2018 - Elections and Trends

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

 The cartoon is also baffling to me substantively. Is there a single piece of data anywhere that supports the thought that there is going to be a red wave?  Seems the only indications range from blue wave to hold serve. 

[EMAWesome 101]

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Not sure how she's a "radical," but OK.

He is correct that a lot of what is going on now is a class struggle and not left vs. right.  

This kind of says more about you, and the Democrat party in general than it does her.  I would call wanting to abolish ICE a fairly radical proposition.

[Js1 85313]

4 minutes ago, Dick Tremayne said:

But do you disagree that the GOP was pushed further right? From my perspective, that is exactly what happened and they gained seats. The hope of those of us on the left is that victories like this will push the Democratic Party further to the left AND enable them to gain seats. Stop focusing on moderation and trying to appeal to "sane Republicans" with centrist policies and civility and focus on leftists who haven't had a voice in the Democratic Party in a very long time. I hope this is just the beginning but that remains to be seen.

 

I agree with you 100% regarding the media and pundits. 24 hours ago, the vast majority of them had never heard of Ocasio-Cortez.

Yes they were. Does this win push the Democratic Party further left? Somewhat.  She's not much further left than Crowley.  Less "corporatist," which is great.

For every Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Beto O'Rourke, you have a Conor Lamb or Doug Jones somewhere else. Big tent.

[David Dennison 18854]

3 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

This kind of says more about you, and the Democrat party in general than it does her.  I would call wanting to abolish ICE a fairly radical proposition.

Calling for the elimination of a hastily planned and redundant law enforcement agency that was established out of fear in 2003 is hardly radical.

[Js1 85313]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Calling for the elimination of a hastily planned and redundant law enforcement agency that was established out of fear in 2003 is hardly radical.

So radical.

Quote

This is an enforcement agency that takes on more of a paramilitary tone every single day. It has no accountability with the Department of Justice. There is very little institutional knowledge or a history of due process with ICE. It’s basically a product of the Bush-era Patriot Act suite of legislation.

So I think all of these pieces of legislation, whether it’s the Patriot Act or the [2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force], which allows for endless war without the approval of Congress, and ICE as well, are part of a much bigger picture that, at the end of the day, erodes American civil liberties. These all deserve to be revisited and, if not reformed, repealed. Some of the things that we’re hearing coming out of ICE are totally horrific. We’re seeing them seeking to destroy records of sexual assaults, we have deaths that have gone uninvestigated, and no one is holding this agency accountable because this agency is not designed to be held accountable.

Forcing ICE to be accountable and actually follow due process? Such a scandal.

[Tuco 5076]

21 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

I'm leaning about 60/40 towards you already know this but in case you don't.  Your reaction to this is why he does this.

It's actually your reaction which he is banking on. 

[Chrispy 132]

14 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

I'm leaning about 60/40 towards you already know this but in case you don't.  Your reaction to this is why he does this.

Correct, they take the bait every single time. If they were smarter, they’d meet these ridiculous tweets with crickets. He’s clearly not going to give up Twitter of his own volition, which is admittedly disappointing. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

11 minutes ago, Chrispy said:

Correct, they take the bait every single time. If they were smarter, they’d meet these ridiculous tweets with crickets. He’s clearly not going to give up Twitter of his own volition, which is admittedly disappointing. 

If a Trump tweets on a shitter and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

[Fozzz 152]

lmao HenryKrinkle found texags

 

 

[Huckleberry 32854]

13 minutes ago, Chrispy said:

Correct, they take the bait every single time. If they were smarter, they’d meet these ridiculous tweets with crickets. He’s clearly not going to give up Twitter of his own volition, which is admittedly disappointing. 

lulz what an idiotic take. Trump is a megalomaniacal narcissist. Every time he tweets 100,000 Trumpkins like the tweet. He's not going to stop even if nobody who hates him ever reads another tweet.

[Chrispy 132]

5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

If a Trump tweets on a shitter and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

Good question, I truly don’t know. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

lmao HenryKrinkle found texags

 

 

Hyphenated names have never been a problem.  The bigger problem is people who use their first and middle names.  I think David Allan Coe is the only one who isn't a serial killer.

[Chrispy 132]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

lulz what an idiotic take. Trump is a megalomaniacal narcissist. Every time he tweets 100,000 Trumpkins like the tweet. He's not going to stop even if nobody who hates him ever reads another tweet.

I believe that depends entirely on the substance of the tweet. Some are meant for his base and some are sent out on a fishing line, luring those prone to hysterics. I’ve given up on the notion that he’ll abandon Twitter completely, I’m simply hoping for less volume at this point. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

According to Chrispy political theory, Maxine Waters is a godsend to the left because she outrages the right so much.  They would be better off just ignoring her.

[David Dennison 18854]

5 minutes ago, Chrispy said:

I believe that depends entirely on the substance of the tweet. Some are meant for his base and some are sent out on a fishing line, luring those prone to hysterics. I’ve given up on the notion that he’ll abandon Twitter completely, I’m simply hoping for less volume at this point. 

You'll get your wish. I'm thinking 2021.

[Chrispy 132]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

According to Chrispy political theory, Maxine Waters is a godsend to the left because she outrages the right so much.  They would be better off just ignoring her.

I don’t find the two situations analogous, we were discussing the absurdity of Twitter. 

[atomheartbevo 89654]

39 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Hyphenated names have never been a problem.  The bigger problem is people who use their first and middle names.  I think David Allan Coe is the only one who isn't a serial killer.

You’ve never listened to his music, have you?

[atomheartbevo 89654]

44 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

lulz what an idiotic take. Trump is a megalomaniacal narcissist. Every time he tweets 100,000 Trumpkins like the tweet. He's not going to stop even if nobody who hates him ever reads another tweet.

More like 10,000 Trumpkins and 90,000 bots.  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You’ve never listened to his music, have you?

seriously.  i liked him when I knew, like, one of his songs.  once you get to about song number two you have to look over your shoulder before you play it.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

29 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You’ve never listened to his music, have you?

I didn't say that he is a good guy or isn't racist.  He just ain't a serial killer.  The bar is very low for guys that go by their full name.

[atomheartbevo 89654]

8 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I didn't say that he is a good guy or isn't racist.  He just ain't a serial killer.  The bar is very low for guys that go by their full name.

He sings about sperm-soaked pillows.

[Chad Fuck 17671]

Willis Alan Ramsey sends a hearty "Fuck You!"

 

Edited June 27, 2018 by Chad Fuck

[Tom 2959]

2 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

This kind of says more about you, and the Democrat party in general than it does her.  I would call wanting to abolish ICE a fairly radical proposition.

 

Republicans hate bloated government until they don't hate bloated government.  ICE is a redundant agency.  How did we ever survive prior to 2002?  

ICE is to U.S. Customs and Border Protection what a Space Force is to NASA.  Theres nothing radical about eliminating it.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

Republicans want to abolish several longstanding cabinet agencies, yet abolishing ICE is radical.  Smh. 

[Js1 85313]

Dumbasses also keep saying "people who want to abolish ICE are for open borders!" which makes zero sense, because ICE is not our Border enforcement agency.  Sorry, Boarder Enforcement.  That's CBP.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

More DNC fuckery...A friend of mine sent me this on condition of anonymity for his upstate candidate brother:

 

When my brother first announced his candidacy for Congress, a bunch of New York state Democratic Party honchos asked to meet with him in Albany. So he traveled out there. One of them was Sam Hoyt, Who is one of Andrew Cuomo’s top advisers, and is something of a poor man’s Anthony Weiner: he’s been fired or forced to resign from multiple government positions, because it is persistent habit of sleeping with interns.

Another one was Representative Crowley.

Everything was very nice. They told [redacted] he had a “tremendous future in the party,” and then Crowley asked if he could speak to [redacted] in private for a few moments. He told [redacted], “Kid, you don’t have a prayer. We aren't giving you a dime. We don’t support your candidacy.”

[Redacted] told him he’s running anyway, and that he would find a way to win. Crowley told him that he was going to get destroyed. Then he said, “And you’re going to learn that you can’t do anything in this state without my say so.”

Last night, after the returns were in, [redacted] sent Crowley a text message: “suck it, Crowley.“

At 8 o’clock this morning, he received a series of impassioned phone calls from democratic bigwigs excoriating him for “rubbing salt in Joe’s wounds.”

[Foosters 17850]

haha

 

that's great

[Mojo Hand 4580]

6 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

More DNC fuckery...A friend of mine sent me this on condition of anonymity for his upstate candidate brother:

 

When my brother first announced his candidacy for Congress, a bunch of New York state Democratic Party honchos asked to meet with him in Albany. So he traveled out there. One of them was Sam Hoyt, Who is one of Andrew Cuomo’s top advisers, and is something of a poor man’s Anthony Weiner: he’s been fired or forced to resign from multiple government positions, because it is persistent habit of sleeping with interns.

Another one was Representative Crowley.

Everything was very nice. They told [redacted] he had a “tremendous future in the party,” and then Crowley asked if he could speak to [redacted] in private for a few moments. He told [redacted], “Kid, you don’t have a prayer. We aren't giving you a dime. We don’t support your candidacy.”

[Redacted] told him he’s running anyway, and that he would find a way to win. Crowley told him that he was going to get destroyed. Then he said, “And you’re going to learn that you can’t do anything in this state without my say so.”

Last night, after the returns were in, [redacted] sent Crowley a text message: “suck it, Crowley.“

At 8 o’clock this morning, he received a series of impassioned phone calls from democratic bigwigs excoriating him for “rubbing salt in Joe’s wounds.”

Did your friend's brother win his race? 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

“Open Borders” is a great branding catch all that has been well saturated in the right wing echo chambers to character assassinate any opposition to the hardline/cruel approach to immigration.

I’m 95% confident Bannon/Cambridge Analytica was a big part of seeding this tactic several years ago.

[Brew 3049]

3 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 The cartoon is also baffling to me substantively. Is there a single piece of data anywhere that supports the thought that there is going to be a red wave?  Seems the only indications range from blue wave to hold serve. 

Were there any data points at this point 2 years ago giving dipshit a chance of winning either? He has mastered the art of the “work” on a level that even Vince McMahon would be proud of.

[Js1 85313]

There was a very large data point that it is incredibly hard to win 3 presidential elections in a row for the same party.

2014 was a data point that showed white working class voters were already moving away from Democrats

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

3 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

This kind of says more about you, and the Democrat party in general than it does her.  I would call wanting to abolish ICE a fairly radical proposition.

any more or less radical than wanting to dismantle the EPA... or the Dept. of Education.... or the Justice Department.... or the FBI..... or??? asking for a friend, who is me. I'm awesome.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

7 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Did your friend's brother win his race? 

He was unopposed in the primary, which makes it all the stranger. He is Bernie-ish, though, and I think he did an end run around them to get on the ballot and lock down the race. 

[Mojo Hand 4580]

4 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

He was unopposed in the primary, which makes it all the stranger. He is Bernie-ish, though, and I think he did an end run around them to get on the ballot and lock down the race. 

Weird that Crowley would make an enemy of him for no reason.   And it's not an R district?   That is, he's likely to win in November?   Good for him, and fuck Crowley. 

[kopp0e 1135]

12 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

The bigger news there is that Arkansas annexed Missouri. 

My question is, how will this passage of SQ 788 for basically recreational/ medical cannabis affect law enforcement in the state of Texas along the state line in cities as:

Texoma/ Shamrock/ Vernon/ Wichita Falls/Gainesville/ Sherman/ Paris ect., will patrols pick up of people crossing into the state from Oklahoma..? (particularly Texoma)

[FondrenRoad 4378]

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dumbasses also keep saying "people who want to abolish ICE are for open borders!" which makes zero sense, because ICE is not our Border enforcement agency.  Sorry, Boarder Enforcement.  That's CBP.

All domestic federal law enforcement should fall under the FBI.  The rest should all be shuttered.  This includes pseudo LEO wings of agencies like the EPA.  The FBI should be the only federal agency with the authority to make arrests.

Edited June 27, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Fozzz 152]

I wish this country was like how it is described by the NRA.

 

 

[Tuco 5076]

7 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Weird that Crowley would make an enemy of him for no reason.   And it's not an R district?   That is, he's likely to win in November?   Good for him, and fuck Crowley. 

The biggest mistake much of the Democratic "establishment" makes is thinking this movement is mainly in support of them.  The political involvement is mostly about Trump, but some of it is a recognition of party dysfunction and their inability to defeat Trump.  I'm not a Berniecrat and I think much of the criticism of the DNC handling of Bernie is overblown, but the arrogance and complacency has certainly been noticed.  Personally, I'm conflicted.  I respect the fact that the old guard was fighting the fight while I was playing video games.  But, at the same time, that doesn't make them right.  Everything, including their leadership, needs to be challenged so we can put good people in office.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

14 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Weird that Crowley would make an enemy of him for no reason.   And it's not an R district?   That is, he's likely to win in November?   Good for him, and fuck Crowley. 

It's a gerrymandered R district and his opponent is a sleazeball Tea Party Trumpkin. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

30 minutes ago, Brew said:

Were there any data points at this point 2 years ago giving dipshit a chance of winning either? He has mastered the art of the “work” on a level that even Vince McMahon would be proud of.

That election is going to haunt people that want to have evidence based discussions for a long time.  Underdog won once, now polls are worthless. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

21 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The biggest mistake much of the Democratic "establishment" makes is thinking this movement is mainly in support of them.  The political involvement is mostly about Trump, but some of it is a recognition of party dysfunction and their inability to defeat Trump.  I'm not a Berniecrat and I think much of the criticism of the DNC handling of Bernie is overblown, but the arrogance and complacency has certainly been noticed.  Personally, I'm conflicted.  I respect the fact that the old guard was fighting the fight while I was playing video games.  But, at the same time, that doesn't make them right.  Everything, including their leadership, needs to be challenged so we can put good people in office.

It's like the old joke about consultants...If you can't be a part of the solution, there's good money to be made by prolonging the problem. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

29 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The biggest mistake much of the Democratic "establishment" makes is thinking this movement is mainly in support of them.  The political involvement is mostly about Trump, but some of it is a recognition of party dysfunction and their inability to defeat Trump.  I'm not a Berniecrat and I think much of the criticism of the DNC handling of Bernie is overblown, but the arrogance and complacency has certainly been noticed.  Personally, I'm conflicted.  I respect the fact that the old guard was fighting the fight while I was playing video games.  But, at the same time, that doesn't make them right.  Everything, including their leadership, needs to be challenged so we can put good people in office.

Crowley, for sure, was fighting the fight.  Was he ineffective while in a minority position?  Sure.  Did he deal with moderate Dems and some moderate Pubs? Sure.  But, he was always one of the more liberal Dems and he became "establishment" just by number of terms.

Here's the problem for O-C and for other Bernie purists.  There simply are never going to be enough +29 Dem districts to have a Bernie-only wave with no moderate Dem involvement.  You have to trade.  You have to vote for shit like the ACA when single payer doesn't have the votes to get on the table.  You have to vote for the best immigration deal you can get even if you can't get your perfect one.  Otherwise, you're just a "no" vote who may even allow worse GOP legislation to slip through.  In otherwords, you end up "establishment" no matter what you do.  Bernie, himself, trades all the time.  He backed Clinton.  He backs moderate Dem legislation while vocally preferring something more liberal.  He is in DC and in the rest of the country more than he is in his home state.  He is as "establishment" as the rest of them.

And for her specifically, she's 28.  So after she serves 2 or 3 terms, spends more time in DC than in NYC, travels the country stumping for leftist Democrats when they run, and votes yes on some Dem and middle legislation, then what?  She actually doesn't have the education or work experience to move to a bureaucratic position.  So does she try to run for Senate?  Does she bow out completely in 3 terms and support a young newcomer before she becomes Crowley herself?  Or does she try to spend the next 40 years representing NY's 14th?  My money is on the last.

Also, somebody needs to start giving a fuck about privacy.  Its arguably more important in the long term than the new left's agenda.  I won't hold my breath that someone like O-C will be privacy's champion. She's far more likely to be its complete undoing.

Edited June 27, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Kind of a backwards thought, but it would benefit Democrats to have the new justice seated before the midterms, right?

"Vote for me or the Democrats will prevent Trump from nominating a Conservative Justice" would be a pretty effective Republican midterm slogan, regardless  of whether or not it is based in reality.

I ask because I'm seeing a lot of Democrats already calling on Schumer to pull a McConnell (even though he can't) and I just don't see the benefit.  What am I missing?

Edited June 27, 2018 by Chuckie Finster

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

Disconcerting that someone can win/lose a House seat with approx 30K people voting.  But that can happen when a district is solidly either Right or Left.  It would seem that Crowley could launch a write-in campaign to win the general if he was willing to risk splitting the Dem vote and letting a Rep in.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Kind of a backwards thought, but it would benefit Democrats to have the new justice seated before the midterms, right?

"Vote for me or the Democrats will prevent Trump from nominating a Conservative Justice" would be a pretty effective Republican midterm slogan, regardless  of whether or not it is based in reality.

I ask because I'm seeing a lot of Democrats already calling on Schumer to pull a McConnell (even though he can't) and I just don't see the benefit.  What am I missing?

No way.  The GOP is in a race to the bottom and against time right now.  Even if the GOP maintained a Senate majority after the election, the Dems still benefit because they'd end up with a vetted new justice who may be conservative, but at least is a skilled jurist, like Gorsuch.

Instead, a pressured Trump and GOP are going to ram through someone within 1 week of Kennedy's retirement with almost no vetting whatsoever.  And it could be anyone DJT wants.  The GOP Senate is going to rubber stamp it.  For this one, he doesn't need to go find a Gorsuch.  He could just put DJT Jr in if he wanted to.

[Js1 85313]

Harriet Miers on line 1.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

4 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

No way.  The GOP is in a race to the bottom and against time right now.  Even if the GOP maintained a Senate majority after the election, the Dems still benefit because they'd end up with a vetted new justice who may be conservative, but at least is a skilled jurist, like Gorsuch.

 Instead, a pressured Trump and GOP are going to ram through someone within 1 week of Kennedy's retirement with almost no vetting whatsoever.  And it could be anyone DJT wants.  The GOP Senate is going to rubber stamp it.  For this one, he doesn't need to go find a Gorsuch.  He could just put DJT Jr in if he wanted to.

Why are you so confident in this?

And either way, there's going to be a new Justice that will vote against the left's wishes 95 to 99% of the time.  But it one scenario, you have a motivated Republican electorate that could impact Senate and House races as well.  And yes, Gorsuch is a qualified judge, but if you look at the Court's decisions this year, it's not like Gorsuch voted differently on any of them than someone like Judge Jeanine would have.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Disconcerting that someone can win/lose a House seat with approx 30K people voting.  But that can happen when a district is solidly either Right or Left.  It would seem that Crowley could launch a write-in campaign to win the general if he was willing to risk splitting the Dem vote and letting a Rep in.

The Pub has 0 chance although there are a couple small neighborhoods that lean Trump's way.  If Crowley ran as an I, he'd probably peel off most if not all of those R voters from the Pub since he has both a chance and the characteristics they like.  Crowley is/was also more popular with older minority voters than O-C.  He just didn't bother to get them out to vote.  If he had, he would have probably won.  O-C has the young vote more-or-less locked down.

I don't see that happening though.  He conceded graciously and is a party man anyway. 

[kevwun 15774]

6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Why are you so confident in this?

And either way, there's going to be a new Justice that will vote against the left's wishes 95 to 99% of the time.  But it one scenario, you have a motivated Republican electorate that could impact Senate and House races as well.  And yes, Gorsuch is a qualified judge, but if you look at the Court's decisions this year, it's not like Gorsuch voted differently on any of them than someone like Judge Jeanine would have. 

We'll probably get to compare their votes shortly.

Edited June 27, 2018 by kevwun

[Js1 85313]

3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

The Pub has 0 chance although there are a couple small neighborhoods that lean Trump's way.  If Crowley ran as an I, he'd probably peel off most if not all of those R voters from the Pub since he has both a chance and the characteristics they like.  Crowley is/was also more popular with older minority voters than O-C.  He just didn't bother to get them out to vote.  If he had, he would have probably won.  O-C has the young vote more-or-less locked down.

I don't see that happening though.  He conceded graciously and is a party man anyway. 

Yeah Crowley conceded graciously.  Pulled out his guitar and dedicated "Born to Run" To O-C.