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2018 - Elections and Trends


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Establishment Dems are terrified and trying desperately to eat their own.

The man AOC beat in NYC chose to stay on the ballot as a 3rd party candidate in an attempt to split the left vote and let a Republican win so a leftist wouldn't.

Andrew Cuomo and his Lt. Gov candidate are running actual attack ads against their primary challengers from the left.

The Democratic establishment is bound and determined to throw this mid-term away.

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48 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

No, the actual people are different. There is plenty of evidence to support this. Trump has brought people in that have never or rarely voted Republican in their life. He has also lost certain segments of the traditional republican base. We don’t know if things will go back to normal when he’s gone or if this is the new normal.

i'm saying it will go back to "normal" whatever that is. Even the Dem base changes, everything changes in 10 years. But the main point is when these Rudolph Hess cabal guys leave, it's going to be your father's Oldsmobile. 

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31 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Establishment Dems are terrified and trying desperately to eat their own.

The man AOC beat in NYC chose to stay on the ballot as a 3rd party candidate in an attempt to split the left vote and let a Republican win so a leftist wouldn't.

Andrew Cuomo and his Lt. Gov candidate are running actual attack ads against their primary challengers from the left.

The Democratic establishment is bound and determined to throw this mid-term away.

Kathy is telling the tooth.

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1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I drive for Uber part time but know plenty of full time guys like this. Not sure when that piece is from but Uber now limits the number of hours a driver can go without taking a break. Most just switch between the apps when one locks them out. There is a waiting area for drivers at the airport where many sleep while waiting for a ride. The rate in Austin has gone from $1.85 a mile to $1.10, with Uber taking 25% of that. Then you have to factor in gas, maintenance, and self employment taxes. The desperate people now have to log many more miles if they are trying to do this full time. I would honestly work a low wage full time job and drive on the side of that was the situation I was in but some guys like the hustle.

The way this world works now...

 It's apparent no one will be able to survive in a changing economic & political climate that the "four" parties are shoving down our collective windpipes... Why do I say 4, well we have democrat against "liberal" & republican against "conservative", while the "common voter" is some amalgamation of thoughts in between all of those "options"...

What is sad is that many are now struggling just to be in poverty...

I tell my 19 year old daughter all the time "You must have a trade to facilitate an adequate earning, just to help pay for your studies in whatever career you choose in college"... My goal, God willing as a single father I hope to save up enough money to someday attain psychology accreditation hours from 3 universities: (I have attended UCO in Edmond)

Oklahoma- I grew up in the Sooner State/ Texas- I have a deep respect for the culture of the Lone Star State/ Arizona State- I am in the process of moving to the Copper State...

My ramble was long, so forgive me, but my point is we have to work twice as hard to get half as far in the divisive culture of today...

But, I have put aside my wants as a person to put my kid 1st, paying for private school when it was hard to make ends meet, but it has put her in position to excel farther than I at her age, and that is the reason we all as parents strive to better ourselves, just for them...

 

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12 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Establishment Dems are terrified and trying desperately to eat their own.

The man AOC beat in NYC chose to stay on the ballot as a 3rd party candidate in an attempt to split the left vote and let a Republican win so a leftist wouldn't.

Andrew Cuomo and his Lt. Gov candidate are running actual attack ads against their primary challengers from the left.

The Democratic establishment is bound and determined to throw this mid-term away.

Crowley didnt choose anything. He has to either die or move out of the state to vacate the WFP, or any other, nomination. She needs to take it up with the state, or just shut the fuck up before she makes his name recognizable. Right now, straight D voters will get her through the general easily if she doesnt fuck it up and publicize his name.

The WFP solution is for him to move his residence to Virginia.  How's that for disenfranchisement? You want to take away the man's right to vote in the state of NY in the general?

As for Cuomo, of course he will win.  I like Nixon, but I will never vote for a TV star with no prior political experience for Governor. You will just end up with shit like Trump.  Progressives shouldn't be running celebrities at all, and if they do run, they need to start with smaller offices.  There are multiple progressives on NYC city council and in state govt who would be far better candidates than Nixon.

Edited by FondrenRoad
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12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kathy is telling the tooth.

Sure, but the framing is the attack part. He tried at business and it failed, ruining him personally. There's a frame for that story that is sympathetic to the plight and struggle of small business owners. Then there's what the fucking Dems do.

19 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Crowley didnt choose anything. He has to either die or move out of the state to vacate the WFP, or any other, nomination.

Completely untrue.

What does the Director of the WFP know?

WFP state director Bill Lipton said Crowley refused to vacate the line he won in New York’s 14th Congressional District.

"It is disappointing that Crowley has refused to vacate the Working Families Party ballot line. He chose not to show Ocasio-Cortez and the WFP respect by allowing us to put Ocasio-Cortez on our ballot line," Lipton said in a statement to The Hill.

Quote

The WFP solution is for him to move his residence to Virginia.  How's that for disenfranchisement? You want to take away the man's right to vote in the state of NY in the general?

You're completely full of shit.

In Mr. Crowley’s case, vacating the line is not that simple. The Working Families Party must go through a convoluted legal maneuver, essentially nominating the unwanted primary winner for another electoral position on the ballot — often one that he or she has little chance of winning, like a county clerkship in a region of the state dominated by the other party.

Crowley COULD vacate the way it is always done. He is choosing not to.

Quote

As for Cuomo, of course he will win.  I like Nixon, but I will never vote for a TV star with no prior political experience for Governor. You will just end up with shit like Trump.  Progressives shouldn't be running celebrities at all, and if they do run, they need to start with smaller offices.  There are multiple progressives on NYC city council and in state govt who would be far better candidates than Nixon.

You have an interesting habit of attacking progressive candidates.

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29 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Sure, but the framing is the attack part. He tried at business and it failed, ruining him personally. There's a frame for that story that is sympathetic to the plight and struggle of small business owners. Then there's what the fucking Dems do.

Completely untrue.

What does the Director of the WFP know?

WFP state director Bill Lipton said Crowley refused to vacate the line he won in New York’s 14th Congressional District.

"It is disappointing that Crowley has refused to vacate the Working Families Party ballot line. He chose not to show Ocasio-Cortez and the WFP respect by allowing us to put Ocasio-Cortez on our ballot line," Lipton said in a statement to The Hill.

You're completely full of shit.

In Mr. Crowley’s case, vacating the line is not that simple. The Working Families Party must go through a convoluted legal maneuver, essentially nominating the unwanted primary winner for another electoral position on the ballot — often one that he or she has little chance of winning, like a county clerkship in a region of the state dominated by the other party.

Crowley COULD vacate the way it is always done. He is choosing not to.

You have an interesting habit of attacking progressive candidates.

The way its "always done" huh? Okay, identify 5 instances of this occurring before. Or even 1.  Usually, these bullshit parties wait til after the real primaries select their candidates for just this reason. Thats the way it's actually "always done." And since WFP didnt do that this time, they and you believe they should nominate him for a position that his residence makes him ineligible for in another part of the state where he doesn't reside? So you would force him to move his residence upstate rather than Virginia. Making him ineligible to vote in city elections or even to vote for O-C in the general. Again. Disenfranchisement. 

The law sucks. Change the law. Dont disenfranchise voters. 

In the interim, it would be better if WFP simply dissolved since its completely useless, dont you think?  Same with all the tagalong parties in NY that never actually run their own candidates. If they want to just rubber stamp the Dem nominee, they shouldn't be on the ballot in the first place. 

And what progressive candidates am I attacking? I attack you because you fucking suck. I voted for O-C. I'm simply defending Crowley against this dumb attack. You should really stay the fuck away from candidates you like. You do them a disservice. 

I dont count Nixon as progressive. Shes celebrity elite.  I'm against that entirely. Id prefer a real progressive to Cuomo for sure. 

Your real problem is that you consider progressive candidates, and OC in particular, completely infallible.  They are far from perfect and should be critiqued where they arent. Just like everyone else. Quit hero worshipping. We are electing people to govern. 

Edited by FondrenRoad
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Can't just admit you were completely fucking wrong about saying, "He has to either die or move out of the state to vacate the WFP"

Gotta bluster. Gotta triple down on the bullshit.

He can run for other office in NY and not risk splitting up the ballot, but he's not. He doesn't have to die or move out of state.

Keep bullshitting.

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46 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Can't just admit you were completely fucking wrong about saying, "He has to either die or move out of the state to vacate the WFP"

Gotta bluster. Gotta triple down on the bullshit.

He can run for other office in NY and not risk splitting up the ballot, but he's not. He doesn't have to die or move out of state.

Keep bullshitting.

It's no wonder progressives fail in Texas. You're a horrible fucking ambassador. 

Read the fucking article you posted. They want to nominate him for a position like clerk in a Republican safe area. He doesnt live in a Republican safe area.  He would have to change his residence.  Again, you are calling for outright disenfranchisement of a voter. Crowley called it election fraud because it is and would be. 

Also, you cant find other examples of it being "always done" like this because it isnt. WFP and other bullshit parties usually wait til after the primaries to pick their horse. They jumped the gun. That's their fault, not his.  They also did it again by "endorsing" Nixon now instead of waiting.  That's the other thing, comrade, they are your dream party. A socialist party that appoints candidates rather than elects them. 

Just shut the fuck up and let the Dem win. Your infallible hero is on the Dem ticket, not the progressive ticket. Let the party work for you for once. All she is doing is making his name known. 

Or you know, God forbid, she could step foot in her district again and win the general easily.  I know you want her to run around the country being your hero, but she needs to be the representative of her district first and foremost.  Shes been completely gone since the primary. Time for her to come back. 

Also here's another article for you about Virginia, Virginia. 

http://gothamist.com/2018/07/12/joe_crowley_ocasio_cortez.php

"The Working Families Party is now calling on Crowley to register to vote in Virginia in order to take himself off the ballot line, but a spokesperson for Crowley says the congressman finds that suggestion "unacceptable," NBC News reports."

Edited by FondrenRoad
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47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The two of you fighting over this one specific race for weeks is annoying AF. 

Just make out already or something. JFC. 

Apologies. Someone mentions a shitty NYC Dem and he comes charging in like the fucking bat signal was lit. I wasn't even talking to him.

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On 8/3/2018 at 11:11 AM, Js1 said:

This is cool.  Someone polled Maine-2 (Leans R) using the ranked-choice voting method available to Maine voters in November.

Poliquin (R-inc) 48
Golden (D) 47
Bond (I) 4
Hoar (I) 2

Hoar eliminated and votes reallocated:

Poliquin 48
Golden 48
Bond 4

Bond eliminated and votes reallocated:

Poliquin 49
Golden 51

Holy shit. I didn't know instant runoffs had been done anywhere. Should be the law of the land.

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The podcast for Emerson Polling said they're going to release their OH-12 poll (election is tomorrow).  They have the Democrat up +1 and the Democrats +10% in enthusiasm.

Would be a disaster for Republicans.

Edit:

R+14 so anything less than a 7-point win for the Republican would forecast a huge wave - R+1 (which is sort of the CW of this race) still portends 30-40 seats for the Democrats.

Edited by Js1
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15 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Apologies. Someone mentions a shitty NYC Dem and he comes charging in like the fucking bat signal was lit. I wasn't even talking to him.

Perhaps if you weren't wrong about everything you ever post regarding NYC and NYS politics, I wouldn't charge in. By all means, let's talk about your congressional district race then. Sorry you have nobody to worship there.

Edited by FondrenRoad
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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

The podcast for Emerson Polling said they're going to release their OH-12 poll (election is tomorrow).  They have the Democrat up +1 and the Democrats +10% in enthusiasm.

Would be a disaster for Republicans.

Edit:

R+14 so anything less than a 7-point win for the Republican would forecast a huge wave - R+1 (which is sort of the CW of this race) still portends 30-40 seats for the Democrats.

This.  A D win portends 30-40 is the floor.  The GOP is all over the Columbus media market on this race with a "Stop Pelosi" message,  Local GOP voters know what's at stake.

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

The podcast for Emerson Polling said they're going to release their OH-12 poll (election is tomorrow).  They have the Democrat up +1 and the Democrats +10% in enthusiasm.

Would be a disaster for Republicans.

Edit:

R+14 so anything less than a 7-point win for the Republican would forecast a huge wave - R+1 (which is sort of the CW of this race) still portends 30-40 seats for the Democrats.

On a side note, why is there a special election for a congressional district 3 months before the next election?   The previous rep left office in mid January so why has it taken this long to hold this vote?    I assume that the same 2 candidates could be running again in November.    Common sense is that they should wait and save the taxpayers the cost of this special election.

The other common sense rule would be to let this winner serve for the next few months plus 2 years but I assume that would be against the law.

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32 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On a side note, why is there a special election for a congressional district 3 months before the next election?   The previous rep left office in mid January so why has it taken this long to hold this vote?    I assume that the same 2 candidates could be running again in November.    Common sense is that they should wait and save the taxpayers the cost of this special election.

The other common sense rule would be to let this winner serve for the next few months plus 2 years but I assume that would be against the law.

It all varies by state, tbh.  Some states have rules that leave a seat vacant if it's X days until the elections.  Others have mandatory fill and run again laws.

The Blake Farenthold special is gonna end up costing hundreds of thousands for less than 90 days of service.

 

Edited by Bateshorn
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At lunch, GOLL and I realized we were right next door to one of the Travis County Dem campaign offices.  Went in to check out the signs and gear and such.  They had a good shop set up -- Beto signs are $5 (we have ours already, but if'n you want one....)  We also observed that there were a LOT of young folks there working the phones etc.  Including a lot of lovely young ladies.

We're thinking that if you're looking to have some dating success while you work for a campaign, the Dem HQ is gonna have much better odds for you.

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9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We're thinking that if you're looking to have some dating success while you work for a campaign, the Dem HQ is gonna have much better odds for you.

I was wearing a campaign shirt at a concert this Saturday.  While I felt a bit weird about it, it was a conversation starter. Several people came up to talk to me.  There was even a college student who tried to hit on my 46-year old self, trying to dance with me.  It was a little awkward, with my wife there, and the fact that he wasn't really my type...NTTAWWT.

 

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14 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I was wearing a campaign shirt at a concert this Saturday.  While I felt a bit weird about it, it was a conversation starter. Several people came up to talk to me.  There was even a college student who tried to hit on my 46-year old self, trying to dance with me.  It was a little awkward, with my wife there, and the fact that he wasn't really my type...NTTAWWT.

 

I'm sure the ego didn't mind it one bit. 

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Sometimes it's just nice to be noticed.*

 

 

 

(* That's what a stripper told me once when I had to explain I was out of money.  It was college.  There is a part of me that still loves that woman.)

Edited by Tuco
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26 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I was wearing a campaign shirt at a concert this Saturday.  While I felt a bit weird about it, it was a conversation starter. Several people came up to talk to me.  There was even a college student who tried to hit on my 46-year old self, trying to dance with me.  It was a little awkward, with my wife there, and the fact that he wasn't really my type...NTTAWWT.

 

Sorry daddy.

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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

At lunch, GOLL and I realized we were right next door to one of the Travis County Dem campaign offices.  Went in to check out the signs and gear and such.  They had a good shop set up -- Beto signs are $5 (we have ours already, but if'n you want one....)  We also observed that there were a LOT of young folks there working the phones etc.  Including a lot of lovely young ladies.

We're thinking that if you're looking to have some dating success while you work for a campaign, the Dem HQ is gonna have much better odds for you.

I have a handful of friends who work political campaigns, and I always wondered why they would want to move so much, work frantically, and somehow still manage burnout. Turns out, campaign staffs are notorious for the frequent, casual sex. Especially in the larger campaigns. 

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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

At lunch, GOLL and I realized we were right next door to one of the Travis County Dem campaign offices.  Went in to check out the signs and gear and such.  They had a good shop set up -- Beto signs are $5 (we have ours already, but if'n you want one....)  We also observed that there were a LOT of young folks there working the phones etc.  Including a lot of lovely young ladies.

We're thinking that if you're looking to have some dating success while you work for a campaign, the Dem HQ is gonna have much better odds for you.

Is my computer broken because I don't see any pics?  You mean you couldn't feign a "The office is so cool, can I take a picture of it" line?

Boo.

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3 hours ago, Skyline said:

I have a handful of friends who work political campaigns, and I always wondered why they would want to move so much, work frantically, and somehow still manage burnout. Turns out, campaign staffs are notorious for the frequent, casual sex. Especially in the larger campaigns. 

Campaign workers are the service industry of politics/policy.  Any relationship is open. 

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At lunch, GOLL and I realized we were right next door to one of the Travis County Dem campaign offices.  Went in to check out the signs and gear and such.  They had a good shop set up -- Beto signs are $5 (we have ours already, but if'n you want one....)  We also observed that there were a LOT of young folks there working the phones etc.  Including a lot of lovely young ladies.
We're thinking that if you're looking to have some dating success while you work for a campaign, the Dem HQ is gonna have much better odds for you.


Airport? Not a locus of attractive women at vdr training I took three, but I went to a campaign event and did have the thought that it was replacing “volunteer at Austin Pets Alive” as my plan for if I become single again. More “in the sack” crazy and less “this throw pillow is full of her dead cat’s fur” crazy, and volunteering to knock on doors or phone bank would be an easy conversation starter/date shortcut.
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Seems a bad strategy: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/08/troy-balderson-franklin-county.html

Quote

But Balderson might have found a way to outdo the president. During his final campaign stop on Monday night, Balderson told a crowd in Zanesville, Ohio, that they need to get out and vote tomorrow because “we don’t want someone from Franklin County representing us.”

Balderson’s opponent, Democrat Danny O’Connor, is from Franklin County — but so are about a third of the district’s voters. The 12th District covers all of Delaware, Licking, and Morrow counties, along with parts of Franklin, Marion, Muskingum, and Richland counties.

Franklin County makes up 1/3rd of the district and the previous Rep, Pat Tiberi, was from Franklin County.

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58 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Seems a bad strategy: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/08/troy-balderson-franklin-county.html

Franklin County makes up 1/3rd of the district and the previous Rep, Pat Tiberi, was from Franklin County.

Also, probably more than 50% work, shop, and play in Franklin co.

oh_12.png

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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We just had an O'Conner campaign volunteer stop by to see if my 78 year old MIL or anyone else needed a ride to the polls. We've also gotten multiple mail reminders of this special election, including handwritten notes, over the last 3 weeks.  I've never experienced anything like that before.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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