown   

Homercles
Homercles

So...we get no straight ticket next year due to the GOP?  And it was their idea?   Why? Ill be that sumbitch that takes 10m to vote as I meticulously select D for every item down to county trash

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bolverk

bolverk 29714

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In theory, you shouldn't even be required to register to vote any more, and we don't need as many election workers.  In the future, I see us walking up to the booth, swipe your ID which knows who you are and your address, match your fingerprint to the DPS data, then your ballot is presented.

In a sane/rational/fair country where we ensure everyone has equally easy access to current ID and is automagically registered, that general type of process should be a complete no-brainer. I'm pretty sure DPS knows whether I'm a non-felon citizen.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

in Harris county I was impressed with the new process to quickly scan your ID to check you in.  Previously the olds had to look you up in the paper docs in front of them.  As much as I know the Voter ID laws were about preventing poors from voting, it does allow for more efficiency. Not to mention that it helps facilitate voting from any location.

In theory, you shouldn't even be required to register to vote any more, and we don't need as many election workers.  In the future, I see us walking up to the booth, swipe your ID which knows who you are and your address, match your fingerprint to the DPS data, then your ballot is presented.

Glad to see the big cities are streamlining the process. The last thing we need is people not voting because of long lines.

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kevwun

kevwun 15856

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That one got smoked in my County.  It is always weird to see the random ones that strike a nerve with people.  That one would have probably been one of the more helpful amendments in this batch.

Edited by kevwun
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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3 hours ago, Pancho said:

What are Gov Hotwheels and Texas Republicans up to now?

 

Texas republicans are hell bent on keeping this state red. They are literally doing all they can.

 

they have passed voter ID laws. They got rid of straight ticket voting. Before 2016, the business class GOP and the tea party were “battling it out” for republican supremacy in Texas. Since the 2018 election, everything has changed. The party is suddenly unified and they’re end goal is to keep the democrats down as long as possible. Goeb even endorsed Cornyn. If the democrats weren’t threatening, I bet the Texas tea party would’ve tried to primary Cornyn.

I hope the democrats can break through and get a big statewide win in the next few years because this current regime is insufferable and crooked as fuck. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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I found it interesting that there are a large number of counties where the over 65 year olds are a relatively small percentage of the eligible voters. While some of these are already blue the others could turn blue if enough younger voters actually vote, at least in counties where the young aren't totally brainwashed too.

Brazos 11.2%, Travis 12.3%, Coryell 13.0%, Denton 13.1%, Gaines 13.5%, Garza 13.5%, Loving 13.6%, Hays 13.8%, Webb 13.9%, Harris 13.9%, Ector 14.1%, Dallas 14.3%, Midland 14.5%, Collin 14.6%, Bell 14.7%, Fort Bend 14.7%, Tarrant 15.0%, Walker 15.0%, Andrews 15.2%, Bee 15.4%, Moore 15.5%, Reeves 15.5%, Waller 15.6%, Brazoria 15.7%, Chambers 15.8%, Frio 15.9%, Reagan 15.9%, Bexar 16.0%, Lubbock 16.0%, Williamson 16.1%, Ochiltree 16.1%, Hidalgo 16.2%, Howard 16.4%, Dallam 16.5%, El Paso 16.5%, Kaufman 16.5%, Potter 16.8%, Martin 16.8%, Maverick 16.9%, Starr 16.9%, Rockwall 17.0%, Crane 17.0%, La Salle 17.0%, Kleberg 17.1%, Ellis 17.3%, Liberty 17.3%, Yoakum 17.4%, Winkler 17.5%, Montgomery 17.5%, Pecos 17.5%, Erath 17.6%, Karnes 17.9%, 

There are also some counties with a lot of older folks 65+ where Republican support is dying off.

Llano 42.1%, Sabine 37.9%, Motley 36.7%, Gillespie 36.6%, Menard 36.5%, Mason 36.2%, Jeff Davis 36.1%, Terrell 36.0%, Kimble 35.6%, Edwards 35.1%, Real 34.7%, Throckmorton 34.5%, Mills 34.5%, Kerr 34.0%, Foard 33.7%, Coke 33.7%, Wood 33.6%, Aransas 33.6%, Stonewall 33.5%, Kent 33.2%, Trinity 32.7%, Hamilton 32.0%, Cottle 31.9%, Bandera 31.8%, Concho 31.8%, San Augustine 31.7%, Baylor 31.6%, Briscoe 31.6%, Coleman 31.2%, Fayette 31.1%, Hood 31.1%, Marion 31.1%, Comanche 31.1%, Bosque 31.0%, Leon 31.0%, Presidio 30.9%, Hall 30.7%, Fisher 30.4%, Lavaca 30.3%, Red River 30.3%, Rains 30.3%, Donley 30.2%, Borden 30.0%

Data from the Texas Association of Counties
   

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Abbott didn’t support a single primary challenge to an incumbent this cycle. I think they are terrified primary upsets could lead to the Texas House flipping 

He even endorsed Sarah Davis

It’s no secret. They’re doing all they can to keep power. 
 

remember a few years ago the freedom caucus was fighting the old guard for power?  Danny Goeb has endorsed John Cornyn for re-election and they’re putting their differences aside to fight the democrats.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89779

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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

That name sounds familiar.

Oh yea.  Draining the swamp.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/sen-loeffler-to-help-oversee-cftc-which-oversees-husbands-company.html

Quote

After becoming a U.S. senator this week, Kelly Loeffler won assignment to a committee that oversees the agency in charge of regulating her husband’s business, setting the grounds for a potential conflict of interest.

Loeffler’s husband, Jeffrey Sprecher, is CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and which owns the New York Stock Exchange. The Senate Agriculture Committee, which Loeffler joined following her Senate confirmation, oversees the CFTC.

ICE’s annual report notes that the company is “subject to extensive regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”

Loeffler, R-Ga., and Sprecher married in 2004, before the company went public in 2005. She had worked at ICE, leading the company’s investor relations and communications programs for 15 years before slipping into Bakkt, a crypto trading platform created by ICE, as CEO in 2018.

 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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I read elsewhere that the Texas Republican party has not grown in Texas in the last 15 years and I found the numbers interesting.

Texas 2004 4526917 (Bush)
Texas 2008 4479328 (McCain)
Texas 2012 4569843 (Romney)
Texas 2016 4685047 (Trump)
Texas 2018 4656196 (Abbott) 4260553 (Cruz)

It appears the they have reached a plateau of sorts. It is no wonder that Cornyn's team is making a point to sign up a million new Republican voters as it will take over 5 million to win in 2020 and operating at replacement level will not be good enough. In 2004 Texas had 22.4 million people and in 2018 28.7 million per Google. 

I think they will pass 5 million in 2020, but have trouble getting much past the 2020 total over the next decade.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89779

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6 hours ago, RayDog said:

I read elsewhere that the Texas Republican party has not grown in Texas in the last 15 years and I found the numbers interesting.

Texas 2004 4526917 (Bush)
Texas 2008 4479328 (McCain)
Texas 2012 4569843 (Romney)
Texas 2016 4685047 (Trump)
Texas 2018 4656196 (Abbott) 4260553 (Cruz)

It appears the they have reached a plateau of sorts. It is no wonder that Cornyn's team is making a point to sign up a million new Republican voters as it will take over 5 million to win in 2020 and operating at replacement level will not be good enough. In 2004 Texas had 22.4 million people and in 2018 28.7 million per Google. 

I think they will pass 5 million in 2020, but have trouble getting much past the 2020 total over the next decade.

They also have to contend with all of the elderly Trumpkins who have passed away.   That’s not easy to replace with the younger generation.   I think W is a piece of shit these days, but his people did a good job of pulling young Republicans like me into the fold in the 90s (and I recall a decent amount of minorities being in the mix, including Hispanics).  

Maybe it’s because I’m an old now, but I just don’t see the Texas/GOP these days pulling in young folks in large numbers like they did in the recent past, and Dear Leader hasn’t helped on the Hispanic front at all.  Not to mention many who have moved here are from more liberal parts of the country.  

I have heard from friends who follow or are still involved in this stuff that there is a lot of concern over the 2018 numbers, and  even more concern over the fact that Trump beat Hillary by only 800,000.  For reference, McCain beat Obama by nearly a million, and Romney beat Obama by 1.2 million.  How does Trump beat the most hated Democrat in our lifetime by only 800,000?

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They also have to contend with all of the elderly Trumpkins who have passed away.   That’s not easy to replace with the younger generation.   I think W is a piece of shit these days, but his people did a good job of pulling young Republicans like me into the fold in the 90s (and I recall a decent amount of minorities being in the mix, including Hispanics).  

Maybe it’s because I’m an old now, but I just don’t see the Texas/GOP these days pulling in young folks in large numbers like they did in the recent past, and Dear Leader hasn’t helped on the Hispanic front at all.  Not to mention many who have moved here are from more liberal parts of the country.  

I have heard from friends who follow or are still involved in this stuff that there is a lot of concern over the 2018 numbers, and  even more concern over the fact that Trump beat Hillary by only 800,000.  For reference, McCain beat Obama by nearly a million, and Romney beat Obama by 1.2 million.  How does Trump beat the most hated Democrat in our lifetime by only 800,000?

 

The rural area population is getting older. Those fuckers vote overwhelmingly republican.

when rural people die in Texas, they generally don’t get replaced like they do in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, austin, and Fort Worth.

people in the big cities are much much more likely to vote democrat. People moving here are much more likely to vote democrat. The repubs do have a long term numbers problem in this state.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89779

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48 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

people in the big cities are much much more likely to vote democrat. People moving here are much more likely to vote democrat. The repubs do have a long term numbers problem in this state.

And they don't seem to care.   They are doing nothing to defend certain groups in Texas that the GOP is maliciously targeting.  They are supporting/defending behavior that runs counter to how many conservatives feel.  They are supporting/defending behavior that turns a lot of the younger folks off, whether it's race-related, or things like trying to make it harder to vote.  

Cruz is up there, cradling Dear Leader's balls for all the world to see.  When he's next up for reelection in 2024, Trump will be out of the White House, and Texas would have gone through another couple of election cycles, and more out-of-staters and younger folks will be voting, with another big chunk of olds having dyed off - Cruz isn't going to be able to walk back a lot of this stuff either, given how recent it was.

And when Texas flips, that's it for the national GOP.

But nobody seems to give a shit.  The younger voters, right now, are having their image of the GOP shaped by Trump and Cruz and Co., whereas my generation had their image of the GOP shaped by Reagan/George H. W. Bush, and then George W. Bush (with a generous helping of a much tamer/more coherent Rush Limbaugh and the like).  There's very little there that's inviting to younger Texans and transplants who weren't born with a trust fund.

Edit: And I'm aware of the irony of that last paragraph, but in the 90s, plenty of us younger Republicans bought into the Reagan mythos - hell, many of us were sad when Nixon died.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

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I’m hopeful that Dems can take back the Texas House this election cycle but for the sake of discussion, let’s say they don’t.  Republicans will pull out all the stops to gerrymander the maps to hold onto control as long as possible. My main wondering is how they can draw a map in 2020 that benefits them but won’t completely trash their chances by 2028. Right now they can draw some 90% dem city districts and that won’t change. But they can draw enough rural areas into suburban districts to keep them red. What happens when these fast growing suburbs turn more blue and completely overwhelm the rural areas they are paired with as far as population? 

Long term it seems like republicans would be better off giving up on some suburbs and drawing the maps to give others more rural areas than is currently needed. They might not get as many seats in the short term but it would protect them more in the longer term. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16608

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8 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I’m hopeful that Dems can take back the Texas House this election cycle but for the sake of discussion, let’s say they don’t.  Republicans will pull out all the stops to gerrymander the maps to hold onto control as long as possible. My main wondering is how they can draw a map in 2020 that benefits them but won’t completely trash their chances by 2028. Right now they can draw some 90% dem city districts and that won’t change. But they can draw enough rural areas into suburban districts to keep them red. What happens when these fast growing suburbs turn more blue and completely overwhelm the rural areas they are paired with as far as population? 

Long term it seems like republicans would be better off giving up on some suburbs and drawing the maps to give others more rural areas than is currently needed. They might not get as many seats in the short term but it would protect them more in the longer term. 

This is likely what will happen. Conceding a few more solid D seats in order to to consolidate power in what will still be a significant R majority in the congressional delegation. EX: Austin metro goes from split however many which ways to two overwhelmingly D seats - saves several of those R seats from getting overwhelmed by Austin area growth like a few of them are on track to right now. Looking at you TX-10.

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