2018 - Elections and Trends

[Js1 85,537]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

***SIREN: BREAKING: TRUMP to campaign in Ohio on Sat ahead of next week’s special House election. GOP fears rising.

That worked out well in Pennsylvania.

Final Monmouth poll of this race: (I see why GOP is flipping shit)

Likely voter model: Balderson (R) +1

Low turnout: Balderson +5

Dem surge: O'Connor (D) +1

This is an R+7 PVI.  ~6-8 point swing away from Republicans is going to crush them in November.

[Js1 85,537]

If every R+7 and below district swung to the Democrats from the Republican who holds it, it would be a House pickup of  ~72 seats.  Even HALF that is a romp.  I think @Ghost of LLis on the right track, Democrats could pick up 40-50 seats with the way these districts are trending. 

Edited August 1, 2018 by Js1

[Ghost of LL 15,539]

It’s going to be a little harder for Pete Sessions to close that gap with college-educated women after his comments revealed today. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas-politics/2018/08/01/pete-sessions-said-highland-park-man-killed-wife-unfair-democrats-pounced


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Celery Man 20,996]

10 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Republican supporting non-degreed white women also dropped. Apparently lots of them just gave up on politics.

too busy being beaten by their newly confident husbands

[Gil Bang 26,000]

10 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Every one except diamond and silk. 

Is a G.E.D. really a "degree"? 

[Chad Fuck 17,744]

Is a G.E.D. really a "degree"? 

Well it’s in the name so...

[Js1 85,537]

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Kochs & Soros axis of evil would be something to behold.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,522]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

Quote

“Some groups [Koch network]who claim to support conservatives forgo their commitment when they decide their business interests are more important than those of the country or Party,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel wrote in a memo to party contributors on Thursday afternoon. “This is unacceptable.”

While I disagree with a fair amount of Koch political interest, I actually find that they follow their principles even when it may align against their business interests, or if it has zero impact on their business.  Now much of their business usually fares well with their libertarian,small-govt views, but not always.

[Js1 85,537]

Party is capitalized.  Because fealty to the Party over country.

[Huckleberry 33,076]

Did Wulaw Horn ever make it over here? It was just after the election that there was a big discussion about the probability that Trump's election would destroy the Republican Party as it existed at the time. This right here is a major step in that eventuality, if it should really occur.

[atomheartbevo 89,780]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

GOP leadership just keeps fucking up, going back to when the GOP Chairwoman declared that the GOP was the Part of Trump.

Kochs are playing a very long game.  While it's a little late in 2018 to do much, it would be to their benefit to help make sure that long-term Republican incumbents that are siding with Trump lose either to a Democrat this year, or in the primaries in 2020.   Divide and conquer and all of that jazz, helps them to get their own folks in there.

For somebody like the Kochs, Trump could be a huge help in cleaning out the GOP.

Would be ironic if Trump drains the swamp by helping long-time Republicans lose their primary or general elections.

[RayDog 682]

The Kochs are too old to have a long game.

[atomheartbevo 89,780]

9 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The Kochs are too old to have a long game.

Some of the stuff they are doing dates back to their long-dead dad.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,522]

38 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The Kochs are too old to have a long game.

I can’t imagine they won’t have plans in place for long after they’re dead.  100+ billion can last a long time.

[Patrick Bateman 3,922]

Unsurprisingly, Bresden and Blackburn win their Senate primaries.

However, Pence's girl, Diane Black, a former Congresswoman was upset by businessman Bill Lee for the Pubs Gov nomination.

 

[EMAWesome 101]

Kane elected mayor of Knox County, Tennessee.  (I know it's Tennessee but are mayors of a whole county a common thing?  Every mayor I've ever heard of was just mayor of one particular town or city.)

 

https://www.cbssports.com/wwe/news/glenn-jacobs-better-known-as-wwe-star-kane-elected-mayor-of-knox-county-tennessee/

[Js1 85,537]

4 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Unsurprisingly, Bresden and Blackburn win their Senate primaries.

However, Pence's girl, Diane Black, a former Congresswoman was upset by businessman Bill Lee for the Pubs Gov nomination.

 

It’s never been a worse time to be a GOP Rep and try for Senate/Gov. Voters hate you so much, so they just destroy you in your primary. Happened in Indiana, WV, Tenn

[EMAWesome 101]

I can also understand why Jacobs won.  How can you vote against somebody who tombstone piledrivered Pete Rose?

[Js1 85,537]

This is cool.  Someone polled Maine-2 (Leans R) using the ranked-choice voting method available to Maine voters in November.

Poliquin (R-inc) 48
Golden (D) 47
Bond (I) 4
Hoar (I) 2

Hoar eliminated and votes reallocated:

Poliquin 48
Golden 48
Bond 4

Bond eliminated and votes reallocated:

Poliquin 49
Golden 51

[thrillhammer 684]

the republican party is going to gargle our balls in november.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,482]

Idaho GOP candidate uses Muslim slur on Facebook, says he did it to trigger debate on politics.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/election/article215660875.html

[Biff Tannen 45,714]

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

This is cool.  Someone polled Maine-2 (Leans R) using the ranked-choice voting method available to Maine voters in November.

Poliquin (R-inc) 48
Golden (D) 47
Bond (I) 4
Hoar (I) 2

Hoar eliminated and votes reallocated:

Poliquin 48
Golden 48
Bond 4

Bond eliminated and votes reallocated:

Poliquin 49
Golden 51

Makes too much sense.  Won't happen.

[Message Board User 12,396]

 

[Message Board User 12,396]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

17 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Dawnna Dukes territory. 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

31 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

The land of meth, dicks, and Jesus is going to elect a Democrat? Lulz

 

EDIT: Not being sarcastic

Edited August 4, 2018 by Calihorn

[atomheartbevo 89,780]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Not surprising. None of my Okie relatives like her, and she and other Republicans are being blamed for the education issues.  A lot of folks in those small towns know that if their little schools go away, those towns are finished.

[atomheartbevo 89,780]

2 hours ago, Calihorn said:

The land of meth, dicks, and Jesus is going to elect a Democrat? Lulz

EDIT: Not being sarcastic

Prior to the current Governor, the Okies had elected a Democrat.  For all of the jokes about them being the reddest state, the reality is they've been a Democrat state within the past decade - besides the previous Democratic Senator finishing his term in 2011, they had a Democratic Senate back in 2009 and a Democratic House back in 2005.

Kind of a dirty secret of their's, and we are starting to see smaller elections flipping back to the Dems.

[berlinerbaer 678]

Fivethirtyeight with an editors' roundtable on what constitutes a swing district this cycle. They see a growing battleground that isn't limited to suburban districts, but also includes Trumpy Midwestern districts. They expect Obama --> Trump voters in states like WI, OH, and PA to kill the GOP, while they seem less bullish on suburban districts outside the Midwest flipping.

 

[Skyline 325]

 

[Js1 85,537]

V interesting: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/what-august-ratings-can-tell-us-about-november-results

TLDR part 1:

2006 - in July, there were 14 R-held House seats that were rated toss-up.  By November, 38 were toss-up and 5 went from toss-up to lean/likely D (+29 seats moved; final tally was +30 for Democrats)

2010 - in July, there were 30 D-held seats that were toss-up and 6 D-held seats listed as lean/likely R. By November, 49 were tossup and 29 were lean/likely R (+42 seats moved; final tally was +63 for Republicans)

2018 - in July, there are 24 R-held seats that are toss-up and 10 R-held seats listed as lean/likely D.  By November - ???

 

TLDR part 2:

Trump's approval rating isn't going to get better/worse between now and November.

2006 Bush - July: 40%; November: 38%

2010 Obama - August: 44%; November: 45%

2018 Trump - August 40% 

[Gil Bang 26,000]

SPOTSYLVANIA, Va. — Democrat Abigail Spanberger stood on a wooden bench at a vineyard in central Virginia and railed against “the prioritization of ideology over informed decision-making” — a pointed jab at her opponent, House Freedom Caucus member Dave Brat.

Spanberger, a 38-year-old former CIA operative, has barnstormed this traditionally Republican stronghold accusing Brat of putting the Freedom Caucus’ intransigent conservative politics over the needs of constituents, and pitching herself as a pragmatist who could represent them better.

“We need people in Washington who are committed to creating legislation that’s actually impacting communities rather than guided by Republican ideology,” Spanberger said in an interview.

Brat is one of two high-profile Freedom Caucus members at risk of losing their seats this fall to a potential Democratic wave. It's an unfamiliar feeling for members of the hard-line group, whose typically comfortable electoral positions have emboldened them to push a far-right platform.

Brat and Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania were elected in the throes of the tea party backlash against then-President Barack Obama — Brat staged a shocking upset against Eric Cantor, the No. 2 House Republican leader — but are now fighting to survive a very different kind of backlash against the current president. Their politics — and shifting makeup of their districts spurred by redistricting — are providing ample fodder for Democratic challengers.

Perry’s Democratic opponent George Scott has held up the incumbent’s push to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein as proof that he’s an extremist unfit to represent the district. Scott, a pastor political novice who wants to join the bipartisan “Problem Solvers Caucus,” said Perry’s support for an impeachment bid “that was repudiated by Speaker [Paul] Ryan says a lot [about] how far that particular group is swinging.”

“We can’t just continue the path of demonizing the opposition,” he said. “We have to make progress in a bipartisan way.”

 

ADVERTISING

Sign up here for POLITICO Huddle

A daily play-by-play of congressional news in your inbox.

EmailSign Up

By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.

Brat’s seat has been in GOP hands since the 1970s. But the Cook Political Report has downgraded the seat from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” to, now, “toss-up.” Spanberger has outraised Brat every quarter since entering the race. And some senior House and Virginia Republicans worry Brat is in jeopardy.

“I think everybody should be concerned about the race,” said former Virginia Republican Party Chairman John Whitbeck, who predicted Brat will survive if he runs a good campaign. “He needs to run as hard as he can.”

The campaigns of Perry and Brat did not answer multiple requests for comment or an interview. Brat texted that “I don’t like being part of stories with a false premise from the start,” though he declined to elaborate.

But it's clear the two men have adopted very different campaign strategies.

Brat, a former economics professor who’s railed against leadership in the past, has softened his tone lately, mending his previously fraught relationship with senior Republicans in a way that’s caught their attention. One top Republican was shocked when Brat broke with Freedom Caucus members and voted to allow consideration of a massive spending bill on the House floor. (He ultimately opposed the measure.)

Brat has also steered clear of the Freedom Caucus leadership’s push to impeach Rosenstein, focusing instead on legislation he’s passed that affects his district. The congressman frequently talks up the GOP’s tax reform package as well as his work on opioids and human trafficking.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) have returned the favor for Brat by helping him raise money. And the National Republican Congressional Committee, which rarely helps conservatives who fail to pay their "dues" to the election arm, is helping Brat strategize and analyze election data.

“We stand squarely behind Dave Brat,” NRCC spokesman Matt Gorman said, declining to say whether Brat is paying his annual fees to the campaign arm.

Perry, in his race, has stuck with his usual fiery rhetoric, even though his seat is now on Democrats’ radar. GOP leadership sources were surprised when he refused to back a farm bill because he believed it defies conservative values, despite the benefits to his district. And they say he’s made little attempt to shroud his scorn for leadership’s immigration plans or the idea of supporting Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, known as a center-right dealmaker, for speaker.

Insiders chalk up the difference in their approaches to the circumstances of their races. Brat faces a steeper challenge than Perry, whose home turf still leans heavily Republican. Due to 2016 redistricting by the courts, Brat lost conservative Hanover County and gained more suburban neighborhoods outside Richmond.

CONGRESS

‘There’s a deal to be had’: Graham could revive immigration reform as chairman

 

By BURGESS EVERETT and ELANA SCHOR

Due in part to the change, Trump carried Brat's district by a bare majority in 2016, compared to the 56 percent Mitt Romney garnered four years earlier, according to Cook.

Perry, however, has also lost part of his stronghold in southern Pennsylvania. His newly-drawn map now includes Dauphin County, which went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and tens of thousands of voters from the district represented by retired moderate Republican Rep. Charlie Dent.

It’s one of the reasons Scott argues that he has a real shot taking down a man many in the House view as a future Freedom Caucus chairman. Scott said his campaign's internal polling shows him within striking range.

Cumberland County Republican Chairman Greg Rothmans scoffed at the suggestion that a Democrat could oust Perry. While Perry has a new district, Republicans in the area know him well from his time in the state house, Rothman said. And those who voted for Dent, he said, wouldn’t distinguish between the two men.

“Republicans are Republicans,” he said. “Scott Perry is very popular here.”

Not all Perry fans are so sure, however. Adams County Republican Chairwoman Betsy Hower, a longtime Perry supporter whose locality was cut out of his district, said Perry just lost a huge chunk of his base in the latest court-ordered redistricting.

“He has a brand new district, and when you start out with a brand new district and nobody knows you, it’s not easy,” Hower said.

Meanwhile in Virginia, more than 70 people showed up to meet Brat’s opponent at the Wilderness Run Farm winery on Thursday night. It was one of more than 110 community events Spanberger said she has hosted in recent months. Brat, by contrast, has not held a town hall meeting in over a year, and Spanberger accused him of “not making himself available to everyday voters.”

Brat made headlines last year when he complained to a conservative group that liberal women were dogging him.

CONGRESS

Not The Onion: Congress set to pass bills

 

By BURGESS EVERETT

“Since Obamacare and these issues have come up, the women are in my grill no matter where I go,” Brat said back then. “They come up — ‘When is your next town hall?’ And believe me, it’s not to give positive input.”

“It is absolutely the criticism that Brat levied against Cantor, which is he’s disconnected, he’s not here, and that he was out of touch with the district,” Spanberger said. “I absolutely think Brat has fallen into that same pattern."

Brat’s office and allies have rejected that claim, however, pointing to his “mobile office hours.” Under the new system, constituents are invited to sign up to meet with him one-on-one for 10 minutes. The meetings, his supporters argue, are more productive than public events that inevitably are filibustered by progressive activists.

Republicans also argue that Brat easily carried his district after the last 2016 redistricting. They also note that failed 2017 GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie carried Brat’s in the midst of the GOP’s repeated failure to repeal Obamacare and well before tax reform had passed. If the base turned out then, they’ll turn out now, they say.

“Brat is taking his race seriously and that’s what we want to see, someone invested and not falling asleep at the wheel,” said one Republican campaign source monitoring the race closely.

But few at the vineyard, an event was packed with Democrats, felt that way. Vietnam veteran and former business executive Bill Shugarts complained that Brat “doesn’t listen,” while retired couple John and Cathy Romine, both independents, railed about Brat being too close with “mean-spirited” Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan, the Freedom Caucus leaders.

“He’s way too conservative,” Cathy said of Brat. “Extremes are never correct. We need more middle of the road people.”

[Biff Tannen 45,714]

5 hours ago, Skyline said:

 

How is there any % of Dems who approve of this assclown?  How is that possibly not 0%?

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

How is there any % of Dems who approve of this assclown?  How is that possibly not 0%?

There are always contrarians who make themselves feel smart by going against everyone else.

[Orca of Peace 109]

the fractured R party will heal after Trump. Educated white men and women will return (those who switched or were disinterested in politics)  - after the rapey sexist xenophobe is gone forever. If they get a more reasonable gentlemanly person, they're back in business. 

Edited August 5, 2018 by Orca of Peace

[GSU&UT 1,798]

1 hour ago, Orca of Peace said:

the fractured R party will heal after Trump. Educated white men and women will return (those who switched or were disinterested in politics)  - after the rapey sexist xenophobe is gone forever. If they get a more reasonable gentlemanly person, they're back in business. 

The party is going to have to die a horrible painful death for that to happen. Every fellow college educated white guy I know around my age isn't exactly pining for the good ole only subtly racist GOP.

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

I don’t know how the republicans find a guy that can appease the college educated, suburban, white, male voter and Cletus the toothless meth addict, trump supporter. There were enough of the former that held their nose and voted for trump. I don’t know if that will always be the case.

[Orca of Peace 109]

7 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I don’t know how the republicans find a guy that can appease the college educated, suburban, white, male voter and Cletus the toothless meth addict, trump supporter. There were enough of the former that held their nose and voted for trump. I don’t know if that will always be the case.

do you think W was a  racist and sexist? Trump is such a sociopath that it's hard to cling to his tail for too long, even eating his own allies in Congress. In comparison, W looked like an eloquent affable uniter. 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

The inherent problem with reforming the Republican Party is years of feeding the worker bees of the base a steady diet of...how shall I characterize Ailes and Atwater? Is Fox News part of the reform otherwise it is a pointless discussion?

[kopp0e 1,135]

Neither party seems too risk adverse to losing it's core, just as millions fight to keep a roof over head/ car for trips, or even a merger of the 2 just to survive:

 

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

26 minutes ago, Orca of Peace said:

do you think W was a  racist and sexist? Trump is such a sociopath that it's hard to cling to his tail for too long, even eating his own allies in Congress. In comparison, W looked like an eloquent affable uniter. 

The Republican base is very different now than under W. 

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

27 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

Neither party seems too risk adverse to losing it's core, just as millions fight to keep a roof over head/ car for trips, or even a merger of the 2 just to survive:

 

I drive for Uber part time but know plenty of full time guys like this. Not sure when that piece is from but Uber now limits the number of hours a driver can go without taking a break. Most just switch between the apps when one locks them out. There is a waiting area for drivers at the airport where many sleep while waiting for a ride. The rate in Austin has gone from $1.85 a mile to $1.10, with Uber taking 25% of that. Then you have to factor in gas, maintenance, and self employment taxes. The desperate people now have to log many more miles if they are trying to do this full time. I would honestly work a low wage full time job and drive on the side of that was the situation I was in but some guys like the hustle.

[Gengs1 2,583]

13 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The Republican base is very different now than under W. 

No they are not, they are just following their leaders actions, they did the same for W, defending everything. The way trump acts they do as well.

i remember the R saying that they want a president who they can have a beer with and Gore was too smart. Now they want a full retard and run the country like a business

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

No, the actual people are different. There is plenty of evidence to support this. Trump has brought people in that have never or rarely voted Republican in their life. He has also lost certain segments of the traditional republican base. We don’t know if things will go back to normal when he’s gone or if this is the new normal.

[Gengs1 2,583]

6 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I drive for Uber part time but know plenty of full time guys like this. Not sure when that piece is from but Uber now limits the number of hours a driver can go without taking a break. Most just switch between the apps when one locks them out. There is a waiting area for drivers at the airport where many sleep while waiting for a ride. The rate in Austin has gone from $1.85 a mile to $1.10, with Uber taking 25% of that. Then you have to factor in gas, maintenance, and self employment taxes. The desperate people now have to log many more miles if they are trying to do this full time. I would honestly work a low wage full time job and drive on the side of that was the situation I was in but some guys like the hustle.

Uber did the whole lets introduce crack and get them hooked approach. When they started people were making 1500-2000 a week on it and once they killed the competition, they lowered the rates so your actually working for less then minimum wage and flicking up the roads so tax payers will pay for it.

[Gengs1 2,583]

7 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

No, the actual people are different. There is plenty of evidence to support this. Trump has brought people in that have never or rarely voted Republican in their life. He has also lost certain segments of the traditional republican base. We don’t know if things will go back to normal when he’s gone or if this is the new normal.

That is true, what I am saying is that it was always in them, trump just made it normal and acceptable behavior to act that way without saying its wrong, the rest of the Rs just burry their heads in the sand and won't say anything. 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

17 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

No, the actual people are different. There is plenty of evidence to support this. Trump has brought people in that have never or rarely voted Republican in their life. He has also lost certain segments of the traditional republican base. We don’t know if things will go back to normal when he’s gone or if this is the new normal.

These folks?

 

[atomheartbevo 89,780]

23 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

No, the actual people are different. There is plenty of evidence to support this. Trump has brought people in that have never or rarely voted Republican in their life. He has also lost certain segments of the traditional republican base. We don’t know if things will go back to normal when he’s gone or if this is the new normal.

Somebody born in 1945 would be hitting 65 in 2010.  Not a coincidence that the GOP has changed up a bit in the 8 years from Bush to Trump.  Those folks are retiring, looking at another few decades in this earth, and are scared shitless of many things.

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somebody born in 1945 would be hitting 65 in 2010.  Not a coincidence that the GOP has changed up a bit in the 8 years from Bush to Trump.  Those folks are retiring, looking at another few decades in this earth, and are scared shitless of many things.

Don’t discount the Fox News effect on these people.