2018 - Elections and Trends

[David Dennison 18856]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Yes, the democrats are going to own the house in 2019. 

Madam Speaker Strikes Back

[Anastasis 23469]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Madam Speaker Strikes Back

She has more clear cut dementia symptoms than Trump. I think we are going to see someone else at the helm. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Yes, the democrats are going to own the house in 2019. 

I could still see anything from a 15-seat swing to a 100-seat swing.  There is just enough going on right now that I don't have a great feel for how things are going to shake out.

That being said, if I had to wager right now, I'd say the next Speaker will be a Democrat.

The real interesting thing to watch is state legislatures.  I think there are going to be some real bloodbaths for Republicans in various state legislatures in November.

[RayDog 682]

The recent Emerson poll showed a generic ballot of 49 to 42 favoring Democrats but in the Midwest states it was 52 to 38. There appears to be backlash against Trump in the Midwestern states.

[Storm the Field 5294]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

I don't think SurveyMonkey tries to be a scientific poll - like with respect to managing demographics and such.  Could be wrong, but it's a feedback marketing company first.

SurveyMonkey is so poorly thought of that RCP doesn't even include their results in their aggregate. They are a 100% online polling org.

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I could still see anything from a 15-seat swing to a 100-seat swing.  There is just enough going on right now that I don't have a great feel for how things are going to shake out.

That being said, if I had to wager right now, I'd say the next Speaker will be a Democrat.

The real interesting thing to watch is state legislatures.  I think there are going to be some real bloodbaths for Republicans in various state legislatures in November.

Any report on Texas?

[Skyline 325]

14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's funny--I was coming to post about that before I even say Silver's tweets.  Those two lines have been diverging with some consistency for weeks--going back to mid-May.  

And to Nate's point--it coincides with a news-y period (including news on North Korea that most pundits thought was favorable to the Republicans).  And this is supposed to be a non-newsy period.  The middle of summer is when it's supposed to be quiet in DC.  If there's this much going on now, it's going to be even more intense in October.

Dems will need all the help they can get. If this trend continues to hold then they will need another news-y cycle in the fall. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

12 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Any report on Texas?

Just looking at the map, I can see the Dems picking up 5-10 House seats and 1 or 2 Senate seats.  It could be more--I haven't been watching the races outside Austin and Dallas.  But I can tell you that Paul Workman is in a world of trouble, and Villaba's and Gonzalez's districts are in real danger of flipping.

[David Dennison 18856]

42 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

She has more clear cut dementia symptoms than Trump. I think we are going to see someone else at the helm. 

Not a chance. She will be the next Speaker of the House. She's sharp as a tack and gets shit done.

[Anastasis 23469]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Not a chance. She will be the next Speaker of the House. She's sharp as a tack and gets shit done.

Will be awesome when both political parties are lead by neurological and psychiatric basket cases. 

[SubliminalHorn 6786]

1 hour ago, Skyline said:

Dems will need all the help they can get. If this trend continues to hold then they will need another news-y cycle in the fall. 

With this administration, I don’t think slow news will be an issue

Edited July 11, 2018 by SubliminalHorn

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Not a chance. She will be the next Speaker of the House. She's sharp as a tack and gets shit done.

Um. Did you not see that she is a woman?  Women can't lead silly. 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

2 hours ago, Skyline said:

Dems will need all the help they can get. If this trend continues to hold then they will need another news-y cycle in the fall. 

Trump administration can barely reunite any families, which is only going to become a bigger clusterfuck and drive more women to the polls. And we haven’t seen anything close to the full impact of Trump’s trade war or how the Russian stuff shakes out.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

2 hours ago, RayDog said:

The recent Emerson poll showed a generic ballot of 49 to 42 favoring Democrats but in the Midwest states it was 52 to 38. There appears to be backlash against Trump in the Midwestern states.

Just wait until we see the full trade war kick in.  Plenty of crops still in the field that will need to be sold somewhere.

Edited July 11, 2018 by atomheartbevo

[berlinerbaer 678]

3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Just looking at the map, I can see the Dems picking up 5-10 House seats and 1 or 2 Senate seats.  It could be more--I haven't been watching the races outside Austin and Dallas.  But I can tell you that Paul Workman is in a world of trouble, and Villaba's and Gonzalez's districts are in real danger of flipping.

I was going to call you insane before realizing you're talking State Leg here. I expect a couple of flips in the State House here in the greater Houston area and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more. 

The State Senate is another story. Too gerrymandered.

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Will be awesome when both political parties are lead by neurological and psychiatric basket cases. 

I want Pelosi out for the same reason I want all of the Dem leadership in the House out. They're all too fucking old. The short term health of the party depends on the young reps getting some experience calling the shots.

It's not because I perceive her to be crazy or any more partisan than the other side.

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

As a public education employee, I am very concerned about the state level races. Straus saved our asses for a while. It’s about to be open season with him gone. Very doubtful, but hoping that enough flips will make some pubs think twice.

[Js1 85318]

2 separate polls have shown verrry close race between Patrick and Collier. Patrick getting the boot would stop a lot of the crazy coming out of the Lege

Edited July 11, 2018 by Js1

[Gil Bang 25949]

10 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

It would seem to me that today's liberal is most concerned with what government can give them.  Today's conservative is most concerned with what government can take from them.

that's because you're a moron.

[EMAWesome 101]

12 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Not a chance. She will be the next Speaker of the House. She's sharp as a tack and gets shit done.

I have a personal philosophy of never putting anyone on ignore.  I would rather wade through a river of shit posts on the off chance that there is that one post that provides enlightenment or an intellectual debate with myself or with that person than have the slightest chance of missing that post.  You have tested that philosophy like no other poster here or on Shaggyworld.

[Js1 85318]

13 hours ago, RayDog said:

The recent Emerson poll showed a generic ballot of 49 to 42 favoring Democrats but in the Midwest states it was 52 to 38. There appears to be backlash against Trump in the Midwestern states.

Emerson (+7 D) and Rasmussen (+8 D) are NOT Democratic-leaning polling outfits.

Rasmussen is R +1.5 and Emerson is pretty much at 0.  This says a lot that outfits like Rasmussen even see the wave coming.

[Storm the Field 5294]

 

[Skyline 325]

18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump administration can barely reunite any families, which is only going to become a bigger clusterfuck and drive more women to the polls. And we haven’t seen anything close to the full impact of Trump’s trade war or how the Russian stuff shakes out.

Then again, there's no one better at deflecting than the Trump admin. They will just roll along like nothing's happening. 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

18 minutes ago, Skyline said:

Then again, there's no one better at deflecting than the Trump admin. They will just roll along like nothing's happening. 

Plenty of women already feel uneasy about him, if not outright loathing him.  It’s only going to become more pronounced as we see more horror stories about e separations,

As incompetent as the Dems are, Trump has every intention of driving the fence-sitters off the fence and to the polls for them.

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Washpark 176]

the dems are going to fuck themselves. the dem leadership is as guilty as republicans for giving us Trump

 

 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

1 minute ago, Washpark said:

the dems are going to fuck themselves. the dem leadership is as guilty as republicans for giving us Trump

 

 

The world will be such a better place when that entire generation is gone.

Edited July 12, 2018 by Chuckie Finster

[Js1 85318]

13 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Yep. It's amazing how little GOP-tainted House polls have dropped to counter the DCCC polls.  Because their numbers match or are worse.

Of course, the higher number of GOP-tainted Senate polls tell the other end of the tale. 

The blue wave has the entire House underwater.

The blue wave is barely lapping at the Senate doorstep.

It's a lot easier to retake a chamber where all 435 members are up. It's much harder when only 33 are up and you're defending more turf. The GOP is going to see how that feels in 2020/2022. Those 2 cycles will be the exact opposite of 2016.

Edited July 12, 2018 by Js1

[Js1 85318]

For the Senate races (post-primary), follow the money.  Democrats continue to outraise their opponents in the top 10 swing races.

Manchin raised $1.5 million, exceeding his $935k Q1 total. $6.2 million COH. His opponent raised $1.28m with $895k COH.

Claire raised $4.3 million, with $12.2m COH. Hawley raised $1.87m with $3 million COH.  That beats her $3.9m in Q1.

Heitkamp raked in $1.9m in 2Q with $5.2m COH.

Rosen $3.5m in Q2; Heller $2.38m

And of course, Beto had a huge haul. Way more than Ted. Also has more COH.

Rick Scott raised $10 million for his FL Senate bid. Don't know Nelson's numbers yet, but he did $13.5 million in Q1.  Rick Scott also has unlimited personal money to pour into his bid.

Braun in Indiana did about $2.5 million; Donnelly hasn't released numbers yet.

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13584]

On 7/12/2018 at 8:56 AM, Washpark said:

the dems are going to fuck themselves. the dem leadership is as guilty as republicans for giving us Trump

 

 

Not as guilty, but bear a large portion of the culpability. Establishment Dems too often demand loyalty they don't reciprocate. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

On 7/12/2018 at 9:56 AM, Washpark said:

the dems are going to fuck themselves. the dem leadership is as guilty as republicans for giving us Trump

 

 

That's not entirely accurate. He won a 3rd party primary and cant get off the ballot due to NY state law. He is not campaigning on it.  Her people are also who screwed up the calls.

The dumb thing is that she's almost enticing him to campaign on the 3rd party ticket by starting a Twitter war. The best thing for her would be to accept his concession and move on to the general. Instead, she is giving him free publicity, and perhaps even creating animosity between them which would cause him to actively campaign. I still dont think he will though. 

Edited July 14, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Skyline 325]

Should we have a separate thread just for polls and stuff? Even if it isn't necessarily 2018 election related. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

I think it falls in the category of trends. Keep it.

[RayDog 682]

Not being my field I was curious which states are going to be most impacted by tariffs on soybeans, corn, sorghum, pork and beef so I looked up the top 10 producing states of each. I highlighted the ones in the top three. There aren't many surprises, but it is big chunk of the country to piss off. I wonder how this strategy will work for the Rebublicans.

Illinois - Soybean(1), Corn(2), Sorghum, Pork
Iowa - Soybean(2), Corn(1), Pork(1), Beef
Texas - Beef (1), Sorghum (2)
Minnesota - Soybean(3), Corn, Pork(3)
Missouri - Soybean, Corn, Sorghum, Pork, Beef(3)
Kansas - Corn, Sorghum(1), Pork, Beef
Nebraska - Corn(3), Sorghum, Pork, Beef
South Dakota - Soybean, Corn, Sorghum, Beef
Oklahoma - Sorghum, Pork, Beef(2)
North Carolina - Pork(2)
Colorado - Sorghum(3)
Ohio - Soybean, Corn, Pork
Colorado - Sorghum(3) 
North Dakota - Soybean, Beef
Indiana - Soybean, Corn, 
Arkansas - Soybean
Wisconsin - Corn 
New Mexico - Sorghum
Louisiana - Sorghum
Montana - Beef
Kentucky - Beef

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

Does the Helsinki debacle and resulting Fox News condemnation of it, bump up the average dem a few points?  

[Message Board User 12395]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does the Helsinki debacle and resulting Fox News condemnation of it, bump up the average dem a few points?  

I think this covers it - will need to wait a week or so.

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Js1 85318]

CA-48 near the top of my list of races that have to flip D -> R to secure the House.  Same with VA-10 (Monmouth had Comstock down 9), TX-23 (would love to see a poll of Hurd vs. Ortiz Jones) and FL-27 (Curbelo). 

[kevwun 15777]

51 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

It's really going to hurt Rohrabacher when it becomes widely known that he's the congressman named in the Butina affidavit.

[Js1 85318]

Just now, kevwun said:

It's really going to hurt Rohrabacher when it becomes widely known that he's the congressman named in the Butina affidavit.

This is also pre-"I want to arm all the 3 year olds to keep them from getting shot in schools" idiocy from the Sasha Baron Cohen show.

[kevwun 15777]

I'd also wager there's a greater than 50% chance he's gonna get charged in the Mueller or Butina investigation.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

50 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It's really going to hurt Rohrabacher when it becomes widely known that he's the congressman named in the Butina affidavit.

And the funny thing is, there is supposedly a billboard saying he takes money from the Russians that’s already up.  It’ll become even more relevant once he starts getting namedropped.

[Js1 85318]

Emerson had another poll in the TN Senate race. I like this race a lot.  It's more under the radar compared to other D pickup opportunities but looks to be behind NV/AZ in terms of believability but ahead of Texas.

Bredesen is a former governor who is super popular and basically the D version of Alexander/Corker.  He's not some crazy firebrand.  Blackburn is female Ted Cruz.

Bredesen 43, Blackburn 37: https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf

Though the Committee to Defend the President (yes, a real thing) released a counter poll showing Blackburn up 3.  Not much of a thing to tout, as they've released 3 polls of this race and her lead has gone from +9 to +5 to +3 in the last 8 months. Moving backwards is bad.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html

Bredesen has led by 2-10 in all the decent polling done in the race. The only time Blackburn leads is the really shitty SurveyMonkey/Axios poll.

[Js1 85318]

I can hear the damn dog whistles from here

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/us/politics/antonio-delgado-lyrics.html

Quote

“Is a guy who makes a rap album the kind of guy who lives here in rural New York and reflects our lifestyle and values?” said Mr. Benjamin, a longtime political science professor, adding that he personally doesn’t consider rap music to be “real music.”

He means black.

Quote

“People like us, people in rural New York, we are not people who respond to this part of American culture,” Mr. Benjamin said.

Urban culture.

[zork 629]

Hmm.  

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-uninformed-economic-views-of-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-in-2-charts/

Edited July 18, 2018 by zork
added AEI link below the twitter link

[FondrenRoad 4378]

20 hours ago, Js1 said:

I can hear the damn dog whistles from here

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/us/politics/antonio-delgado-lyrics.html

He means black.

Urban culture.

Fuck that guy.  That tactic may win him that race though, unfortunately.

[David Dennison 18856]

4 minutes ago, zork said:

Hmm.  

She's right about capitalism and partially right about unemployment. Unemployment is also low because people have simply dropped out of the labor market and are no longer included in the headline unemployment number.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

On 7/17/2018 at 9:24 AM, Js1 said:

Emerson had another poll in the TN Senate race. I like this race a lot.  It's more under the radar compared to other D pickup opportunities but looks to be behind NV/AZ in terms of believability but ahead of Texas.

Bredesen is a former governor who is super popular and basically the D version of Alexander/Corker.  He's not some crazy firebrand.  Blackburn is female Ted Cruz.

Bredesen 43, Blackburn 37: https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf

Though the Committee to Defend the President (yes, a real thing) released a counter poll showing Blackburn up 3.  Not much of a thing to tout, as they've released 3 polls of this race and her lead has gone from +9 to +5 to +3 in the last 8 months. Moving backwards is bad.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html

Bredesen has led by 2-10 in all the decent polling done in the race. The only time Blackburn leads is the really shitty SurveyMonkey/Axios poll.

That's just a good old-fashioned candidate-driven race.  Bredesen is a popular former governor running against a lunatic.  He's up slightly now, and that's before Marsha Blackburn gets caught saying something insane (which you know she'll do, because she's a lunatic).

That has a real good chance of being a Democrat flip.

Which the Democrats need, because Indiana is going to be tough.

[RDCanecutter 26424]

On 7/13/2018 at 10:36 PM, FondrenRoad said:

That's not entirely accurate. He won a 3rd party primary and cant get off the ballot due to NY state law. He is not campaigning on it.  Her people are also who screwed up the calls.

The dumb thing is that she's almost enticing him to campaign on the 3rd party ticket by starting a Twitter war. The best thing for her would be to accept his concession and move on to the general. Instead, she is giving him free publicity, and perhaps even creating animosity between them which would cause him to actively campaign. I still dont think he will though. 

Joe Lieberman jumped off my NYT op-ed page to tell me to support Crowley.

Probably not a coincidence that ¡OCASIO!-Cortez recently vocal-fried her way through a televised interview, seeming less

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