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2018 - Elections and Trends


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6 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Triggered much? Just pointing out that making a definitive statement about future election results based off polls 4 months before an election is a bit aggressive. Especially given the current political environment that seems to be getting increasingly more volatile.

Well, other than the fact that you didn't state THAT point until just now, sure.  Move the goalposts much?

Logic and facts -- the most potent allergens to a Trumpkin.

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33 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

If polls are so unreliable and old polls worthless, why do Trump supporters keep flogging that April poll showing a dip in support for Dems by millennials?  It was literally posted again today on another thread. 

Polls and Trump supporters...it’s  like that guy with the 6-inch dick who finds a poll from 20 years ago that says 6-inch dicks are a decent size and not small.  They will keep on flogging that poll until they find s newer one that supports their beliefs.

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2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

This is going to sound crazy but I think we need a violent swing to the left first before we work our way to the pragmatic middle.  

Trumpism and the fence sitting corporate democrats need to be flushed out with new blood.  A strong backlash from the youthful idealistic left should inspire the right to alter their approach, away from Trumpism and more towards traditional conservatism.  

This is why I’ve said it’s going to take 20 years recover from the shit we’re in now.  The more significant the gains in the short term from the left, the closer we become to a long term pragmatic center without Trumpism.

I definitely think the pendulum swings the other way and that an over correction left is likely.  I don’t think it likely the current right simply accepts it, says “whoops, our bad, let’s return to win-win centrist civility” and we all live happily ever after.  Or if they do, I think the left tells them to STFU, go sit in the back of the bus.

If you are some combination of male, white, Christian or wealthy and take umbrage to others pulling up a chair to the table of wealth and power, now is your final stand.  You find a way to preserve the existing order during Trump’s presidency or it will be forever gone.  <Cercei>You win or you die.</Cercei>

I think a last chance to break out of this and move forward peaceably will be for the dems to take control and then extend an olive branch to the right.  Pretty long odds on that, since it requires the dems to gain a preponderance of power, be in a forgiving mood when they do and for members of the right to accept a lesser slice of the pie they’ve fattened themselves on over the last 250 years.

Jebus, I’m starting to think Brisket’s apocalypse is the most likely outcome.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Goredho said:

I definitely think the pendulum swings the other way and that an over correction left is likely.  I don’t think it likely the current right simply accepts it, says “whoops, our bad, let’s return to win-win centrist civility” and we all live happily ever after.  Or if they do, I think the left tells them to STFU, go sit in the back of the bus.

If you are some combination of male, white, Christian or wealthy and take umbrage to others pulling up a chair to the table of wealth and power, now is your final stand.  You find a way to preserve the existing order during Trump’s presidency or it will be forever gone.  <Cercei>You win or you die.</Cercei>

I think a last chance to break out of this and move forward peaceably will be for the dems to take control and then extend an olive branch to the right.  Pretty long odds on that, since it requires the dems to gain a preponderance of power, be in a forgiving mood when they do and for members of the right to accept a lesser slice of the pie they’ve fattened themselves on over the last 250 years.

Jebus, I’m starting to think Brisket’s apocalypse is the most likely outcome.

Barack Obama tried that. This is the result.

We aren't doing that again.

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5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Barack Obama tried that. This is the result.

We aren't doing that again.

Fair point, and why it’s more than likely that America winds up becoming the communist or fascist caricature that half the populace fears the other half is driving for.

Edited by Goredho
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47 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Polls and Trump supporters...it’s  like that guy with the 6-inch dick who finds a poll from 20 years ago that says 6-inch dicks are a decent size and not small.  They will keep on flogging that poll until they find s newer one that supports their beliefs.

What’s wrong with 6 inch dicks? Asking for myself.

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32 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I definitely think the pendulum swings the other way and that an over correction left is likely.  I don’t think it likely the current right simply accepts it, says “whoops, our bad, let’s return to win-win centrist civility” and we all live happily ever after.  Or if they do, I think the left tells them to STFU, go sit in the back of the bus.

If you are some combination of male, white, Christian or wealthy and take umbrage to others pulling up a chair to the table of wealth and power, now is your final stand.  You find a way to preserve the existing order during Trump’s presidency or it will be forever gone.  <Cercei>You win or you die.</Cercei>

I think a last chance to break out of this and move forward peaceably will be for the dems to take control and then extend an olive branch to the right.  Pretty long odds on that, since it requires the dems to gain a preponderance of power, be in a forgiving mood when they do and for members of the right to accept a lesser slice of the pie they’ve fattened themselves on over the last 250 years.

Jebus, I’m starting to think Brisket’s apocalypse is the most likely outcome.

 

 

Trumpism must be stamped out and marginalized.

I was praying this would come from the conservative right but they have forsaken their high ground and tossed in their lot with Trump for the most part.  

Sadly, a forceful repudiation from the left is the only way now.  There will be no olive branches.  It’s going to get much worse before it gets better.

Or, Trumpism wins and we will destroy ourselves completely.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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1 hour ago, Goredho said:

I definitely think the pendulum swings the other way and that an over correction left is likely.  I don’t think it likely the current right simply accepts it, says “whoops, our bad, let’s return to win-win centrist civility” and we all live happily ever after.  Or if they do, I think the left tells them to STFU, go sit in the back of the bus.

If you are some combination of male, white, Christian or wealthy and take umbrage to others pulling up a chair to the table of wealth and power, now is your final stand.  You find a way to preserve the existing order during Trump’s presidency or it will be forever gone.  <Cercei>You win or you die.</Cercei>

I think a last chance to break out of this and move forward peaceably will be for the dems to take control and then extend an olive branch to the right.  Pretty long odds on that, since it requires the dems to gain a preponderance of power, be in a forgiving mood when they do and for members of the right to accept a lesser slice of the pie they’ve fattened themselves on over the last 250 years.

Jebus, I’m starting to think Brisket’s apocalypse is the most likely outcome.

 

 

Mmmmm, brisket apocalypse...

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30 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I definitely think the pendulum swings the other way and that an over correction left is likely.  I don’t think it likely the current right simply accepts it, says “whoops, our bad, let’s return to win-win centrist civility” and we all live happily ever after.  Or if they do, I think the left tells them to STFU, go sit in the back of the bus.

If you are some combination of male, white, Christian or wealthy and take umbrage to others pulling up a chair to the table of wealth and power, now is your final stand.  You find a way to preserve the existing order during Trump’s presidency or it will be forever gone.  <Cercei>You win or you die.</Cercei>

I think a last chance to break out of this and move forward peaceably will be for the dems to take control and then extend an olive branch to the right.  Pretty long odds on that, since it requires the dems to gain a preponderance of power, be in a forgiving mood when they do and for members of the right to accept a lesser slice of the pie they’ve fattened themselves on over the last 250 years.

Jebus, I’m starting to think Brisket’s apocalypse is the most likely outcome.

 

 

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Just now, David Dennison said:

Has the America you want to live in ever existed? 

Absolutely.  Not in that there was a time when 80% of America were centrists that governed better than the extremes, but rather that 20-40% of the voters who were centrists could ensure that seldom would either party gain a preponderance of power, and if they did, it would be short lived.  The fringes at either pole were held in check and very rarely accomplished much beyond bitching over the state of things.

Centrists are being driven to one side or the other.  There are no longer enough neutrals to keep the extremes in check.  On our present course, one extreme or the other will “win” with the other fading into history.  America will be fascist or communist.

Sure, I can pick the lesser of those two evil bags of shit, but I’d rather see us find a way back to where centrists could tip the balance one way or the other when either republicans or democrats started to get too big for their britches.

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Just now, Goredho said:

Absolutely.  Not in that there was a time when 80% of America were centrists that governed better than the extremes, but rather that 20-40% of the voters who were centrists could ensure that seldom would either party gain a preponderance of power, and if they did, it would be short lived.  The fringes at either pole were held in check and very rarely accomplished much beyond bitching over the state of things.

Centrists are being driven to one side or the other.  There are no longer enough neutrals to keep the extremes in check.  On our present course, one extreme or the other will “win” with the other fading into history.  America will be fascist or communist.

Sure, I can pick the lesser of those two evil bags of shit, but I’d rather see us find a way back to where centrists could tip the balance one way or the other when either republicans or democrats started to get too big for their britches.

There's a place for you.  IT's out on the ledge with me.  We're dismissed as crazy people, and -- depending ENTIRELY on which party is in power at a given moment, "libtards" or "fascists."

It's a nice ledge, though.  We have scotch.

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1 minute ago, Goredho said:

Absolutely.  Not in that there was a time when 80% of America were centrists that governed better than the extremes, but rather that 20-40% of the voters who were centrists could ensure that seldom would either party gain a preponderance of power, and if they did, it would be short lived.  The fringes at either pole were held in check and very rarely accomplished much beyond bitching over the state of things.

Centrists are being driven to one side or the other.  There are no longer enough neutrals to keep the extremes in check.  On our present course, one extreme or the other will “win” with the other fading into history.  America will be fascist or communist.

Sure, I can pick the lesser of those two evil bags of shit, but I’d rather see us find a way back to where centrists could tip the balance one way or the other when either republicans or democrats started to get too big for their britches.

Communist? Come on.

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56 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Communist? Come on.

I’m using a derisive label the right uses for the left.  The point is that hard left idealists like AO-C starting to unseat the Democratic party establishment could be the beginnings of the left-equivalent of a Tea Party movement.  That I see the dems breaking hard left in response to Trump like repubs broke hard right before them.  And when both parties are simply either alt-right or alt-left, and whichever way the centrists vote, an alt-* is gaining power — well, America is truly fucked then.

As you said, there will be no olive branch.  When you get control, It’s time to finish the opposition once and for all.  I understand that mindset in response to what we are seeing out of our paraquat of a President.  I want nothing more than to see America rid of all vestiges of Trumpism. But it’s also a mindset that helped put him there in the first place and helps people continue to justify their support for him and his policies.  They want to finish you.

So what do we do?  How do we avoid the Brisket apocalypse?  I don’t fucking know.  I’m just some asshole living in Colorado that drinks too much beer and smokes too much weed.  I’m personally going to aspire to the life of (little) Jeffrey Lebowski, watch the human parody unfold and vote straight Dem for the foreseeable future.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

There's a place for you.  IT's out on the ledge with me.  We're dismissed as crazy people, and -- depending ENTIRELY on which party is in power at a given moment, "libtards" or "fascists."

It's a nice ledge, though.  We have scotch.

Im not cultured enough to drink scotch, but I’ll join you on that ledge.  There is comfort in knowing that if worst comes to worst, I can always jump off.

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3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

As you said, there will be no olive branch.  When you get control, It’s time to finish the opposition once and for all.  I understand that mindset in response to what we are seeing out of our paraquat of a President.  I want nothing more than to see America rid of all vestiges of Trumpism. But it’s also a mindset that helped put him there in the first place and helps people continue to justify their support for him and his policies.  They want to finish you.

I agree with this.  And as sympathetic as I am to that instinct, it scares the shit out of me.

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1 hour ago, Goredho said:

Absolutely.

When?

Quote

The point is that hard left idealists like AO-C starting to unseat the Democratic party establishment could be the beginnings of the left-equivalent of a Tea Party movement.  That I see the dems breaking hard left in response to Trump like repubs broke hard right before them.  And when both parties are simply either alt-right or alt-left, and whichever way the centrists vote, an alt-* is gaining power — well, America is truly fucked then.

AOC's platform would lead to America being "truly fucked"? lol ok

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26 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The point is that hard left idealists like AO-C starting to unseat the Democratic party establishment could be the beginnings of the left-equivalent of a Tea Party movement.

The difference between the Tea Party and the AO-C is the absence of nihilism.  The tea party was straight up burn it all down nihilist types.  The hard left is actually FOR things and probably more willing to compromise.  

The bottom line is the hard left brings ideas to the table whereas the current Trumpist party brings jack shit.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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23 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The difference between the Tea Party and the AO-C is the absence of nihilism.  The tea party was straight up burn it all down nihilist types.  The hard left is actually FOR things and probably more willing to compromise.  

The bottom line is the hard left brings ideas to the table whereas the current Trumpist party brings jack shit.

You're wrong. Selfishness is an idea. And it's an idea easily weaponized by the greedy, power hungry and our enemies abroad. It's also quite easily distilled to soundbite and bumper-sticker form.

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On 7/2/2018 at 4:26 PM, Tuco said:

She's an attractive, quick-witted, bartender working in an organization of 350 men.  She'll have a line of old stupid fucks looking to mentor her. (No, that's not a euphemism.) She'll be fine.  My bigger concern relates to vetting a staff, avoiding gaffes, keeping her shit together on accounting/legal stuff.  You know the Republicans are going to keep her under a microscope, looking for anything that resembles scandal.  

 

On 7/2/2018 at 4:37 PM, FondrenRoad said:

Oh yeah, because the Republicans really keep their shit together on accounting/legal stuff. 

The first thing she will have to overcome will probably be a donor issue. Inevitably, she will take money from a donor affiliated with a corporation. In fact, she probably already has, but Crowley didn't dig, and the GOP hasn't dug yet. 

She is a shoe-in to win in November and will be for many Novembers to come even if the worst case scenarios you both have outlined come to pass. Crowley won in 2016 by 60 points, as did Hillary. Her district is as blue as they come. Get used to her, unless the Dems in her district get tired of it 8 cycles from now.

The Reds may try to put her under a microscope, but unless she is in any position of leadership, such attacks won't have 10% of the teeth of those against someone like Maxine Waters. In 5 years, AOC will probably be just another Barbara Lee, an ultra-left congresswoman from a navy blue district who fills the local papers with the occasional tasty soundbite.

Every second Fox News spends on AOC is a second they aren't spending on Chuck and Nancy, or in talking up the Dotard.

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5 hours ago, Goredho said:

I’m using a derisive label the right uses for the left.  The point is that hard left idealists like AO-C starting to unseat the Democratic party establishment could be the beginnings of the left-equivalent of a Tea Party movement.  That I see the dems breaking hard left in response to Trump like repubs broke hard right before them.  And when both parties are simply either alt-right or alt-left, and whichever way the centrists vote, an alt-* is gaining power — well, America is truly fucked then.

As you said, there will be no olive branch.  When you get control, It’s time to finish the opposition once and for all.  I understand that mindset in response to what we are seeing out of our paraquat of a President.  I want nothing more than to see America rid of all vestiges of Trumpism. But it’s also a mindset that helped put him there in the first place and helps people continue to justify their support for him and his policies.  They want to finish you.

So what do we do?  How do we avoid the Brisket apocalypse?  I don’t fucking know.  I’m just some asshole living in Colorado that drinks too much beer and smokes too much weed.  I’m personally going to aspire to the life of (little) Jeffrey Lebowski, watch the human parody unfold and vote straight Dem for the foreseeable future.

Said it before.  If I was George Soros, Trump is the guy I want to win, because he’s the guy who will give rise to the left’s version of the Tea Party movement.

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Here's a good thought to hang onto.

Y'all are all in here on Independence Day arguing about the direction of the country. At some level you have a compelling interest to engage your fellow citizens in a discussion of the Midterms. 

The least of interesting elections. When the pissed off show up to vote their displeasure. And that's what makes this one fun. 

All it takes is showing up and voting. 

 

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3 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

 

She is a shoe-in to win in November and will be for many Novembers to come even if the worst case scenarios you both have outlined come to pass. Crowley won in 2016 by 60 points, as did Hillary. Her district is as blue as they come. Get used to her, unless the Dems in her district get tired of it 8 cycles from now.

The Reds may try to put her under a microscope, but unless she is in any position of leadership, such attacks won't have 10% of the teeth of those against someone like Maxine Waters. In 5 years, AOC will probably be just another Barbara Lee, an ultra-left congresswoman from a navy blue district who fills the local papers with the occasional tasty soundbite.

Every second Fox News spends on AOC is a second they aren't spending on Chuck and Nancy, or in talking up the Dotard.

She will be a shoe in in November. She wont be a shoe in for many Junes to come. As an incumbent, she becomes vulnerable to the exact same tactic she just used. What she proved more than anything is that incumbents are never safe.  She has to deliver.  She cant just vote in losing efforts. And she will have to fight against grassroots next time if she doesnt deliver. Especially if she campaigns for others or stumps nationally during 2020.

She will never face a real GOP challenger. She will face a Dem challenger every time though because she made that okay.  It's a good thing in the long run, but it doesnt bode well for her, or anyone in a strong Dem district, staying in Congress long term.

I'm also not against her. I voted for her, so I'm quite familiar with how she won. Next time, I'll likely vote for the next person who claims they will actually support the district while she is fucking around at the national convention and stumping for progressive candidates nationwide. Unless she ignores the adulation of you assholes 3000 miles away and does what she promised.Then she will get my vote again.

Edited by FondrenRoad
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27 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

She will be a shoe in in November. She wont be a shoe in for many Junes to come. As an incumbent, she becomes vulnerable to the exact same tactic she just used. What she proved more than anything is that incumbents are never safe.  She has to deliver.  She cant just vote in losing efforts. And she will have to fight against grassroots next time if she doesnt deliver. Especially if she campaigns for others or stumps nationally during 2020.

 She will never face a real GOP challenger. She will face a Dem challenger every time though because she made that okay.  It's a good thing in the long run, but it doesnt bode well for her, or anyone in a strong Dem district, staying in Congress long term.

I'm also not against her. I voted for her, so I'm quite familiar with how she won. Next time, I'll likely vote for the next person who claims they will actually support the district while she is fucking around at the national convention and stumping for progressive candidates nationwide. Unless she ignores the adulation of you assholes 3000 miles away and does what she promised.Then she will get my vote again.

Her voting record won't matter. Crowley lost because of his well-known ties to special interests and the Party leadership. If his voting record did him in, it was because of being too cozy with the banks and wall street.

As long as AOC is perceived as being a boat rocker to a certain extent, she can represent NY-14 for as long as she likes. Voters won't give a shit if her bills fail to make it out of committee as long as she is seen as being responsive to her constituents. Her fight will be in the press and out on social media as much as it will be within Congress, especially while her kind are still a significant minority in DC. As far as stumping goes, she can help raise money for 2020 nominees without having to look over her shoulder as long as she's also holding town halls back in Queens. 

Could she become corrupted by the NYC Democratic machine? I guess so, but then so would anybody. I'd be more worried about all this political insanity subsiding someday, and her losing to a well-funded, well-connected moderate primary challenger rather than to another bomb thrower.

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2 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

She will face a Dem challenger every time though because she made that okay.  It's a good thing in the long run, but it doesnt bode well for her, or anyone in a strong Dem district, staying in Congress long term.

Uh... good?

Not every member of the Democratic Party needs to be some centrist cuck functionary sprinting to be first to bend the knee in the name of compromise and stagnation in leadership over the course of decades is nothing to be proud of or hope for.

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9 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Here's a good thought to hang onto.

Y'all are all in here on Independence Day arguing about the direction of the country. At some level you have a compelling interest to engage your fellow citizens in a discussion of the Midterms. 

The least of interesting elections. When the pissed off show up to vote their displeasure. And that's what makes this one fun. 

All it takes is showing up and voting. 

 

That's why I have little sympathy for the left right now.  There is much kvetching about Trump's SC pick.  Some have even said he should wait until after the mid terms so that we can have an election when a SC pick is at stake.  However, we had one in 2016 (Merrick Garland) and the left didn't show up enough and when they did, some of them voted for Jill Stein and whatnot.  If just the Jill Stein voters in WI, MI, and PA had voted for Hillary, Trump isn't president.  That's not even getting into the low turnout across the board.  Yes, I'm aware that Hillary was a bad candidate but Republicans have bad candidates all the time and the base still votes.  Elections have consequences.

That being said, that's what I find interesting right now.  The liberal base is finally learning that voting and turnout matters and it matters more in the down ballot elections.  The coming blue wave might not be so much of people switching their vote as it is key Democratic groups finally showing up to the polls.

 

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5 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That being said, that's what I find interesting right now.  The liberal base is finally learning that voting and turnout matters and it matters more in the down ballot elections.  The coming blue wave might not be so much of people switching their vote as it is key Democratic groups finally showing up to the polls.

 

Absolutely.  That will be why it will be impossible to judge until after the election. Nobody has any idea how many left/Dem/anti-Trump people will show up and nobody has any idea how many right/Rep/pro-Trump people will show up.  "Likely voter" is anybody's guess right now. 

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1 hour ago, Tuco said:

Absolutely.  That will be why it will be impossible to judge until after the election. Nobody has any idea how many left/Dem/anti-Trump people will show up and nobody has any idea how many right/Rep/pro-Trump people will show up.  "Likely voter" is anybody's guess right now. 

Donald Trump is going to end up being one of the best things to ever happen to the Democratic Party. If Clinton had won, Republicans would be looking to increase their numbers in both houses. They are going to lose the House and could very well lose the Senate in November.

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