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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13490

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What's going on with the Florida senate race?   Scott looks to have a slim lead, but I wonder why.  He always struggled to win his gubernatorial races, and Nelson has had a relatively easy time winning the Senate in the past.  And when you add the unpopularity of Trump, you would think Nelson would have a comfortable lead.  Is Scott's wealth the main factor?

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Js1

Js1 85223

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What's going on with the Florida senate race?   Scott looks to have a slim lead, but I wonder why.  He always struggled to win his gubernatorial races, and Nelson has had a relatively easy time winning the Senate in the past.  And when you add the unpopularity of Trump, you would think Nelson would have a comfortable lead.  Is Scott's wealth the main factor?

Scott has already laid down like $20 million in ads.  He's also a "popular" 2-term incumbent governor.  Nelson is sort of the backbench senior Senator for Florida who is overshadowed by Rubio.   Actually, the fact that Scott is below 50 as a popular 2-term incumbent governor where Nelson hasn't even started with ads (Florida is expensive AF media market) isn't that great for him.  Incumbent Senators just don't lose when their party is out of power.

Remember, Obama won Florida by less than 100,00 votes. Nelson won by 1.1 million. 

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From a long way out Nelson appeared to be vulnerable, with some earlier polls showing Mack leading. However, in the last few weeks with new polls conducted it appeared as though Nelson was headed for a victory. The last poll place him 5 percentage points ahead of Mack. In fact Nelson would win easily by 13 percentage points.

 

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Js1

Js1 85223

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

And he's in that chair because he was a pro rodeo  bronc rider and took a horrible spill. 

But did he sue the rodeo for $10 million and then become a politician and cap punitive damages at 7.5% of the amount he got for similar people in the future? Because if not, he did it wrong.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14581

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What's going on with the Florida senate race?   Scott looks to have a slim lead, but I wonder why.  He always struggled to win his gubernatorial races, and Nelson has had a relatively easy time winning the Senate in the past.  And when you add the unpopularity of Trump, you would think Nelson would have a comfortable lead.  Is Scott's wealth the main factor?

Florida has shifted more Republican in recent years as old whites have retired and moved there.

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kevwun

kevwun 15746

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

But did he sue the rodeo for $10 million and then become a politician and cap punitive damages at 7.5% of the amount he got for similar people in the future? Because if not, he did it wrong.

I wish that Live Oak would run for governor so I could vote for it.

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32379

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Like this is a surprise.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-want-russia-influence-us-elections-202847050.html

 

Quote

American intelligence officials say Russia is still trying to interfere with U.S. elections, as the November midterms approach. And Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has said he prefers Donald Trump in the White House.

That’s okay with some Republicans, according to a Yahoo Finance/SurveyMonkey poll of 2,509 Americans conducted July 25-27. In the survey, 11% of people who identify as Republican or lean Republican say it’s “appropriate” for Russia to help Republicans keep control of Congress in the upcoming elections. Another 29% say it’s “not appropriate, but wouldn’t be a big deal” for the Russians to help. So combined, 40% of Republicans either approve of Russian interference, or don’t strongly object to it.

 

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15530

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5 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Like this is a surprise.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-want-russia-influence-us-elections-202847050.html

 

 

I'm not really worried about that, as only about a quarter of Americans identify as Republicans.  So by my count, that's only about 3% that say it'd be "appropriate" for Russia to help Republicans--that's a pretty low goddamned number.

But since Trump is really, really bad and math and stuff, let him see that and decide that's the route he should take.  If he comes out with a strong "yeah, so what" defense, he's going to get killed.

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Like this is a surprise.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-want-russia-influence-us-elections-202847050.html

 

 

And that's just the ones who admit it.  Many if not most of the rest may say they don't like it, but won't let a little thing like collusion with Russian spies affect their voting straight Trump. 

Edited by Mojo Hand
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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted
I'm not really worried about that, as only about a quarter of Americans identify as Republicans.  So by my count, that's only about 3% that say it'd be "appropriate" for Russia to help Republicans--that's a pretty low goddamned number.
But since Trump is really, really bad and math and stuff, let him see that and decide that's the route he should take.  If he comes out with a strong "yeah, so what" defense, he's going to get killed.


87% responded “Not sure. Is Hillary on the ballot?”
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45647

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not really worried about that, as only about a quarter of Americans identify as Republicans.  So by my count, that's only about 3% that say it'd be "appropriate" for Russia to help Republicans--that's a pretty low goddamned number.

But since Trump is really, really bad and math and stuff, let him see that and decide that's the route he should take.  If he comes out with a strong "yeah, so what" defense, he's going to get killed.

This

3 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

And that's just the ones who admit it.  Many if not most of the rest may say they don't like it, but won't let a little thing like collusion with Russian spies affect their voting straight Trump. 

But also this

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26374

Posted
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36 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Can we stop and focus on what’s really important here?

https://atlanta.eater.com/2018/5/8/17331478/georgia-governor-signs-sunday-brunch-bill

Mornings of angry-drunk male nurses and their best girl friends chattering like somebody beating a spoon in an aluminum pot. The Governor is unleashing hell.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104924

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

And if no clear winner, goes to a runoff, right?  Early returns have the Abbot-Patrick GOP favorite Flores ahead, but with only 32%.  The Dem candidates have over 60% of the votes, one of the two top ones will face him.  Seems like it will stay Dem?  I admit....I haven't followed this race closely, at all.

Uresti was a fucking slimebag, though.  Was fun to watch him go down.

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Js1

Js1 85223

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And if no clear winner, goes to a runoff, right?  Early returns have the Abbot-Patrick GOP favorite Flores ahead, but with only 32%.  The Dem candidates have over 60% of the votes, one of the two top ones will face him.  Seems like it will stay Dem?  I admit....I haven't followed this race closely, at all.

Uresti was a fucking slimebag, though.  Was fun to watch him go down.

Run off. Democrats combined for over 61% of the vote. Uresti only won with 56% in 2016. That’s a bit of a surge in D votes. 

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1746

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Posted

This is what our dumbass governor tweeted about it:

Whoa! This changes the narrative about mid-term special elections going to the Democrats. It’s different in Texas. Today, in an historically Democrat seat, Republican @PeteFlores_TX leads all Democrats in this special election. #txlege #tcot

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

Posted
Posted

Members of the Golden State GOP are trying to convince Trump to help local farmers with aid:

Quote

California GOP lawmakers lobby Trump to help farmers hurt by tariffs ...

10 hours ago - One week after Trump announced a $12 billion plan to soften the blow of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farmers, several Republican House members from California ...

While in other news, the state of California is having "reverse immigration" into the Mexican state of Baja California:

 

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kopp0e

kopp0e 1135

Posted
Posted

Here's an interesting article, should the United States & Canada, actually merge nations..?

Quote

Should the U.S. and Canada Merge? – The Pensive Post

Apr 17, 2018 - A merger between the United States and Canada might not be as crazy as it sounds. ... care, religion, government, and individuality, [Americans and Canadians] are ... about the sudden addition of 36 million left-leaning voters.

 

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Js1

Js1 85223

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

This is what our dumbass governor tweeted about it:

Whoa! This changes the narrative about mid-term special elections going to the Democrats. It’s different in Texas. Today, in an historically Democrat seat, Republican @PeteFlores_TX leads all Democrats in this special election. #txlege #tcot

Are we sure he’s not secretly an Aggy? Flores finishes first due to vote splitting by 2 major D candidates. Republicans still only managed ~40% of the voteshare. 

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Js1

Js1 85223

Posted
Posted

Ignoring what Abbott and the rest of Texas Conservatives are going on about on Twitter about a red wall (D-share was 3-4 points more than 2016 in SD19), a 3-4 point increase in SD19, which encompasses most of TX-23, plus the suburbs swinging away from Republicans, bodes poorly for poor aggy Will Hurd.  He's toast.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32830

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Posted
5 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Surprised at the big D drop for uneducated white women. Trumpism doesn’t seem to hold much appeal for any woman.  

Republican supporting non-degreed white women also dropped. Apparently lots of them just gave up on politics.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14581

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Republican supporting non-degreed white women also dropped. Apparently lots of them just gave up on politics.

I was also surprised on the drop for White Men -- College Degree.  It dropped equally for both parties.  Must be a lot of "Both Sides" in that camp.  Their wives, however, seem to disagree about "both sides."

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I was also surprised on the drop for White Men -- College Degree.  It dropped equally for both parties.  Must be a lot of "Both Sides" in that camp.  Their wives, however, seem to disagree about "both sides."

Yeah, although dems surpassed the GOP on white men with college degree in 2018, after a big gap in favor of the GOP.  

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I was also surprised on the drop for White Men -- College Degree.  It dropped equally for both parties.  Must be a lot of "Both Sides" in that camp.  Their wives, however, seem to disagree about "both sides."

Yeah but white educated men spiked D in 2016 and have largely maintained that move.   Still a big pro-Dem swing among them from pre-Trump. 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14581

Posted
Posted (edited)

Entire precincts flipped dramatically between 2012 and 2016, especially in the Midwest and Northeast.  Upscale white precincts that had been Republican for years became Democratic instantly and the reverse was true for downscale whites.  We don't see it much in this part of the country or in the South but it was a significant shift both ways in the Midwest and Northeast.

Edited by Aqua Buddha
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