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Texas 2020 general election

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19330

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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Creepy weird crooked eye fucker.

i can’t believe Texas has elected Dan patrick and Ken Paxton twice. Really hoping it doesn’t happen 3x. It’s definitely possible to get rid of them both.

Both of their margins of victory were <3%, and both were running against people I'd never even heard of. 

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Larry T. Spider
Larry T. Spider

10 years ago - solid republican voter 8 years ago - luke warm republican voter 4 years ago - luke warm Democrat voter Now - Democrat donor and solid voter who will be an insufferable pr

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

Gene administers a smackdown   

Homercles
Homercles

So...we get no straight ticket next year due to the GOP?  And it was their idea?   Why? Ill be that sumbitch that takes 10m to vote as I meticulously select D for every item down to county trash

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gmr548

gmr548 16482

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Both of their margins of victory were

Democrats actually put up a decent candidate for AG. Justin Nelson in particular, the candidate for AG, was well qualified, raised a decent amount of money, and had the good sense to tag along with Beto. He was the one Democrat I really thought might win.

Collier, the LtGov candidate was pretty passive and struggled with cash. Former PwC exec that probably would've been a Republican ten years ago. He never really took off, Patrick's just pretty unpopular for an incumbent GOP. Something like 25 percent of the GOP primary went to his opponent, who endorsed Collier immediately afterward.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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6 hours ago, gmr548 said:


Democrats actually put up a decent candidate for AG. Justin Nelson in particular, the candidate for AG, was well qualified, raised a decent amount of money, and had the good sense to tag along with Beto. He was the one Democrat I really thought might win.

Collier, the LtGov candidate was pretty passive and struggled with cash. Former PwC exec that probably would've been a Republican ten years ago. He never really took off, Patrick's just pretty unpopular for an incumbent GOP. Something like 25 percent of the GOP primary went to his opponent, who endorsed Collier immediately afterward.

Patrick will never live the legislative session of 2017 down.

anyone with a brain knows he hijacked that shit for his stupid bathroom bill.

he really should be on borrowed time. I’d be shocked if Texans re-elected him in 2022.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1740

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Although Patrick is a loon who should be thrown off a bridge, he isn’t a completely foolish politician. He knew that 2017 did a number on his reputation, even within his own party. That was the last session that republicans could do whatever they want and barely even pretend democrats exist. Patrick wasted one of their last opportunities on his weird agenda that nobody else really cared about.

In 2019 the makeup of the legislature was more democratic and he dialed it back significantly. Passing a pro public education bill was the top house priority and he didn’t have the senate screw things up even though we all know he’s against the “liberal government indoctrination camps”.

In 2021 and beyond, the legislature will continue to be more blue. It will be interesting how he reacts to his loss of power. The house will be blue sometime in the next few sessions...

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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If Patrick and Paxton would take Patrick's own advice and run straight into the pandemic like the beautiful warriors they are, shouldering that sacrifice for the sake of the economy then perhaps Texans could elect someone who, you know, actually cares about the majority of the people who reside here.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19330

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1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Although Patrick is a loon who should be thrown off a bridge, he isn’t a completely foolish politician. He knew that 2017 did a number on his reputation, even within his own party. That was the last session that republicans could do whatever they want and barely even pretend democrats exist. Patrick wasted one of their last opportunities on his weird agenda that nobody else really cared about.

In 2019 the makeup of the legislature was more democratic and he dialed it back significantly. Passing a pro public education bill was the top house priority and he didn’t have the senate screw things up even though we all know he’s against the “liberal government indoctrination camps”.

In 2021 and beyond, the legislature will continue to be more blue. It will be interesting how he reacts to his loss of power. The house will be blue sometime in the next few sessions...

If we don't flip the state ledge this election they will just adjust their gerrymander for another decade. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104537

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Texas Supreme Court has sided with Ken Paxton for now and blocked expansion of vote by mail. 4 of the 9 judges are up for election this year if you’d like to voice your concern.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/15/texas-voting-by-mail-coronavirus-blocked-supreme-court/

Yep. Vote every one of them out. I endorse their opponent in each race. And I practice before that court for a living. It’s become hot garbage.
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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12 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

giphy.gif

 

Engage Texas was paying its canvassers 15/hr, at least here in Austin. They would approach people asking if they had a minute to discuss the Second Amendment, and if they responded favorably to their support they would then ask if you were registered to vote. There’s a couple stories out there about how when confronted by media they would scatter.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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Anyone think Royce West could/should/would use this racial strife to catapult his lack of coverage in the Democratic primary to a possible win over Hegar? If I’m in his campaign I’m thinking up ways to do this, as shitty as it feels to type that out.

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gmr548

gmr548 16482

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On 5/31/2020 at 2:35 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Anyone think Royce West could/should/would use this racial strife to catapult his lack of coverage in the Democratic primary to a possible win over Hegar? If I’m in his campaign I’m thinking up ways to do this, as shitty as it feels to type that out.

I don't see why this is neg worthy. It's not like you were advocating for it, and it's a legitimate question when it comes to discussing the impact on the election.

I don't really know anything about Royce West so I have no idea if he would do that. I could see current events really motivating black voters in what is sure to be a very low turnout runoff, which could favor West. So I guess if I were West, I wouldn't so much as call attention to myself as I would use the opportunity to simply remind my base of the opportunity to vote in the runoff.

And of course the drive by CR neg was @Johnny Sack. That explains that. Have a posrep.

13 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

This seems like rampant speculation, as I'd fully expect Bush to sit this one out. That said, fuck GWB, but this one is all hands on deck. "Be happy because it might encourage some votes and money to flow to Biden, or at least not flow to Trump," is the right answer. I think extrapolating it to the house is a stretch. Anyone who holds Bush in a positive enough light to be moved by his endorsement in 2020 is voting GOP in their local races, full stop.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18968

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34 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Not sure I believe that one. Will Hurd is probably the only republican who can win that district.

That’d be my guess. But- is the Dem a lesbian?  That might be keeping down some appeal with Hispanic voters. But I’d guess that race flips pretty easily. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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46 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’d be my guess. But- is the Dem a lesbian?  That might be keeping down some appeal with Hispanic voters. But I’d guess that race flips pretty easily. 

Will hurd won it by roughly 1000 votes in a midterm. I agree with you.

 

turnout is going to be much higher and the republican will also have to share the ballot with trump. I just don’t see anyway the gop holds that district.

she is a lesbian, but I don’t think that matters much in 2020.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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56 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’d be my guess. But- is the Dem a lesbian?  That might be keeping down some appeal with Hispanic voters. But I’d guess that race flips pretty easily. 

Gina Ortiz Jones is Filipina and Lesbian.  Her primary opponent last year and even Republicans made a big deal out of her not being Hispanic and using her middle name.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18968

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Will hurd won it by roughly 1000 votes in a midterm. I agree with you.

 

turnout is going to be much higher and the republican will also have to share the ballot with trump. I just don’t see anyway the gop holds that district.

she is a lesbian, but I don’t think that matters much in 2020.

My sense is that it matters more in minority communities than white ones, but I could well be wrong. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18968

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2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Gina Ortiz Jones is Filipina and Lesbian.  Her primary opponent last year and even Republicans made a big deal out of her not being Hispanic and using her middle name.

Why not just run a straight Hispanic in that district? That seems like the easier play. She ran and lost last time in a huge Dem lean district and a big wave election for Dems. What’s the local story on that race and her story?

Does not make any difference to me, just curious. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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It’s not a huge Dem lean district by any stretch, and she was selected in the primary by those same Democratic voters against straight Hispanic men and women. Beto is friends with Will Hurd and did not endorse GOJ in 2018 in what many people think secured the result. Pete Flores, a Republican, won a special election for state senate that covers much of the same area.

 Putting the wiki for the district below showing its demographics and seesaw elections.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas's_23rd_congressional_district

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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16 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

It’s not a huge Dem lean district by any stretch, and she was selected in the primary by those same Democratic voters against straight Hispanic men and women. Beto is friends with Will Hurd and did not endorse GOJ in 2018 in what many people think secured the result. Pete Flores, a Republican, won a special election for state senate that covers much of the same area.

 Putting the wiki for the district below showing its demographics and seesaw elections.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas's_23rd_congressional_district

It’s a crime that a district that is 25% white and has an average income of 20K is republican.

what are those people thinking?

a quick look at the history suggests that Democrats do well in presidential cycles and the gop does well in midterm cycles. Will Hurd snatched victory from the jaws of defeat 3X in a row there. Glad he’s gone. It should still go blue.

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16482

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It’s a crime that a district that is 25% white and has an average income of 20K is republican.
what are those people thinking?
a quick look at the history suggests that Democrats do well in presidential cycles and the gop does well in midterm cycles. Will Hurd snatched victory from the jaws of defeat 3X in a row there. Glad he’s gone. It should still go blue.
 
The electorate is probably majority white, turnout in border counties is low low low. Plus you got some more conservative Latino land rancher types out west.

But with Democrats making a sizeable debt in the GOP lead in the suburbs I don't see how this district doesn't flip.
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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One of the obstacles in Texas to registering to vote is you can’t do it online. Tomorrow, there is an online training that you can watch through Zoom to become registered as a voluntary Deputy Registrar in your county to help register people to vote. You can only register people in the county you live in.

https://www.mobilize.us/txdemconvention/event/275160/

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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My notes from call

Beto carried the 9 seats needed, 9 more within 5%

22 targeted highly contested seats, spotlight 3 below

HD-108- 67.4% bachelor degree, Beto won by over 10%, same candidate is running again

HD-138 near Jersey Village, Houston, Bellaire

HD-97- Southwest Fort Worth area

HOW DO THEY DECIDE WHERE TO TARGET?

Believe their data team is best in country. Heavy investment in concentrated voter targeting. Obvious targeting 9 seats that Beto won. These districts are moving that way- but moving faster than most realize.

11 of 12 pickups from 2018 overlapped 50% of targeted congressional seats. 16 potential pickup districts this year overlap 67% of targeted congressionals this year.

Population growth and performance at top of the ticket huge deciding factors in selecting where to target. Belief is Republicans squeezing most juice out of smallest available area vs expanding their tent to new groups.

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

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So for those that don’t know know, Empower Texans is a PAC in Texas almost dedicated to primarying Republicans they don’t see as conservative enough. They’ve had a tenuous at best relationship with the moderates at our Statewide level and even more conservative types like Dan Patrick. Dennis Bonnen, the speaker of the Texas House, resigned and promised not to run again this year because they taped discussions where he gave a list of Republicans he would not mind seeing primaried, even though he ended the session saying he would protect all incumbents. When most leadership is looking to tamper down the crazy, ET makes sure it gets revved up.
 

Well now, a tape filled with surly-esque vulgarities was released from a radio show with the General Counsel of ET and a staffer mocking the Governor’s disability and his troll-like response to County Judges requiring all businesses to have a mask policy with “finally someone solved my riddle for masks and reopenings in Texas.” If this leads to a credibility issue with ET ( not much before) you could see a much more stable Republican Party possibly emerge, for now it looks like they stepped in shit. At a time they should focus on keeping power from Democrats, they are fighting with themselves. Soundcloud of it below

https://m.soundcloud.com/scott-braddock/texas-scorecard
 

Dan Patrick’s response 

Favorite Texas politics reporter of mine, Scott Braddock chimed in

A former staffer of ET posted a thread about his experiences working there before he left

 

Edited by StassneyHorn
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