2018 - Elections and Trends

[kopp0e 1135]

20 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump from 1985-2005 was basically Avenatti in terms of the public eye.   Maybe Avenatti will be President one day.  Nothing is impossible now.

Agreed... What we have now is Idiocracy in action...

 

 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

20 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump from 1985-2005 was basically Avenatti in terms of the public eye.   Maybe Avenatti will be President one day.  Nothing is impossible now.

At least it cant be Justin Bieber so we have one thing going for us. 

[Js1 86397]

Those polls showing Baldwin (Trump +1), Stabenow (Trump +0.3%) and Smith (Clinton +1.5%) bode really poor for Republicans.  Those are huge swings back to Democrats, including the governorships.  Bodes well for Iowa and Ohio's governor races as well.  If they can't capitalize on those places where Republicans won WWC voters bigly, I fail to see how they're also going to take out Heitkamp and Donnelly.  Waves move in one direction, regardless of state boundaries.  The only issue is bad candidates stopping the wave (2010 and 2014 failed Republican Senate candidates, for example - of which incumbent Senators who won in 2012 are not).

Scott Walker losing might literally be the left's wet dream of 2018.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Js1

[atomheartbevo 90400]

24 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

At least it cant be Justin Bieber so we have one thing going for us. 

You have doomed us all.

Edited July 27, 2018 by atomheartbevo

[Tuco 5089]

Saw some Dem turn-out results from Nebraska's primary.  Douglas County (majority of NE-2) has roughly an increase of 90% of Dem registered voters in the primary from the last mid-term primary, and around 50% increase since the 2016 primary.  That gives me some hope for NE-2.  But it should be noted that in neither 2014 nor 2016 there was any question who the Dem candidate would be for Congress, while this year it was 51/49 result between a progressive and the moderate, establishment candidate. 

[kevwun 16097]

Scott Walker is a more polished version of Rick Perry.  There is no substance there.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Scott Walker is a more polished version of Rick Perry.  There is no substance there.

Walker is a dropout from Marquette, and Perry is a graduate of Texas A&M, which means that Walker is more educated. 

[Js1 86397]

3 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Walker is a dropout from Marquette, and Perry is a graduate of Texas A&M, which means that Walker is more educated. 

The Kochs love Walker.

Perry loves cock.

[zork 629]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The Kochs love Walker.

Perry loves cock.

oblig:

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13629]

25 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Scott Walker is a more polished version of Rick Perry.  There is no substance there.

If he loses, it will be one of the biggest non-scandal-related falls from political power.  Many thought he had a chance of winning in 2016 to getting kicked out of WI in 2018.

[Stringer 1484]

9 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

New NBC News/Marist Midwest state senate polls:

 

Wisconsin: Baldwin (D) 54%, Nicholson (R) 39% / Baldwin (D) 55%, Vukmir (R) 38% Michigan: Stabenow (D) 55%, James, (R) 37% / Stabenow (D) 52%, Pensler (R) 37% Minnesota: Smith (D) 49%, Housley (R) 35%

 

That’s great now but where were these D voting fuckers in November 2016?

The election turned on these states.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

3 minutes ago, Stringer said:

 

That’s great now but where were these D voting fuckers in November 2016?

Probably waiting for Hillary to drop by to ask for their votes.

[Js1 86397]

1 minute ago, Mojo Hand said:

Probably waiting for Hillary to drop by to ask for their votes.

Way too many bought into the "both sides are the same" and voted for Jill fucking Stein or stayed home.

[Brisketexan 106292]

9 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

 

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jul/24/democrats-start-scare-mainstream-americans/

 

 

You know you’ve got a solid news source when the author doesn’t even include a link to the poll that he bases his entire article on.

 

Edit: found it

 

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18570NBCWSJJulyPoll7-22-18Release.pdf

 

Republicans are viewed as even more “out of touch” in that same poll. But otherwise, cool article champ.

Yep, that fucking cracked me up.

Percent who think Dems are out of step -- 56.  Repubs out of step?  57.

How about this -- who is more influenced by special interests and lobbyists?  Dems, 31%....Repubs, 38%.

Maybe the questions on trade will look better?  Asked about trade barriers and tariffs, 25% said they will protect our jobs and help the economy!  Oh, but wait....49% said they will raise the cost of goods/hurt the economy.  Support for Trump's trade actions is at 26%! Oh, but opposition is at 53%.  Ouch.

At least you'll always have immigration as a winning issue!  31% say immigration hurts more than it helps!  But wait....56% say it helps more than it hurts.

And the hits keep coming.  Read the whole thing.  For a Republican/Trumpkin to post that poll as some sort of triumph....well, it's a whole lot like this:

[lemonlime 5503]

Meanwhile

[Foosters 18144]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep, that fucking cracked me up.

Percent who think Dems are out of step -- 56.  Repubs out of step?  57.

How about this -- who is more influenced by special interests and lobbyists?  Dems, 31%....Repubs, 38%.

Maybe the questions on trade will look better?  Asked about trade barriers and tariffs, 25% said they will protect our jobs and help the economy!  Oh, but wait....49% said they will raise the cost of goods/hurt the economy.  Support for Trump's trade actions is at 26%! Oh, but opposition is at 53%.  Ouch.

At least you'll always have immigration as a winning issue!  31% say immigration hurts more than it helps!  But wait....56% say it helps more than it hurts.

And the hits keep coming.  Read the whole thing.  For a Republican/Trumpkin to post that poll as some sort of triumph....well, it's a whole lot like this:

Yeah, this poll is being shared all over the internet by conservatives.  

 

If the best poll you can find STILL shows the GOP trailing the DEMS, that might be a bad sign.

[Js1 86397]

1 minute ago, Foosters said:

Yeah, this poll is being shared all over the internet by conservatives.  

 

If the best poll you can find STILL shows the GOP trailing the DEMS, that might be a bad sign.

But you see, its a poll done by the FAKE NEWS MEDIA.  Therefore, the poll is wrong. 

Trump won BIGLY. So you have to take 57% and subtract all the fake non-biglyness and it's BIGLY less than 57%. Or something.

[seven 1368]

Someone needs to unskew this poll

[Js1 86397]

4 minutes ago, seven said:

Someone needs to unskew this poll

I've seen it unskewed.

Americans who find Democrats out of touch - 578%

Americans who find Never Trumpers out of touch - 300%

Americans who find Trump out of touch - 0%, Hail Hydra, they forgot to poll the Trump supporters, only RINOs.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Js1

[Aqua Buddha 14749]

3 hours ago, Stringer said:

 

That’s great now but where were these D voting fuckers in November 2016?

The election turned on these states.

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Way too many bought into the "both sides are the same" and voted for Jill fucking Stein or stayed home.

The base has figure out that elections do indeed matter (especially midterms) and the middle has realized that both parties are not the same.

 

[Gil Bang 26164]

 

[Gil Bang 26164]

Carville and Co. have been doing focus groups with "Disillusioned GOP Moderates".  

Interesting, IMO.

 

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1089/Dcor_GOP_Moderate Memo_7.27.2018_FOR RELEASE.pdf

[Js1 86397]

21 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Carville and Co. have been doing focus groups with "Disillusioned GOP Moderates".  

Interesting, IMO.

 

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1089/Dcor_GOP_Moderate Memo_7.27.2018_FOR RELEASE.pdf

Dems are going to blow it again by pandering to disillusioned GOP moderates, further giving their base a “why should I turn out? the democrats refuse to represent progressive politics” excuse. 

[tantric superman 4668]

I think the 2018 midterms should focus on electing people anyone who isn't pro-trump. Dems can have a drawn out progressive debate after that.

[Gil Bang 26164]

4 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I think the 2018 midterms should focus on electing people anyone who isn't pro-trump. Dems can have a drawn out progressive debate after that.

Nail/hammer, etc.

[Js1 86397]

By virtue of not being elected Republicans, they’re already not pro-Trump. So they should be focused on their base since apparently these disillusioned republicans will vote for them regardless. As you say. 

[Gil Bang 26164]

you're high.  A moderate democrat is going to be a lot more easily digested to a moderate pub.  I'd rather have a moderate dem than no dem at all.  I'm fucking thrilled to have Doug Jones in AL, but I'd never in a million years want him as California's Senator. 

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

We have a bunch of people that vote R at least some of the time making a turn to the left. Let’s not run them off with candidates so far to the left that they aren’t palatable to these types. Stopping the right wing hate machine running our government with moderate dems is plenty good enough for now. 

[SubliminalHorn 6968]

Republicans vote for anyone with an R no matter what, and they control everything right now. Liberals and Democrats have to be principled, but they have lost bigly. Time to just fucking take every vote they can. Iron out the details later. Stop the fucking traitors from fucking up more shit. 

[RayDog 682]

13 hours ago, Stringer said:

 

That’s great now but where were these D voting fuckers in November 2016?

The election turned on these states.

These were among the states that swung toward Trump as opposed to Romney more strongly than average (listed below with the R-D percentage difference between 2016 and 2012), and I think we are seeing the pendulum swing back even harder. In some cases, using the 2016 results as the standard of what to expect in 2018 could be way off as perhaps 2012 is more reflective of a state's true voter base. Not only are there a lot of rust belt states on this list, there are a number of key senate races that will be determined by how severely the electorate swings back toward the 2012 ratios.

New Hampshire     5.2%
New York     5.5
Alabama     5.8
Tennessee     5.8
Minnesota     6.1
Pennsylvania     6.1
Mississippi     6.3
Wyoming        6.8
Montana     6.9
Delaware     7.1
Kentucky     7.1
Vermont     7.1
Wisconsin    7.7
Indiana     9.1
Missouri     9.3
Michigan     9.7
Hawaii         10.5
Ohio         11.1
Rhode Island    11.7
South Dakota     11.8
Maine         12.3
Iowa         15.3
West Virginia    15.4
North Dakota     16.8

 

 

[Tuco 5089]

Primaries are pretty much over. The candidates are selected. This is the army we’re going to battle with. The DNC should focus on getting them the funding and support they need. Discussions of moderate or progressive are academic at this point.

But, to add onto the academic debate. I voted for the moderate candidate for Congress in the primary, who was already being fed national party resources, because I thought he’d have the better shot in a reddish district. But I think I was wrong. He was a lazy campaigner and has pretty much sulked since his loss. The primary is a test about who can connect better with their district. He wasn’t connecting well, and I’m not sure he would have in the general. I think in this climate, disillusioned Republicans and moderate Democrats are more likely to vote for a progressive -which is less objectionable than Trumpism- than a progressive Dem is to vote for a nominal Democrat who they can’t distinguish from a Republican.

[Buzzrock 15076]

Way too many bought into the "both sides are the same" and voted for Jill fucking Stein or stayed home.

Sorry but your team sucks too.

[Buzzrock 15076]

We have a bunch of people that vote R at least some of the time making a turn to the left. Let’s not run them off with candidates so far to the left that they aren’t palatable to these types. Stopping the right wing hate machine running our government with moderate dems is plenty good enough for now. 

Isn’t the number 8 million people who voted for Obama twice and then Trump?

[Pancho 45941]

 

Running for GA governor

[Brisketexan 106292]

 
Running for GA governor

Stacy is my wife’s LBJ school classmate. She kicks serious ass.

[Brisketexan 106292]

Double post

[Ghost of LL 15651]

Primaries are pretty much over. The candidates are selected. This is the army we’re going to battle with. The DNC should focus on getting them the funding and support they need. Discussions of moderate or progressive are academic at this point.

But, to add onto the academic debate. I voted for the moderate candidate for Congress in the primary, who was already being fed national party resources, because I thought he’d have the better shot in a reddish district. But I think I was wrong. He was a lazy campaigner and has pretty much sulked since his loss. The primary is a test about who can connect better with their district. He wasn’t connecting well, and I’m not sure he would have in the general. I think in this climate, disillusioned Republicans and moderate Democrats are more likely to vote for a progressive -which is less objectionable than Trumpism- than a progressive Dem is to vote for a nominal Democrat who they can’t distinguish from a Republican.

You vote for Ed Meier in TX32?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tuco 5089]

5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

You vote for Ed Meier in TX32?

 

Brad Ashford, NE-2.  He won the seat in 2014, when the GOP was going through a bit of internal bickering.  Lost in 2016.  Obama did win the district in 2008, but it was redistricted after the census to make it redder. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

I think another side effect of trump’s total control of the party is that ultimately fewer people will identify as republicans, which is a big thing for voters. It is that first step “maybe I’m not totally a republican?” that is hardest to get to changing voting habits.  Trump’s complete domination of the party — Trump equals Republican, Republican equals Trump, no room for dissent — will push a good number in that first step.  

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

On 7/27/2018 at 9:05 PM, Larry T. Spider said:

We have a bunch of people that vote R at least some of the time making a turn to the left. Let’s not run them off with candidates so far to the left that they aren’t palatable to these types. Stopping the right wing hate machine running our government with moderate dems is plenty good enough for now. 

Dems did this with HRC and enough of the very enthusiastic Bernie folks stayed home or voted for an independent and the Dems lost. And it was lost in the Blue collar states that Bernie won or was very close in. I think older Dems are conditioned by Dukakis, and the like, that a left of center can't win. But those voters, who are controlling the party, are also all over 50 now.  While it may not work on winning local traditional red districts it could likely work on the state and federal level.

Edited July 30, 2018 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[RayDog 682]

I clicked on a Bannon interview with Hannity on youtube as his main point is that the midterm is a referendum on Trump in his mind. But what I found interesting is he was begging Trump supporters yo vote for Rinos rather than abstain from voting. He seemed fearful about how many seats the Republicans could lose.

PEW is reporting that the percentage of Republicans has fallen from 29% to 26%.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

10 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Dems did this with HRC and enough of the very enthusiastic Bernie folks stayed home or voted for an independent and the Dems lost. And it was lost in the Blue collar states that Bernie won or was very close in. I think older Dems are conditioned by Dukakis, and the like, that a left of center can't win. But those voters, who are controlling the party, are also all over 50 now.  While it may not work on winning local traditional red districts it could likely work on the state and federal level.

You are equating all centrist dems to HRC. She had much more baggage and higher negatives due to being in the public spotlight for so many years. Your average centrist dem with a personality would curb stomp trump in the next election. Going far left will help the turn out of die hard libs but that’s about it. 

[HenryJames 66843]

Republics candidate for Congress in Virginia likes Sasquatch porn. 

[bad_teammate 13451]

On 7/27/2018 at 8:05 PM, Larry T. Spider said:

We have a bunch of people that vote R at least some of the time making a turn to the left. Let’s not run them off with candidates so far to the left that they aren’t palatable to these types. Stopping the right wing hate machine running our government with moderate dems is plenty good enough for now. 

[Stringer 1484]

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think another side effect of trump’s total control of the party is that ultimately fewer people will identify as republicans, which is a big thing for voters. It is that first step “maybe I’m not totally a republican?” that is hardest to get to changing voting habits.  Trump’s complete domination of the party — Trump equals Republican, Republican equals Trump, no room for dissent — will push a good number in that first step.  

Hand up.  This is me.  

[Message Board User 12399]

18 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Republics candidate for Congress in Virginia likes Sasquatch porn. 

 

[retread 2951]

 

[bad_teammate 13451]

Who amongst us hasn't fantasized about the Sasquatch's glorious hog? Let he who has not honked it to lurid visions of the Man of the Mountain cast the first stone.

Edited July 30, 2018 by bad_teammate

[bad_teammate 13451]

This guy fucking rules. Leslie is wrong to kinkshame this hero.

 

[bad_teammate 13451]

2018 is the worst year and the best year