Jump to content

2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
in Cloak Room

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 6.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted (edited)

U.S. House District 3

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE VOTE PCT.  
Richard Ojeda 13,963 52.2%  
Shirley Love 6,907 25.8  
Paul Davis 3,657 13.7  
Janice Hagerman 2,199 8.2  

26,726 votes, 40% reporting (244 of 612 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE VOTE PCT.  
Marty Gearheart 3,768 20.9%  
Carol Miller 3,761 20.8  
Rupert Phillips 3,327 18.4  
 Others 7,199 39.9  

18,055 votes, 40% reporting (244 of 612 precincts)    

The man with the most votes on those lists might be cause for concern in some circles. I think it's the Atlantic that had an article on him recently. 

He's interesting. 

Edited by cactusflinthead
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bolverk

bolverk 29,399

Posted
Posted

Fortunately, it looks like Blakenship in West Virginia is toast.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/08/us/elections/results-west-virginia-primary-elections.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

(friendly reminder to open above link in incognito to avoid paywall issues)

As for the other two Republican candidates, can someone kindly explain the north/south divide in that state? I have next to zero knowledge of the internal politics of West Virginia. Thanks in advance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14,518

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

Evan Jenkins is running second to Morrisey. He gave up the the district that Ojeda is going to take to run for Senate. That's about all i got. 

Ojeda is going to be a Democratic pickup in a district they have no business winning.....

Edited by Aqua Buddha
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted

Ojeda 

All of this has made Ojeda as confident about his prospects as Ball. “I’m going to blow through my primary,” he matter-of-factly told me in his office. That’s in May. And in the general election come November? His campaign manager is an over-the-road truck driver, his communications director is a single mother who lives in Mingo County with her parents and her 5-year-old son, and most of his unlikely, ragtag campaign staff isn’t being paid—and yet, fresh internal polling Ojeda shared with me shows he’s not only projected to win the race, but he’s beating his two likeliest GOP opponents among GOP voters. “I’m kicking the shit out of the Republicans,” he said.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bolverk

bolverk 29,399

Posted
Posted
Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

wish Blankenship would have won.  Rs will pick up a big seat here now. 

I understand the sentiment that he would've been easier to beat in the general, but I'll just be happy that West Virginian Republicans chose not to support a complete shitbag as their party representative: progress.

Good news for representative democracy on the Ohio front. It looks like a statewide ballot for "Issue 1" has overwhelming support (~73%). It's a bipartisan compromise for reworking how they conduct the redistricting process. Read more:

http://radio.wosu.org/post/what-you-need-know-about-issue-1-ohios-redistricting-proposal#stream/0

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE VOTE PCT.  
Rupert Phillips 6,684 20.7%  
Carol Miller 6,613 20.5  
Marty Gearheart 6,470 20.0  
 Others 12,545 38.8  

32,312 votes, 87% reporting (535 of 612 precincts

 

others are kicking everybody's ass. That's Ojeda's competition

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bolverk

bolverk 29,399

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Ojeda 

All of this has made Ojeda as confident about his prospects as Ball. “I’m going to blow through my primary,” he matter-of-factly told me in his office. That’s in May. And in the general election come November? His campaign manager is an over-the-road truck driver, his communications director is a single mother who lives in Mingo County with her parents and her 5-year-old son, and most of his unlikely, ragtag campaign staff isn’t being paid—and yet, fresh internal polling Ojeda shared with me shows he’s not only projected to win the race, but he’s beating his two likeliest GOP opponents among GOP voters. “I’m kicking the shit out of the Republicans,” he said.

West Virginia is one of only 10 states I've never been to, and what do you know? The famous Mingo County, the only one I could ever muster to name, makes it's way into the story above. It must be a really fascinating corner of West Virginia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted

Yeah, it wasn't the Atlantic. it was that bastion of dirty fucking hippies over at Mother Jones

Quote

A gun-loving, pro-life, pro-coal Trump voter who once promised to “fistfight” Barack Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency, Ojeda doesn’t fit the profile of a progressive firebrand, and in many ways he’s not. He’s seeking to replace Republican Rep. Evan Jenkins, who is leaving to run for the US Senate, in a district President Donald Trump carried by 49 points. But the strike was a catalyst for a Resistance of a different sort. In places like West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, teachers and other public employees were rebelling less against Trump than against decades of austerity while corporations—particularly extractive industries—bled their states dry. Ojeda, like the man he supported for president, has found a following in West Virginia by talking about the state’s economic and political powers with unusual directness. But he wants to channel that anger toward far different ends. And he might even win.

He Voted for Trump. Now He’s Running for Congress as a Pro-Pot, Pro-Coal Democrat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted
About G. Elliott Morris
Elliott is a ("big") data journalist and data scientist who specializes in American politics, public opinion, and predictive analytics. He is a government, history, and computer science student at The University of Texas at Austin and worked previously for the Pew Research Center and Decision Desk HQ.
 
 
hmm. I wonder if he is smart enough to avoid this place or if he has been infected too. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15,212

Posted
Posted

CNN poll: Democrats' 2018 advantage is nearly gone

It's gotta be bad if CNN is admitting this in their headline.

Quote

About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% -- including nearly half of independent voters (48%) -- say it doesn't matter which party controls Congress.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22,600

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

CNN poll: Democrats' 2018 advantage is nearly gone

It's gotta be bad if CNN is admitting this in their headline.

  

Ah, so I guess today is one of those days where we can trust CNN polling. 

As someone hoping for a big Democrat in in November, I'd much prefer these headlines than the "Democrats have everything locked up" ones.  Given that special election results are statistically a more reliable predictor of midterm results than the general ballot polling, the Democrats are most likely still in the same spot we've all imagined, but more headlines like this will hopefully ensure that none of the voters on the left get complacent leading up to election day.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15,212

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Ah, so I guess today is one of those days where we can trust CNN polling. 

As someone hoping for a big Democrat in in November, I'd much prefer these headlines than the "Democrats have everything locked up" ones.  Given that special election results are statistically a more reliable predictor of midterm results than the general ballot polling, the Democrats are most likely still in the same spot we've all imagined, but more headlines like this will hopefully ensure that none of the voters on the left get complacent leading up to election day.

 

 

Quite the opposite.  For CNN to posit such dire news this far out, it is more than likely much, much worse. 

Still, as long as the Dems don't shoot themselves in the foot in California next month ( which is possible) the democrats stand to gain roughly 7-10 seats from just the states of Pennsylvania and California alone. 

The generic ballot is showing signs of tightening up, but the repubs are not out of the woods yet.

Then hopefully Pelois can get hard to work raising those taxes!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted

It's hard to gauge which names are actually new people and which are new handles to previous participants. It doesn't matter either way though. 

It is a long way to November. One poll isn't going to scare me. It might spur me to work harder. The exodus of Republicans from the House has happened. The historical context of the election tends towards a pick up of the House, the Senate would be a bonus bowl of gravy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,414

Posted
Posted
On 4/7/2018 at 12:06 AM, cactusflinthead said:

Farenthold finally decided it is time to quit. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-06/gop-rep-farenthold-resigns-from-congress?utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

 

Farenthold back in the news.  Port Lavaca port authority hired him to lobby Congress and be their political liaison. 160K per year. Maybe he will make good on his promise to repay congress but I doubt it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,414

Posted
Posted

Surprising to me that Port Lavaca/Point Comfort will pay a lobbyist 160K annually for what I imagine is an extremely part time job.   I wonder if Alcoa  (main user of the port) specifically asked for Farenthold.  Apparently recent members of Congress have a waiting period for being a lobbyist UNLESS they are a lobbyist for a state or local govt.   This way he can basically lobby for Alcoa but start immediately.  

Anyone know if Farenthold did anything particularly useful for Alcoa while in congress?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
Posted

Real tight race between Brad Ashford and Kara Eastman for Dem challenger in NE-2. It’s one of the House races that the DNC is targeting for a flip, with Ashford being their preferred candidate. Currently Ashford has a ~100 vote lead with around 22k votes in.
Unfortunately I don’t think either is a strong candidate. This is Kara’s first run at political office, she’s not a particularly smooth talker, and she is pro-choice which I think is a significant liability. Ashford is a former Republican and definitely plays the part of the old white guy moderate, which isn’t really going to invigorate the base. In 2014 he beat a deeply flawed Republican incumbent who was being criticized by many in the GOP. 2 years later Ashford lost to Don Bacon, who is running for re-election this year. Now we get a rematch. Yay! I think Ashford has a decent chance of winning, while I think Kara is a long shot.

I really wish we had a better candidate, but we’ve done a shit job of building a good Democratic bench.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
Posted
Real tight race between Brad Ashford and Kara Eastman for Dem challenger in NE-2. It’s one of the House races that the DNC is targeting for a flip, with Ashford being their preferred candidate. Currently Ashford has a ~100 vote lead with around 22k votes in.


Eastman surged ahead overnight. I think it reduces the chances for a Dem pickup, but at least I don’t have to watch Ashford’s boring ass commercials of him jogging.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted

Former congressman Blake Farenthold (R-Tex.) told a reporter Tuesday that he will not reimburse taxpayers for the $84,000 in public funds used to settle a 2014 sexual harassment lawsuit.

Farenthold, who resigned in April, told ABC News that his lawyers advised him not to repay the Treasury Department for the settlement amount.

WaPo 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, TahoeHorn said:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/16/takeaways-primary-elections-590954

Quote

Ashford, meanwhile, held nearly all the advantages of incumbency in Omaha: high name recognition and party support, named to the DCCC’s “Red-to-Blue” list of favored challengers. But Eastman, a first-time candidate, harnessed liberal energy to beat Ashford in a district that the former congressman lost to Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) in 2016.

I think they overstate Ashford's advantages.  I think he was talked into running by the national party. Before Kara announced, local Dems asked if he was going to run. He said he wasn't going to.  Had he indicated an interest, Kara probably would have avoided the fight, but she filed to avoid an open seat. Then his wife flirted with the idea.  Then his wife backed off, and he declared.  He never engaged the party at the county level, as far as I could tell.  He sent a representative to speak at grassroots groups, where Kara would attend herself.  One of the things Bacon hammered him on in 2016 was an unwillingness to do townhalls, and, through his representative, he wouldn't commit to doing townhalls.  The only way he was going to beat Bacon, two years after losing to him despite the power of the incumbency, is if folks were just so disgusted with the GOP and he rode the blue wave.  Ashford, and the national party, were using the same fucking playbook from four years ago and times are different. 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Seriously.  If Blankenship gets on the ballot that election is all but over. 

He can be a write-in candidate, so you can go ahead and make WV a leans Democrat senate race.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22,600

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

R(s) take lead in generic ballot according to Reuters.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180522/collapsed/true

If you look at that graph, the tide turns almost instantly after Trump brought on Rudy and they started ramping up the public criticism of the Russia investigation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...