Texas 2020 general election

[TwiceHorn 31184]

@Brisketexan@DanRydell @Ghost of LLanyone else with an informed opinion.

Is Jane Bland a hack?  I haven't been following the court like I should, probably.  She was a year ahead of me in school and one of the best students at the school. Not that I give that all that much credit, but curious.

[elfenix 34168]

is pierce bush really trying to tar the democrats with putin?  has be been living under a rock for the last 4 years?

[Ghost of LL 15348]

13 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

@Brisketexan@DanRydell @Ghost of LLanyone else with an informed opinion.

Is Jane Bland a hack?  I haven't been following the court like I should, probably.  She was a year ahead of me in school and one of the best students at the school. Not that I give that all that much credit, but curious.

I don't think I would say that.  She's only been on the Court for a year, and I didn't really follow her in Houston.  But she's participated in a surprising number of dissents (which is not necessarily a good thing).

I will say from watching a number of oral arguments, there are times when I really don't know what she's thinking when she questions counsel.  That's not necessarily a bad thing; it's just a bit unusual.

[TwiceHorn 31184]

16 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think I would say that.  She's only been on the Court for a year, and I didn't really follow her in Houston.  But she's participated in a surprising number of dissents (which is not necessarily a good thing).

I will say from watching a number of oral arguments, there are times when I really don't know what she's thinking when she questions counsel.  That's not necessarily a bad thing; it's just a bit unusual.

I do know she's been a district and appeals court judge for a ridiculous long time, like since less than 10 years out of law school.

The inscrutable questions thing is always weird and usually the mark of a very intellectual judge, in my observation.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

As I walked up, I was thinking about how it is odd that you have to publicly declare whether you are voting in the D or R primary.  "Please give me the [D/R] ballot."  People in line there know your politics.  Very odd given how much effort we put into making votes private.

Then I got to the machine and saw you just click the R or D button and they give you the correct ballot.  So it is private after all.  Nice.

Then I got online today and see the Texas SoS lists literally every human who voted and in which primary.  I can see what all my neighbors think.  Conveniently search anyone's name in an excel file  They can see what I think.  I didn't know that is how it worked and I'm not sure I'm down with it.

 

edit: but I can see my precinct voted 90-3 D yesterday.  About 96%. lulz.

Edited February 26, 2020 by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

[kevwun 15595]

That is a new thing.  The information has always been available, but you had to request a voting list from your County.  Now the State puts it on the internet for everyone to see.

[Guest Lobo]

It’s been easily available online in Texas since 2008, maybe before.  We use it all the time on informal due diligence.  Same with contributions.  

[Bruh Man 3160]

Republican voting thru Day 8:

2016: 256,981

2020:  255,386

Geez Republicans are running even w/ 2016 turnout. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

14 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Republican voting thru Day 8:

2016: 256,981

2020:  255,386

Geez Republicans are running even w/ 2016 turnout. 

The trump campaign team has put a lot of effort in turning people out to vote, even tho it doesn’t matter unless people have down ballot races they care about.

 

they don’t want to give the “ enemy of the people / liberal media” any ammunition I guess.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

10 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

The trump campaign team has put a lot of effort in turning people out to vote, even tho it doesn’t matter unless people have down ballot races they care about.

 

they don’t want to give the “ enemy of the people / liberal media” any ammunition I guess.

Most counties in Texas are going to have down-ballot races in which the GOP primary is the de facto election.  So while I'm surprised that the turnout is that high, it does make some sense.

[Chad Fuck 17503]

Most counties in Texas are going to have down-ballot races in which the GOP primary is the de facto election.  So while I'm surprised that the turnout is that high, it does make some sense.

My folks are die hard rural Dems. They’ve voted I the Rep primaries for years because of this. Only influence they have at election time.

[Huckleberry 32685]

23 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

As I walked up, I was thinking about how it is odd that you have to publicly declare whether you are voting in the D or R primary.  "Please give me the [D/R] ballot."  People in line there know your politics.  Very odd given how much effort we put into making votes private.

Then I got to the machine and saw you just click the R or D button and they give you the correct ballot.  So it is private after all.  Nice.

Then I got online today and see the Texas SoS lists literally every human who voted and in which primary.  I can see what all my neighbors think.  Conveniently search anyone's name in an excel file  They can see what I think.  I didn't know that is how it worked and I'm not sure I'm down with it.

 

edit: but I can see my precinct voted 90-3 D yesterday.  About 96%. lulz.

 

26 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

My folks are die hard rural Dems. They’ve voted I the Rep primaries for years because of this. Only influence they have at election time.

This. Seeing which primary someone voted in is hardly dispositive of which party they support in the general.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

 

This. Seeing which primary someone voted in is hardly dispositive of which party they support in the general.

well, as i mentioned up-thread, my east-side-near-fiesta precinct voted 90-3 D the other day.  it's hardly dispositive much like getting a gun shot to the head is hardly dispositive of whether you're going to die.

[kevwun 15595]

I voted in the R primary because of a local race.  I also didn't vote for a Republican above the County level and I'm going to do the same thing in the general.

Edited February 27, 2020 by kevwun

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

I voted Monday afternoon before I left town for a work trip. My WilCo spot was empty at 5:15 on a work day. The pages they had out where they put the sticker for you to sign looked like it was three pages deep on the dem side, and the R page only had 4 stickers on it. I also overheard the two people that came in as I was voting ask for a D ballot. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Wilco's rapid transition has been surprising.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I’m in western Wilco and voted yesterday. It was quite busy and the lady working said that it had been that way all day. Props to the workers for running a really friendly/efficient machine.

It was hard to tell whether more R or D ballots had been given out because they had gone through so many sticker pages of  each. In general I’ll take high turnout as it favors Dems.

Wife and I both felt strange walking up and requesting a D ballot after spending so many years on the other side. 

I’ll fire the surly libtard pac thread up again after we know who wins the primaries. Let’s see if we can’t just swing a close general election.

[Hank Scorpio 17712]

20 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Wilco's rapid transition has been surprising.

Agreed. After Jay Farrar left and formed Uncle Tupelo they really changed their sound on Summerteeth and Yankee Hotel Foxtrot. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Agreed. After Jay Farrar left and formed Uncle Tupelo they really changed their sound on Summerteeth and Yankee Hotel Foxtrot. 

that wasn't wilco.  that was uncle tupelo at the outset.  farrar formed son volt after he left.

[Hank Scorpio 17712]

I tried to vote this morning but the polling lady said they don’t have Libertarian ballots and that I couldn’t vote anyways because I refused to tell her my name or show any identification (as is my right under the Constitution and as a sovereign man) and I was open carrying 13 different firearms and concealed carrying another 11. 

[Hank Scorpio 17712]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

that wasn't wilco.  that was uncle tupelo at the outset.  farrar formed son volt after he left.

God dammit my mid 90s alt-folk-rock music knowledge is really slipping. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Just now, Hank Scorpio said:

I tried to vote this morning but the polling lady said they don’t have Libertarian ballots and that I couldn’t vote anyways because I refused to tell her my name or show any identification (as is my right under the Constitution and as a sovereign man) and I was open carrying 13 different firearms and concealed carrying another 11. 

if the flag has yellow fringe, you can officially vote if you name yourself as captain of the voting booth.

[Homercles 10205]

8 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I tried to vote this morning but the polling lady said they don’t have Libertarian ballots and that I couldn’t vote anyways because I refused to tell her my name or show any identification (as is my right under the Constitution and as a sovereign man) and I was open carrying 13 different firearms and concealed carrying another 11. 

[gmr548 16463]

Wilco's rapid transition has been surprising.

Williamson County is the poster child for educated whites fleeing the GOP. In a county where that's a big (the biggest?) voting bloc, that makes for rapid movement.


Wilco and Tarrant county have historically tracked state results very closely. Beto closed the gap in both (tight W in Wilco, essentially a tie in Tarrant) and we saw how close that race ended up being. GOP still carried both in other races though. If Ds actually close the gap across the board in those two places, that is a bellweather that a legitimately competitive Texas has really arrived.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Created and printed my cheat sheet today from President down to the local stuff. Thanks again for the recs on the judges. I had started a little looking around, but so many news sources have paywalls these days that I have to go to the Library if I don't want to subscribe to more than one. For amusements sake, I looked at both ballots. Quite a difference in the proposition wordings between the two. Although I am voting in the Democratic primary this year, #5 on the GOP prop looks like a foot in the door for the Stickland anti-vax crowd to have their say.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

Today's Trib early voting tracker.

 

The number that jumps out to me is the huge surge in Dem early voting in Bexar. There's 50k votes in that primary already. Is that b/c Castro is still on the ballot even though he's out of the race or is it something else?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

By the time of Texas's primary vote in 2016, how sure was it that Hillary was going to win the nomination?  

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Today's Trib early voting tracker.

 

The number that jumps out to me is the huge surge in Dem early voting in Bexar. There's 50k votes in that primary already. Is that b/c Castro is still on the ballot even though he's out of the race or is it something else?

Travis, bexar, and Dallas county all look really good for Dems.

tarrant still needs work tho.

[gmr548 16463]

6 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

By the time of Texas's primary vote in 2016, how sure was it that Hillary was going to win the nomination?  

Texas voted on Super Tuesday, so relatively few delegates had been awarded, but was the Democratic nomination ever really in doubt?

[Woland 729]

I live in Collin County and voted in the Republican primary to do my part to defeat the biggest wackos and especially Gina Parker, because of her support from Rick Perry. I’ll support all the Democrat candidates in the general.

[gmr548 16463]

Voting over lunch in 78759. Never seen a line like this. Clearly procrastinating was not an original idea.

[Texas73 420]

Travis county is doing a great job of getting out the vote. 99,000 have voted as of yesterday, 80,000 in the Democratic Primary and 19,000 in the Republican one, 12% of the registered voters. 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

5 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

Travis county is doing a great job of getting out the vote. 99,000 have voted as of yesterday, 80,000 in the Democratic Primary and 19,000 in the Republican one, 12% of the registered voters. 

https://www.kut.org/post/travis-county-breaks-early-voting-record-primary-110000-voters-and-counting

[Ghost of LL 15348]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Voting over lunch in 78759. Never seen a line like this. Clearly procrastinating was not an original idea.

Yeah--and I still want to see how South Carolina comes down before I vote.  So I'mma waiting to Tuesday.

[Pasken 1309]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--and I still want to see how South Carolina comes down before I vote.  So I'mma waiting to Tuesday.

What could you see in SC that would change your vote?

[Ghost of LL 15348]

What could you see in SC that would change your vote?

I’m voting strategically for who I think can consolidate the non-Bernie vote.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Voldemort86 2259]

I’d be interested to know the final overall early voting numbers in Texas.

I know they probably won’t be available until tomorrow tho.

[Message Board User 12389]

Proudly voted for Joe Biden this afternoon.

[Pancho 44358]

Kathleen Wall's commercials are a fucking beating. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Travis County Ds not fucking around.  Nearly doubled 2016's raw early turnout.

YEAR	REG. VOTERS	VOTES	PERCENT
2020	822,720	108,778	13.22%
2018	736,112	61,772	8.39%
2016	667,116	61,014	9.15%
2012	594,254	13,482	2.27%

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Travis County Ds not fucking around.  Nearly doubled 2016's raw early turnout.

YEAR	REG. VOTERS	VOTES	PERCENT
2020	822,720	108,778	13.22%
2018	736,112	61,772	8.39%
2016	667,116	61,014	9.15%
2012	594,254	13,482	2.27%

If we ever win a statewide race again.

those are the first people to thank. I’m very pleased with Dallas counties vote totals tho as well.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[gmr548 16463]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

If we ever win a statewide race again.

those are the first people to thank. I’m very pleased with Dallas counties vote totals tho as well.

If Harris, Dallas, and Bexar, and El Paso Counties had Travis County's voter registration/turnout rates, we wouldn't be talking about Texas being a blue state. It would be one.

[gmr548 16463]

On 2/28/2020 at 8:04 PM, Voldemort86 said:

I’d be interested to know the final overall early voting numbers in Texas.

I know they probably won’t be available until tomorrow tho.

Sorry for the double quote, wmeant to link for you. Totals by county: https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getEVDetails.do

[Voldemort86 2259]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If Harris, Dallas, and Bexar, and El Paso Counties had Travis County's voter registration/turnout rates, we wouldn't be talking about Texas being a blue state. It would be one.

Harris and Bexar still have too many republicans.

 

dems also need to at least break even / barely win tarrant county too.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

Hillary won bexar county 54.5 to 41.

Hillary won Harris county 54.2 to 41.8.

Those are pretty good margins. The margin would actually be wider if with higher turnout as democrats are more likely to be have their vote suppressed.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

Williamson county will be an interesting one to watch. Trump won it 52-42 in 2016. It seems to have moved much more to the left in the last 4 years. There will be over 200k votes so it’s a big one to at least break even in.

[Voldemort86 2259]

22 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Hillary won bexar county 54.5 to 41.

Hillary won Harris county 54.2 to 41.8.

Those are pretty good margins. The margin would actually be wider if with higher turnout as democrats are more likely to be have their vote suppressed.

The reason it’s not good enough is because nearly all of Texas rural counties and east Texas are margins like 90% repub to 10% dem.

[gmr548 16463]

27 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Hillary won bexar county 54.5 to 41.

Hillary won Harris county 54.2 to 41.8.

Those are pretty good margins. The margin would actually be wider if with higher turnout as democrats are more likely to be have their vote suppressed.

 

33 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Harris and Bexar still have too many republicans.

 

dems also need to at least break even / barely win tarrant county too.

 

18 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Williamson county will be an interesting one to watch. Trump won it 52-42 in 2016. It seems to have moved much more to the left in the last 4 years. There will be over 200k votes so it’s a big one to at least break even in.

Those margins are getting wider every year. Highly popular Greg Abbott still lost those counties 52-46. Beto got 60 and 58 percent in Harris and Bexar, respectively. Those are the high and low end of the spectrum for 2018. Knowing that and looking at the other statewide races, those counties were about 56 percent D in 2018. They should be 58-60 percent D in 2020. Dallas, Travis, and EP are all 60-70 percent Democratic. Those five alone are 40 percent of the state population voting at 60+ percent Democratic clip. Travis County has a huge turnout rate for Texas, which was more so my point, but if those four counties were similar in that regard the state would have flipped already. Or rather, it'd be a solid tossup and we'd be talking about Senator O'Rourke.

Williamson and Tarrant are both good ones to watch because their results have historically mirrored the state as a whole. Change has really been accelerated in Williamson County because of spillover from Austin. Tarrant will probably still be Trump +5-6 but I think Williamson will go all the way from Trump +10 to essentially even or even slight D. Beto carried it by two points and Trump is pretty close to Cruz in terms of public opinion.

Edited March 3, 2020 by gmr548

[Voldemort86 2259]

50 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

Those margins are getting wider every year. Highly popular Greg Abbott still lost those counties 52-46. Beto got 60 and 58 percent in Harris and Bexar, respectively. Those are the high and low end of the spectrum for 2018. Knowing that and looking at the other statewide races, those counties were about 56 percent D in 2018. They should be 58-60 percent D in 2020. Dallas, Travis, and EP are all 60-70 percent Democratic. Those five alone are 40 percent of the state population voting at 60+ percent Democratic clip. Travis County has a huge turnout rate for Texas, which was more so my point, but if those four counties were similar in that regard the state would have flipped already. Or rather, it'd be a solid tossup and we'd be talking about Senator O'Rourke.

Williamson and Tarrant are both good ones to watch because their results have historically mirrored the state as a whole. Change has really been accelerated in Williamson County because of spillover from Austin. Tarrant will probably still be Trump +5-6 but I think Williamson will go all the way from Trump +10 to essentially even or even slight D. Beto carried it by two points and Trump is pretty close to Cruz in terms of public opinion.

I’m not just saying it because I live here, but it really feels like tarrant is the most important county on the board.

dems just need it to be blue.

 

repubs need to make it redder. Build up some extra votes to offset losses in Harris / Bexar.

I do show up and vote blue every single election.

I can’t believe Beto won Tarrant in 2018. Either people here really hate trump or Beto just made a bunch of the soccer moms who drive luxury cars pussies wet.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Voldemort86