2018 - Elections and Trends

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,881]

5 hours ago, Message Board User said:

MJ Hagar out with new as about health care.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1036945359417823232

the temporary tattoo idea is great

[RomaVicta 29,949]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I’ve always felt I didn’t leave the GOP, they left me. 

But these people can actually make that claim. 

For some reason, I googled Comstock and read about her. You're exactly right. Naturally, I don't agree with her on many issues, but she stands up against party enough to earn my respect. She seems like the traditional Republican that faces extinction. 

If a district or state must have a GOP, we could do a hell of lot worse than this woman. Maybe there will be room for her kind again, but for now, the GOP must be taken out of power.

[tantric superman 4,667]

Just got lectured by the wife on my front yard signage. 

"Beeto's okay, but the rest of these guys [Nathan Johnson, John Turner, Mike Collier, Colin Allred] -- just put them in the garage.  I don't want to get targeted by any of the political weirdos around here."

 

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

nm

Edited September 4, 2018 by Mojo Hand

[tantric superman 4,667]

nm

 

Edited September 4, 2018 by tantric superman
bla

[Brisketexan 105,180]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm just happy to know that in almost exactly 2 months I will know for certain where we stand as a country and whether or not I need to jump ship.

Smart money would be acquiring one of these....it's the smart bet...

 

[Biff Tannen 45,695]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Smart money would be acquiring one of these....it's the smart bet...

 

Put a Canadian flag on that and I'm in.

[swraith 347]

I'm just happy to know that in almost exactly 2 months I will know for certain where we stand as a country and whether or not I need to jump ship.

I don’t think you will get that kind of clarity come November.

[Biff Tannen 45,695]

35 minutes ago, swraith said:

 

I don’t think you will get that kind of clarity come November.

 

Are you of the opinion the election results will be disputed?  I've certainly considered that possibility.

[atomheartbevo 89,758]

15 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Are you of the opinion the election results will be disputed?  I've certainly considered that possibility.

I really don't think the GOP wants anybody taking a close look at the election.

[wildcat09 29,360]

Man, Ag with kids is running a really long ongoing self-own here and doesn't even realize it.

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

11 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Man, Ag with kids is running a really long ongoing self-own here and doesn't even realize it.

You've described every Trump supporter (including him). 

[Ghost of LL 15,539]

8 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

D +14 in the generic ballot.  I'm going to call this the high water mark.  I can't imagine a bigger number.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/

Well, historically in wave elections (and +14 is definitely indicative of a wave election), the party in favor of which the wave is breaking only improves in the generic ballot between Labor Day and Election Day.  There's a first time for everything, of course.  But there's absolutely no historical evidence to support your conclusion that this is the high water mark.

If anything, it's just the beginning as people start to pay attention.

[Foosters 17,858]

 

[Biff Tannen 45,695]

Is that bad?  It seems bad.

[Foosters 17,858]

Yeah, it seems to be saying "we agree that the current map is a violation of multiple provisions of the constitution, but since we're pretty close to the election, *shrugging shoulder emoji*

[Biff Tannen 45,695]

Unconstitutional, schmunconstitutional

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, historically in wave elections (and +14 is definitely indicative of a wave election), the party in favor of which the wave is breaking only improves in the generic ballot between Labor Day and Election Day.  There's a first time for everything, of course.  But there's absolutely no historical evidence to support your conclusion that this is the high water mark.

If anything, it's just the beginning as people start to pay attention.

A big problem with this board is it is hard to sort out people posting reliable information with posting what they hope is true and trying to use brave wording to make it sound authoritative.  

Here are the last 6 wave years, 4 in charts (top 3 D, bottom one R) and two in text:

 

 

 

 

Here are two in non-chart form:  Top D wave, bottom R.

-  2008 at the beginning of Sept generic ballot was 47-36 D, with a small of 46-42 and a large of 48-37 in between.  Ended at 46-38 D.

-  2010 was  46-41 R, with a small of 45-42 and a large of 50-41 R, which is where it ended.

 

 

None showed the Labor Day numbers as the lowest between then and election.  That is to say:  No, there is no indication that the winner's position reliably widens after Labor Day.  The only time that really happened was 2010.  

I think we are at a high point.  You don't.  I'm just guessing.  You are too.  Why we have to flex nuts instead of just have interesting conversation is beyond me.

[Ghost of LL 15,539]

21 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

A big problem with this board is it is hard to sort out people posting reliable information with posting what they hope is true and trying to use brave wording to make it sound authoritative.  

Here are the last 6 wave years, 4 in charts (top 3 D, bottom one R) and two in text:

 

 

 

 

Here are two in non-chart form:  Top D wave, bottom R.

-  2008 at the beginning of Sept generic ballot was 47-36 D, with a small of 46-42 and a large of 48-37 in between.  Ended at 46-38 D.

-  2010 was  46-41 R, with a small of 45-42 and a large of 50-41 R, which is where it ended.

 

 

None showed the Labor Day numbers as the lowest between then and election.  That is to say:  No, there is no indication that the winner's position reliably widens after Labor Day.  The only time that really happened was 2010.  

I think we are at a high point.  You don't.  I'm just guessing.  You are too.  Why we have to flex nuts instead of just have interesting conversation is beyond me.

2008 wasn't a wave election, and it wasn't a midterm.  

But regardless--the only one that you point out that doesn't get better for the waving party (to coin a term) is 1994 (although 2006 is hard to tell because I can't discern what the numbers would have been on Labor Day).  And in 1994, I would argue that Gallop's final generic ballot poll was in error, as it does not reflect what was ultimately a 52-seat gain for Republicans in the House.

So yeah--I'm pretty comfortable with my original statement that a waving party's position "only improves in the generic ballot between Labor Day and Election Day."  It may not improve by much, but it certainly doesn't improve for the party on the wrong end of the wave.  And historically speaking, there's no basis to believe that this is "the high-water mark," as you posit.

[Js1 85,449]

Almost 20 year incumbent Mike Captain just got Crowley’ed in Mass. 

 

[Js1 85,449]

Same story - similar views/platforms but the district wants someone who looks like them  

 

[Ag with kids 581]

23 hours ago, Js1 said:

Gargle my balls 

That's a really bad pick up line.

 

Oh...maybe that works at the gay bars for you.  mea culpa...

[SubliminalHorn 6,809]

Republicans are really bad at comedy 

[Js1 85,449]

Please clap

[Ag with kids 581]

21 hours ago, suddenly shaggy said:

I feel pretty comfortable letting the rest of the posters judge our respective IQ's.

Protip: There is no such thing as an aggy joke, just stories about how stupid y'all really are. 

I'm really not worried about an IQ contest with you...

I'll drink a case of beer just to spot you...

[Ag with kids 581]

5 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Man, Ag with kids is running a really long ongoing self-own here and doesn't even realize it.

I forgot...you live in the echo chamber here.

 

I will say...TexAgs can be a conservative echo chamber, but, you're getting close to Democratic Underground level here...

 

It's cool, though.  I know how to say fuck off.

[Chuckie Finster 22,702]

I forgot...you live in the echo chamber here.
 
I will say...TexAgs can be a conservative echo chamber, but, you're getting close to Democratic Underground level here...
 
It's cool, though.  I know how to say fuck off.

Ted Cruz does not approve of that language, sir.

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Almost 20 year incumbent Mike Captain just got Crowley’ed in Mass. 

 

He's 66 years old.  She's 44.  Good for her.

Best thing we could do is to cycle out the olds.

[WhatTheBuck 28,794]

29 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Republicans are really bad at comedy 

Fear and hate aren't funny. 

[bolverk 29,695]

2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Fear and hate aren't funny. 

What's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

[Skyline 325]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/house-primaries-candidates/?utm_term=.067bcca2277d

Very cool article with lots of charts. Unfortunately, WaPo's images can't be directly linked but it's a great read on the shift of the Democrats. 

 

[Celery Man 20,981]

19 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

He's 66 years old.  She's 44.  Good for her.

Best thing we could do is to cycle out the olds.

My hope is that to whatever extent the "sick and tired of being treated like irrelevant country cousin" flyover people voted their frustration in 2016, young people are voting in 2018.  I'm not really expecting that to be the case in a huge way, but I really hope it is.

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

9 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

My hope is that to whatever extent the "sick and tired of being treated like irrelevant country cousin" flyover people voted their frustration in 2016, young people are voting in 2018.  I'm not really expecting that to be the case in a huge way, but I really hope it is.

 

That's a good way to put it and I hope it's true.  Regardless of party, if Congress had an age cap at 60 and it was 50/50 men and women, it would be a MUCH better place.

[Ag with kids 581]

21 hours ago, TDunk said:

Don't think you know what Deism is.  Unless you don't want any love sent to Brisket, which makes you the prototypical Trumpkin.  Blowhard

I do know what deism is...I've been a deist for a long time.

Let me 'splain it to you:

 

There is a god.

 

Welp...we're done.

[Ag with kids 581]

36 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Fear and hate aren't funny. 

Are you Venezuelan?

[TDunk 590]

37 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

I do know what deism is...I've been a deist for a long time.

Let me 'splain it to you:

 

There is a god.

 

Welp...we're done.

Yes, and that "god" does not influence humans.  So how would "it" send love to Brisket?  'splain that. Welp....

[David Dennison 18,940]

39 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

I do know what deism is...I've been a deist for a long time.

Let me 'splain it to you:

 

There is a god.

 

Welp...we're done.

Oh, there is not. 

[Ag with kids 581]

10 minutes ago, TDunk said:

Yes, and that "god" does not influence humans.  So how would "it" send love to Brisket?  'splain that. Welp....

Oh, please explain to me all that you know about deism.  You seem so knowledgeable.

 

I'm sure that's exactly what you practice, right?

[TDunk 590]

24 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

Oh, please explain to me all that you know about deism.  You seem so knowledgeable.

 

I'm sure that's exactly what you practice, right?

Not gonna derail this thread, AG.  PM me, or "god" strike me down for lying. 

[wildcat09 29,360]

2 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

I forgot...you live in the echo chamber here.

 

I will say...TexAgs can be a conservative echo chamber, but, you're getting close to Democratic Underground level here...

 

It's cool, though.  I know how to say fuck off.

Oh, you poor thing. Bless your heart.

[RayDog 682]

7 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

He's 66 years old.  She's 44.  Good for her.

Best thing we could do is to cycle out the olds.

I am expecting a wave of oldtimers being primaried by progressives in 2020 especially with Bernie on top of the primary ticket.

[WhatTheBuck 28,794]

52 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I am expecting a wave of oldtimers being primaried by progressives in 2020 especially with Bernie on top of the primary ticket.

Old timer Bernie is going to get primaried by a progressive?

[RayDog 682]

3 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Old timer Bernie is going to get primaried by a progressive?

No. He will win the nomination.

[WhatTheBuck 28,794]

2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

No. He will win the nomination.

So four more years of Trump then. Fuuuck. 

[Larry T. Spider 1,746]

Saw my first 30 second MJ ad just now. Good ad that was a condensed version of her long video. Doesn’t get into policy but will be great for name recognition if she has the money to run it often.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

21 minutes ago, RayDog said:

No. He will win the nomination.

No, a moderate will win it. Yall realize that red and purple state Dems get votes that count in the primaries, right?  Two young progressives beating two old progressives in two of the most liberal districts in the nation doesnt mean that either one would win a nationwide primary. Plus Bernie is old also. He doesnt even get to play the young and refreshing "new voice" card.

Take a page from Pressly.  She won by saying Capuano would vote the same but she would be a new and stronger voice. A young progressive needs to "primary" Bernie in the same way. Symbolically though because if you have both in the primary, they will steal votes from each other. He simply needs to pass the torch. 

Edited September 5, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Bozo_Casanova 26,510]

No. He will win the nomination.

Nope

[RayDog 682]

13 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Nope

The corporations want Biden, but he won't  win. No one will overcome Bernie's advantage.

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

Bernie Sanders ran against the worst candidate ever (Hillary) and lost by 3 million votes.  

He's not winning anything.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,510]

57 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The corporations want Biden, but he won't  win. No one will overcome Bernie's advantage.

I think a lot of people are interpreting Bernie's 2015-16 appeal as something more than what it is. There is a far left populist wing obviously, and he appeals to it, but a lot of the Bernie phenomenon was a product of an artificially constricted field and an establishment choice that was as best uninspiring to most Democrats in addition to being deeply inauthentic. Bernie wasn't just Bernie. He was the alternative to Hillary, which was a powerful enough motivator that 1/10 Bernie primary voters flipped to Trump in the general election. 

2019 will be a much deeper field, with an older Bernie and a much younger and more likable competition that won't have Clinton's baggage. Bernie's slide into the middle of the pack has already happened and by next November when the top 3-5 emerge,  I don't see him in the top tier. 

I don't really see Biden either because I think he's too old and it's starting to show, but he's really, really popular across the ideological board with Democrats. If he came out fairly early with a package deal of himself and someone like Kamala Harris, Joaquin Castro or Tulsi Gabbard as VP and heir apparent and said he was only running for a single term to right the ship, he could very well run the table.