Texas 2020 general election

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So lets say Patrick primaries Abbott and wins. Would Abbott slink away quietly, or stay in the race as an independent potentially opening the race up to a Dem challenger? 

Potty Patrick only won his last race by about 4 points.

 

in 2 more years,  both potty Patrick and indictment Paxton could lose due to their toxicity and unpopularity.

[atomheartbevo 89663]

6 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So lets say Patrick primaries Abbott and wins. Would Abbott slink away quietly, or stay in the race as an independent potentially opening the race up to a Dem challenger? 

Abbott has probably reached his peak, because Cruz and Cornyn aren't going anywhere (and if they do, it's because a Dem is taking their seat).

Honestly, I think Abbott would burn the place down on the way out, because if he was primaried, his days in politics are finished.   I would expect to see Patrick's mental illness and institutionalization history, name change, etc., come right back up to the surface, and given that Dannie boy was a radio host, and friends with a lot of radio hosts, and we know how those types of shows used to be, I would expect plenty of inappropriate shit they said back in the 80s and 90s to make its way online.

We are within 2-4 years of most statewide offices having Dem challengers who can make the incumbent sweat, and the GOP will need to be absolutely united and airtight.  Patrick trying to primary a sitting Republican, who has plenty of his own powerful BMDs, would be political suicide for both of them, and would usher in the Dems that much faster.

Goeb and Abbott are both big fish in a shrinking pond, and they have both hit their ceiling - neither one of them would make for good national candidates.  If they feast on each other, it makes it easier for the smaller fish to clean up.

[TexEx15 17525]

 

[APMP 688]

Except that one judge who beat Sulak. That is a complete disaster. A lot of lawyers might have voted R instead of her, but think she is unopposed.

[Brisketexan 105136]

1 minute ago, APMP said:

Except that one judge who beat Sulak. That is a complete disaster. A lot of lawyers might have voted R instead of her, but think she is unopposed.

She IS an R.....the Dems need to do a better job of candidate qualifications.  She exposed a weakness in the system.

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 minutes ago, APMP said:

Except that one judge who beat Sulak. That is a complete disaster. A lot of lawyers might have voted R instead of her, but think she is unopposed.

Madeleine Connor. I actually would have considered that if the Republican opponent was someone I respected because she’s a Republican in disguise who took out a very good dem judge in the primary. She also likes to file frivolous lawsuits and get sanctioned. It still would be tough though.

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

She IS an R.....the Dems need to do a better job of candidate qualifications.  She exposed a weakness in the system.

The weakness in the system is that a woman will almost always beat a man in a dem primary if nobody knows who they are.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

6 minutes ago, APMP said:

Except that one judge who beat Sulak. That is a complete disaster. A lot of lawyers might have voted R instead of her, but think she is unopposed.

She's unopposed.  I'm just abstaining in that one.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

She's unopposed.  I'm just abstaining in that one.

That’s what I did. Voted straight ticket dem and didn’t vote for her.

[APMP 688]

Nothing like having a judge that is actually on the state's list of vexatious litigants.

https://www.txcourts.gov/media/1443730/madeleine-connor.pdf

[APMP 688]

She IS an R.....the Dems need to do a better job of candidate qualifications.  She exposed a weakness in the system.

I would also be cool with a rule preventing vexatious litigants from holding certain law-related public offices.

[atomheartbevo 89663]

34 minutes ago, APMP said:

Except that one judge who beat Sulak. That is a complete disaster. 

That judge damn near wrecked the territorial accords between the Andorians and Vulcans.  Somehow went on to become the Superintendent of Starfleet Academy while William T. Riker was a cadet there.

[APMP 688]

That judge damn near wrecked the territorial accords between the Andorians and Vulcans.  Somehow went on to become the Superintendent of Starfleet Academy while William T. Riker was a cadet there.

Ok well played.

[atomheartbevo 89663]

54 minutes ago, APMP said:

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

That judge damn near wrecked the territorial accords between the Andorians and Vulcans.  Somehow went on to become the Superintendent of Starfleet Academy while William T. Riker was a cadet there.

Ok well played.

My Star Trek knowledge sometimes rises to the surface at inappropriate times.

[TheStoicPaisano 9922]

Sima bringing some meme heat.

 

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Houston Chronicle digging into Roger Williams this morning, late boost for Julie Oliver

Texas Congressman Roger Williams pressured a bank to help out a top donor, records show

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Texas-Roger-Williams-pressured-bank-top-donor-15648882.php

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

Fake Williamson County Democratic group creates endorsement card to endorse conservative school board candidates

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Nice shout out. 

[Pancho 44797]

Wrong thread

[Neonmoon 38129]

20 hours ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

Sima bringing some meme heat.

 

Crenshaw is a fucking clown

[Stringer 1439]

What do the lawyers here have for recommendations on the Supreme and Appeals courts?

[Brisketexan 105136]

3 minutes ago, Stringer said:

What do the lawyers here have for recommendations on the Supreme and Appeals courts?

Dems, all the way down.  I'm dead serious.  I practice in front of every one of those courts except the Court of Criminal Appeals, and you need to vote Dem, all the way down.  Including the Court of Crim Apps, by the way - they DESPERATELY need an overhaul.

[troph 24793]

Dems, all the way down.  I'm dead serious.  I practice in front of every one of those courts except the Court of Criminal Appeals, and you need to vote Dem, all the way down.  Including the Court of Crim Apps, by the way - they DESPERATELY need an overhaul.

100% this.

[Pato del Muerto 52497]

20 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Dems, all the way down.  I'm dead serious.  I practice in front of every one of those courts except the Court of Criminal Appeals, and you need to vote Dem, all the way down.  Including the Court of Crim Apps, by the way - they DESPERATELY need an overhaul.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

Wesley Hunt have a chance?  Y’all scared at al about him flipping that seat back? 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Wesley Hunt have a chance?  Y’all scared at al about him flipping that seat back? 

Not really.  Not with Trump at the top of the ticket.

Now, in 2022?  A midterm with the Democrats in power?  Yeah--I'll be worried about that seat then.

20 hours ago, Stringer said:

What do the lawyers here have for recommendations on the Supreme and Appeals courts?

Democrats, top to bottom.

If you want to go race-by-race, we can.  I think in particular Gisela Triana (SCOTX Pl. 8 ) and Darlene Byrne (Austin COA Ch. Justice) are exceptional candidates who are significantly better than the incumbent.  But more broadly, the courts need partisan balance.  So Democrats, top to bottom.

[DalTxHornFan 3101]

LMAO.  Staci Williams for Supreme Court?

Rated by Dallas Bar Association's Judicial Evaluation Poll as one of the worst Civil District judges in Dallas County -- and that says a lot, considering the competition. 

https://www.dallasbar.org/?pg=judicial-evaluation-poll

 

[Texaspython 231]

1 minute ago, DalTxHornFan said:

LMAO.  Staci Williams for Supreme Court?

Rated by Dallas Bar Association's Judicial Evaluation Poll as one of the worst Civil District judges in Dallas County -- and that says a lot, considering the competition. 

https://www.dallasbar.org/?pg=judicial-evaluation-poll

 

Yeah, but her opponent is worse.

[Pato del Muerto 52497]

2 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

Yeah, but her opponent is worse.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

5 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

LMAO.  Staci Williams for Supreme Court?

Rated by Dallas Bar Association's Judicial Evaluation Poll as one of the worst Civil District judges in Dallas County -- and that says a lot, considering the competition. 

https://www.dallasbar.org/?pg=judicial-evaluation-poll

 

Staci Williams is not a good judge.  But Jeff Boyd is a right-wing ideologue who is a pretty bad judge in his own right.

[DalTxHornFan 3101]

I generally vote R, but I agree with the post above that identified Judges Triana and Byrne as excellent candidates.

[Planet Houston 4930]

35 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Wesley Hunt have a chance?  Y’all scared at al about him flipping that seat back? 

I don’t think so. And the public better not forget what a boot licker for Trump he has been. The first mailer I got to my house said he was a TRUMP Republican. I won’t forget that, and others better not either.

But of course people will. Sigh. 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Planet Houston

[Planet Houston 4930]

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/house/texas-7

83% chance Lizzie keeps it per this model. 

[gmr548 16580]

Wesley Hunt have a chance?  Y’all scared at al about him flipping that seat back? 

Tying hinself to Trump isn't going to end well in that district.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

Thanks for the thoughts- That was my thinking as well, but I know fuck all about that district, so... thought I'd ask.

 

People wanting Trump to win that are actually conservative ought to be really fucking careful what they wish for. Historically- a 2nd term presidency is a shit show compared to the first term (the mind shudders to think what that looks like) and also comes with a smooth buttfucking in the 6 year congressional elections.
I'm not a fan at all of Dem policy (lets not argue this- ok- really lets not I know yall are- you aren't changing my mind and I ain't changing yours) but I'm rooting for Trump to lose and that get purged from the GOP party- I don't claim to be the majority view point but I'm also not a group of 1 I know, so if things go bad economically between here and there, and there's a scandal or 2 in the Biden admin (or he just looks out to lunch) there's a better than zero chance in my mind that the GOP can come roaring back in 2022 (or there's also a chance Trump has turned it into a permanent minority party) and win the house and mitigate losses in the Senate- which is what I think LL is alluding to- maybe at that point in time a guy like Hunt can flip a district like that- I don't know- or maybe it's not blue forever. 

Again, thanks for weighing in.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

it's not a permanent minority party.  i'm mostly mad that they've denied me the right to choose between differing policy positions.  it used to be "do you like group A's ideas or group B's?"  Now it is "do you like group A's ideas or are you literally retarded?"  As soon as they elevate policy again, i'm sure millions will think about them again.

[Planet Houston 4930]

There are a shitload of Wesley Hunt signs in River Oaks, and a fair amount in West U as well.  Although the Biden/Lizzie signs are out in full force in West U now too - I think Wesley just did a good job of pushing out yard signs pretty early on.  Still - lots of rich fuckers who will also be pulling the lever for Trump.  Good thing it's called the 1% for a reason when it comes to the polls.

The number of Hunt yard signs with no Trump signs just shows you how chickenshit most of these folks are.  And let's not delude ourselves and think anyone with a Hunt yard sign is going to be voting for Biden.

[gmr548 16580]

Thanks for the thoughts- That was my thinking as well, but I know fuck all about that district, so... thought I'd ask.
 
People wanting Trump to win that are actually conservative ought to be really fucking careful what they wish for. Historically- a 2nd term presidency is a shit show compared to the first term (the mind shudders to think what that looks like) and also comes with a smooth buttfucking in the 6 year congressional elections.
I'm not a fan at all of Dem policy (lets not argue this- ok- really lets not I know yall are- you aren't changing my mind and I ain't changing yours) but I'm rooting for Trump to lose and that get purged from the GOP party- I don't claim to be the majority view point but I'm also not a group of 1 I know, so if things go bad economically between here and there, and there's a scandal or 2 in the Biden admin (or he just looks out to lunch) there's a better than zero chance in my mind that the GOP can come roaring back in 2022 (or there's also a chance Trump has turned it into a permanent minority party) and win the house and mitigate losses in the Senate- which is what I think LL is alluding to- maybe at that point in time a guy like Hunt can flip a district like that- I don't know- or maybe it's not blue forever. 

Again, thanks for weighing in.
 

If Biden wins, and especially if Ds get the senate with that, the GOP probably will see a bounce in 2022. That's just how it works because America is dumb.

Omg we elected the party of billionaire tax cuts and white nationalism and they're cutting taxes for billionaires and cozying up to white nationalists! Must change course!

Omg we elected the party of higher taxes on corporations/super rich or socialized medicine or environmental regulations or whatever my issue is and they're doing that! Must change course!

What may get the GOP is cratering so hard in 2020 and not getting much low hanging fruit, or even losing seats. It's hard to see a 2010 style rebuke of democratic control if the economy recovers fairly smoothly and the vaccine is rolled out reasonably well.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's not a permanent minority party.  i'm mostly mad that they've denied me the right to choose between differing policy positions.  it used to be "do you like group A's ideas or group B's?"  Now it is "do you like group A's ideas or are you literally retarded?"  As soon as they elevate policy again, i'm sure millions will think about them again.

I'm not entirely sure that's true. If they've lost married suburban white married women forever b/c of being the party of Trump that's permanent minority status as a party, honestly.  It feels like they might have lost that group forever. I don't know. 

PS- that makes them a permanent minority party in Texas forever too btw. 

[Bateshorn 9927]

It's why I argue Biden should abolish the filibuster and go hard if he takes back the Senate.  Establish your vision of governance and make it happen.  If Americans don't like it, they don't like it. But they might if you aren't fighting Mitch McConnell as a drag anchor on everything.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

If Biden wins, and especially if Ds get the senate with that, the GOP probably will see a bounce in 2022. That's just how it works because America is dumb.

Omg we elected the party of billionaire tax cuts and white nationalism and they're cutting taxes for billionaires and cozying up to white nationalists! Must change course!

Omg we elected the party of higher taxes on corporations/super rich or socialized medicine or environmental regulations or whatever my issue is and they're doing that! Must change course!

What may get the GOP is cratering so hard in 2020 and not getting much low hanging fruit, or even losing seats. It's hard to see a 2010 style rebuke of democratic control if the economy recovers fairly smoothly and the vaccine is rolled out reasonably well.

 

 

Those are two giant if's- that's what I'm putting into my possible red counterwave in 2022 (if it happens it will be b/c both- and maybe neither- of those things happened).

I asked about the Hunt seat b/c I don't know if it's low hanging fruit or not (I'd suspect it isn't) but I'd think the most likely time to flip a seat like that would be after the first term- if you let it stay beyond that it gets pretty sticky for the other side and becomes "their" seat. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's why I argue Biden should abolish the filibuster and go hard if he takes back the Senate.  Establish your vision of governance and make it happen.  If Americans don't like it, they don't like it. But they might if you aren't fighting Mitch McConnell as a drag anchor on everything.

I didn't see you post on the subject I started b/c of you. I think that's the defining question to answer when figuring out how Dems ought to govern.  

[PappyVanVinceYoung 85]

11 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

There are a shitload of Wesley Hunt signs in River Oaks, and a fair amount in West U as well.  Although the Biden/Lizzie signs are out in full force in West U now too - I think Wesley just did a good job of pushing out yard signs pretty early on.  Still - lots of rich fuckers who will also be pulling the lever for Trump.  Good thing it's called the 1% for a reason when it comes to the polls.

The number of Hunt yard signs with no Trump signs just shows you how chickenshit most of these folks are.  And let's not delude ourselves and think anyone with a Hunt yard sign is going to be voting for Biden.

Lots of signs for Hunt in the Villages as well. Probably 25% of the houses also have Trump signs. I was asked to go to a fundraiser for Hunt this week and declined. Even if I was a supporter of his (I'm not), I don't really understand how effective a fundraiser this late in the game would even be. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

4 minutes ago, PappyVanVinceYoung said:

Lots of signs for Hunt in the Villages as well. Probably 25% of the houses also have Trump signs. I was asked to go to a fundraiser for Hunt this week and declined. Even if I was a supporter of his (I'm not), I don't really understand how effective a fundraiser this late in the game would even be. 

Set him up for a rematch in 2022 without another challenger in more favorable climate?

Personal grift?

Networking?

That is an interesting question.

[gmr548 16580]

They haven’t lost them forever.   Essentially nobody is lost forever in a 2 party system except black people understandably don’t like the coalition that is still pissed off about desegregation.   That’s it.
The grass is always greener on the other side.  One tax increase, one regulatory change that impacts the family’s industry, a lot of right wing talking points and someone less offensive than Trump (which is almost anyone) will bring plenty of suburbanites back into the tent.

Yup. They're native Republicans by class/self interest. They'll go home. But they're more than welcome for now.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

They haven’t lost them forever.   Essentially nobody is lost forever in a 2 party system except black people understandably don’t like the coalition that is still pissed off about desegregation.   That’s it.

The grass is always greener on the other side.  One tax increase, one regulatory change that impacts the family’s industry, a lot of right wing talking points and someone less offensive than Trump (which is almost anyone) will bring plenty of suburbanites back into the tent.

They seem pretty activated in a way they never have been before. I don't know. Maybe the ones activated were always Dems and are just now doing something about it.  Maybe not. 

I'm rooting for James and Hunt b/c I want black conservatives to feel like they have a place outside the Dem party- b/c I think that could actually bring some racial healing to America if it seemed like every party was open to every person.
note- I'm not blaming black people for being "lost forever" b/c you aren't wrong about that coalition in the GOP so that's a GOP thing not a black thing when I calculate it all together in my head.
All that said- the black "conservatives" that exist inside the Dem party, and the fact that it's a pretty monolithic voting bloc in general,  probably moderate that party way more than it otherwise would be moderated if not for them and kept us from President Sanders, so bully for them, and a heartfelt thanks from me, if nobody other than me on this board. 

[Bateshorn 9927]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I didn't see you post on the subject I started b/c of you. I think that's the defining question to answer when figuring out how Dems ought to govern.  

Sorry, I was drinking with the wife, I try to put down the phone after a certain hour.

I just think that trying to finesse the GOP they way Obama tried in 2008-2010 is going to lead to compromises that make the legislation easily attacked, or completely ineffectual, or just doing nothing at all. McConnell is going to fight the Democrats tooth and nail the whole way, so you may be looking at 2 solid years of budget standoffs, automatically dead legislation in the Senate, etc.  The only thing the Democrats will be able to do is raise taxes because of reconciliation, which while popular, makes for some rough 2022 campaigning.  

Abolish the filibuster, voting  rights reform, end gerrymandering, fix the nation's finances, bring most of the troops home, fix Obamacare, pass an infrastructure bill, pass a big education bill, address climate change, enact judicial reform, bring in DC and Puerto Rico.  Then campaign in 2022 as a transformative presidency with more work to do. Go big or go home.  I think if Biden goes small, he's going to get his ass handed to him in 2022.  He might also if he goes big, but he'll have some pretty radical reforms for the party to run on 2024. Most the things in the democrat platform are popular with about 2/3 of the electorate.  I think where the democrats get roughed up is when they come off as weak and ineffectual.  It allows the GOP to keep rebrand itself as the power/winner party.

Edited October 19, 2020 by Bateshorn

[SydneyCarton 48103]

24 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's not a permanent minority party.  i'm mostly mad that they've denied me the right to choose between differing policy positions.  it used to be "do you like group A's ideas or group B's?"  Now it is "do you like group A's ideas or are you literally retarded?"  As soon as they elevate policy again, i'm sure millions will think about them again.

The problem here, and I can't be the only one, is that someone who used to consider the policy differences as a big driver of my voting behavior (I never got the angst over Obamacare, I cared about foreign policy and fiscal conservatism but baffled at abortion being something people give a fuck about) I absolutely, in no way shape or form trust or will trust the Republicans again. Even if I liked some of their policies, the men making those policies went so far down the rabbit hole of gutless shitbaggery, and their complete lack of morals and arguable wealthy/elite/white agenda has been so laid bare, I can't trust them again with anything. I don't care if they promised me a full proof way to balance the budget and lower our debt by 10 trillion in 2 years. I don't. Fucking. Trust. Them. 

And I can't be the only one, or even a tiny percentage. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The problem here, and I can't be the only one, is that someone who used to consider the policy differences as a big driver of my voting behavior (I never got the angst over Obamacare, I cared about foreign policy and fiscal conservatism but baffled at abortion being something people give a fuck about) I absolutely, in no way shape or form trust or will trust the Republicans again. Even if I liked some of their policies, the men making those policies went so far down the rabbit hole of gutless shitbaggery, and their complete lack of morals and arguable wealthy/elite/white agenda has been so laid bare, I can't trust them again with anything. I don't care if they promised me a full proof way to balance the budget and lower our debt by 10 trillion in 2 years. I don't. Fucking. Trust. Them. 

And I can't be the only one, or even a tiny percentage. 

Second. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Sorry, I was drinking with the wife, I try to put down the phone after a certain hour.

I just think that trying to finesse the GOP they way Obama tried in 2008-2010 is going to lead to compromises that make the legislation easily attacked, or completely ineffectual, or just doing nothing at all. McConnell is going to fight the Democrats tooth and nail the whole way, so you may be looking at 2 solid years of budget standoffs, automatically dead legislation in the Senate, etc.  The only thing the Democrats will be able to do is raise taxes because of reconciliation, which while popular, makes for some rough 2022 campaigning.  

Abolish the filibuster, voting  rights reform, end gerrymandering, fix the nation's finances, bring most of the troops home, fix Obamacare, pass an infrastructure bill, pass a big education bill, address climate change, enact judicial reform, bring in DC and Puerto Rico.  Then campaign in 2022 as a transformative presidency with more work to do. Go big or go home.  I think if Biden goes small, he's going to get his ass handed to him in 2022.  He might also if he goes big, but he'll have some pretty radical reforms for the party to run on 2024. Most the things in the democrat platform are popular with about 2/3 of the electorate.  I think where the democrats get roughed up is when they come off as weak and ineffectual.  It allows the GOP to keep rebrand itself as the power/winner party.

If America is a center right country as you said then that list of shit isn't popular with 2/3 of the electorate.  If it's a center right country that loses you a landslide election in 2022 and probably in 2024 in a universe where the GOP doesn't nominate a moron (I know- hard to remember all the way back to 2012, but go with me on that). 

I think you are wrong and we are no longer the center right country that we were (at least compared to the past- maybe still compared to Europe) so if I was a liberal I'd certainly run that way instead of incremental changes, but...

Sorry- need to stop there- this isn't the thread for that.