2018 - Elections and Trends

[Pancho 45,062]

 

[Pancho 45,062]

Side note - I have a question about Texas voting laws. If anyone who knows the specifics, please pm.  I know the basic 4 laws.

[Buzzrock 14,948]

I think you called me racist one time on here and I’m not sure what that was about.
 
Even in that link, it doesn’t say the university forced him to apologize.  I haven’t seen anywhere where there has been a forced apology. And I’d gladly welcome evidence.

That would have been out of character for me if I did that. I do my best to avoid as hominem attacks on here, much less racist accusations.

There’s “forced” and there’s “succumbing to immense pressure”. I don’t think they are that far apart. Point being, it seems that lately the left is more likely to suppress speech than the right.

[Buzzrock 14,948]

Protip for the olds here. I'm a 31 year old millennial who just bought a house, has a young daughter, and got a huge pay increase when I took this job last year right around the time she was born. If anything I'm even more liberal now and even more willing to pay higher taxes now because I am so sick of all of the old whites giving zero fucks about any social services beyond SS and Medicare (they hypocritically think somehow these aren't socialist-like policies), sick of them supporting a party that is doing nothing to help the majority of Americans, and completely denying the overwhelming evidence that shows we're destroying this world with carbon emissions.

That’s a reasonable position. I would just say regarding social services that in a lot of cases conservatives believe very much in charity but do not believe the federal government is the appropriate vehicle for it. We prefer to divert our income to our churches and charities and get involved on our own terms. I don’t know how Millenials rank but in recent years conservatives give more to charity than liberals. So “old whites giving zero fucks” isn’t a complete picture.

[Js1 85,602]

So about those hot takes...

 

[GSU&UT 1,798]

31 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

That’s a reasonable position. I would just say regarding social services that in a lot of cases conservatives believe very much in charity but do not believe the federal government is the appropriate vehicle for it. We prefer to divert our income to our churches and charities and get involved on our own terms. I don’t know how Millenials rank but in recent years conservatives give more to charity than liberals. So “old whites giving zero fucks” isn’t a complete picture.

 

Perhaps if churches would cover the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars in cost you get if you need intensive cancer treatment for everyone we'd be more apt to donate. I personally have donated more money than ever these past two years between NPR, the ACLU, RAICES, and liberal candidates who think single payer healthcare (amongst many other things) should be enacted. I personally do not care for religion after growing up in a fundamentalist Southern Baptist dad.

[Buzzrock 14,948]

The notion that people become more conservative as the age hasn't been proven to be statistically accurate. A study I read about a few years ago demonstrated that the events that take place in your early voting years tend to "bake in" the party that you vote for. Here's a good Upshot piece that shows that data:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/08/upshot/how-the-year-you-were-born-influences-your-politics.html
And, to discount an anecdotal story told above, I voted Nader in '96 and '00. Since then, my political views have only solidified - albeit, I'm more "pragmatic" now in how I think change can be affected. 

That makes a lot of sense, much like the notion that the music you identify with the most is the music that was popular during your formative years.

[Message Board User 12,396]

45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So about those hot takes...

 

It’s almost as if this whole Kavanaugh bump for the GOP was a complete fabrication.

[Js1 85,602]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

It’s almost as if this whole Kavanaugh bump for the GOP was a complete fabrication.

Anger is a better motivator than a victory. Methinks the GOP miscalculated that “more big donations from the BSDs” = enthusiasm. To vote

[Message Board User 12,396]

Holy crap Hurricane Michael was upgraded to Cat 4.

Stay Safe Florida folks, but I can’t help but think of the political implications for the Senate and governor race (Gillum is Tallahassee mayor, for those of you living under a rock).

[Buzzrock 14,948]

Anger is a better motivator than a victory. Methinks the GOP miscalculated that “more big donations from the BSDs” = enthusiasm. To vote

Definitley. And the party out of power tends to show up angry sooner or later.

[Buzzrock 14,948]

Perhaps if churches would cover the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars in cost you get if you need intensive cancer treatment for everyone we'd be more apt to donate. I personally have donated more money than ever these past two years between NPR, the ACLU, RAICES, and liberal candidates who think single payer healthcare (amongst many other things) should be enacted. I personally do not care for religion after growing up in a fundamentalist Southern Baptist dad.

Well you initially said that they (we? Fuck, I’m 46) do care about Medicare so I was leaving that out. But good on you for giving back. My money and time go to United Way, Habitat for Humanity, and Atlanta Food Bank. I think giving money to NPR is about as useful as lighting it on fire but isn’t it great that we have all these options?

I too am disillusioned with organized religion.

[Pancho 45,062]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

 

That would have been out of character for me if I did that. I do my best to avoid as hominem attacks on here, much less racist accusations.

There’s “forced” and there’s “succumbing to immense pressure”. I don’t think they are that far apart. Point being, it seems that lately the left is more likely to suppress speech than the right.

 

My bad then.  Beers on me.

I disagree that the Left "suppresses" speech.  I do agree the Left is more open to calling out oppressive speech and the Right is more likely to use oppressive language. 

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Anger is a better motivator than a victory. Methinks the GOP miscalculated that “more big donations from the BSDs” = enthusiasm. To vote

While that's true, there was a lot of anger on the right for putting poor Bart through this ordeal.   While I'd expect that to wane over the next month because Kavanaugh was confirmed, I'm surprised to see this result in the first polls we've gotten.    That's a bad sign for the Rs.   Still, we haven't seen specific Senate races like Heidkamp yet, and she could be way down. 

[Bateshorn 9,942]

All I know is my wife said a canvas for a local dem race in maryland was packed last weekend.  They had to do 2 instruction sections for new door knockers.  All women livid about Kavanaugh, most door knocking for the first time. This is Maryland, mind you, not some swing-y VA congressional race.

[Js1 85,602]

16 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

While that's true, there was a lot of anger on the right for putting poor Bart through this ordeal.   While I'd expect that to wane over the next month because Kavanaugh was confirmed, I'm surprised to see this result in the first polls we've gotten.    That's a bad sign for the Rs.   Still, we haven't seen specific Senate races like Heidkamp yet, and she could be way down. 

The GOP who were the most angry for "putting poor Brett/Bart through this" were going to vote anyways.  This really energized Democrats (probably from "I'm most likely going to vote" to "I AM GOING TO CRAWL THROUGH FIRE AND GLASS TO VOTE") but also independent women who are probably the most appalled by it.

[cactusflinthead 27,606]

42 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Well you initially said that they (we? Fuck, I’m 46) do care about Medicare so I was leaving that out. But good on you for giving back. My money and time go to United Way, Habitat for Humanity, and Atlanta Food Bank. I think giving money to NPR is about as useful as lighting it on fire but isn’t it great that we have all these options?

I too am disillusioned with organized religion.

 

Huh, it's like the ones with more money won't willingly give it up whether it's at church or not. 

t’s alarming that Christians now give less per capita than during the Great Depression. When we finally look at those in church, at best 25% of the congregation give.That’s at best. If you have that level of participation, you’re not in the norm, according to other research, which says only about 3-5% actually tithe in most cases. And, it’s not the wealthy who always tithe. The statistics suggest that if you make less than $20k, you’re eight times more likely to give than someone who makes more than $75k.

[MidTexHorn 822]

It energized my apolitical but previously fairly conservative, rarely voting wife to yell at the TV “I am never voting for a Republican again!”  She’s also intending to vote on the first day of early voting in Texas. 

 

I hope there’s enough women out there like her that it makes a difference. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by MidTexHorn

[cactusflinthead 27,606]

Remind me who is calling for books like Harry Potter to be banned.

That bothers me more than calling out someone for dropping n-bombs.

The only time someone gives a shit about PC language is when have put a big target on themselves when they said something that was fine for their grandfather but gets them a visit with HR or worse.

Been saying that how we respond to the party in power when we turn 18 is what guides us the rest of our lives. 

Was summarily dismissed. 

[troph 24,912]

PC language — you can take my right to call gays faggots and transgender folk trannies and transgendereds from my cold dead hands.

And the book bannings? Curriculum Wars is where it really begins.

[Anastasis 23,491]

My wife is involved in a series of job interviews for a position on her team.  As part of the vetting process there is a small assignment that the candidates were given the weekend to complete. It was due by COB Monday. One turned their work in on time.  Corrupted file.  The other  emailed on Wed morning asking for an extension. I told her that she should thank both of them in advance for saving our country. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Anastasis

[GRHorn 105]

12 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

Where is this forced? Who exactly is doing the forcing?

no denial about the nbomb I see

The online mob. Literally in his mentions, blowing him up. Maybe you don’t Twitter. 

I don’t usually deny the absurd, but for your bitch ass I will. I don’t condone using the N word. So take a hike. 

[GRHorn 105]

The truth is we won’t know how all this affects the election until the day of.  It will be a fascinating day. 

[Parliament 14,334]

Heidi Heitkamp is still campaigning and running ads. I guess you gotta respect her spunk?

[Bozo_Casanova 26,579]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Heidi Heitkamp is still campaigning and running ads. I guess you gotta respect her spunk?

Oh, I have no doubt that you like spunk

[Js1 85,602]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Heidi Heitkamp is still campaigning and running ads. I guess you gotta respect her spunk?

Why would she just quit?

She was allegedly down 10 points in 2012 and won.  She's campaigning based on her internals.

Also gotta respect the balls on her that she put out an ad directly addressing her "no" vote and reminder that: a) she voted for Gorsuch; and b) there were dozens of better qualified conservative judges without big red flag issues that she would have voted "yes" on.

[Bateshorn 9,942]

28 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

The truth is we won’t know how all this affects the election until the day of.  It will be a fascinating day. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Bateshorn

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,528]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

My wife is involved in a series of job interviews for a position on her team.  As part of the vetting process there is a small assignment that the candidates were given the weekend to complete. It was due by COB Monday. One turned their work in on time.  Corrupted file.  The other  emailed on Wed morning asking for an extension. I told her that she should thank both of them in advance for saving our country. 

the ol' submit a corrupted file trick to meet the deadline.   Downside is that you can only use that excuse once.

[Js1 85,602]

Seems premature and cocky given that he won by 1% in 2016 (underperformed Trump by A LOT)

There's been 1 real poll of this race (NYT/Siena) in a district that is almost impossible to poll due to the high number of Hispanics.

[lemonlime 5,503]

[David Dennison 18,951]

6 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

If these numbers are correct and hold up, the Republicans are going to get throttled in November.

[Js1 85,602]

2 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

The good news is there is a quick and easy fix for the county 911 coordinators to assign an address and a certified letter for the tribal residents.

[Brisketexan 105,438]

4 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

Yeah....that's incredibly bad.  Seriously, utterly shameful.  

But, there we are.  That's how things play in this country now.

[bad_teammate 13,225]

"So much for the Left advocating free speech!" was literally a Nazi party argument against their Communist critics during Hitler's rise to power. The Communists would try to shout down/shut down Nazi rallies and gatherings where anti-Semitism was spread.

History... it's a cycle

Edited October 10, 2018 by bad_teammate

[cactusflinthead 27,606]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....that's incredibly bad.  Seriously, utterly shameful.  

But, there we are.  That's how things play in this country now.

There's a work around

 

[Pancho 45,062]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

The online mob. Literally in his mentions, blowing him up. Maybe you don’t Twitter. 

I don’t usually deny the absurd, but for your bitch ass I will. I don’t condone using the N word. So take a hike. 

No, I do twitter.  None of that is “forcing.”  Forcing means to require.  None of them are required to respond/apologize, so your use of the word “force” is incorrect in this context. 

I’m glad you feel the need to tell my bitch ass what you do and don’t condone.  I’ll “force” myself to believe it. 

[Celery Man 21,003]

 

[Js1 85,602]

ReD wAvE

 

[horncyclist 1,391]

Wow on generic ballot polls. That makes me have more faith in people. 3 more weeks...

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2,682]

So based on that N.D. case, it's obviously constitutional to disenfranchise the homeless as well because while they reside within a county, no permanent residential address? 

[Hank Kingsley 21,059]

 

I don't even know what to say anymore. 

 

 

 

[gmr548 16,617]

 
I don't even know what to say anymore. 
 
 
 

Seems legit.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Chad Fuck 17,811]

20 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

I don't even know what to say anymore. 

 

 

 

We're a failed democracy.  An empire in decline.

But you can't keep people down forever.  They're going to express themselves, either at the ballot box, or coming after their oppressors with pitchforks.

 

[sheeeit 129]

1 hour ago, horncyclist said:

Wow on generic ballot polls. That makes me have more faith in people. 3 more weeks...

Shit.  Your faith did not last 3 weeks.  

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_oct10

[Pancho 45,062]

 

[Biff Tannen 45,750]

5 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

Doesn't matter if they don't vote.    I have a friend who is 34 and couldn't tell you the name of anyone in government besides dotus and her only concern right now is what bands to see at ACL this weekend.

[Js1 85,602]

8 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Shit.  Your faith did not last 3 weeks.  

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_oct10

You think Rasmussen polls are legit?

[David Dennison 18,951]

13 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Shit.  Your faith did not last 3 weeks.  

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_oct10

Come on.

Don't cite Rasmussen. Their polling is garbage.

[Storm the Field 5,302]

1. Robocall and online poll covering 9/30-10/4. Already a week old.

2. Not first time Rasmussen has showed a tie. Last time was mid-August when D lead in all other polls was +7.5.

3. One of these things is not like the others. 45% would be the highest result for GOP in last 100+ polls listed on 538.

imgur

[sheeeit 129]

Lulz. I  had never even seen a generic ballot poll before this week.  I googled the term to try to find out how much of a thing they are and the Rasmussen poll popped up. 

 For what it is worth, I think that the dams will take back the house but not the Senate.