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2018 - Elections and Trends

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Menendez is terrible. Really wish he had been primaried into oblivion. Not that McCormick was the answer, but the Dems left her out to dry.  The fact that he is causing NJ to be in play when anti-Trump sentiment is at an all time high tells you all you need to know about Menendez. 

Yeah, McCormick didn't even campaign and got over 40% of the vote.  Menendez shouldn't even have been in the primary, never mind essentially unopposed.  There were far better options, Jim Johnson, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, and others that I'm not thinking of.

Hopefully there's enough enthusiasm for the House candidates in competitive races to put him over the edge.  Even as someone who follows politics closely and hopes the GOP is decimated, I can't get remotely enthusiastic about this election.  

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The FANTASTIC future House freshman of 2018 from NJ are licking their chops: Jeff Van Drew, Andrew Kim, Tom Malinowski and Mikie Sherrill. All will be fantastic candidates in 2024.

Van Drew and Malinowski are Texas type Dems in red districts that probably wouldn't have total statewide appeal in NJ.  Sherrill and Kim would have a shot.  I saw a completely ridiculous attack ad against Andy Kim this morning, so I guess MacArthur is in full panic mode.  Of course, any of the 4 would be massive upgrades over Menendez.  In a different political environment, ie W instead of Trump, so would Hugin.

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9899

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Menendez is terrible. Really wish he had been primaried into oblivion. Not that McCormick was the answer, but the Dems left her out to dry.  The fact that he is causing NJ to be in play when anti-Trump sentiment is at an all time high tells you all you need to know about Menendez. 

I won't even meet with that office.  I don't want even the hint of their sleaze getting near my org. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Kyle Kondik has a pretty expansive "State of the Race" House column for Crystal Ball today.

TL;DR is they see D's picking up 17 seats at a minimum, with multiple potential avenues to get the additional 6 needed for a majority.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-drive-for-25-an-updated-seat-by-seat-analysis-of-the-democrats-quest-in-the-house/

 

So the floor is 212 for the Dems?  I doubt the repubs could get Obamacare repeal through with a 6 seat majority. Hopefully the worst case scenario doesn’t happen, but if it does, it looks like we would take enough seats to prevent trump from passing any of his psychotic legislation. 

 

Remember, they passed Obamacare repeal the first time around with over 240+ repubs in the house and they only got 217 votes to pass it. Good luck with that in 2019 schmucks.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
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7 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Yeah, McCormick didn't even campaign and got over 40% of the vote.  Menendez shouldn't even have been in the primary, never mind essentially unopposed.  There were far better options, Jim Johnson, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone, and others that I'm not thinking of.

Hopefully there's enough enthusiasm for the House candidates in competitive races to put him over the edge.  Even as someone who follows politics closely and hopes the GOP is decimated, I can't get remotely enthusiastic about this election.  

Don't be surprised if Hugin wins.  There will be a lot of voters who vote Dem in those House races and vote for Hugin.  There will be 0 voters who vote GOP House and Menendez.  When that happens, the Dem machine has nobody to blame but themselves.  Hillary won NJ by 13.2 percentage points.  Given the fact that Trump is way less popular now, a generic Dem candidate would win the NJ Senate seat by 15 to 20.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I won't even meet with that office.  I don't want even the hint of their sleaze getting near my org. 

NJ is the 2nd most politically corrupt state in the nation by a landslide.  Louisiana's existence is the only thing keeping it from taking the crown.  Those 2 are way out in front of the other 48 states.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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7 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Don't be surprised if Hugin wins.  There will be a lot of voters who vote Dem in those House races and vote for Hugin.  There will be 0 voters who vote GOP House and Menendez.  When that happens, the Dem machine has nobody to blame but themselves.  Hillary won NJ by 13.2 percentage points.  Given the fact that Trump is way less popular now, a generic Dem candidate would win the NJ Senate seat by 15 to 20.

Do you live in New Jersey and follow their politics?

 

how many house seats do you think the Dems win in that state?

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9899

Posted
Posted (edited)

Essentially, Menedez took bribes, in multiple forms, in exchange for political favors on behalf of a rich eye doctor.  It was about as cut and dry as it gets, but the Supreme Court drastically narrowed what constitutes corruption in the Bob McDonnell case, so Menedez's trial hung, mistrialed, then the government threw in the towel and quit.

In essence, Justice Roberts opinion so narrowly defined "an official act" as to make corruption convictions essentially impossible.  Because Menedez didn't pass a specific law on behalf of the doctor, but instead called officials, pulled strings, and used influence, it didn't constitute corruption.

Edited by Bateshorn
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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
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7 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I don’t know anything about the NJ race or Menendez, anyone have a quick synopsis of why he’s terrible?

He is corrupt as fuck.  Bribery, fraud, being completely bought by private interests.  Has been indicted, but skated.  There is no quick synopsis.  Even wiki's synopsis is paragraphs long.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Menendez

The underage prostitution claim was complete bullshit, but all the rest is true.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Do you live in New Jersey and follow their politics?

 

how many house seats do you think the Dems win in that state?

I lived in NJ for a long time, but don't currently.  Still in the same TV market, so their races get a lot of coverage.  I think the Dems get every district in NJ except the 4th, Smith.  I don't expect 2 or 3 of those to be reliable Dem voters on healthcare or other issues, but I do expect them to be reliable in holding Trump's feet to the fire.  I think the GOP gets the Senate seat.

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
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11 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I don’t know anything about the NJ race or Menendez, anyone have a quick synopsis of why he’s terrible?

He's corrupt.  He was tried in federal court on corruption charges last year, but there was a mistrial, and the federal government decided not to retry the case.  There were also other corrupt actions in the past, the specifics of which I can't remember.

That said his opponent, Hugin, is terrible also.  Hugin just put out an ad where he lies and falsely accuses Menendez of sleeping with minor children.

14 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Don't be surprised if Hugin wins.  There will be a lot of voters who vote Dem in those House races and vote for Hugin.  There will be 0 voters who vote GOP House and Menendez.  When that happens, the Dem machine has nobody to blame but themselves.  Hillary won NJ by 13.2 percentage points.  Given the fact that Trump is way less popular now, a generic Dem candidate would win the NJ Senate seat by 15 to 20.

Yeah, I won't be surprised.  I'm so disgusted right now.  Not only will some who don't support Trump vote for Hugin, Menendez is just a huge drag on the race.  The people who would be out there with things like GOTV effort are not enthused or interested in campaigning on Menendez' behalf.

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I lived in NJ for a long time, but don't currently.  Still in the same TV market, so their races get a lot of coverage.  I think the Dems get every district in NJ except the 4th, Smith.  I don't expect 2 or 3 of those to be reliable Dem voters on healthcare or other issues, but I do expect them to be reliable in holding Trump's feet to the fire.  I think the GOP gets the Senate seat.

If Hillary was President, without a doubt Hugin wins.

Don't see it in 2018 with Trump as president.   The House candidates will drag him over the finish line.

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

I’m seeing zilch in any campaign ads about the Russia investigation.

HEALTHCARE

HEALTHCARE

HEALTHCARE

The actual messaging by the Democratic candidates right now is FAR SUPERIOR to what the media and the internet is focusing on.

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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

well, menendez, as it turns out, has a small whanger. you never know who will get one. 

so it wasn't really a jury of his peers.

Is that why Hugin says he fucks underage girls?

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

Is that why Hugin says he fucks underage girls?

Yeah, Menendez' truths are bad enough that Hugin shouldn't be trotting out that tired horseshit.  

Menendez may still win.  Its a dead heat now, and the attack ads tying Hugin to Trump have barely even begun.

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bolverk

bolverk 29399

Posted
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Quote

 

Former Walker officials say they won’t vote to reelect Wisconsin GOP governor

Three of Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s former secretaries said in a letter that they won’t be voting for him in the coming election.

Paul Jadin, who previously served as the first secretary of Walker's economic development agency, made the announcement in a letter released to The Wisconsin State Journal on Thursday, which was also co-signed by former Corrections Secretary Ed Wall and former Financial Institutions Secretary Peter Bildsten.

In the letter, the former secretaries said they had initially signed onto to join Walker’s administration with a "fervent belief" that the Wisconsin Republican wanted to improve the state.

But they went on to claim that it became clear to them over time that Walker’s “focus was not on meeting his obligations to the public but to advancing his own political career at a tremendous cost to taxpayers and families."

They also wrote that they will not be voting for the governor in the coming election due to the Republican’s handling of transportation, education and safety issues in addition to "pervasive questionable practices within the administration."

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/412065-former-walker-officials-say-they-wont-vote-to-reelect-wisconsin-gop

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted

On the governor front.....

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412051-second-former-gop-governor-backs-dem-over-kobach#comment-4151341291

all living former governors in Kansas ( repubs) have endorsed democrat Laura Kelly in the Kansas governor race. The only exception is the WORST governor in Kansas history Sam Brownback who has backed Kris Kobach. I doubt it matters in the end because there is an independent on the ballot to siphon votes from Kelly and Kobach ( similar to kemp in Georgia) is actually in charge of the votes. Talk about a conflict of interest!

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5273

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Menendez may still win.  Its a dead heat now, and the attack ads tying Hugin to Trump have barely even begun.

It's not really even. Last few real polls have had Menendez up by 7-10. 538 has him with a 90% chance of retaining his seat.

Hugin's camp just released an internal that has him TRAILING by 2. That's what you call a "I swear I'm not dead yet, please keep sending me money!" hail mary.

Edited by Storm the Field
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Js1

Js1 85110

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

This would seem to be an outlier because I thought Blackburn was easily winning most polls.  Unless many Tennessee voters do what Taylor Swift tells them to do.

Unsurprisingly, she really flew past Bredesen right at the height of the Kavanaugh crap.  It's starting to even out a bit again as that has worn off.  Which, come on, everyone with firing synapses said would happen after a week or so.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11775

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

This would seem to be an outlier because I thought Blackburn was easily winning most polls.  Unless many Tennessee voters do what Taylor Swift tells them to do.

So it's gonna be the govenor
Or it's gonna go down in flames
You can tell me when it's over
If the election's worth the pain
Got a long list of pollsters
They'll tell you I'm insane
'Cause you know I love the dems
And don't love the dame

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)

RCP house map is starting to look a little better. 

Race changes over the last week :

IL14  leans GOP to tossup

NV3 leans dem to tossup

NJ11 tossup to leans dem

NC13 leans GOP to tossup

KS03 tossup to leans dem

FL15 safe GOP to likely GOP

AKAL safe GOP to likely GOP

FL15 Likely GOP to tossup.

 

current outlook : 

206 Dem - 198 Repub with 31 tossups. With the democrats massive money advantage, if the Dems can advertise like crazy and hammer the GOP for voting to try and take away coverage for pre-existing conditions, I think the map will expand and our odds will improve. Healthcare, healthcare, healthcare.  

Edited by Voldemort86
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sidis

sidis 9753

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Menendez is terrible. Really wish he had been primaried into oblivion. Not that McCormick was the answer, but the Dems left her out to dry.  The fact that he is causing NJ to be in play when anti-Trump sentiment is at an all time high tells you all you need to know about Menendez. 

piece of shit belongs in prison.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Fucking love how PV people think they're investigative journalists when they're just crooks.

They’re an old school active measures operation specializing in manufacturing clandestine propaganda.

Makes you wonder what a left wing version of PV could produce if they got in some of those GOP back rooms.

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