2018 - Elections and Trends

[Js1 85,300]

5 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

What happened then?

Priebus commissioned the study of how to "Be Better with voters that are Not White" and it was summarily dismissed. 

I posted the link. It is worth the discussion of when and why the GOP went off the rails. It's not mine to start.

Going to quit here. 

 

Because they realized that just doubling down on a smaller, more rabid base who reliably shows up was easier than changing 60 years of racist policies and risking alienating them.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

8 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Robert E. Lee was probably the greatest racist general this country has ever seen that broke his sworn oath and rebelled against his country.

And Lost.

Put up the statue! 

Some think so fondly of the Confederacy but they have the absolutely worst record a country can have with war: 0-1.    Imagine the Cleveland Browns ceasing to exist tomorrow but someone still wearing Browns jerseys in 2170.   Weird people.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

59 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some think so fondly of the Confederacy but they have the absolutely worst record a country can have with war: 0-1.    Imagine the Cleveland Browns ceasing to exist tomorrow but someone still wearing Browns jerseys in 2170.   Weird people.

Theyd still be wearing Manziel Browns jerseys in College Station. 

[Js1 85,300]

Only rich people should run for office. Wow this is tone deaf by a guy who defrauded Floridians in his Medicare scam to get rich 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Only rich people should run for office. Wow this is tone deaf by a guy who defrauded Floridians in his Medicare scam to get rich 

 

Actually DeSantis resigned from Congress and didn’t just refuse to take a salary.  Why doesn’t Scott resign as governor?   Follow the lead of the great DeSantis.

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[Js1 85,300]

Either she’s unprincipled or someone who follows their own path on a facts by facts basis for issues. But it’s politics so...

I’d also vote for her if I could on the basis of opposing the Iraq War. Because they were right after all. 

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,632]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

Lou’s hair stylist is about as good with his hair, as Lou is with his rants.  

[atomheartbevo 89,632]

10 hours ago, Js1 said:

Because they realized that just doubling down on a smaller, more rabid base who reliably shows up was easier than changing 60 years of racist policies and risking alienating them.  

Once Texas flips, and I don’t mean if Beto wins, but truly flips based on demographics and not the Rs running shit candidates, the GOP can double down on that base and spend the next 60 years in the wilderness.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

Now trump media loyalists are attacking Scott and DeSantis?  Interesting strategy.  Win the battle, lose the war.   

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[Js1 85,300]

Not to mention polling over the weekend had Rosen +2 and Heller in the mid-40s as an incumbent;  Manchin +12; Tester +2; McCaskill tied.

Fucking Republicans are blowing it.

[Js1 85,300]

19 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Also the Democrats are already at 50% in both races.  Not a lot of room for McSally or Blackburn, as undecided will probably break against them.

[atomheartbevo 89,632]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also the Democrats are already at 50% in both races.  Not a lot of room for McSally or Blackburn, as undecided will probably break against them.

Blackburn reminds too many middle-aged men of their ex-wives.  

[Js1 85,300]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Blackburn reminds too many middle-aged men of their ex-wives.  

Ted Cruz in a wig.

[Celery Man 20,933]

On 9/15/2018 at 8:59 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Actually DeSantis resigned from Congress and didn’t just refuse to take a salary.  Why doesn’t Scott resign as governor?   Follow the lead of the great DeSantis.

well someone needs to hodor and keep black ex felons disenfranchised

[Js1 85,300]

 

[Gil Bang 25,923]

Interesting discussion, IMO

 

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/a-cautionary-note-for-dems-ahead-of-the-midterms-1323184195664?v=raila&cid=sm_npd_ms_tw_ma

[Washpark 176]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Key quotes from that article

 

Quote

And within that group, 57 percent of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance (37 percent believe they do).

If overconfident Republican voters stay home, Democrats could win a landslide. The report urges GOP officials to yank their voters back to reality: “We need to make real the threat that Democrats have a good shot of winning control of Congress.”

 

The internal RNC study finds that complacency among GOP voters is tied directly to their trust in the president—and their distrust of traditional polling. 

 

Quote

Those voters who strongly approve of the President and those who support both his policies and leadership style are genuinely passionate about voting in the election and are voting GOP lock, stock and barrel.

No need for dems to moderate their message.

[Js1 85,300]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

My sister is in KS so she and I discuss that one quite a bit.  It's a surprisingly close race.  I assumed Kobach would win in a walk based on nothing but it being a middle-America red state.  It wouldn't exactly be AL electing Jones level of unprecedented, but a close second.

[Js1 85,300]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

My sister is in KS so she and I discuss that one quite a bit.  It's a surprisingly close race.  I assumed Kobach would win in a walk based on nothing but it being a middle-America red state.  It wouldn't exactly be AL electing Jones level of unprecedented, but a close second.

There's been at least 2 non-partisan polls showing it a 1-2 point Kobach lead with the indie getting nearly 10%. Def a toss-up.

[seven 1,367]

KKKobach is hated in KS. He's a more hardline brownback. He'll still win the governor's race handily though, the democrat party in KS is virtually nonexistent. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8,349]

Just came home and there was a strange car in our driveway -- expensive little Caddy with a silver-haired old fella behind the wheel. I honked, and he backed out...It was Todd Litton's dad. He's out putting up signs for him. 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[Mack Tripper 696]

2 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Just came home and there was a strange car in our driveway -- expensive little Caddy with a silver-haired old fella behind the wheel. I honked, and he backed out...It was Todd Litton's dad. He's out putting up signs for him. 

#TX2 represent!

[Js1 85,300]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Walker is probably my #2 "god damn I hope this guy loses" for 2018.

This pleases me.

[atomheartbevo 89,632]

https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Republican-Jerry-Patterson-defects-picks-13229729.php

Quote

Former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson is party-jumping for this year’s general election, refusing to endorse fellow Republican George P. Bush and instead backing the Democratic candidate for his old job.

Miguel Suazo, an attorney and Democratic candidate for land commissioner, on Friday announced the endorsement of Patterson, Bush’s chief GOP critic. Patterson lost against Bush in his bid to regain the state office in the March Republican primary but spent his campaign slamming the incumbent for his handling of Hurricane Harvey recovery efforts and management of the Alamo.

Patterson is the second Republican who lost in a statewide primary to defect for the general election this year. Scott Milder, a Republican and businessman, endorsed Democrat Mike Collier in the race for lieutenant governor days after losing his party’s nomination in March.

 

[zork 629]

On 9/10/2018 at 6:05 PM, RayDog said:

Wait until they see Beto's 3rd quarter numbers. I was guessing that he would bring in 14 million after getting 10 million last quarter but after his viral video and TV appearances he could top that by a big margin.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article218563900.html

new poll out.

[WhatTheBuck 28,775]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Walker is probably my #2 "god damn I hope this guy loses" for 2018.

This pleases me.

Another Republican enemy of education and educators. Fuck that guy. 

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[Js1 85,300]

Yep. TDP blew that one bigly. 

[zork 629]

 

[berlinerbaer 673]

Clearly this one flew under the radar. Then again, I don't live in SD19.

This should be a wake up call for anyone who thinks TX23 will be anything other than a nail biter. The territory of SD19 and TX23 largely overlap.

[DanRydell 799]

17 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Clearly this one flew under the radar. Then again, I don't live in SD19.

This should be a wake up call for anyone who thinks TX23 will be anything other than a nail biter. The territory of SD19 and TX23 largely overlap.

This election mattered for the Texas Senate but I'm not sure how much you can extrapolate for November when turnout will be 2-3x larger than it was for this special election. Abbott's a piece of shit but he's not a moron. There's a reason he didn't just set the special election for election day in November.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[Js1 85,300]

7 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Clearly this one flew under the radar. Then again, I don't live in SD19.

This should be a wake up call for anyone who thinks TX23 will be anything other than a nail biter. The territory of SD19 and TX23 largely overlap.

TX23 will be close.  SD19 was a couple weird things:

1. State Senate special election in September

2. On the heels of the D getting convicted (scandals of the previous incumbent change a race by a lot, per Nate Silver)

3. Gallego was not the best option - Gutierrez probably was.  Gallego didn't seem to get the turnout in Bexar he needed because he's not from San Antonio.  Gallego also has a 2-time loser stench, losing to Hurd in 14 and 16.

4. The TRP's bullshit residency lawsuits really seemed to hurt Gallego.

 

But regardless, don't count on Hispanics to turn out. And don't count on the TDP to not fucking blow TX23, TX7, TX-32...

[Bozo_Casanova 26,439]

https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Republican-Jerry-Patterson-defects-picks-13229729.php

Former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson is party-jumping for this year’s general election, refusing to endorse fellow Republican George P. Bush and instead backing the Democratic candidate for his old job.
Miguel Suazo, an attorney and Democratic candidate for land commissioner, on Friday announced the endorsement of Patterson, Bush’s chief GOP critic. Patterson lost against Bush in his bid to regain the state office in the March Republican primary but spent his campaign slamming the incumbent for his handling of Hurricane Harvey recovery efforts and management of the Alamo.
Patterson is the second Republican who lost in a statewide primary to defect for the general election this year. Scott Milder, a Republican and businessman, endorsed Democrat Mike Collier in the race for lieutenant governor days after losing his party’s nomination in March.

 

If the Texas GOP were who they claim to be, Jerry Patterson would be Governor. Easily the best statewide GOP elected official of his generation.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,439]

https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Republican-Jerry-Patterson-defects-picks-13229729.php

Former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson is party-jumping for this year’s general election, refusing to endorse fellow Republican George P. Bush and instead backing the Democratic candidate for his old job.
Miguel Suazo, an attorney and Democratic candidate for land commissioner, on Friday announced the endorsement of Patterson, Bush’s chief GOP critic. Patterson lost against Bush in his bid to regain the state office in the March Republican primary but spent his campaign slamming the incumbent for his handling of Hurricane Harvey recovery efforts and management of the Alamo.
Patterson is the second Republican who lost in a statewide primary to defect for the general election this year. Scott Milder, a Republican and businessman, endorsed Democrat Mike Collier in the race for lieutenant governor days after losing his party’s nomination in March.

 

If the Texas GOP were who they claim to be, Jerry Patterson would be Governor. Easily the best statewide GOP elected official of his generation.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,439]

Yep. TDP blew that one bigly. 

News flash: TDP isn’t a real thing

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

Groups that typically back GOP candidates, such as the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, are sitting on the sidelines. Braun’s recent three-stop “solutions” tour — spread out across three days — was ridiculed by Democrats, who pointed to Donnelly’s seven-day, 40-stop trek in August.

And while Braun, a multimillionaire businessman, took out $6.4 million in loans to fund his primary campaign, he also publicly groused about the cost. Now, with less than two months until the election, he has yet to purchase air time for October, while Donnelly has outspent him by almost double on TV and radio since June, records show.

[Brisketexan 105,087]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

TX23 will be close.  SD19 was a couple weird things:

1. State Senate special election in September

2. On the heels of the D getting convicted (scandals of the previous incumbent change a race by a lot, per Nate Silver)

3. Gallego was not the best option - Gutierrez probably was.  Gallego didn't seem to get the turnout in Bexar he needed because he's not from San Antonio.  Gallego also has a 2-time loser stench, losing to Hurd in 14 and 16.

4. The TRP's bullshit residency lawsuits really seemed to hurt Gallego.

 

But regardless, don't count on Hispanics to turn out. And don't count on the TDP to not fucking blow TX23, TX7, TX-32...

All of these.   AND.....as I've been saying for almost two years now, nobody is coming to save us.  Nobody.  The GOP is in charge.  They are going to stay in charge.  They are going to get what they want, and they don't care what they break or destroy to get it.

It can't be stopped.  Evil and depravity are unstoppable forces of nature.  They aren't stopped except by total war.  Otherwise, they just eventually run out of steam.  This train isn't close to running out of steam.

[Js1 85,300]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

News flash: TDP isn’t a real thing

Beto's campaign can't handle being responsible for getting people to the polls by itself for the whole state and individually targeted U.S. House races in TX-23, TX-7 and TX-32.

TDP needs to just get people on the ground to get people to the polls on Election Day. 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

That's why Beto has to do it himself. There's no coordination. Is John Wiley Price going to send word Allred that he can help? I doubt it. Has Sessions reached out to Price to stay quiet? more likely. As long Dawanna Dukes and JWP get votes and despise white liberals that demand accountability (oh and there are more besides them) we are stuck with each campaign being it's own production. Nobody recruited Beto to go to all 154 counties. 

Getting people involved in the process means letting them in the circle and not everyone is willing to do that. In which case the campaign shrugs and does whatever they have the gumption to do. 

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[happyfunball 481]

[High Plains Drifter 11,035]

13 hours ago, Js1 said:

TX23 will be close.  SD19 was a couple weird things:

1. State Senate special election in September

2. On the heels of the D getting convicted (scandals of the previous incumbent change a race by a lot, per Nate Silver)

3. Gallego was not the best option - Gutierrez probably was.  Gallego didn't seem to get the turnout in Bexar he needed because he's not from San Antonio.  Gallego also has a 2-time loser stench, losing to Hurd in 14 and 16.

4. The TRP's bullshit residency lawsuits really seemed to hurt Gallego.

 

But regardless, don't count on Hispanics to turn out. And don't count on the TDP to not fucking blow TX23, TX7, TX-32...

And,

I have a couple of gay mafia friends who live in that district, and they really really don't like Gallego. Something about him saying something like he "doesn't support the gay lifestyle" or something, then using his Catholic faith as an excuse when called out on it. I bet a large part of the local chapter of the gay mafia didn't vote for Gallego.

[Message Board User 12,395]

8 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

And,

I have a couple of gay mafia friends who live in that district, and they really really don't like Gallego. Something about him saying something like he "doesn't support the gay lifestyle" or something, then using his Catholic faith as an excuse when called out on it. I bet a large part of the local chapter of the gay mafia didn't vote for Gallego.

so how do you earn your button and become a made man in the gay mafia?

asking for a friend