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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29949

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I’ve always felt I didn’t leave the GOP, they left me. 

But these people can actually make that claim. 

For some reason, I googled Comstock and read about her. You're exactly right. Naturally, I don't agree with her on many issues, but she stands up against party enough to earn my respect. She seems like the traditional Republican that faces extinction. 

If a district or state must have a GOP, we could do a hell of lot worse than this woman. Maybe there will be room for her kind again, but for now, the GOP must be taken out of power.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

D +14 in the generic ballot.  I'm going to call this the high water mark.  I can't imagine a bigger number.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/

Well, historically in wave elections (and +14 is definitely indicative of a wave election), the party in favor of which the wave is breaking only improves in the generic ballot between Labor Day and Election Day.  There's a first time for everything, of course.  But there's absolutely no historical evidence to support your conclusion that this is the high water mark.

If anything, it's just the beginning as people start to pay attention.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, historically in wave elections (and +14 is definitely indicative of a wave election), the party in favor of which the wave is breaking only improves in the generic ballot between Labor Day and Election Day.  There's a first time for everything, of course.  But there's absolutely no historical evidence to support your conclusion that this is the high water mark.

If anything, it's just the beginning as people start to pay attention.

A big problem with this board is it is hard to sort out people posting reliable information with posting what they hope is true and trying to use brave wording to make it sound authoritative.  

Here are the last 6 wave years, 4 in charts (top 3 D, bottom one R) and two in text:

vkw6yetizkgwccct6sc4cq.gif

 

phrau-p4xegjoavwo-w-bq.gif

 

2dti5_3kxu-ls55ekv4wkg.gif

 

wv3p0o2yduczma9aurd9bg.gif

 

Here are two in non-chart form:  Top D wave, bottom R.

-  2008 at the beginning of Sept generic ballot was 47-36 D, with a small of 46-42 and a large of 48-37 in between.  Ended at 46-38 D.

-  2010 was  46-41 R, with a small of 45-42 and a large of 50-41 R, which is where it ended.

 

 

None showed the Labor Day numbers as the lowest between then and election.  That is to say:  No, there is no indication that the winner's position reliably widens after Labor Day.  The only time that really happened was 2010.  

I think we are at a high point.  You don't.  I'm just guessing.  You are too.  Why we have to flex nuts instead of just have interesting conversation is beyond me.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

A big problem with this board is it is hard to sort out people posting reliable information with posting what they hope is true and trying to use brave wording to make it sound authoritative.  

Here are the last 6 wave years, 4 in charts (top 3 D, bottom one R) and two in text:

vkw6yetizkgwccct6sc4cq.gif

 

phrau-p4xegjoavwo-w-bq.gif

 

2dti5_3kxu-ls55ekv4wkg.gif

 

wv3p0o2yduczma9aurd9bg.gif

 

Here are two in non-chart form:  Top D wave, bottom R.

-  2008 at the beginning of Sept generic ballot was 47-36 D, with a small of 46-42 and a large of 48-37 in between.  Ended at 46-38 D.

-  2010 was  46-41 R, with a small of 45-42 and a large of 50-41 R, which is where it ended.

 

 

None showed the Labor Day numbers as the lowest between then and election.  That is to say:  No, there is no indication that the winner's position reliably widens after Labor Day.  The only time that really happened was 2010.  

I think we are at a high point.  You don't.  I'm just guessing.  You are too.  Why we have to flex nuts instead of just have interesting conversation is beyond me.

2008 wasn't a wave election, and it wasn't a midterm.  

But regardless--the only one that you point out that doesn't get better for the waving party (to coin a term) is 1994 (although 2006 is hard to tell because I can't discern what the numbers would have been on Labor Day).  And in 1994, I would argue that Gallop's final generic ballot poll was in error, as it does not reflect what was ultimately a 52-seat gain for Republicans in the House.

So yeah--I'm pretty comfortable with my original statement that a waving party's position "only improves in the generic ballot between Labor Day and Election Day."  It may not improve by much, but it certainly doesn't improve for the party on the wrong end of the wave.  And historically speaking, there's no basis to believe that this is "the high-water mark," as you posit.

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, suddenly shaggy said:

I feel pretty comfortable letting the rest of the posters judge our respective IQ's.

Protip: There is no such thing as an aggy joke, just stories about how stupid y'all really are. 

I'm really not worried about an IQ contest with you...

I'll drink a case of beer just to spot you...

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Man, Ag with kids is running a really long ongoing self-own here and doesn't even realize it.

I forgot...you live in the echo chamber here.

 

I will say...TexAgs can be a conservative echo chamber, but, you're getting close to Democratic Underground level here...

 

It's cool, though.  I know how to say fuck off.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20981

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

He's 66 years old.  She's 44.  Good for her.

Best thing we could do is to cycle out the olds.

My hope is that to whatever extent the "sick and tired of being treated like irrelevant country cousin" flyover people voted their frustration in 2016, young people are voting in 2018.  I'm not really expecting that to be the case in a huge way, but I really hope it is.

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

elvis-costello2.jpg

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14599

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

My hope is that to whatever extent the "sick and tired of being treated like irrelevant country cousin" flyover people voted their frustration in 2016, young people are voting in 2018.  I'm not really expecting that to be the case in a huge way, but I really hope it is.

 

That's a good way to put it and I hope it's true.  Regardless of party, if Congress had an age cap at 60 and it was 50/50 men and women, it would be a MUCH better place.

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Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, TDunk said:

Don't think you know what Deism is.  Unless you don't want any love sent to Brisket, which makes you the prototypical Trumpkin.  Blowhard

I do know what deism is...I've been a deist for a long time.

Let me 'splain it to you:

 

There is a god.

 

Welp...we're done.

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TDunk

TDunk 590

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

I do know what deism is...I've been a deist for a long time.

Let me 'splain it to you:

 

There is a god.

 

Welp...we're done.

Yes, and that "god" does not influence humans.  So how would "it" send love to Brisket?  'splain that. Welp....

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TDunk

TDunk 590

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

Oh, please explain to me all that you know about deism.  You seem so knowledgeable.

 

I'm sure that's exactly what you practice, right?

Not gonna derail this thread, AG.  PM me, or "god" strike me down for lying. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29360

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

I forgot...you live in the echo chamber here.

 

I will say...TexAgs can be a conservative echo chamber, but, you're getting close to Democratic Underground level here...

 

It's cool, though.  I know how to say fuck off.

Oh, you poor thing. Bless your heart.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

He's 66 years old.  She's 44.  Good for her.

Best thing we could do is to cycle out the olds.

I am expecting a wave of oldtimers being primaried by progressives in 2020 especially with Bernie on top of the primary ticket.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, RayDog said:

No. He will win the nomination.

No, a moderate will win it. Yall realize that red and purple state Dems get votes that count in the primaries, right?  Two young progressives beating two old progressives in two of the most liberal districts in the nation doesnt mean that either one would win a nationwide primary. Plus Bernie is old also. He doesnt even get to play the young and refreshing "new voice" card.

Take a page from Pressly.  She won by saying Capuano would vote the same but she would be a new and stronger voice. A young progressive needs to "primary" Bernie in the same way. Symbolically though because if you have both in the primary, they will steal votes from each other. He simply needs to pass the torch. 

Edited by FondrenRoad
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26510

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The corporations want Biden, but he won't  win. No one will overcome Bernie's advantage.

I think a lot of people are interpreting Bernie's 2015-16 appeal as something more than what it is. There is a far left populist wing obviously, and he appeals to it, but a lot of the Bernie phenomenon was a product of an artificially constricted field and an establishment choice that was as best uninspiring to most Democrats in addition to being deeply inauthentic. Bernie wasn't just Bernie. He was the alternative to Hillary, which was a powerful enough motivator that 1/10 Bernie primary voters flipped to Trump in the general election. 

2019 will be a much deeper field, with an older Bernie and a much younger and more likable competition that won't have Clinton's baggage. Bernie's slide into the middle of the pack has already happened and by next November when the top 3-5 emerge,  I don't see him in the top tier. 

I don't really see Biden either because I think he's too old and it's starting to show, but he's really, really popular across the ideological board with Democrats. If he came out fairly early with a package deal of himself and someone like Kamala Harris, Joaquin Castro or Tulsi Gabbard as VP and heir apparent and said he was only running for a single term to right the ship, he could very well run the table. 
 

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