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Texas Agricultural & Mechanical University vs. Texas State (7:30 SEC Network)

Pancho

By Pancho
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UncleBuck
UncleBuck

I was in attendance at the A&M game last nigh, and here are some thoughts:   I am a Texas State grad who just happened to be in the area on business and was invited to the game by a cust

Huckleberry
Huckleberry

While I typically root for University of Texas subsidiaries (UTSA, UTEP) against outsiders, in this case I will be rooting for my daughter's new school to beat our Agricultural and Mechanical branch.

WBT
WBT

what kind of bastardized rating method is this?

SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8766

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

If the OL performs the whole season the way they did last night, Mond isn’t going to make it through the whole season.

This.right.here^^^^^

He's going to take a beating, especially in the second halves of games against better opponents.  The cubes up front will be exhausted and totally flounder.

Edited by SHOOTER12
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SwanderedTalent

SwanderedTalent 5761

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BurdineBandit said:

When you really think about it, we're definitely a level below 2 SEC teams we've beaten in our last 2 bowl games. And truly on par with South Carolina. [/sarcasm]

we would definitely be the 9th best team in the SEC and saying so in no way undermines the credibility of the power rating in question

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

Well, MP has Texas rated higher than either S&P+ or FPI, so I would think Texas fans would find it to be relatively more "objective" and "accurate."  Will have to dig through the power rank to find a more "objective" rating system that both has Texas relatively high and Texas A&M relatively low.    

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
Just now, Beau Vine said:

You posted a *preseason* computer ranking.  If you don't see the stupid in that, you're beyond hope.

What else would you rely on for projecting performance for 2019?  Just assume total ignorance and that each conference is equally likely to be the best this year?

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 53628

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

What else would you rely on for projecting performance for 2019?  Just assume total ignorance and that each conference is equally likely to be the best this year?

That would literally be just as good as looking at a *preseason* computer ranking.  In fact, some of the major computer rankings actually do that -- they start with initial ratings of everyone the same.  

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32149

Posted
Posted

FPI and SP+ are the only things we can rely on as a prediction of 2019 team strength. Before computers existed nobody had any idea who was going to be good going into a season. Beano Cook was some sort of wizard, I guess, when he convinced ABC and the schools to move the Texas @ Arkansas game in 1969. Or maybe he had a time machine and calculated his own SP+.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 12520

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

That would literally be just as good as looking at a *preseason* computer ranking.  In fact, some of the major computer rankings actually do that -- they start with initial ratings of everyone the same.  

Computers are only as good as the data they have access to. I suspect they are ranking us low because of the players we lost, but I don't think that in our case it will be that big of a deal. A bunch of Charlie Strong recruits being replaced is not going to tank us.

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DaysOff

DaysOff 7672

Posted
Posted
What else would you rely on for projecting performance for 2019?  Just assume total ignorance and that each conference is equally likely to be the best this year?
I guess I'll rely on the fact that the sec went 1-3 against the big12 in its most recent games.
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C-Man

C-Man 26538

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, DaysOff said:
45 minutes ago, Fozzz said:
What else would you rely on for projecting performance for 2019?  Just assume total ignorance and that each conference is equally likely to be the best this year?

I guess I'll rely on the fact that the sec went 1-3 against the big12 in its most recent games.

Yeah, but they only really cared in 25% of those games.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 53628

Posted
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Computers are only as good as the data they have access to. I suspect they are ranking us low because of the players we lost, but I don't think that in our case it will be that big of a deal. A bunch of Charlie Strong recruits being replaced is not going to tank us.

The point is that it's not even the computer ranking us.  That's Chris Massey putting in initial values to start his ranking system.   Like Huck said, other than FPI and S&P, a "preseason computer ranking" is not done by a computer.

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J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nivek said:
 
  On 8/29/2019 at 10:06 AM, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:
Keeping their graduation rate up, I see

 


My professor advised me to go to Texas so I did. He was an Aggie.
 

 

Can't argue with that.  Still hurts TxState's graduation rate, though.  Not nearly as bad as all the CAP students making UTSA look like even more of a dropout factory that it already is.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14076

Posted
Posted (edited)

1-Mond was improved but he was hit a lot against a team like Texas State. If A&M's OL doesn't improve I doubt Mond makes it through the year. 

2-I'm not sure why aggys think RB is a strength? Corbin is a decent back but doesn't have much wiggle. After that it's a true freshman RB in Spiller. They don't have a back on the roster anywhere close to Trayveon Williams. 

3-OL. Absolute shit show. Kenyon Green is their only lineman with some talent and he's still going to make 8-10 dumb freshman mistakes like he did last night against Texas State. Their tackles are awful. 

4-TE. With no Cupp or Sternberger this is going to be a huge drop off from last year. No receiving threat and as Tarp mentioned they aren't very good at run blocking either. 

5-WR. Good group and probably their best position group. Ausbon is overrated. They have a bunch of guys with injury histories in this group. 

6-DE. Probably the most surprising group last night (not in a good way). Texas State's tackles actually held up fairly well in pass pro. Keke was a DT playing DE last year but A&M doesn't have anyone as talented as Keke this year. I was surprised at how well Texas State held up in pass pro at tackle. Tyree Johnson and Clemons are jaggy to me. After that it's a bunch of FR. 

7-DT. This is where A&M dominated Texas State. Texas State couldn't generate anything between the tackles. This is probably A&M's 2nd best position group with Madubuike, Peevy and Brown. 

8-LB. Tough to get a read on that group because Texas State rarely got to the 2nd level and they weren't forced to do much.

9-CB/Safety. Like LB tough to read because Texas State is the worst passing team I've seen at this level. I'm going to guess A&M is slightly improved in the secondary but I have no clue based on this game. They were playing a HS level team from a passing perspective. 

Where A&M is going to struggle against decent competition is they are average to below average at every position group on the OL/DL outside of defensive tackle. 

 

 

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texaslong

texaslong 678

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, DaysOff said:
1 hour ago, Fozzz said:
What else would you rely on for projecting performance for 2019?  Just assume total ignorance and that each conference is equally likely to be the best this year?

I guess I'll rely on the fact that the sec went 1-3 against the big12 in its most recent games.

That stat is very misleading though. Had the top of the SEC been able to play the bottom of the Big 12 that stat would look very different. You know the SEC is better. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

FPI and SP+ are the only things we can rely on as a prediction of 2019 team strength. Before computers existed nobody had any idea who was going to be good going into a season. Beano Cook was some sort of wizard, I guess, when he convinced ABC and the schools to move the Texas @ Arkansas game in 1969. Or maybe he had a time machine and calculated his own SP+.

The projection systems utilize more or less the same data that a random fan is when he formulates his "gut" projections for the next season, the systems are just doing it in a more comprehensive, objective manner while emphasizing the particular data that is most salient in projecting future performance.  Obviously that isn't to say that they are perfect, but they are better than any tools that were around in 1969 and it is reasonable, and certainly not idiotic, to rely on them as a baseline for discussion. 

Do you think people on this site question the superiority of the SEC because they are taking into account valuable information unaccounted for by the projection systems (leading those systems to overrate the SEC) or because their favorite team plays in another conference?

 

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ShowmeyourTDs

ShowmeyourTDs 1140

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, UncleBuck said:

I was in attendance at the A&M game last nigh, and here are some thoughts:

 

I am a Texas State grad who just happened to be in the area on business and was invited to the game by a customer. I didn't know what to expect, but I must say I was blown away by the hospitality.

 

When the Bobcats ran out, an aggie fan behind me, who noticed my Texas State cap, said to me, "Wow, your team really looks good in those uniforms." Not expecting this, I leaned over to my customer and asked, "Is this how it is at every game? You guys being so nice to the visiting fans?" Then all of the sudden the customer started frenching me right there in front of everyone. I'm like, "Whoa man what's that all about?" Unknown to me, in between the teams running out and the nice lady behind me complimenting TX State, A&M had already scored a touchdown. "We kiss after touchdowns here, my friend." explained the customer. "Okay, Cool?"

 

Unfortunately A&M would score more that night. I don't know if the guy roofied me or what, but it seemed as if they stadium was swaying, and there were men dressed in white overalls acting like cheerleaders. Apparently they even welcomed in a foreign country's military to watch the game. They kissed each other as well.

 

After the game, the customer took me out to the "bar" area of town. The people there were so nice, saying what a good team we had. 

 

Next thing, I woke up in a hotel room with some lady named Karen. She was maybe in her 60s, and had a tramp stamp that said "Jimbo, tho." It was kinda weird, but she was nice.

 

Just thought I'd share my experience. 

 

Jack. 

I assume you had no trouble finding the stadium since you went with your customer.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Computers are only as good as the data they have access to. I suspect they are ranking us low because of the players we lost, but I don't think that in our case it will be that big of a deal. A bunch of Charlie Strong recruits being replaced is not going to tank us.

This is called wishcasting.  

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14076

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

The projection systems utilize more or less the same data that a random fan is when he formulates his "gut" projections for the next season, the systems are just doing it in a more comprehensive, objective manner while emphasizing the particular data that is most salient in projecting future performance.  Obviously that isn't to say that they are perfect, but they are better than any tools that were around in 1969 and it is reasonable, and certainly not idiotic, to rely on them as a baseline for discussion. 

Do you think people on this site question the superiority of the SEC because they are taking into account valuable information unaccounted for by the projection systems (leading those systems to overrate the SEC) or because their favorite team plays in another conference?

 

what a dork. You're the type nerd that makes people hate advanced metrics. 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Have the computers gotten their pre-season ranking correct in the past? If so then you are correct.

Up until last season S&P would usually overrate Texas based off of Texas' high recruiting rankings.  Hell, even in 2018 the preseason projected S&P was a bit better than where Texas finished (27th vs 32nd).  

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

The point is that it's not even the computer ranking us.  That's Chris Massey putting in initial values to start his ranking system.   Like Huck said, other than FPI and S&P, a "preseason computer ranking" is not done by a computer.

That’s not what he’s saying. Huck’s merely exercising the lowest form of wit. 

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2737

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

1-Mond was improved but he was hit a lot against a team like Texas State. If A&M's OL doesn't improve I doubt Mond makes it through the year. 

2-I'm not sure why aggys think RB is a strength? Corbin is a decent back but doesn't have much wiggle. After that it's a true freshman RB in Spiller. They don't have a back on the roster anywhere close to Trayveon Williams. 

3-OL. Absolute shit show. Kenyon Green is their only lineman with some talent and he's still going to make 8-10 dumb freshman mistakes like he did last night against Texas State. Their tackles are awful. 

4-TE. With no Cupp or Sternberger this is going to be a huge drop off from last year. No receiving threat and as Tarp mentioned they aren't very good at run blocking either. 

5-WR. Good group and probably their best position group. Ausbon is overrated. They have a bunch of guys with injury histories in this group. 

6-DE. Probably the most surprising group last night (not in a good way). Texas State's tackles actually held up fairly well in pass pro. Keke was a DT playing DE last year but A&M doesn't have anyone as talented as Keke this year. I was surprised at how well Texas State held up in pass pro at tackle. Tyree Johnson and Clemons are jaggy to me. After that it's a bunch of FR. 

7-DT. This is where A&M dominated Texas State. Texas State couldn't generate anything between the tackles. This is probably A&M's 2nd best position group with Madubuike, Peevy and Brown. 

8-LB. Tough to get a read on that group because Texas State rarely got to the 2nd level and they weren't forced to do much.

9-CB/Safety. Like LB tough to read because Texas State is the worst passing team I've seen at this level. I'm going to guess A&M is slightly improved in the secondary but I have no clue based on this game. They were playing a HS level team from a passing perspective. 

Where A&M is going to struggle against decent competition is they are average to below average at every position group on the OL/DL outside of defensive tackle. 

 

 

Rebuttal:

QB: Mond was easily the best QB on the field, and there were multiple SEC signal callers in the stadium. Jimbo is a QB whisperer.

RB: Corbin gashed TxSt repeatedly, often actually gaining yards in the teeth of an defense that played its super bowl last night.

OL: This is recognized as a key position any any team. Green, to pick one example, was so talented that he has been named a starter already. Mond’s Pocket was so clean that he was able to walk out after the game under his own power.

TE: Clemson will be stuck playing the guessing game trying to game-plan for the ag’s Use of TEs as Jimbo brilliantly directed his offense to a blowout win without tipping his hand here. They pretty much decoyed at The top in-state SEC home stadium last night.

WR: undeniable team strength. Abused the TxSt’s vaunted “golfers in the rough” recruits.

DE: Lack of sacks doesn’t tell the story of how this unit unloaded on the ‘cats at roaring Kyle field. Did not allow enough time to make a sandwich on more than the most insignificant smattering of plays.

DT: Another undeniable strength. JMad, Peevy, and co making redass ags remember how great the wrecking crew could be. With similar opponents and upgrades at a few surrounding positions, this D could wreck some shop.

LB:  Smart money says Buddy may be the best ag LB in decades if not ever. Feaster never publicly denied the well known fact that he chose SC to allow extra time to get ready for this bunch instead of staying at Clemson or transferring to his first choice at TxSt.

DB: They don’t call A&M DBU for nothing. Leon beat out a handful of talented freshman for the starting S nod, and two different SEC starting corners faced that shocked TSU receiver core.

Summary: Clemson better look out. Moral means good, and the ags’ victories are moral ones no doubt.

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C-Man

C-Man 26538

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Up until last season S&P would usually overrate Texas based off of Texas' high recruiting rankings.  Hell, even in 2018 the preseason projected S&P was a bit better than where Texas finished (27th vs 32nd).  

I haven't really paid much attention to S&P before the latter part of this thread but a quick glance at 2018 offers the following hilarity:

  • Clemson is 3rd behind #1 Bama (44-16 losers to Clemson in the title game) #2 Georgia (whipped by Texas in the Sugar Bowl)
  • Texas behind teams such as: Michigan State (7-6), Appalachian State (11-2), Miami (7-6), Kentucky (10-3), Iowa (9-4), South Carolina (7-6) and Missouri (8-5)
  • Auburn at #7, Mississippi State at #8, Missouri at #11 and South Carolina at #19
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C-Man

C-Man 26538

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Up until last season S&P would usually overrate Texas based off of Texas' high recruiting rankings.  Hell, even in 2018 the preseason projected S&P was a bit better than where Texas finished (27th vs 32nd).  

It does? Based on what I've seen, recruiting rankings don't factor into the S&P.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/2018

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3215

Posted
Posted

To understand just how bad aggy's rushing performance was last night you needed to watch the TSU defensive alignment.  They consistently went with a light box and aggy still had great difficulty running against it.  Against 11 personnel, there were typically 5 defenders in the box with 1 overhang man.  Outside of short-yardage I only saw the Bobcats commit 7 inside the box when aggy used 22 personnel.

It's easy to imagine that things get a lot worse against defenses that are individually more talented.  But those defenses will also be in a position to use 2 high safeties to blanket 11 personnel while still putting an extra defender in the box.  A bigger, faster defense with a free hitter against the run is going to seriously impact an already unimpressive running game.

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14076

Posted
Posted

https://www.secrant.com/rant/texas-a-m-sports/texas-state-bobcats-7-vs-fighting-texas-aggies-41-final/85050228/page-20/

aggy with a rational approach to last night's game so of course he was downvoted 6 times. 

"We will lose to Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, Miss State, Georgia, and LSU. Minimum. It's just not looking very good. That was a really shitty team we just played and their Jr. High DL made us look weak."
 

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Rickylovesweed

Rickylovesweed 14076

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

To understand just how bad aggy's rushing performance was last night you needed to watch the TSU defensive alignment.  They consistently went with a light box and aggy still had great difficulty running against it.  Against 11 personnel, there were typically 5 defenders in the box with 1 overhang man.  Outside of short-yardage I only saw the Bobcats commit 7 inside the box when aggy used 22 personnel.

It's easy to imagine that things get a lot worse against defenses that are individually more talented.  But those defenses will also be in a position to use 2 high safeties to blanket 11 personnel while still putting an extra defender in the box.  A bigger, faster defense with a free hitter against the run is going to seriously impact an already unimpressive running game.

Yeah, they controlled the run game and consistently got pressure without committing numbers. None of that matters of course when you have a JR high secondary going against a quality WR group. 

 

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jinx

jinx 2635

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Well, MP has Texas rated higher than either S&P+ or FPI, so I would think Texas fans would find it to be relatively more "objective" and "accurate."  Will have to dig through the power rank to find a more "objective" rating system that both has Texas relatively high and Texas A&M relatively low.    

How about wins and losses.  I'm an engineer, and I am well versed in garbage in equals garbage out.  If the model doesn't fit reality, you just alter reality right?

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Tex Long

Tex Long 4264

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jinx said:

How about wins and losses.  I'm an engineer, and I am well versed in garbage in equals garbage out.  If the model doesn't fit reality, you just alter reality right?

Not at all. You add (or change) "constants" to bring the model back into line.

 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 12520

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Up until last season S&P would usually overrate Texas based off of Texas' high recruiting rankings.  Hell, even in 2018 the preseason projected S&P was a bit better than where Texas finished (27th vs 32nd).  

So you are saying these kinds of projections are usually wrong because simply going off things like recruiting rankings and returning personnel is not very accurate?

Point taken. 

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