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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Didn't see this posted but Manchin in West Virginia has a 10 point lead, pretty remarkable considering Trump won the state by 40.

Numbers which show trump winning a state are skewed because Hillary was the alternative. I really do think people are underestimating that. 

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Hey Zork ... please do a deep dive into the race for North Carolina House District 48.  The Republican candidate is this man: 

http://www.walkerforhouse48.com/

 

This may be the most incredible ---- in a bad way ------ political website I've ever seen.  
 



 

Quote

...

It’s true that Walker won a 8 May 2018 primary and will therefore be the Republican candidate in the 6 November 2018 general election, during which he’ll face Democratic incumbent Garland Pierce in a race to represent District 48 in the North Carolina state House of Representatives.

The North Carolina Republican Party, however, has not only pulled their financial support from Walker, but they have also barred him from the party’s events and property. Dallas Woodhouse, the state’s Republican party executive director, told us that District 48 is solidly Democrat, and the likelihood of Walker’s winning it is therefore low. “We will be likely passing a formal resolution that asks Republicans not to vote, or vote for someone else, which is extraordinary for our party to do,” Woodhouse told us.

The state Republican party also put out an official statement declaring that they “will be spending our time and resources supporting Republican candidates that better reflect the values of our party.”

Although it’s true Walker won the Republican primary with 65 percent of the vote, Woodhouse pointed out that voter turn-out in the primary was very low. District 48 has a total of 52,828 registered voters, according to state data, but Walker received only 824 votes.

...

Executive summary:

Looks like your boy won't have a chance in hell of winning even if he weren't a reported anti-semite, racist, chemical engineer with a ton of opinion on virtually any topic you could name.  The R's didn't vet him and the anti-semite/racist information didn't come out till after the primary.  The R party has a restraining order against him from any of the R party premises and have generally disavowed the guy.   The district has voted heavily Democrat in past elections.

Some more info on the race:

Did  a google search

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C2CHBD_enUS773US774&source=hp&ei=b19QW93bHuni0gKdnK7QBw&q=Russell+Walker++--++North+Carolina+House&oq=Russell+Walker++--++North+Carolina+House&gs_l=psy-ab.12...2656.2656.0.4300.3.2.0.0.0.0.93.93.1.2.0....0...1.2.64.psy-ab..1.0.0.0...102.cuc-ghzSMzw

and the first link that came up was from Snopes which had the above quoted material from the link.  824 votes won him the Republican primary in the non-national statehouse race in that North Carolina primary. 

His opponent in the upcoming general election race ran un-opposed in the Dem primary.  The last vote totals I could find for Garland Pierce were the 27,193 votes he got in 2012 when he also ran un-opposed in that general election.  And he won earlier in 2010 with 9,698 votes vs 3,267 in that general election. 

The R primary challenger he beat to get to the general race was this guy:

https://ballotpedia.org/John_Imbaratto

Here is an article about the primary and upcoming general race with some info on Imbaratto with his summary of the race he lost and more info about the Republicans as they figured out, after the fact, about the guy in question who won.  Read it here:

https://www.wral.com/racist-candidate-nc-republican-headline/17672629/

 

Here is a breakdown of the district(article above mentions ~55,000 registered voters):

https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_House_of_Representatives_District_48

Population 83,406
Race 30.26% White, 51.24% Black, 11.79% Native American, 0.63% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3.51% Single Race Other, 2.57% Multi-Race[1]
Ethnicity 5.92% Hispanic, 94.08% Non-Hispanic
Voting age 73.8% age 18 and over
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21152

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Hey Zork ... please do a deep dive into the race for North Carolina House District 48.  The Republican candidate is this man: 

http://www.walkerforhouse48.com/

 

This may be the most incredible ---- in a bad way ------ political website I've ever seen.  
 



 

 

2 hours ago, zork said:

Executive summary:

Looks like your boy won't have a chance in hell of winning even if he weren't a reported anti-semite, racist, chemical engineer with a ton of opinion on virtually any topic you could name.  The R's didn't vet him and the anti-semite/racist information didn't come out till after the primary.  The R party has a restraining order against him from any of the R party premises and have generally disavowed the guy.   The district has voted heavily Democrat in past elections.

Some more info on the race:

Did  a google search

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C2CHBD_enUS773US774&source=hp&ei=b19QW93bHuni0gKdnK7QBw&q=Russell+Walker++--++North+Carolina+House&oq=Russell+Walker++--++North+Carolina+House&gs_l=psy-ab.12...2656.2656.0.4300.3.2.0.0.0.0.93.93.1.2.0....0...1.2.64.psy-ab..1.0.0.0...102.cuc-ghzSMzw

and the first link that came up was from Snopes which had the above quoted material from the link.  824 votes won him the Republican primary in the non-national statehouse race in that North Carolina primary. 

His opponent in the upcoming general election race ran un-opposed in the Dem primary.  The last vote totals I could find for Garland Pierce were the 27,193 votes he got in 2012 when he also ran un-opposed in that general election.  And he won earlier in 2010 with 9,698 votes vs 3,267 in that general election. 

The R primary challenger he beat to get to the general race was this guy:

https://ballotpedia.org/John_Imbaratto

Here is an article about the primary and upcoming general race with some info on Imbaratto with his summary of the race he lost and more info about the Republicans as they figured out, after the fact, about the guy in question who won.  Read it here:

https://www.wral.com/racist-candidate-nc-republican-headline/17672629/

 

Here is a breakdown of the district(article above mentions ~55,000 registered voters):

https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_House_of_Representatives_District_48

Population 83,406
Race 30.26% White, 51.24% Black, 11.79% Native American, 0.63% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3.51% Single Race Other, 2.57% Multi-Race[1]
Ethnicity 5.92% Hispanic, 94.08% Non-Hispanic
Voting age 73.8% age 18 and over

Zork, your next mission, should you choose to accept it, is in Thailand.  

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Js1

Js1 85320

Posted
Posted

The Weekly Standard's conservative leaning Swing Seat projections currently have the following for November:

-Dems pick up NV and AZ

-Tennessee is as 50/50 as it gets on their map (so pink it's almost transparent)

-Dems solidly keep WI, WV; more likely than not keeping Montana; leaning towards keeping in FL, MO

-GOP leaning towards picking up IN; more likely than not picking up ND

Median projection: 51-49 GOP
Average projection: 52-48 GOP

So all that bluster and the models sure look like a net gain of 0 or -1 for the GOP (if Tennessee leans away)

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

Zork, your next mission, should you choose to accept it, is in Thailand.  

A man is in bed with his Thai girlfriend.

Spoiler

A man is in bed with his Thai girlfriend. After having great sex, she spends the next hour just stroking his penis, something she had lovingly done on many occasions. Rather enjoying it, he turns and asks her, 'Why do you love doing that?' She replies: 'Because I really miss mine'

 

 

 

Edited by zork
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18856

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The Weekly Standard's conservative leaning Swing Seat projections currently have the following for November:

-Dems pick up NV and AZ

-Tennessee is as 50/50 as it gets on their map (so pink it's almost transparent)

-Dems solidly keep WI, WV; more likely than not keeping Montana; leaning towards keeping in FL, MO

-GOP leaning towards picking up IN; more likely than not picking up ND

Median projection: 51-49 GOP
Average projection: 52-48 GOP

So all that bluster and the models sure look like a net gain of 0 or -1 for the GOP (if Tennessee leans away)

0 or -1 is a bad election night for the GOP given the map. 

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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1975

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The Weekly Standard's conservative leaning Swing Seat projections currently have the following for November:

-Dems pick up NV and AZ

-Tennessee is as 50/50 as it gets on their map (so pink it's almost transparent)

-Dems solidly keep WI, WV; more likely than not keeping Montana; leaning towards keeping in FL, MO

-GOP leaning towards picking up IN; more likely than not picking up ND

Median projection: 51-49 GOP
Average projection: 52-48 GOP

So all that bluster and the models sure look like a net gain of 0 or -1 for the GOP (if Tennessee leans away)

Are people blustering that the Dems are going to take the Senate? I think you might be conflating the House bluster with the Senate. 

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Js1

Js1 85320

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

Are people blustering that the Dems are going to take the Senate? I think you might be conflating the House bluster with the Senate. 

No, it's still very unlikely. Like less than 25% chance.  But actually netting a one-seat pickup or no change is a big big win considering the map.

Edited by Js1
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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

That's one post. Now follow up with several more about that race that doesn't matter to anyone here.

 

More bluster from people with opinions of the latest Dem sensation:

Quote

...

“She’s carrying on and she ain’t gonna make friends that way,” said Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.). “Joe conceded, wished her well, said he would support her … so she doesn’t know what the hell she’s talking about.”

“She’s not asking my advice,” he added, “[but] I would do it differently, rather than make enemies of people.” 

Asked if Ocasio-Cortez is, indeed, making enemies of fellow Democrats, Pascrell didn’t hesitate. 

“Yes,” he said. “No doubt about it.”

Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) offered a similar message, saying success in the 435-member House comes slowly — and hinges largely on the ability of lawmakers to forge constructive relationships with other members. Alienating more senior lawmakers within your own party, he warned, will only stifle the ability of Ocasio-Cortez to get anything done — even despite her newfound celebrity.

“Meteors fizz out,” Hastings said. “What she will learn in this institution is that it’s glacial to begin with, and therefore no matter how far you rise, that’s just how far you will ultimately get your comeuppance.” 

He added: “You come up here and you’re going to be buddy-buddy with all the folks or you’re going to make them do certain things? Ain’t happening, OK?”

The criticism highlights a broader debate among House Democrats, who have wallowed in the minority for the past eight years and are still reckoning with the unexpected ascension of Trump to the White House. The discussion has featured animated internal disagreements over how — and when — to realize generational change at the top of the party, as well as ideological conflicts between liberals and centrists over how best to broaden the party’s regional appeal and retake power under the bombastic Trump administration.

Those questions have been revisited with the rise of Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old democratic socialist whose grass-roots campaign hinged on a promise to eschew corporate interests and discard the machine-politics approach she’s accused Crowley and the Democrats of adopting. In the eyes of her progressive supporters, Ocasio-Cortez is a breath of fresh air who will help in the fight for their ideals. 

“There is a need for progressive members in the caucus to raise the bar in terms of what we want and what we’re willing to do to get it,” said Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus who called Ocasio-Cortez to congratulate her on her victory. “And that involves a lot of risk, and that involves stepping on toes.”

...

Meanwhile, some Democrats are seething that Ocasio-Cortez would attack Crowley so publicly after securing her victory.

“Once an election is over and you win, why are you still angry?” said Rep. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.). “I think it’s a lack of maturity on her part, and a lack of political acumen, for her to be that petty.

“We as Democrats better figure out who the real enemy is. And it’s not each other.”

Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), a former chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, was more gentle, though he still lamented the tone of the post-primary debate, attributing it to inexperience on the part of Ocasio-Cortez.

“When it comes to courtesy and decency, and especially the way — the class way — in which Joe Crowley has conducted himself and every overture that he’s made, I think she would be wise to rethink some of the things that she’s saying,” he said.

Separately, a number of Democrats are also going after Ocasio-Cortez for her decision to endorse a handful of progressive candidates challenging sitting Democratic lawmakers, a list that includes Clay and Reps. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.), Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) and Adam Smith(D-Wash.), as well as Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.).

Ocasio-Cortez has defended that decision, saying she’s merely endorsing other liberal candidates “who uplifted & acknowledged my own campaign before anyone else would.”

...

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/397333-ocasio-cortez-draws-ire-from-democrats-meteors-fizz-out

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Js1

Js1 85320

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

If it's 0 or -1 in the Senate for the GOP, they get absolutely crushed in the House.

Anything from -1 to +1 for the GOP is going to be remembered as "blowing a wide open, fast break layup" in history books considering the map.   They looked at this map right after Trump won and saw 10 "automatic" pickups from Democrats in Trump-won states and probably thought they had a chance as soon as Franken's seat opened up.

Then Sessions was confirmed, Strange lost his primary and Jones won in December. And everything cracked from there.  Corker quits. Flake quits.  GOP nominates shitty candidates in West Virginia, Montana, Virginia and Pennsylvania.  Somehow, the GOP wunderkind in Missouri shows fundraising cracks as the ousted MO governor sets the bridges on fire on his way out.  And poor Dean Heller is flailing like a guy who blew $10k in chips in one hand and is down to his last $5.

What could have been a 60-seat GOP Senate in 2019 is most likely 50-52 seats instead.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32859

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Anything from -1 to +1 for the GOP is going to be remembered as "blowing a wide open, fast break layup" in history books considering the map.   They looked at this map right after Trump won and saw 10 "automatic" pickups from Democrats in Trump-won states and probably thought they had a chance as soon as Franken's seat opened up.

Who would have been foolish enough to assume that, or that being against Trump would be a terrible handicap?

http://www.shaggytexas.com/board/showthread.php/176317-Senate-2018

The first two posts in that thread are illuminating. As is the change in tone once Trump started doing predicable Trump things.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

Posted
Posted
On 7/17/2018 at 9:24 AM, Js1 said:

Emerson had another poll in the TN Senate race. I like this race a lot.  It's more under the radar compared to other D pickup opportunities but looks to be behind NV/AZ in terms of believability but ahead of Texas.

Bredesen is a former governor who is super popular and basically the D version of Alexander/Corker.  He's not some crazy firebrand.  Blackburn is female Ted Cruz.

Bredesen 43, Blackburn 37: https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf

Though the Committee to Defend the President (yes, a real thing) released a counter poll showing Blackburn up 3.  Not much of a thing to tout, as they've released 3 polls of this race and her lead has gone from +9 to +5 to +3 in the last 8 months. Moving backwards is bad.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tn/tennessee_senate_blackburn_vs_bredesen-6308.html

Bredesen has led by 2-10 in all the decent polling done in the race. The only time Blackburn leads is the really shitty SurveyMonkey/Axios poll.

Blackburn was rightfully blamed for assisting the opioid crisis.  I don't think that was her intention but rather her intention was to help the pharma industry by calling off the DEA.  That stink is hard to wash off.  

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Blackburn was rightfully blamed for assisting the opioid crisis.  I don't think that was her intention but rather her intention was to help the pharma industry by calling off the DEA.  That stink is hard to wash off.  

'Assisting' as in making it worse?  What is the scoop on that?(I could google it but maybe you have insight that would not be readily apparent from a google search)

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Js1

Js1 85320

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Blackburn was rightfully blamed for assisting the opioid crisis.  I don't think that was her intention but rather her intention was to help the pharma industry by calling off the DEA.  That stink is hard to wash off.  

You mean Female Ted Cruz? She's also COVERED in shit from the telcomms.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, zork said:

'Assisting' as in making it worse?  What is the scoop on that?(I could google it but maybe you have insight that would not be readily apparent from a google search)

She pushed for a law that took away many enforcement powers from the DEA when they were investigating pharma companies and how they were blantantly looking the other way as people were becoming addicted to opioids.    Her defense was that she didn’t realize there could be negative consequences of less govt. 

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kevwun said:

This is why isolationists are worthless.  They choose the Neville Chamberlain path every single time.

So Rand is Neville to Trump as Hitler?  Or Rand is defending Trump as Neville to Putin as Hitler? (or both) Or what are you saying? 

What is the military objective for your chosen depiction of the new Hitler?  Putin taking over Estonia, Lithuania, etc?  Trump conquering Canada or Mexico, or elsewhere?  

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kevwun

kevwun 15780

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

25 minutes ago, zork said:

So Rand is Neville to Trump as Hitler?  Or Rand is defending Trump as Neville to Putin as Hitler? (or both) Or what are you saying? 

What is the military objective for your chosen depiction of the new Hitler?  Putin taking over Estonia, Lithuania, etc?  Trump conquering Canada or Mexico, or elsewhere?  

Putin is Hitler in my comparison.  Putin already invaded the Ukraine and he's actively fucking with the political processes of several Western democracies.  Letting him do whatever he wants is not working, just like it didn't work with Hitler.  He's not going to stop out of the kindness of his heart.  He's going to have to face real consequences before he'll back off.

Edited by kevwun
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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32389

Posted
Posted

Hey, it's totally fine now in the House for churches to openly back a political candidate of their choice and not worry about that pesky IRS getting involved:

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/19/house-irs-churches-candidates-politics-698319

 

Quote

The House voted Thursday to make it harder for the government to punish churches that get involved in politics.

In a 217-199 vote, lawmakers approved legislation barring the IRS from revoking the tax-exempt status of churches that back political candidates, unless it is specifically approved by the commissioner of the agency.

The provision, buried in a budget measure setting IRS funding for the upcoming year, amounts to a backdoor way around the so-called Johnson amendment, a half-century-old prohibition on nonprofits getting involved in political campaign activities.

Nonprofits denounced the move, and noted it came only days after the Treasury Department announced it was dropping requirements that most charitable organizations disclose their big donors to the IRS.

“It’s now impossible for Congress and the White House to deny their objective: to politicize the trusted charitable nonprofit community by authorizing unlimited, unfettered and untraceable political money to flow through the nonprofit sector to benefit partisan special interests,” said Tim Delaney, head of the National Council of Nonprofits.

 

Quote

The move came as Senate Democrats forced the postponement of a Finance Committee confirmation vote on President Donald Trump's pick to run the IRS, in protest of the Treasury decision to ease the donor-disclosure requirements. Democrats say that will abet the rise of so-called dark money political campaign donations.

The Trump administration and House Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to repeal the Johnson amendment, named after then-Sen. Lyndon Johnson who pushed it through Congress in 1954.

 

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Nivek

Nivek 16926

Posted
Posted
Hey, it's totally fine now in the House for churches to openly back a political candidate of their choice and not worry about that pesky IRS getting involved:
 
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/19/house-irs-churches-candidates-politics-698319
 
The House voted Thursday to make it harder for the government to punish churches that get involved in politics.
In a 217-199 vote, lawmakers approved legislation barring the IRS from revoking the tax-exempt status of churches that back political candidates, unless it is specifically approved by the commissioner of the agency.
The provision, buried in a budget measure setting IRS funding for the upcoming year, amounts to a backdoor way around the so-called Johnson amendment, a half-century-old prohibition on nonprofits getting involved in political campaign activities.
Nonprofits denounced the move, and noted it came only days after the Treasury Department announced it was dropping requirements that most charitable organizations disclose their big donors to the IRS.
“It’s now impossible for Congress and the White House to deny their objective: to politicize the trusted charitable nonprofit community by authorizing unlimited, unfettered and untraceable political money to flow through the nonprofit sector to benefit partisan special interests,” said Tim Delaney, head of the National Council of Nonprofits.
 
The move came as Senate Democrats forced the postponement of a Finance Committee confirmation vote on President Donald Trump's pick to run the IRS, in protest of the Treasury decision to ease the donor-disclosure requirements. Democrats say that will abet the rise of so-called dark money political campaign donations.
The Trump administration and House Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to repeal the Johnson amendment, named after then-Sen. Lyndon Johnson who pushed it through Congress in 1954.
 

Churches should all be taxed. It is fucking ridiculous.
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The Independents are what matter here.  The Trump supporters will support him no matter what and they have no limit.  The media and the Dems need to stop focusing on them.  They are what they are.  

And beyond that, it's become a tautology to say "Republicans support Trump."  Of course they do.  The Republican Party is now defined by no idea or position other than complete and total loyalty to Trump.  The minute they don't support Trump, they stop identifying themselves as Republicans (see, e.g., Steve Schmidt).  

The real question is "are there more or fewer Republicans," and every poll I've seen indicates that there are fewer.

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relapse98

relapse98 634

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The Independents are what matter here.  The Trump supporters will support him no matter what and they have no limit.  The media and the Dems need to stop focusing on them.  They are what they are.  

Deplorables. She was right and they keep proving it. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted

In NE-2, Republicans are trying to make hay on the fact that Kara Eastman had, at one point, intended to be a sex therapist studying sexual dysfunction and was in a college band called "Pieces of Fuck."  Bunch of blue-pill popping old men who think the Brazzers version of a sex therapist is based in reality. 

NRCC

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

Zork how’s Guam looking? Or Compton?  Need to know about those races since I live in Houston.

Literally half(or more) the posts in this thread are not about Texas races.  

Guam race:

https://www.google.com/search?q=Guam+representative+election&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS773US773&oq=Guam+representative+election&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.9219j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Compton's district and race:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_44th_congressional_district

https://ballotpedia.org/California's_44th_Congressional_District_election,_2018

 

Edited by zork
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105116

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Tuco said:

In NE-2, Republicans are trying to make hay on the fact that Kara Eastman had, at one point, intended to be a sex therapist studying sexual dysfunction and was in a college band called "Pieces of Fuck."  Bunch of blue-pill popping old men who think the Brazzers version of a sex therapist is based in reality. 

NRCC

Whatever -- I was hoping she'd be hotter.

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kevwun

kevwun 15780

Posted
Posted (edited)

That's why I think Trump's approval numbers among Republicans have always gone up.  It's like a jar of salt water in the sun.  The water level is dropping, so the salinity level is increasing.  The pool of people who will admit to being Republican to pollsters is shrinking.

Edited by kevwun
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

Posted
Posted

Get Out the Vote needs some level of enthusiasm or fear.  While people will support Trump while sitting at home, a certain percentage of them will not go to the polls.  The Dems will have the same problem but the enthusiasm and fear is stronger with the Dems and Independents right now.  The question is whether it will be enough to flip either side of Congress.  As of today, it is.  November is still a long ways off.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89657

Posted
  • Author
Posted
17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Get Out the Vote needs some level of enthusiasm or fear.  While people will support Trump while sitting at home, a certain percentage of them will not go to the polls.  The Dems will have the same problem but the enthusiasm and fear is stronger with the Dems and Independents right now.  The question is whether it will be enough to flip either side of Congress.  As of today, it is.  November is still a long ways off.

His trade war is gonna help with the fear.

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