2018 - Elections and Trends

[Js1 85313]

8 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Why are you so confident in this?

And either way, there's going to be a new Justice that will vote against the left's wishes 95 to 99% of the time.  But it one scenario, you have a motivated Republican electorate that could impact Senate and House races as well.  And yes, Gorsuch is a qualified judge, but if you look at the Court's decisions this year, it's not like Gorsuch voted differently on any of them than someone like Judge Jeanine would have.

It's lose-lose.

You wait, you motivate the GOP to show up.

You do it now, you might get the GOP voters to shoot their wad early, but you also put Nelson, Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill in very awkward places 4 months from an election.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

7 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Why are you so confident in this?

And either way, there's going to be a new Justice that will vote against the left's wishes 95 to 99% of the time.  But it one scenario, you have a motivated Republican electorate that could impact Senate and House races as well.  And yes, Gorsuch is a qualified judge, but if you look at the Court's decisions this year, it's not like Gorsuch voted differently on any of them than someone like Judge Jeanine would have.

I have a feeling that someone will be nominated and confirmed who you will wish was as qualified as Judge Jeanine.  Think a young ideologue with no legal background and pure hatred for the court system.  Someone who may have attended a fine university like Duke, but ultimately only got a bachelor's degree in Poly Sci while hating everything the university stands for.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

10 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I have a feeling that someone will be nominated and confirmed who you will wish was as qualified as Judge Jeanine.  Think a young ideologue with no legal background and pure hatred for the court system.  Someone who may have attended a fine university like Duke, but ultimately only got a bachelor's degree in Poly Sci while hating everything the university stands for.

Color me crazy, but nominating a Stephen Miller before the midterms would be Trump giving Nelson, Manchin, etc. a "Get Out of Jail Free" Card.  They can justifiably point to the quality of the nominee while still sticking to party lines.  The only way to truly force their hands would be to nominate a legitimate candidate, which gets us back to my original question.

I agree it's lose-lose, but once you get past the realization that there is nothing that can realistically be done to stop this next appointment from being a conservative (thanks Anthony!) I think the "a few Democratic Senators just voted for a Conservative Justive" map is better for Democrats than a "VOTE REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRATS WILL NEVER AGAIN ALLOW ANOTHER CONSERVATIVE JUSTICE!!!!" one.

Edited June 27, 2018 by Chuckie Finster

[FondrenRoad 4378]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Color me crazy, but nominating a Stephen Miller before the midterms would be Trump giving Nelson, Manchin, etc. a "Get Out of Jail Free" Card.  They can justifiably point to the quality of the nominee while still sticking to party lines.  The only way to truly force their hands would be to nominate a legitimate candidate, which gets us back to my original question.

He'd be confirmed before the midterms.  This one is going super nuclear no matter who the nominee is.  50 Senators plus Pence is all they need.

Miller was hyperbole though.  He wouldn't even get 50 GOP senators to confirm him.  Whoever Trump picks, however, will be confirmed prior to the election with little to no vetting and without the need for a few token red-state Dem votes.  Manchin and Nelson can read the tea leaves and cast their irrelevant votes whichever way they feel works best for them.  The GOP simply won't take a chance on the Dems taking the Senate even if Trump miraculously picks a qualified moderate.

[David Dennison 18854]

5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

He'd be confirmed before the midterms.  This one is going super nuclear no matter who the nominee is.  50 Senators plus Pence is all they need.

Miller was hyperbole though.  He wouldn't even get 50 GOP senators to confirm him.  Whoever Trump picks, however, will be confirmed prior to the election with little to no vetting and without the need for a few token red-state Dem votes.  Manchin and Nelson can read the tea leaves and cast their irrelevant votes whichever way they feel works best for them.  The GOP simply won't take a chance on the Dems taking the Senate even if Trump miraculously picks a qualified moderate.

But the Democrats won't allow a single piece of legislation to pass if there is a vote before the election.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

10 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

He'd be confirmed before the midterms.  This one is going super nuclear no matter who the nominee is.  50 Senators plus Pence is all they need.

Miller was hyperbole though.  He wouldn't even get 50 GOP senators to confirm him.  Whoever Trump picks, however, will be confirmed prior to the election with little to no vetting and without the need for a few token red-state Dem votes.  Manchin and Nelson can read the tea leaves and cast their irrelevant votes whichever way they feel works best for them.  The GOP simply won't take a chance on the Dems taking the Senate even if Trump miraculously picks a qualified moderate.

Given that McConnell can hold a vote after the election if Dems take the Senate, what is the risk for him in waiting? 

[Tuco 5076]

I think the Senate Republicans care more about their jobs than the future of the court.  I think Republicans, particularly the religious conservatives, follow court appointments more than Democrats.  I think the Senate need something, anything, to campaign on.  If they confirm before the midterms, they have, what?  Tax reform?  Health care reform?  The Supreme Court is something they have every reason to hold on until the midterms.  Even if the Dems win a slim majority in the Senate, and the Pubs couldn't push through someone in the lame duck sessions, it's still going to be a Trump (or Pence) nominee.    

Edited June 27, 2018 by Tuco

[Anastasis 23469]

Given that McConnell can hold a vote after the election if Dems take the Senate, what is the risk for him in waiting? 

I feel like I am missing something here.

[Js1 85313]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

I feel like I am missing something here.

 

LOL yeah. if the Dems take the Senate, McConnell can't do jack shit.

Unless he rams through a vote in late November/December.

Edited June 27, 2018 by Js1

[lemonlime 5503]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LOL yeah. if the Dems take the Senate, McConnell can't do jack shit.

I'm assuming he meant McConnell could hold the vote sometime in late November or early December.   After using the vacancy as a campaign issue, and then ramming it through before Dem control of the Senate in January.

[TX Panic 9]

Colorado Governor Primary Interesting Facts 

First time active unaffiliated registered voters could vote in a  primary in CO. R and D ballot mailed to all of them, got to choose one if they wanted to vote.

Democratic Governor primary had 100,000+ more voters in their primary than the Republicans, but they only have 15,000 more registered voters as of the end of May.

24% of all ballots cast came from unaffiliated voters with 51,000+  more to Democratic ballots than GOP-voting unaffiliated voterss , as of 7 p.m. Tuesday

Across the state, Democratic women outnumbered their male counterparts by 83,000

 

 

Edited June 27, 2018 by TX Panic

[Anastasis 23469]

17 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I'm assuming he meant McConnell could hold the vote sometime in late November or early December.   After using the vacancy as a campaign issue, and then ramming it through before Dem control of the Senate in January.

That would make sense. 

[Pancho 44759]

 

[Anastasis 23469]

The times we live in. Is there any doubt that the last 24 months have provided the greatest political theatre in recent American history. 

[kevwun 15774]

If the theater specializes in German scheisse porn, maybe.  I don't find any of it amusing.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The times we live in. Is there any doubt that the last 24 months have provided the greatest political theatre in recent American history. 

I don’t think there’s been any point in my life when I’ve learned so much.  

It’s probably the most fascinating time in US history.

But make no mistake, these are the dark times.

Edited June 27, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

Lest we forget this piece of shit: 

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/evkeza/neo-nazi-who-killed-heather-heyer-in-charlottesville-was-just-charged-with-29-hate-crimes

[FondrenRoad 4378]

25 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I'm assuming he meant McConnell could hold the vote sometime in late November or early December.   After using the vacancy as a campaign issue, and then ramming it through before Dem control of the Senate in January.

Its funny that y'all think McConnell has any qualms at all about being a hypocrite.  The excuses are already plain as day.

"It was different then.  Obama had nominated a Justice who would have us become the Soviet Union.  While we had a brief period of respite, the deep state is rampant and communists who trained directly under Castro are winning elections in blue states.  By appointing this justice, we still have a chance to make America great again."

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Very fine people

[Mojo Hand 4580]

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LOL yeah. if the Dems take the Senate, McConnell can't do jack shit.

Unless he rams through a vote in late November/December.

Right.  He has the Senate until the end of the year no matter what.  What stops him from confirming a week or two after the elections?  

[Anastasis 23469]

Right.  He has the Senate until the end of the year no matter what.  What stops him from confirming a week or two after the elections?  

Youre right that this might be the smart political play. Use another scotus to bring out the base. Tell them to swallow their pride because a lifetime appointment and maybe one more is on the line. Dangle the hopeless prize of overturning roe. They don’t have to turn out the gop everywhere. They only have to turn out the gop in the states that they are already have an advantage. Kennedy kicked the midterms up to 11.

[idahorn 26]

The "Blue Wave" is turning into a "blue drip."  A quote from a radio guy.  I was going to call it porphyria, but the symptom for that is purple urine, and this won't be purple, but the chemical composition is about the same.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

Deleted

Edited June 27, 2018 by MaybeACoordinator
picfail

[Js1 85313]

23 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Right.  He has the Senate until the end of the year no matter what.  What stops him from confirming a week or two after the elections?  

This all reads to me like McConnell would rather put red-state Senate Democrats in a hard place pre-Midterm than risk losing the majority.

This dude already went all-in with a jack-four off suite with one SCOTUS seat.  Do you really test your luck?

Edited June 27, 2018 by Js1

[David Dennison 18854]

8 minutes ago, idahorn said:

The "Blue Wave" is turning into a "blue drip."  A quote from a radio guy.  I was going to call it porphyria, but the symptom for that is purple urine, and this won't be purple, but the chemical composition is about the same.

No, it isn't. It's going to be bigger than anyone expects. Republicans are going to get throttled and they know it.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This all reads to me like McConnell would rather put red-state Senate Democrats in a hard place pre-Midterm than risk losing the majority.

Don’t think the Senate races are a factor in this calculation.  

McConnell is minimizing risk by pushing the Justice through before the midterms.  Nothing is guaranteed after. Get your guy on the bench ASAP.

 

[Js1 85313]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Don’t think the Senate races are a factor in this calculation.  

McConnell is minimizing risk by pushing the Justice through before the midterms.  Nothing is guaranteed after. Get your guy on the bench ASAP.

 

I think it's a small factor. Get the guy on the bench ASAP and put vulnerable incumbents in a hard place and try to pad your majority on a friendly map.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think it's a small factor. Get the guy on the bench ASAP and put vulnerable incumbents in a hard place and try to pad your majority on a friendly map.

It’s a convenient by-product that works to his political advantage no doubt 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

I think the Senate Republicans care more about their jobs than the future of the court.  

If they did, they would be going hard in the paint on the family separation stuff. Keep in mind that Huckabeef basically admitted this week that they would be separating more families going forward. 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

36 minutes ago, idahorn said:

The "Blue Wave" is turning into a "blue drip."  A quote from a radio guy.  I was going to call it porphyria, but the symptom for that is purple urine, and this won't be purple, but the chemical composition is about the same.

The fucking Okies signed off on medicinal marijuana.  

The times they are a changing or something.  Then again, Mobilehoma was Dem up until recently, even sooner than Texas was. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

If McConnell tried to ram a SCOTUS confirmation during a lame duck session (assuming Dems are getting control), I think either other republicans would stop him because that would close the govt down for the next 2 years.  Trump wouldn't be able to get asst deputy to the deputy ambassador to albania confirmed for the remainder of his term.  and I would cheer the Dems on for that.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If McConnell tried to ram a SCOTUS confirmation during a lame duck session (assuming Dems are getting control), I think either other republicans would stop him because that would close the govt down for the next 2 years.  Trump wouldn't be able to get asst deputy to the deputy ambassador to albania confirmed for the remainder of his term.  and I would cheer the Dems on for that.

Dems should already do that based on Garland.  And if they don't, a lame duck confirmation won't give them the balls they lack. 

[Tuco 5076]

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If they did, they would be going hard in the paint on the family separation stuff. Keep in mind that Huckabeef basically admitted this week that they would be separating more families going forward. 

 The cowardice on family separation is because they do not want to alienate the anti-immigrant faction.  They are trying to show compassion, without taking an actual position or standing up to Trump.  It's hard work to keep the racists in their camp while trying not to appear racist. 

[Pods 7552]

Other Republicans aren't stopping McConnell from doing shit, ESPECIALLY from approving a conservative to the Supreme Court. They'll approve of it in an emergency midnight session the night before the new Senate members were sworn in if that's what it takes.  

No GOP will stand up to McConnell, except Trump. No one will stand up to Trump. 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 The cowardice on family separation is because they do not want to alienate the anti-immigrant faction.  They are trying to show compassion, without taking an actual position or standing up to Trump.  It's hard work to keep the racists in their camp while trying not to appear racist. 

It’s going to cost them among women, as well as motivating the left to vote.  Donnie doesn’t care, because somehow Miller is able to whisper the right things to him, even while giving him a blumpkin.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

7 minutes ago, Pods said:

Other Republicans aren't stopping McConnell from doing shit, ESPECIALLY from approving a conservative to the Supreme Court. They'll approve of it in an emergency midnight session the night before the new Senate members were sworn in if that's what it takes.  

No GOP will stand up to McConnell, except Trump. No one will stand up to Trump. 

Other GOP Senators won't stand up against the Senate Leader which just happens to be McConnell.  If the GOP loses the Senate, the other Senators will quickly blame McConnell.   Assuming he is still around for a future GOP majority, it won't be McConnell as the Leader.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s going to cost them among women, as well as motivating the left to vote.  Donnie doesn’t care, because somehow Miller is able to whisper the right things to him, even while giving him a blumpkin.

Sounds like a blue wave and you will be happy. Congrats. 

[Tuco 5076]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s going to cost them among women, as well as motivating the left to vote.  Donnie doesn’t care, because somehow Miller is able to whisper the right things to him, even while giving him a blumpkin.

We are more than 120 days out from the election.  If the child detention thing gets resolved in the next 30 days, remaining quiet on the issue will have little lasting effect.  But the Trumpkins remember those who criticize their orange god. While I don't hold the Republican Congressmen in high esteem, I don't believe this (the shit at the border) is what they really want.  But, they are cowards, they have done the political calculation, and have decided that watered down statements on their concern for the children is all they can possibly muster at this point.  They would rather talk about anything else, given the opportunity. 

[EMAWesome 101]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

I feel like I am missing something here.

 

Probably the concept of the Democrats taking the Senate.  About as likely as Ted Nugent being elected to the Berkeley city council.

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

Arizona going blue?

The spread in 2016 was just 48.7 Dotard to 45.1 HRC.

[atomheartbevo 89652]

4 hours ago, Tuco said:

We are more than 120 days out from the election.  If the child detention thing gets resolved in the next 30 days, remaining quiet on the issue will have little lasting effect.  But the Trumpkins remember those who criticize their orange god. While I don't hold the Republican Congressmen in high esteem, I don't believe this (the shit at the border) is what they really want.  But, they are cowards, they have done the political calculation, and have decided that watered down statements on their concern for the children is all they can possibly muster at this point.  They would rather talk about anything else, given the opportunity. 

It’s not going to be resolved.  Huckabeef put out the word this week that they will soon be hitting capacity limits for families, and going back to separations.   They are extremely unorganized and quite a few of those kids already in camps are going to be hard to find.

Plus a judge gave Donnie a deadline.  Donnie doesn’t like activist judges. 

Donne is going to continue making this an issue.  He can’t help himself.  He was embarrassed to have to change his policy as it is. 

[kopp0e 1135]

8 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

Republicans want to abolish several longstanding cabinet agencies, yet abolishing ICE is radical.  Smh. 

Let's not imagine if there was a case where one of either ICE or DHS had to be shut down, we know it would not be an "easy button decision" for many within the party...

[Skyline 325]

58 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s not going to be resolved.  Huckabeef put out the word this week that they will soon be hitting capacity limits for families, and going back to separations.   They are extremely unorganized and quite a few of those kids already in camps are going to be hard to find.

Plus a judge gave Donnie a deadline.  Donnie doesn’t like activist judges. 

Donne is going to continue making this an issue.  He can’t help himself.  He was embarrassed to have to change his policy as it is. 

With the Kennedy retirement, Donald just got a reset button should he want it. 

[Skyline 325]

I'm not sure where else to put this, but it was a fascinating bit of polling: 

Democrats Are Wrong About Republicans. Republicans Are Wrong About Democrats

 

Really goes to show how wide the chasm is when it comes to guessing the other party's demographics. 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

13 minutes ago, Skyline said:

With the Kennedy retirement, Donald just got a reset button should he want it. 

I have faith that Trump will say something on twitter in the next few days that’s incredibly fucking stupid, that will overshadow Kennedy.  

Trump can’t help himself.  It’s who he is. 

[Skyline 325]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I have faith that Trump will say something on twitter in the next few days that’s incredibly fucking stupid, that will overshadow Kennedy.  

Trump can’t help himself.  It’s who he is. 

That's been the hallmark of Trump's run in politics. He doesn't deal with any controversy, he just creates a new one and jumps to that. 

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

9 hours ago, Skyline said:

I'm not sure where else to put this, but it was a fascinating bit of polling: 

Democrats Are Wrong About Republicans. Republicans Are Wrong About Democrats

 

Really goes to show how wide the chasm is when it comes to guessing the other party's demographics. 

It should be noted that the Democrats (while not accurate) are a lot more accurate than the Repubs in how they see the other party.  The big miss is in the over $250K.  (They underestimate how many downscale whites are Republican.)  Other than that, they weren't far off.  It's better than Republicans thinking atheists and blacks make up 40% of the Democratic Party despite both groups being around 10% of the total population.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

9 hours ago, Skyline said:

I'm not sure where else to put this, but it was a fascinating bit of polling: 

Democrats Are Wrong About Republicans. Republicans Are Wrong About Democrats

 

Really goes to show how wide the chasm is when it comes to guessing the other party's demographics. 

This is also a good indicator of how the media/politicians have warped public perception in how they view the other party.

Edited June 28, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[bad_teammate 13195]

9 hours ago, Skyline said:

I'm not sure where else to put this, but it was a fascinating bit of polling: 

Democrats Are Wrong About Republicans. Republicans Are Wrong About Democrats

 

Really goes to show how wide the chasm is when it comes to guessing the other party's demographics. 

It makes sense. Democrats are far more urban and urban Repubs are generally far more monied than rural Repubs. Rich Republicans are what the Dems see.

And the Republicans watch FOX, so Dems are all gay, black, atheist union workers.

Quote

This is also a good indicator of how the media/politicians have warped public perception in how they view the other party.

True of the Republican side, but the Democrat side is almost dead on for religiosity and region. They're way off on income, but (as said above) that's a function of their real-life exposure.

Edited June 28, 2018 by bad_teammate