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Texas 2020 general election

Nice Guy Eddie

By Nice Guy Eddie
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Larry T. Spider
Larry T. Spider

10 years ago - solid republican voter 8 years ago - luke warm republican voter 4 years ago - luke warm Democrat voter Now - Democrat donor and solid voter who will be an insufferable pr

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

Gene administers a smackdown   

Homercles
Homercles

So...we get no straight ticket next year due to the GOP?  And it was their idea?   Why? Ill be that sumbitch that takes 10m to vote as I meticulously select D for every item down to county trash

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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Texas-31 is finally getting the boost, post-Hegar. Yang Gang and Beto teaming up, fo free, donations are nice tho. Donna is a computer nerd like most of you North Austin yups

If I forget to post this Thursday, someone else do it 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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The statesman put out a nice summary article on 12 Texas Congressional races. Worth the click, Siegel is going to have to beat McCaul on message as he’ll never have the money that McCaul has at disposal. Both candidates in TX-06 have as much cash as some of you 1%ers have in couch cushions.

We’re watching these 12 Texas congressional battlegrounds

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200806/wersquore-watching-these-12-texas-congressional-battlegrounds

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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On 8/4/2020 at 8:43 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Texas-31 is finally getting the boost, post-Hegar. Yang Gang and Beto teaming up, fo free, donations are nice tho. Donna is a computer nerd like most of you North Austin yups

If I forget to post this Thursday, someone else do it 

Yang, Beto and Imam discussing the district now

https://votefordonna.com/live

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19416

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49 minutes ago, The Dog said:

IMHO Donna is WAAAY too far to the left for TX-31. 

I live in 31, and I've said before I wish MJ had taken another shot at Carter. She won WilCo and was a few hundred votes short in Bell Co from winning that race, and I have to think WilCo has grown much faster than Bell in the two years since. I guess the question is can Imam win WilCo by a larger margin than MJ and still keep it close in Bell. I don't think she can, but who knows. 

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StassneyHorn

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10 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I live in 31, and I've said before I wish MJ had taken another shot at Carter. She won WilCo and was a few hundred votes short in Bell Co from winning that race, and I have to think WilCo has grown much faster than Bell in the two years since. I guess the question is can Imam win WilCo by a larger margin than MJ and still keep it close in Bell. I don't think she can, but who knows. 

Here’s to hoping she can. She actually began to address Bell Co. in the talk around the 48:30 mark as a majority minority district and looking to tap into the energy. Brings up that Texas not only had the fastest growing Latino population but Asian population as well.

below is a twitter link to the entire talk on Periscope in case anybody in the district missed it. Have to fast forward the first 4 minutes or so. She is doing another talk with Yang on Tuesday at 730 online

 

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The Dog

The Dog 44044

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On 8/7/2020 at 12:48 PM, Pescado_Rojo said:

I live in 31, and I've said before I wish MJ had taken another shot at Carter. She won WilCo and was a few hundred votes short in Bell Co from winning that race, and I have to think WilCo has grown much faster than Bell in the two years since. I guess the question is can Imam win WilCo by a larger margin than MJ and still keep it close in Bell. I don't think she can, but who knows. 

I also live in 31 and agree that MJ should have gone after Carter again. I think she represents this district more than Donna does and would have had a great shot to pull it off. 

I don't think Donna can win WilCo. It's gone a bit purple but she's deep blue in a lot of her positions IMHO. 

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

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Just got phone surveyed.  Started out pretty normal, but then the questions took a turn and the survey was obviously being done by some sort of Republican group.  So, I did my part to fuck with their data.

"In 2017, Sheriff Troy Nehls personally helped numerous families get to safety during Hurricane Harvey.  Would knowing this make you more or less likely to vote for Troy Nehls for Congress?"

"Less"

"Somewhat or Strongly"

"Strongly."

"While Sheriff Nehls was helping families, Sri Preston Kulkarni was attending the music festival Burning Man.  Would knowing this make you more or less likely to vote for Sri Preston Kulkarni for Congress?" 

"More.  Strongly."

Motherfuckers.  Make it less obvious next time.

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5949

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On 8/7/2020 at 2:05 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Here’s to hoping she can. She actually began to address Bell Co. in the talk around the 48:30 mark as a majority minority district and looking to tap into the energy. Brings up that Texas not only had the fastest growing Latino population but Asian population as well.

below is a twitter link to the entire talk on Periscope in case anybody in the district missed it. Have to fast forward the first 4 minutes or so. She is doing another talk with Yang on Tuesday at 730 online

 

I've been super impressed with Andrew Yang.  He should be speaking at the Democratic Convention but he's a stand up guy for not taking it personal.  He's not a politician, he just sees stuff he wants to improve and that's why he ran.  Really recommend people listen.  He did a good podcast with Al Frankin recently.  Thanks for posting this.  

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48099

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6 hours ago, Mdhorn said:

I've been super impressed with Andrew Yang.  He should be speaking at the Democratic Convention but he's a stand up guy for not taking it personal.  He's not a politician, he just sees stuff he wants to improve and that's why he ran.  Really recommend people listen.  He did a good podcast with Al Frankin recently.  Thanks for posting this.  

I’ve also been very impressed with Yang. I hope he becomes a resource once Biden takes office and his profile continues to rise. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11959

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13 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

This thread should always be on page 1. Cross posting from the state house thread 

Bernie, Beto, Jose Garza, Julie Oliver and more on virtual town hall in Texas

https://m.twitch.tv/videos/725349419

X,X,X,1

Ok....maybe 2,X,X,1 if I was super drunk and he took me to Whataburger after.

Double Whataburger with cheese, roasted jalapeños, and onions. Hell yeah.

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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Seen three Wendy Davis ads between last night and this morning. One was more of an intro from herself, the other two was an attack ad from Chip Roy on using campaign funds for Austin living expenses while she was in the legislature. Can’t vote for either of them as I’m just outside the district.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

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538 analysis of polls is showing that Trump currently has a 25% of winning the Presidency. But that Biden has a 31% chance of winning Texas. I find that intriguing given that I think everyone believes Trump has a decent chance to win the overall race but everyone is pretty skeptical about Biden winning Texas. 

Now I don't think there is much of a different between 25% and 31% but even being the same is surprising to me.

Even with that said, Texas could go blue this time and easily switch back red when it comes to Abbott or the 2024 POTUS election. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48099

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10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

538 analysis of polls is showing that Trump currently has a 25% of winning the Presidency. But that Biden has a 31% chance of winning Texas. I find that intriguing given that I think everyone believes Trump has a decent chance to win the overall race but everyone is pretty skeptical about Biden winning Texas. 

Now I don't think there is much of a different between 25% and 31% but even being the same is surprising to me.

Even with that said, Texas could go blue this time and easily switch back red when it comes to Abbott or the 2024 POTUS election. 

Wasn't his chances (Trump's) at 11% just a few weeks ago?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

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6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Wasn't his chances (Trump's) at 11% just a few weeks ago?

No. To my knowledge, 25% is the recent low. He has some lower number in June but there are many more polls now so spring/summer numbers are irrelevant now.

Maybe they give Trump a 11% in the popular vote but does that matter?

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SydneyCarton

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4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

No. To my knowledge, 25% is the recent low. He has some lower number in June but there are many more polls now so spring/summer numbers are irrelevant now.

Maybe they give Trump a 11% in the popular vote but does that matter?

It might not be 538. It could have been another source. I just remember seeing update after update of the race being 90% Biden. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32859

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It might not be 538. It could have been another source. I just remember seeing update after update of the race being 90% Biden. 

I think that was national popular vote chance, at least somewhere I saw it. Of course that's probably actually much higher than 90%.

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bolverk

bolverk 29671

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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It might not be 538. It could have been another source. I just remember seeing update after update of the race being 90% Biden. 

You might be thinking about the Economist's Election Forecast, which puts Trump at a 16% chance of winning the Electoral College.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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52 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It's gonna be lower in a week or two when the last week shows up in the polls.

It's going to be lower in a week or two just because we're a week or two closer to Election Day, and presumably Trump isn't going to see any better polling during that time.  So as the uncertainty goes down, so do his odds.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

538 analysis of polls is showing that Trump currently has a 25% of winning the Presidency. But that Biden has a 31% chance of winning Texas. I find that intriguing given that I think everyone believes Trump has a decent chance to win the overall race but everyone is pretty skeptical about Biden winning Texas. 

Now I don't think there is much of a different between 25% and 31% but even being the same is surprising to me.

Even with that said, Texas could go blue this time and easily switch back red when it comes to Abbott or the 2024 POTUS election. 

This a good observation. 538 is doing EVERYTHING possible to not show Biden with a 93% chance of winning. So their formula knocks down the winning percentage of the favorite(Biden) by adding an uncertainty factor because of unknown events between now and Election Day. Meaning their calculations probably show Biden at 93% if the election were today, but they tamper that with an uncertainty %. They don’t do that for the individual states.

Btw, it’s actually smart for 538 to do this I think. No reason to predict an election that would happen today. 
*They would do the same if Trump were a 93% favorite. It’s not political. They are “hedging”. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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ATX television political ad update. My wife watches the local and national news from 5-6. I usually ignore most of it except the political ads to see who is spending. 
 

By far the most ads on around here are Wendy Davis v. Chip Roy. It’s about 50-50. None are particularly good or bad. But they are running constantly. 

Have seen a couple Hegar ads. They were ok. Nothing from Cronyn yet. 
 

Have seen a couple Biden ads and nothing from trump. Can’t comment on the quality yet since I was barely paying attention when they were on. 
 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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8 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

This a good observation. 538 is doing EVERYTHING possible to not show Biden with a 93% chance of winning. So their formula knocks down the winning percentage of the favorite(Biden) by adding an uncertainty factor because of unknown events between now and Election Day. Meaning their calculations probably show Biden at 93% if the election were today, but they tamper that with an uncertainty %. They don’t do that for the individual states.

Btw, it’s actually smart for 538 to do this I think. No reason to predict an election that would happen today. 
*They would do the same if Trump were a 93% favorite. It’s not political. They are “hedging”. 

On one of their recent podcasts, I think Nate Silver put the number at around 90% if the election were held today.

That was their old "Nowcast" version of the model, which tells you what the odds would be if the election were held today.  It's similar to the Economist's model.  The concept was that as we got closer and closer to the election and uncertainty was reduced, the standard model would get closer and closer to the Nowcast until they merged on Election Day.  But I think 538 concluded that too many people were misled in 2016 by the high numbers Clinton had on the Nowcast right up until the Comey letter.

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The Dog

The Dog 44044

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So I didn't know that PPP had surveyed my 'hood (TX-31).

Here's the results

TL;DR:

1. Hegar is trailing Cornyn here (by 2 - so likely a statistical dead heat). That's a bad sign for her statewide chances. 

2. Carter is only ahead of Imam by 6, but I think that's because we have a Libertarian option who is pulling 7% of the vote in this sample. I don't expect Imam to win or even keep it that close. 

3. Trump is ahead of Biden by 1 (again, statistical dead heat). He won this district by 11.5 or so in 2016. The sample was Trump +9 from 2016 so it's a bit light on that. The overall sample is R+6 which also is a bit off as this district is believed to be R+10.

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The Dog

The Dog 44044

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2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Hot Take from 538 on Texas turning blue this election cycle. 6 minute YouTube clip if you've got the time.

tl;dw: It all depends on college-educated whites in the 'burbs.

 

Saw that earlier this morning. One thing to keep in mind is when they say "Turn Texas Blue" they are only talking about Biden's chances in this video and not any down ballot races. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

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yeah, 538 still takes grief for some for saying that Clinton was going to win even though they never said that. Mainly the heat comes from right leaning people that believe the media lies.

One, 538 doesn't make predictions like who is going to win. Silver is a poker player and he knows that even a 2% chance of winning is still a chance of winning.  The one exception is that if history and polls are giving a candidate 90% of a state/DC's vote, then yes 538 will list that state at >99%. He still seems to shy away from 100%.

Two, I believe they went into election day 2016 with Trump having a decent chance to win. Absolutely they had Clinton with a better chance which I think Silver would still basically stand behind based on the polls and analysis.

The best tool during election night 2016 was the NY Times needle graphs. They were one of the first to recognize that based on outstanding votes, Trump was going to win. I believe a couple of hours before the networks. They analyzed each state and the outstanding vote estimates. I hope they do that again even though it will be tougher with early voting and mail-in votes being that much more.

 

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bolverk

bolverk 29671

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Saw that earlier this morning. One thing to keep in mind is when they say "Turn Texas Blue" they are only talking about Biden's chances in this video and not any down ballot races. 

Understood. I did find it intriguing when he said that lately polls tend to underestimate Democratic votes in Texas just as they tend to underestimate Republican support in the Midwest.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32859

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5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Hot Take from 538 on Texas turning blue this election cycle. 6 minute YouTube clip if you've got the time.

tl;dw: It all depends on college-educated whites in the 'burbs.

 

It's an important election for the Texas Dems because of the district maps, but IF Texas votes for Biden this year, it will go Republican again in 2022 before possibly going blue permanently in 2024. Biden winning Texas this year would be a combination of demographic shift and Trump fatigue.
 

From pure demographics I think the trendline had Texas going blue in like 2028, right?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

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5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Saw that earlier this morning. One thing to keep in mind is when they say "Turn Texas Blue" they are only talking about Biden's chances in this video and not any down ballot races. 

100%. But it would seem likely that many down ballot democrats would benefit from a Biden Texas victory. Maybe not a 100% correlation especially with straight ticket going away but it would help.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

100%. But it would seem likely that many down ballot democrats would benefit from a Biden Texas victory. Maybe not a 100% correlation especially with straight ticket going away but it would help.

I also wonder about Democrats' higher propensity to do mail-in balloting and how it affects down-ballot rates in an era without straight-ticket voting.  It seems to me that it is probably a lot easier to go through the entire ballot from the comfort of your own living room than it is standing at a voting booth.  So I wonder if there won't be some (probably minimal) impact on down-ballot races favoring Democrats.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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It’s weird but Texas may be the most important state in the nation for this election. 
 

I realize this is hard for people to process or believe,  but Texas is clearly a swing state in the presidential election this year. If Biden takes Texas it doesn’t matter what happens in the rest of the country. There is no trump path to win without it.
 

Not only can trump never win without Texas but he won’t even be able to contest it no matter what happens anywhere else. 

So get the fuck out and vote and drag whoever else you can along with you. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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Just now, JimmyJames said:

It’s weird but Texas may be the most important state in the nation for this election. 
 

I realize this is hard for people to process or believe,  but Texas is clearly a swing state in the presidential election this year. If Biden takes Texas it doesn’t matter what happens in the rest of the country. There is no trump path to win without it.
 

Not only can trump never win without Texas but he won’t even be able to contest it no matter what happens anywhere else. 

So get the fuck out and vote and drag whoever else you can along with you. 

And, if Trump loses Texas, you'll know about it on Election Night.  There'll be no Red Mirage.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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26 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

I wish people would quit saying this.  What you should be saying is "drag whoever else you can along with you as long as you've vetted them and are sure they won't be voting Republican."  

Well that goes without saying.

But yeah if you think someone will vote for trump, hide their keys and slip em a mickey. 

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