Texas 2020 general election

[berlinerbaer 670]

10 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I’m hopeful that Dems can take back the Texas House this election cycle but for the sake of discussion, let’s say they don’t.  Republicans will pull out all the stops to gerrymander the maps to hold onto control as long as possible. My main wondering is how they can draw a map in 2020 that benefits them but won’t completely trash their chances by 2028. Right now they can draw some 90% dem city districts and that won’t change. But they can draw enough rural areas into suburban districts to keep them red. What happens when these fast growing suburbs turn more blue and completely overwhelm the rural areas they are paired with as far as population? 

Long term it seems like republicans would be better off giving up on some suburbs and drawing the maps to give others more rural areas than is currently needed. They might not get as many seats in the short term but it would protect them more in the longer term. 

The Rs historically have been masters at the long game, but some of their recent actions look more like desperation to me. The recent laser-focus on the judiciary, a real bulwark against a liberalizing government and population, suggests the power brokers are aware that they are in electoral trouble long-term and looking for ways to maintain control after they've left office.

Please, God, let that be true.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

The republicans can’t gerrymander their way to victory in statewide elections. The more I think about it, Dems will probably get the governorship before the senate. I could see the house being blue, the senate being red, and the statewide offices going to the more popular candidate of either party for a while. Eventually it will all be blue if the republicans party doesn’t reinvent itself after trump.

[Voldemort86 2259]

I don’t get why they are stonewalling legal marijuana.

 

they have to know that 66% of this country approves of legalization and a majority of Texans do so as well. They could actually end up getting some political benefit from it. 
 

right now, most people view our state leadership as a bunch of overly conservative goons who vote no on everything. 

[Brisketexan 104465]

I don’t get why they are stonewalling legal marijuana.
 
they have to know that 66% of this country approves of legalization and a majority of Texans do so as well. They could actually end up getting some political benefit from it. 
 
right now, most people view our state leadership as a bunch of overly conservative goons who vote no on everything. 

“View?”

[atomheartbevo 89362]

3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I don’t get why they are stonewalling legal marijuana.

they have to know that 66% of this country approves of legalization and a majority of Texans do so as well. They could actually end up getting some political benefit from it. 

right now, most people view our state leadership as a bunch of overly conservative goons who vote no on everything. 

I actually think they might toss it out there as a Hail Mary when the time comes.  Not in 2020, but maybe 2022 or 2024, depending on how tight 2020 is.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

2022 will tell us a lot. Trump being at the top of the ticket is going to skew things. I’m not sure which way as he is such a different character but it will bring out different voters from both sides.

[berlinerbaer 670]

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I don’t get why they are stonewalling universal background checks.

 

they have to know that 80% of this country approves of legislation and a majority of Texans do so as well. They could actually end up getting some political benefit from it. 
 

right now, most people view our state leadership as a bunch of overly conservative goons who vote no on everything. 

also applicable

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I actually think they might toss it out there as a Hail Mary when the time comes.  Not in 2020, but maybe 2022 or 2024, depending on how tight 2020 is.

Yeah....

 

I’ll be very disappointed If prohibition lasts another 10+ years. The prohibition group has lost every battle.  Scientific Facts, public opinion.

it sucks that conservatives love to vote no on everything.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Yeah....

I’ll be very disappointed If prohibition lasts another 10+ years. The prohibition group has lost every battle.  Scientific Facts, public opinion.

it sucks that conservatives love to vote no on everything.

Win some libertarians over.  Make the olds with arthritis or cancer or whatever happy that it might be easier to obtain.   Maybe get some young voters in. Bring in more revenue for the state to spend.  

[Foosters 17691]

20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Win some libertarians over.  Make the olds with arthritis or cancer or whatever happy that it might be easier to obtain.   Maybe get some young voters in. Bring in more revenue for the state to spend.  

If you have to win a libertarian over on legalization, they're not libertarians. So, kinda like most of 'em.

[Bateshorn 9882]

On 1/20/2020 at 12:29 AM, Larry T. Spider said:

The republicans can’t gerrymander their way to victory in statewide elections. The more I think about it, Dems will probably get the governorship before the senate. I could see the house being blue, the senate being red, and the statewide offices going to the more popular candidate of either party for a while. Eventually it will all be blue if the republicans party doesn’t reinvent itself after trump.

This is more or less how it happened in Virginia and how it’s beginning to occur in North Carolina. The unknown is voter suppression.  In North Carolina the GOP failed to get control of the Supreme Court and couldn’t use voter suppression to control state wide office,  so eventually demographics took over.  In Georgia,  the Democrats have much further to travel because of voter suppression. 

Edited January 21, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Js1 85056]

8 hours ago, Foosters said:

If you have to win a libertarian over on legalization, they're not libertarians. So, kinda like most of 'em.

[RayDog 682]

8 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

This is more or less how it happened in Virginia and how it’s beginning to occur in North Carolina. The unknown is voter suppression.  In North Carolina the GOP failed to get control of the Supreme Court and couldn’t use voter suppression to control state wide office,  so eventually demographics took over.  In Georgia,  the Democrats have much further to travel because of voter suppression. 

Convicting non-whites on felony drug charges is part of Republican voter suppression tactics.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

I would be shocked if Texas legalizes recreational marijuana until the federal govt does. I think it's silly when anyone wastes time discussing it because it won't even come up for a vote.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

40 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I would be shocked if Texas legalizes recreational marijuana until the federal govt does. I think it's silly when anyone wastes time discussing it because it won't even come up for a vote.

While it's medical, Oklahoma legalized medical, and reduced the penalties for recreational.  I would have expected Oklahoma to be pretty much last on the list for both of those things.

It's gonna happen. It's just a matter if it happens sooner with the Republicans in control, or later with the Democrats in control.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

While it's medical, Oklahoma legalized medical, and reduced the penalties for recreational.  I would have expected Oklahoma to be pretty much last on the list for both of those things.

It's gonna happen. It's just a matter if it happens sooner with the Republicans in control, or later with the Democrats in control.

You got them mixed up. Democrats want to legalize across the board. Biden is the only democrat left really who hates pot, but Biden would still allow some progress under his watch. Probably nationwide medical and decriminalization. Bernie and Elizabeth Warren would take it off schedule 1 somehow.

 

democrats are much much more friendly to legal weed and I think the next democratic president will show that. I guess Biden might try to ignore it, but the issue will probably come up.

[ftf82 485]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

While it's medical, Oklahoma legalized medical, and reduced the penalties for recreational.  I would have expected Oklahoma to be pretty much last on the list for both of those things.

It's gonna happen. It's just a matter if it happens sooner with the Republicans in control, or later with the Democrats in control.

Oklahoma law allows for citizen proposed constitutional amendments (ballot initiatives). Unfortunately in Texas, the legislature has to approve any amendments or other statewide referendums. Fun fact. Pro-legalization groups in Oklahoma have put forth a new initiative to legalize recreational weed. Upon approval of the wording of the proposed law by the Secretary of State, the organizers will have 90 days to obtain 178,000 signatures in order to get it on the November 2020 ballot. North Texas may just get a lot more popular as a weekend getaway. 

[Js1 85056]

HD28 run off voting started on Tuesday - Abbott intentionally picked the best way to limit EV Bc of the holiday on Monday

Already 6400 votes cast in 2 days. The October special election had about 14,000 in 10 days of EV. There’s only 4 EV days this time but it would equate to approximately 12800 early votes. In a runoff. In 6 less days than the general  

Beto effect? 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

HD28 run off voting started on Tuesday - Abbott intentionally picked the best way to limit EV Bc of the holiday on Monday

Already 6400 votes cast in 2 days. The October special election had about 14,000 in 10 days of EV. There’s only 4 EV days this time but it would equate to approximately 12800 early votes. In a runoff. In 6 less days than the general  

Beto effect? 

This shit needs to be amplified.  I threw them another donation last night.  

[Js1 85056]

Wowza

4000 EV more than my estimate. In 8 less days total 

[tx 3 putt 76159]

interesting 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

I’m a little concerned, though. In the comments below, there was a tweet showing the data and around 5000+ votes were from voters who had previously voted in a Republican primary. They are showing up at the polls in #s.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

2 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I’m a little concerned, though. In the comments below, there was a tweet showing the data and around 5000+ votes were from voters who had previously voted in a Republican primary. They are showing up at the polls in #s.

There is a concern/theory that Texas has a lot of lazy republicans that don’t show up often because they simply haven’t had to. When Texas starts to get more purple, these people will kick into action, keeping Texas slightly red for longer than expected. You can see a bit of that in the beto race. Dems showed up in force, but republicans showed up more than usual to match them. Hopefully this theory is incorrect or less significant than some think.

[Queen Bitch 1692]

Trump is going to win Texas in November. I refuse to get my hopes up.

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, Queen Bitch said:

Trump is going to win Texas in November. I refuse to get my hopes up.

The margin is what I’ll be looking at very closely.

mccain and Romney won Texas by double digits. I think trump won Texas by 9 in 2016. I’m hoping that margin shrinks to only 5 or 6 in 2020.

 

I still think that Texas loses a lot of olds every 4 years who vote repub all the time and those people aren’t going to be replaced. The GOP can slow it down with little gimmicks like voter suppression, but they can’t stop it. 

 

 

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

 District 17 had a forum last night that was closed to the public but aired on local television. I'm going to watch the video today. IIRC there were 12 (now 11) candidates on the GOP slate and 3 on the Democratic ballot. The Democrats had 30 minutes and then the other two hours was supposed to be GOP. Hindman of Round Rock seems to be the one the GOP strategists are pushing (probably due to the pushback against Sessions). I've had no less than four glossy postcards in my mail plus one robocall from him. He is a Freedom Caucus guy (like Jim Jordan) and is pushing hard. Will be interested to see his financials.

Kennedy ran and lost against Flores (the retiring incumbent). He has an uphill battle in this district but I would like to meet him as I think he is the Democrats best candidate of the three.

 

[Message Board User 12389]

This tweet shows the 22 House seats the Democrats are targeting to flip the House - not surprising that most are around Houston & DFW.

https://twitter.com/KarinaKling/status/1221848673396625408

 

[berlinerbaer 670]

On 1/27/2020 at 8:27 PM, Message Board User said:

This tweet shows the 22 House seats the Democrats are targeting to flip the House - not surprising that most are around Houston & DFW.

https://twitter.com/KarinaKling/status/1221848673396625408

 

Beto won in 9 districts that ended up electing a Republican state representative in 2018. 

1) That was a lot of ticket splitting.

2) Goddamn Ted Cruz is unpopular. I mean, holy shit. I can't fathom he actually runs for reelection in 2024. White House or bust for him, I think.

3) It's going to be hard to claw away the 10 seats needed to win the State House, if Beto only managed to win in 9 of them. I'm trying not to get my hopes up.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Beto won in 9 districts that ended up electing a Republican state representative in 2018. 

1) That was a lot of ticket splitting.

2) Goddamn Ted Cruz is unpopular. I mean, holy shit. I can't fathom he actually runs for reelection in 2024. White House or bust for him, I think.

3) It's going to be hard to claw away the 10 seats needed to win the State House, if Beto only managed to win in 9 of them. I'm trying not to get my hopes up.

 

I always like looking at the difference between Danny Goeb’s margin of victory in 2014 compared to 2018.

does anyone think that Fucker runs again in 2022? It might be 50/50 for him. Seems like a lot of Texans hate him.

[Js1 85056]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

quite the extrapolation

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

at some point, Dems spending too much time/money on long shots has diminishing returns.  If it's a House district that wasn't close even when Beto ran, I would stay away. Ok, put up a candidate but not much else.  if you put a $1 into that race, it's possible that you're simultaneously encouraging GOP voters who may have stayed home. That dollar might effectively be split 60/40 because the GOP is also getting the benefit. 

Without a doubt, Cruz had many voters that ran to the polls because they were seeing Beto signs everywhere and momentum building.

 

[Js1 85056]

5 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

quite the extrapolation

I think it’s stupid for Senate Bc Cornyn is not Cruz and none of the 12 nobodies will be a Beto

but that’s A very likely Shift for house races. That’s real 

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

at some point, Dems spending too much time/money on long shots has diminishing returns.  If it's a House district that wasn't close even when Beto ran, I would stay away. Ok, put up a candidate but not much else.  if you put a $1 into that race, it's possible that you're simultaneously encouraging GOP voters who may have stayed home. That dollar might effectively be split 60/40 because the GOP is also getting the benefit. 

Without a doubt, Cruz had many voters that ran to the polls because they were seeing Beto signs everywhere and momentum building.

 

I still think the kavanaugh hearing screwed Beto.....

 

and joe Donnelly, Claire mccaskill, probably Bill Nelson too.

 

heitkamp was screwed no matter what tho.

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

I think it’s stupid for Senate Bc Cornyn is not Cruz and none of the 12 nobodies will be a Beto

but that’s A very likely Shift for house races. That’s real 

I wish MJ Hegar had taken another run at John Carter. I think she could have built on her 2018 name recognition and taken advantage of the shift in Williamson County. As it stands, I doubt she has much chance of beating Cornyn, and there is no one with her presence running for Tx31 this cycle. 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

Y’all tell me why Eliz getting beat by double digits is no big deal and not a sign of things to come in November.

[gmr548 16463]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

@RayDog doxxed?

[Js1 85056]

5 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Y’all tell me why Eliz getting beat by double digits is no big deal and not a sign of things to come in November.

It’s the reddest part of FB county And an off cycle special election. Again, it was far far down the list of winnable races to take back the House. 

[gmr548 16463]

4 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Y’all tell me why Eliz getting beat by double digits is no big deal and not a sign of things to come in November.

No big deal because that is a hard red district. It's far more R than the state as a whole.

I do generally think it's at least a decent sign of things to come in state. Cornyn is not hated like Cruz and Beto ain't walking through that door. Trump is the wild card, of course, and he's not particularly popular here. His approval has fluctuated right around 50 percent. Now, that's high enough for him to feel comfortable about reelection. But Joe Biden could really push him here, especially if Trump does something to hamstring himself.

I imagine a fair amount of Cruz/Abbot voters will be Biden/Cornyn voters. Probably not enough to flip the state into the D column, but enough to slice off a chunk of the 9 percent margin in 2016 and make national Rs invest far more than historically normal. Trump has a uge campaign warchest, making him deplete a significant chunk of that in TX is a win when whatyou're really interested in is PA, MI, WI, AZ, FL, etc.

House races, both national and state, are localized enough that it's hard to extrapolate much from this single result in terms of those. The Beto/Abbot, Biden/Cornyn voters don't live in districts like this. Those are the battleground seats.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Y’all tell me why Eliz getting beat by double digits is no big deal and not a sign of things to come in November.

Texas Tribune thinks it is. 
 

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/01/29/special-texas-house-election-democrats-bit-more-they-could-chew/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[RayDog 682]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

@RayDog doxxed?

Not me. My identity is public knowledge as I have linked various papers and books I have written in other threads.

Since Republican turnout is almost always higher in special elections, it is hard to read anything into it. The demographic shifts in Texas, without a major change in turnout ratio, is 1.5 to 2% a year, so this result is about what we should expect anyway. 

[horn4life 3753]

So a safe Republican seat was won in a low turnout election by Republicans?  Damn, and I was thinking that all the efforts to keep turnout low were not an actual nationwide Republican strategy! High turnout elections generally are NOT good for Republicans.  Remember there has not been a Republican President elected for a first term with a majority of the vote in 30 years. Let me say that again. A Republican President has not received a majority of the vote in their first bid for the Presidency in 30 fucking years!  

This year is going to be a high turnout election year.  Which means it's going to be a bad year for the GOP. it's going to be a landslide after the GOP makes a mockery of their oaths of office this Friday.  It's not going to be remotely close, it's going to be a surge that will make the wipeout of 2018 look like child's play. There is no way at all that the GOP is going to gain seats in Texas in the general election.

The only way this will not happen is Russia changing vote totals with the knowledge, approval and support of President Trump.

[tx 3 putt 76159]

20 minutes ago, horn4life said:

The only way this will not happen is Russia changing vote totals with the knowledge, approval and support of President Trump.

This plan worked in 2016

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

Tough to read into that special election except that it performed as expected.  Yes the needle moved slightly left from the general election last year but still an easy R win.

dems might be biting off more they can chew by trying build on 2018 growth and perhaps they should concentrate on solidifying and retaining their new seats.  Who knows.

much will depend on who is at the top of the dem ticket and if that motivates Texas to show up or not. Not to mention that the removal of straight ticket voting is still an unknown but the GOP believed it would help then.

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Tough to read into that special election except that it performed as expected.  Yes the needle moved slightly left from the general election last year but still an easy R win.

dems might be biting off more they can chew by trying build on 2018 growth and perhaps they should concentrate on solidifying and retaining their new seats.  Who knows.

much will depend on who is at the top of the dem ticket and if that motivates Texas to show up or not. Not to mention that the removal of straight ticket voting is still an unknown but the GOP believed it would help then.

I think the urgency is because of the census and coming redistricting. This is the first time in a a long time it's been this close, and having a say in redistricting would do a lot to level the playing field in Texas. Yes it's probably a reach, but now is the time to reach, IMO. 

[RayDog 682]

I think the best shot for Texas Democrats to redistrict the House seats anytime this decade is if PR is granted statehood and Texas loses a seat.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33825]

Just a reminder to everyone in Texas: today is the deadline to register for the election this November. Please check you're properly documented: https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do
 

[Mdhorn 5908]

On 1/20/2020 at 12:29 AM, Larry T. Spider said:

The republicans can’t gerrymander their way to victory in statewide elections. The more I think about it, Dems will probably get the governorship before the senate. I could see the house being blue, the senate being red, and the statewide offices going to the more popular candidate of either party for a while. Eventually it will all be blue if the republicans party doesn’t reinvent itself after trump.

or follow the transition of Virginia. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Just a reminder to everyone in Texas: today is the deadline to register for the election this November. Please check you're properly documented: https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do
 

Today is the deadline to be able to vote in March.  not November.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33825]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Today is the deadline to be able to vote in March.  not November.

my bad. thanks.