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2018 - Elections and Trends

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yes but for both Beto and Abbott to win, you will need a lot of ballots selecting both. I just dont see that happening. I think Beto and Lupe come up the same amount of short, but if Beto wins, I think Lupe wins too.

I know you envision some old grandma going to the polls with an "I hate that Cruz" feeling and voting Beto while straight R otherwise. That ain't gonna happen though. You either flip grandma entirely or you, more likely, dont. Either way, you need to get her grandkids to the polls for the first time ever. 

I imagine your canary in the coal mine is someone like LL who is no fan of Lupe or Abbott, was a W Republican, and who is voting for Beto.  Who are the LLs gonna vote for in the governor race? Or the Briskets even?

 

I think you’re way off. Those people will vote Beto/Abbott without a second thought.  I’m probably one of them. 

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Js1

Js1 85628

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yes but for both Beto and Abbott to win, you will need a lot of ballots selecting both. I just dont see that happening. I think Beto and Lupe come up the same amount of short, but if Beto wins, I think Lupe wins too.

I know you envision some old grandma going to the polls with an "I hate that Cruz" feeling and voting Beto while straight R otherwise. That ain't gonna happen though. You either flip grandma entirely or you, more likely, dont. Either way, you need to get her grandkids to the polls for the first time ever. 

I imagine your canary in the coal mine is someone like LL who is no fan of Lupe or Abbott, was a W Republican, and who is voting for Beto.  Who are the LLs gonna vote for in the governor race? Or the Briskets even?

 

Trump Wrong.gif 

A lot of Texans are ok with how the state is run but hate DC/Ted enough that Abbott is going to win by 20 and Beto/Cruz will be a less than 5 point race in the end 

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gmr548

gmr548 16617

Posted
Posted
Trump Wrong.gif 
A lot of Texans are ok with how the state is run but hate DC/Ted enough that Abbott is going to win by 20 and Beto/Cruz will be a less than 5 point race in the end 
Yup. The polls consistently show Abbott ahead by a mile and Cruz/Beto close to tied. They ask the same group of people both questions, every time. If Beto brings an unprecedented wave it'll probably help Valdez make the margin less embarrassing, but there are clearly plenty of Abbott/Beto voters. Does that make sense from a policy perspective? No, but politics isn't about policy.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15545

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yes but for both Beto and Abbott to win, you will need a lot of ballots selecting both. I just dont see that happening. I think Beto and Lupe come up the same amount of short, but if Beto wins, I think Lupe wins too.

I know you envision some old grandma going to the polls with an "I hate that Cruz" feeling and voting Beto while straight R otherwise. That ain't gonna happen though. You either flip grandma entirely or you, more likely, dont. Either way, you need to get her grandkids to the polls for the first time ever. 

I imagine your canary in the coal mine is someone like LL who is no fan of Lupe or Abbott, was a W Republican, and who is voting for Beto.  Who are the LLs gonna vote for in the governor race? Or the Briskets even?

 

I'll tell you--I don't even know what I'm going to do in the gubernatorial race.  I hate Abbott.  But I think Lupe is intensely incapable of being governor.  

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8350

Posted
Posted
On 8/28/2018 at 9:54 PM, gmr548 said:

Yeah FL is pretty fucking Trumpy outside of Miami/south Florida. Tampa is basically 50/50 and Jacksonville is reliably R. Orlando area is fairly blue but isn't a really big chunk of the electorate or anything. Pretty much the rest of the state is Trumpland except for Tallahassee, which is not going to move the needle. As big as the D primary turnout was, R's have about 125k more votes. The Trumpkin candidate is over 900k. Trumpkin crowd probably isn't going to be very happy about a black socialist either. Hopefully AG can just run up the score in Miami-Dade and Broward by some ungodly margin but I'm skeptical.

 

On 8/29/2018 at 12:56 PM, Mapache said:

The Puerto Ricans (hundreds of thousands) that fled the island and relocated in Florida after Hurricane Maria will turn that state blue come November.

I heard today that the number of exiled Puerto Ricans is 800,000. Also, a couple of years ago, I was in Orlando for about a week and was astonished by how many Puerto Ricans were there. That, of course, was long before Maria. IDK what their turnout is like, but they have the potential to tip that entire state, especially since the first-gen Cubans are dying off fast. 

23 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

I've actually never heard that phrase before, and don't see it used in Google than in connection with this story. I've heard of "monkeying with" something, but that doesn't necessarily have a negative connotation.   Like calling your kids "little monkeys," it more has to with the resemblance to the way monkeys climb or fiddle with things. 

I guess, charitably, the phrase could be a variant of "throwing a monkey wrench in the works."  Just weird that I don't really see it used that way online before this story. 

Doesn't have much to do with anything on this thread, but my Beaumont-bred grandmother would ask us as kids if we needed to "go monkey" when she meant take a shit. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15545

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I heard today that the number of exiled Puerto Ricans is 800,000. Also, a couple of years ago, I was in Orlando for about a week and was astonished by how many Puerto Ricans were there. That, of course, was long before Maria. IDK what their turnout is like, but they have the potential to tip that entire state, especially since the first-gen Cubans are dying off fast. 

Yeah, but I've also heard that they're not registering to vote.  That could change before Election Day, but it's alarming.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted

With Republicans facing what many are calling a “blue wave” of Democrats taking control of the House — and possibly the Senate — the Republican Party is cutting off funding to some incumbents whose races appear to be a lost cause under an increasingly unpopular president.

According to Politico, GOP officials feel that up to 45 Republican-held seats are now at serious risk, and are making plans to shut down support for incumbents whose campaigns are going nowhere and have failed to do much on their own to raise much-needed campaign donations.

“This is the time of year when tough decisions have to be made,” Ken Spain, a longtime former top National Republican Congressional Committee staffer, told Politico. “There are likely going to be a number of unhappy Republican members of Congress in the coming weeks.”

According to the report, the party is looking at polling to determine whom to weed out, with Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA), Rep. Keith Rothfus (PA), and Rep. Rod Blum (IA) reportedly on the funding chopping block.

Currently, the GOP has set aside campaign-boosting funds for Comstock and Rothfus, but those dollars are not guaranteed and could easily be diverted to other incumbents who have a better chance of holding onto their seats.

According to Brian Walsh, an ex-House GOP campaign official who now oversees the pro-Trump America First Action super PAC, “At this point in the cycle with a field this large, difficult choices will have to be made. Such is the world we live in now.”

The loss of funding should not come as a surprise to many who are now facing ouster, because they were warned during a House GOP Conference meeting earlier this spring when “NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers told members not to expect the party to bail them out later in the campaign if they failed to pull their weight,” Politico reports.

“The NRCC isn’t going to be able to help those who haven’t helped themselves,” explained former Rep. Phil English (PA). “These are very Darwinian decisions. It means selection of the fittest.”

“In a year when there is a big advantage to one side over the other, the side with the limited resources has to be particularly strategic — and that means being dispassionate and not emotional as to how they are making decisions,” said English. “This is a challenge, and a judgement call that I think people at the NRCC always dread.”

You can read the whole report here.

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/panicked-gop-cutting-off-cash-highly-vulnerable-candidates-face-midterm-bloodbath-tied-trump/

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, kevwun said:

Beto is running an old fashioned Texas campaign.  Going around and meeting people all over the entire state used to be the norm.  LBJ made headlines when he flew all over the state in a helicopter when he ran for the Senate.

irony is Cruz did all 99 Iowa counties in 2016 but isn't traveling much now. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

They're cutting off funding to 45 incumbents?  Wow.  They must know this is going to be a real butt fucking.

MJ Hegar is about 60th on the prognosticator's lists and I am thinking Beto helps her win Wilco easily and make even Bell a toss-up.

I have been thinking the dems gain 50 to 60 seats but now that Trump's approval rating is at 36% and Mueller's over 60%, 60 to 70 seats is possible.

I think the dems will exceed a 60% majority.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13529

Posted
Posted

Dems are hopeful to gain up to 3 seats from the Texas Congressional races but I think Hurd is the only likely one.  Maybe Culberson will not win.  

I find it doubtful that changing demographics, Beto and trump hate will lead to Collins losing.  Are the north Austin suburbs up to Killeen really going to vote Dem?

you can pretty much write down the other house race winners in ink now.  

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bolverk

bolverk 29737

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Dems are hopeful to gain up to 3 seats from the Texas Congressional races but I think Hurd is the only likely one.  Maybe Culberson will not win.  

I find it doubtful that changing demographics, Beto and trump hate will lead to Collins losing.  Are the north Austin suburbs up to Killeen really going to vote Dem?

you can pretty much write down the other house race winners in ink now.  

I dunno - I think Sessions from north Dallas County is in real trouble. Kopser also has a good shot.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13529

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I dunno - I think Sessions from north Dallas County is in real trouble. Kopser also has a good shot.

Stand corrected.  I guess I looked at Sessions 71% win in 2016 as a sign he's safe but I didnt realize that the Dems didn't run anyone in 2016 against Sessions so it's difficult to understand how Sessions would have performed especially since straight Dem tickets didn't affect him.  Hillary did beat Trump in that district.

on a side note, I never understand why either party refuse to run a decent candidate in every district.  Even when the other side is going to get 75% of the vote, I don't see the downside.    You have to figure that you can find a teacher or city councilman who won't embarrass the national party.    And there is always the small chance that the heavily favored candidate will fall into a major scandal at the last minute.  Not too mention that a local candidate helps with the statewide races.

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12396

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

on a side note, I never understand why either party refuse to run a decent candidate in every district.

You overstate the number of good candidates available, as if they grow on trees. 

Even Beto, who is a very good (maybe even great) candidate by most accounts, has some skeletons in his closet.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, NowThis said:

irony is Cruz did all 99 Iowa counties in 2016 but isn't traveling much now. 

Cuz he was always about President and never about representing Texas.

Kinda crazy that Iowa has 99 counties even though they arent that big in geography and population. That's a ton of bureaucratic waste. 

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Js1

Js1 85628

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

It never ceases to amaze me at the utter absence of sports awareness in a campaign.  I can guarantee that someone on Claire's side knows what colors represent Mizzou. She probably has a section of the wardrobe dedicated to the team. 

Clueless rookie

Claire went to Missouri. Hawley went to Yale. 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5990

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 8/30/2018 at 8:35 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 The onion has the right take on the DeSantis thing. 

 

https://politics.theonion.com/ron-desantis-clarifies-that-monkey-comment-was-intend-1828728794

 

 He was just going for a standard-issue dog whistle and botched it making His intent a little too obvious. 

Love the Onion.  

But if people are wondering whether any of the monkey talk is incidental, it's not.  They have publicists and speech writers that weigh the impact of every word.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pennsylvania-gop-official-resigns-over-post-calling-black-nfl-players-baboons/ar-BBMMsxD?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout

A Pennsylvania GOP official has resigned after she was caught repeatedly referring to black NFL players as “baboons” on Facebook in heated posts that ripped the Pittsburgh Steelers for kneeling during the national anthem.

 

Edited by Mdhorn
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Jack Straw

Jack Straw 2954

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

Y'know...

"Hey Republican voters, you're all racist assholes, so stop it and vote Democrat" is really going to convince a lot of folks on the right to come running to your side.

No way it could backfire...

Yeah, people should really stop calling out the Republicans’ overt racism,  it probably isn’t effective. We should just look the other way and pretend it isn’t happening.  That’s the way to go.  

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Yeah, people should really stop calling out the Republicans’ overt racism,  it probably isn’t effective. We should just look the other way and pretend it isn’t happening.  That’s the way to go.  

 

3 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Yeah, people should really stop calling out the Republicans’ overt racism,  it probably isn’t effective. We should just look the other way and pretend it isn’t happening.  That’s the way to go.  

Or perhaps, Republican's aren't all racists.

But, I'm sure you've never entertained that idea.

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

Posted
Posted
Just now, bolverk said:

Maybe not, but they sure have a racism problem in their ranks.

But, I'm sure you've never entertained that idea.

As opposed to the Democratic Party that demands that race be taken into account for all manner of things, from jobs, to employment, educational positions, etc.

Interesting...

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