2018 - Elections and Trends

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

This is why Donald Trump being elected might end up being the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party in a long, long time.

It finally showed the base that elections matter and merely having Obama as President wasn't going to save them from everything.

[Larry T. Spider 1,740]

The lesson was learned and the dem base is the most motivated I have ever seen. We tend to be a complacent bunch though. I could see taking back the house and the presidency in the next couple of years then thinking all the work is done. Need to learn to stay hungry and gotv even when things are good. You can go from good to trump wiping his ass with every American value you hold dear in one night.

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

Gillum up 4 in Florida.  That race is going to cost the Repubs the Senate race.  I highly doubt anyone is splitting their ticket and voting for Gillum and Scott.

 

Democrat Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is leading Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) by 4 points in Florida’s gubernatorial race, according to a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll released Wednesday. 

Gillum leads DeSantis 47 percent to 43 percent in the statewide poll. The Democrat also leads his Republican opponent in all major media markets across the state except Jacksonville, according to the poll. 

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/406275-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-4-points-in-florida-governor-race

[troph 24,562]

Under two months let’s do this !

[bernorange 8,348]

22 hours ago, bernorange said:

So, I really hope this doesn't become a trend...

https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Castro-Valley-festival-stab-attempted-rudy-peters-13221444.php

There appears to be something in the air...

Quote

• A Republican Party office in Wyoming was set on fire just two days after opening, and police believe it was intentional.
• Local police are working with federal authorities in their investigation.
• Wyoming Republican Rep. Liz Cheney said in response that “the future of our nation depends upon our ability to exchange ideas and viewpoints, to argue and debate, free from violence and intimidation.”

...

https://dailycaller.com/2018/09/06/wyoming-gop-office-fire/

Quote

Police have responded to the Trump International Hotel in Washington DC after an anonymous threat to shoot up a meeting there supporting President Donald Trump.

The threat was made ahead of the planned Tuesday evening event by an anonymous Twitter account that supports the Democratic Socialists, a far-left political group.

'I am coming with a gun and i expect to get numerous bloodstained MAGA hats as trophies,' the account wrote, referencing the Trump campaign slogan 'Make American Great Again'.

The Metropolitan Police Department is investigating the threat, department spokesman Hugh Carew told DailyMail.com, adding that no further details were immediately available.

...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6157305/DC-police-respond-mass-shooting-threat-MAGA-event-Trump-Hotel.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

 

[bolverk 29,397]

Republicans don't have a lock on crazy - it comes in all stripes.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

11 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The lesson was learned and the dem base is the most motivated I have ever seen. We tend to be a complacent bunch though. I could see taking back the house and the presidency in the next couple of years then thinking all the work is done. Need to learn to stay hungry and gotv even when things are good. You can go from good to trump wiping his ass with every American value you hold dear in one night.

I think it applies to more than just Dems.  On the old board I referred to it as the complacent majority. 

[Lurch 5,921]

Gillum up 4 in Florida.  That race is going to cost the Repubs the Senate race.  I highly doubt anyone is splitting their ticket and voting for Gillum and Scott.

 

Democrat Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is leading Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) by 4 points in Florida’s gubernatorial race, according to a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll released Wednesday. 

Gillum leads DeSantis 47 percent to 43 percent in the statewide poll. The Democrat also leads his Republican opponent in all major media markets across the state except Jacksonville, according to the poll. 

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/406275-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-4-points-in-florida-governor-race

 

This before Trump ignited the PR vote in FL

 

The aftermath:

[Bateshorn 9,898]

17 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

The list of what Democrats could do with that kind of power is endless.  Inasmuch as they are the majority party, they could render the GOP powerless for a generation.

If the Democrats don’t attempt to make DC a state with that power, they don’t deserve to be a political party.  If the GOP could generate two more guaranteed republican senators,  they would have done it on the first day of the new Congress. 

[Lurch 5,921]

PR, too

[Lurch 5,921]

 
This before Trump ignited the PR vote in FL
 
The aftermath:

Hahaha! Glorious. This will win him exactly 0 votes while costing him deplorables.

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

If the Democrats don’t attempt to make DC a state with that power, they don’t deserve to be a political party.  If the GOP could generate two more guaranteed republican senators,  they would have done it on the first day of the new Congress. 

Fox News -- "Our beautiful flag has 50 stars and they want to add one more!  Why do the liberals hate our flag just for minority votes in DC?"

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

[David Dennison 18,647]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

 If the Democrats don’t attempt to make DC a state with that power, they don’t deserve to be a political party.  If the GOP could generate two more guaranteed republican senators,  they would have done it on the first day of the new Congress. 

Making DC a state might be tough. It might require a Constitutional amendment.

Puerto Rico would be easier I think.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,408]

7 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

2am in Texas = 10am in Moscow.  Sounds about right.  Get to work, have a coffee or two, and then craft a Twitter statement to be sent out.  They should at least wait until most Americans are awake.  

[Ghost of LL 15,475]

Making DC a state might be tough. It might require a Constitutional amendment.
Puerto Rico would be easier I think.

I don’t think you need an amendment—Maryland already consented to the cession. And if needed to create two new senators, would again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bateshorn 9,898]

Retrocessing DC into Maryland is different than making it a state.  That's easy to do.

If I'm the Dems, I try it and force the Supreme Court to strike it down.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,408]

Republicans will not let PR become a state without bringing in a new conservative state.   Florida absorbing PR would be a more likely option but the Republicans would be concerned about Fla becoming permanently blue with that option. Not to mention that I assume PR doesn't want to move from a US territory to a large Florida county.  (They would be slightly bigger than Dade county in population.)

 

[Lurch 5,921]

Republicans will not let PR become a state without bringing in a new conservative state.   Florida absorbing PR would be a more likely option but the Republicans would be concerned about Fla becoming permanently blue with that option. Not to mention that I assume PR doesn't want to move from a US territory to a large Florida county.  (They would be slightly bigger than Dade county in population.)
 

Page 30 of the 2016 GOP Platform
“The Territory of Puerto Rico
We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state”

https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/static/home/data/platform.pdf

[wildcat09 29,220]

21 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Exactly my point.  I don't want either side to have that power.

Seconded.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,408]

10 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

Page 30 of the 2016 GOP Platform
“The Territory of Puerto Rico
We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state”

https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/static/home/data/platform.pdf

 

They support the right, but that doesn't mean the support the actual admission.  

[Horn Dog 9,671]

DC has similar 2018 population as S. Dakota, N. Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming.

[gmr548 16,490]

PR's delegate to congress is an accomplished conservative and affiliated with the national Republican Party so I don't think it would be the layup many consider it to be. Social conservatism would play big down there - abortion, gay rights, etc. Perhaps that ship has sailed with Trump though, can't imagine the approval ratings are high. I don't see how anyone could be against them becoming a state for any reason other a bluntly political one. It would be right in the middle in terms of population - it really is odd how we, and even PR to an extent, have been cool with nearly 4 million American citizens being disenfranchised.

DC is a little different in that it was straight up designed as a federal district but you still end up disenfranchising 750k. City of transplants and all but still. As pointed out above, smaller states get votes...

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

PR's delegate to congress is an accomplished conservative and affiliated with the national Republican Party so I don't think it would be the layup many consider it to be. Social conservatism would play big down there - abortion, gay rights, etc. Perhaps that ship has sailed with Trump though, can't imagine the approval ratings are high. I don't see how anyone could be against them becoming a state for any reason other a bluntly political one. It would be right in the middle in terms of population - it really is odd how we, and even PR to an extent, have been cool with nearly 4 million American citizens being disenfranchised.

DC is a little different in that it was straight up designed as a federal district but you still end up disenfranchising 750k. City of transplants and all but still. As pointed out above, smaller states get votes...

You don't understand.  Those smaller states are where white people live.

Imagine if DC were 90% white and solidly Republican.  Does anyone here think Tom Delay or Mitch McConnell wouldn't have tried to make them a state?

[Chad Fuck 17,551]

Wow. We’re doing the whole “one free for one slave state” again. Can we just get to bleeding Kansas already?

 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

3 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

DC has similar 2018 population as S. Dakota, N. Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming.

Everywhere in DC that isnt next to the national mall should revert to Maryland. 

[Bateshorn 9,898]

8 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Everywhere in DC that isnt next to the national mall should revert to Maryland. 

That’s the usual plan to retrocess.  And it’s hard to argue against from a democracy standpoint.  Although DC residents will bitch endlessly about their different culture. My point is Dems should pursue statehood because it’s a straight McConnell style power play.  

 

PR politics don’t line up with our national parties at all.  The PR rep caucuses with the GOP because she has to pick a side in the house, but I’ve been in that office, it’s not because she’s traditionally GOP. 

Edited September 14, 2018 by Bateshorn

[Js1 85,095]

You right. The current PR rep is part of the PR New Progressive Party which has seen them caucus with both parties. Even though they don’t get floor votes, they tend to caucus with whatever party controls the House upon swearing in for maximum affect. 

[Js1 85,095]

 

[Huckleberry 32,694]

13 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Everywhere in DC that isnt next to the national mall should revert to Maryland. 

I agree and I think we've discussed it before. Every residential and business area in DC should be retroceded to Maryland. The only things in the federal district should be federal government buildings.

[David Dennison 18,647]

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree and I think we've discussed it before. Every residential and business area in DC should be retroceded to Maryland. The only things in the federal district should be federal government buildings.

Maryland isn't that into the District. Retrocession without consent probably required a Constitutional amendment.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

40 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree and I think we've discussed it before. Every residential and business area in DC should be retroceded to Maryland. The only things in the federal district should be federal government buildings.

I wouldn't even include federal buildings generally.  If I made the district now, it would only be the National Mall including the Capitol and White House.  The only buildings outside the park footprint I would include would be the Supreme Court and Library of Congress.  The only residents of DC would live in the White House.  Or build dorms and make all the Senators and Reps live in them.  That would be fun.  Having most current DC federal offices in MD shouldn't be a problem as the Pentagon and many other federal office buildings are already in VA and MD.

33 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Maryland isn't that into the District. Retrocession without consent probably required a Constitutional amendment.

True, and DC residents themselves are hellbent on being an independent state rather than being part of MD.  They actually hate MD only slightly less than they hate VA.

I'm all about having a small liberal state added.  The problem with DC as a state is that it would never just be another state.  It would be the seat of federal power, and DC voters would go from "taxation without representation" to being, by far, the most disproportionately powerful voters.

[Huckleberry 32,694]

Right, I understand why the way I want things won't happen based on the fact that I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat and I approach thing based on the principles of the matter. Currently we have American citizens who are not represented in the federal legislative branch. That is taxation without representation, of course, and should be stopped immediately. Call it a State or don't, I don't care, but those citizens need to be able to vote for actual voting House and Senate members.

And that goes for any American citizen anywhere in the world. Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. Figure it out. Add PR to FL and GU to HI, whatever. But it's absolutely 100% wrong for American citizens to be subject to federal taxes without being able to vote on their representation. (And yes, I know that Guam's taxes go to Guam but those rates are still decided by Washington)

[Js1 85,095]

 

[Js1 85,095]

On 9/13/2018 at 7:03 AM, Aqua Buddha said:

Gillum up 4 in Florida.  That race is going to cost the Repubs the Senate race.  I highly doubt anyone is splitting their ticket and voting for Gillum and Scott.

 

Democrat Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is leading Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) by 4 points in Florida’s gubernatorial race, according to a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll released Wednesday. 

Gillum leads DeSantis 47 percent to 43 percent in the statewide poll. The Democrat also leads his Republican opponent in all major media markets across the state except Jacksonville, according to the poll. 

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/406275-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-4-points-in-florida-governor-race

Rasmussen (R) has Gillium up 6. People want to vote FOR someone. This is proof. Progressives win when they run on progressive ideas. 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Right, I understand why the way I want things won't happen based on the fact that I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat and I approach thing based on the principles of the matter. Currently we have American citizens who are not represented in the federal legislative branch. That is taxation without representation, of course, and should be stopped immediately. Call it a State or don't, I don't care, but those citizens need to be able to vote for actual voting House and Senate members.

And that goes for any American citizen anywhere in the world. Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. Figure it out. Add PR to FL and GU to HI, whatever. But it's absolutely 100% wrong for American citizens to be subject to federal taxes without being able to vote on their representation. (And yes, I know that Guam's taxes go to Guam but those rates are still decided by Washington)

Do sitting Presidents change their residence to DC or are they considered residents of their home states?  I know Senators/Reps maintain their home state residency, but they are supposed to never completely move to DC unlike the President.

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Rasmussen (R) has Gillium up 6. People want to vote FOR someone. This is proof. Progressives win when they run on progressive ideas. 

Gillum in FL and Abrams in GA are interesting to me in that they didn't adhere to the standard playbook and won a hotly contested nomination.  They ran as unabashed economic progressives in states where that generally doesn't work rather than the conservative Democrat/Republican Lite model.  Gillum even beat Ben Nelson's daughter for God's sake.  If they win their general elections, there might be a new playbook.

[Bateshorn 9,898]

17 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Do sitting Presidents change their residence to DC or are they considered residents of their home states?  I know Senators/Reps maintain their home state residency, but they are supposed to never completely move to DC unlike the President.

No, they retain the residency in their home state.

[Js1 85,095]

7 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Gillum in FL and Abrams in GA are interesting to me in that they didn't adhere to the standard playbook and won a hotly contested nomination.  They ran as unabashed economic progressives in states where that generally doesn't work rather than the conservative Democrat/Republican Lite model.  Gillum even beat Ben Nelson's daughter for God's sake.  If they win their general elections, there might be a new playbook.

Bob Graham’s daughter. Not Bill Nelson’s. But still. That is a FL political machine. Akin to say, it was like if someone defeated Jay Rockefeller’s kid in WV. Or George P Bush in Texas (if only). Gillium overcame a huge name. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bob Graham’s daughter. Not Bill Nelson’s. But still. That is a FL political machine. Akin to say, it was like if someone defeated Jay Rockefeller’s kid in WV. Or George P Bush in Texas (if only). Gillium overcame a huge name. 

Yeah, that's what I meant.  Graham instead of Nelson.  They all look alike.

[Pancho 44,452]

I guess Gillum came to....monkey this race up.

*rputs on sunglasses while theme from csi Miami plays in the background*

Edited September 14, 2018 by Pancho Negro

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

 Florida poll (their Senate numbers showed Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson up 45-44) is the first horserace poll we've seen from Rasmussen Reports all year. Indeed, the once-prolific firm has been crowdfunding for months to raise money for more polls.

[Mack Tripper 696]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

This is going to be interesting. First poll since May. Most have this in the tossup category. Culberson sucks in general but especially at campaigning and raising money. Hillary won this district. 

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

 

[Brisketexan 104,548]

9 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

You know, IF the GOP was SINCERE about both speaking to and actually HELPING minorities (I know, huge "if"), there's a much simpler way of communicating the message he was TRYING to send without it being demeaning and racist bullshit.

"I think that minorities have often voted for other candidates and parties based on promises those parties made, but they didn't actually deliver.  I think the most important thing that government should provide to all of its citizens, but particularly our fellow citizens in historically disadvantaged populations, is OPPORTUNITY.  That's the most important promise to make, and the most important promise to keep."

Yeah, it's platitude-y (this is politics-speak, people), but if you actually BELIEVE that -- and the "idea of the GOP" that once existed sure SEEMED like it might believe that -- then it's a message you can sell.  You can follow it with "Minorities are, and can be, small business leaders in our communities.  We need to make sure the opportunities are there for these businesses.  Minorities are hardworking members of American society.  We need to make sure that opportunities are there for them to work good jobs, and build a life and a home for their families."  You can then sell your business of regulatory reduction and whatnot.  Again, if you MEAN it, and if those policies are actually implemented in a thoughtful way that is targeted at achieving those results, you can be elected and RE-elected with minority votes.

But....that ship has sailed.  The GOP has picked its brand, and to say that it ain't minority-friendly is an epic political understatement.

[bolverk 29,397]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

You know, IF the GOP was SINCERE about both speaking to and actually HELPING minorities (I know, huge "if"), there's a much simpler way of communicating the message he was TRYING to send without it being demeaning and racist bullshit.

"I think that minorities have often voted for other candidates and parties based on promises those parties made, but they didn't actually deliver.  I think the most important thing that government should provide to all of its citizens, but particularly our fellow citizens in historically disadvantaged populations, is OPPORTUNITY.  That's the most important promise to make, and the most important promise to keep."

Yeah, it's platitude-y (this is politics-speak, people), but if you actually BELIEVE that -- and the "idea of the GOP" that once existed sure SEEMED like it might believe that -- then it's a message you can sell.  You can follow it with "Minorities are, and can be, small business leaders in our communities.  We need to make sure the opportunities are there for these businesses.  Minorities are hardworking members of American society.  We need to make sure that opportunities are there for them to work good jobs, and build a life and a home for their families."  You can then sell your business of regulatory reduction and whatnot.  Again, if you MEAN it, and if those policies are actually implemented in a thoughtful way that is targeted at achieving those results, you can be elected and RE-elected with minority votes.

But....that ship has sailed.  The GOP has picked its brand, and to say that it ain't minority-friendly is an epic political understatement.

Except they don't fucking mean it. Moreover, they can't resist showing their true colors. To them, minorities are a drain on society and only deserve to take the gotdam scraps.

[BLKNSTY 289]

You know, IF the GOP was SINCERE about both speaking to and actually HELPING minorities (I know, huge "if"), there's a much simpler way of communicating the message he was TRYING to send without it being demeaning and racist bullshit.
"I think that minorities have often voted for other candidates and parties based on promises those parties made, but they didn't actually deliver.  I think the most important thing that government should provide to all of its citizens, but particularly our fellow citizens in historically disadvantaged populations, is OPPORTUNITY.  That's the most important promise to make, and the most important promise to keep."
Yeah, it's platitude-y (this is politics-speak, people), but if you actually BELIEVE that -- and the "idea of the GOP" that once existed sure SEEMED like it might believe that -- then it's a message you can sell.  You can follow it with "Minorities are, and can be, small business leaders in our communities.  We need to make sure the opportunities are there for these businesses.  Minorities are hardworking members of American society.  We need to make sure that opportunities are there for them to work good jobs, and build a life and a home for their families."  You can then sell your business of regulatory reduction and whatnot.  Again, if you MEAN it, and if those policies are actually implemented in a thoughtful way that is targeted at achieving those results, you can be elected and RE-elected with minority votes.
But....that ship has sailed.  The GOP has picked its brand, and to say that it ain't minority-friendly is an epic political understatement.

lol he thinks Robert Lee was a hero.

I’m not sayin’ all people who think of Robert E. Lee as a hero are racists, but all racists think of Lee as a hero.

And I’m also sayin’ all people who think of Robert E. Lee as a hero are racists.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

What happened then?

Priebus commissioned the study of how to "Be Better with voters that are Not White" and it was summarily dismissed. 

I posted the link. It is worth the discussion of when and why the GOP went off the rails. It's not mine to start.

Going to quit here. 

 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

So the comment about a black guy being a monkey didn’t work? It there faith in humanity yet?  

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 hour ago, BLKNSTY said:

 

lol he thinks Robert Lee was a hero.

I’m not sayin’ all people who think of Robert E. Lee as a hero are racists, but all racists think of Lee as a hero.

And I’m also sayin’ all people who think of Robert E. Lee as a hero are racists.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Robert E. Lee was probably the greatest racist general this country has ever seen that broke his sworn oath and rebelled against his country.

And Lost.

Put up the statue!