2018 - Elections and Trends

[Voldemort86 2,259]

I did a quick google search and was able to find. 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2018/10/18/tennessee-early-voting-turnout-massive-midterms-approaches-presidential-level/1683568002/ - Tennessee 

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/turnout-soars-the-first-day-early-voting-georgia/LDzDZ7TrzQjqtFSascOJ5M/ - Georgia 

https://www.kshb.com/news/political/kansas-early-voting-numbers-to-surpass-last-midterm-in-2014 - Kansas

 

early voting numbers are WAY WAY up. The pessimist in me is worrying about the dreaded “kavanaugh” effect, but I don’t see why a bunch of Dems yelling at a Supreme Court nominee would hype up repubs. 

 

I guess i’ll look at the numbers as a good sign tho. The old rule is low turnout = good for repub and high turnout = good for Dems. 

[Jack Straw 2,953]

9 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

the halfway-decent Republican voters 

lulz

[NIUHuskies 504]

6 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

I wonder how the influx of new residents of Nashville within the past five years will impact this election.

 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2018/09/13/nashville-population-growth-census/1265855002/

[Gil Bang 25,898]

 

[BrickHorn 18,191]

3 hours ago, mackavelli said:

 

You have to admit: that ad makes a good point.  What struck me during the confirmation was all the white Democrats like Corey Booker, Mazie Hirono, and Kamala Harris attacking innocent black man Brett Kavanaugh. 

[Buzzrock 14,871]

 

I don’t get it, Walker seems so likable..

Meanwhile in Georgia, Shotgun Goofball is running an invisible campaign. I think Abrams has a shot. Then again I thought Hillary would win.

[GopherRock 1,765]

Hasn't Bredesen had a small but consistent lead, right up until that poll that came out during the Kavanaugh hearings that showed Blackburn up 14? I thought that one was the outlier. 

[horncyclist 1,386]

Hasn't Bredesen had a small but consistent lead, right up until that poll that came out during the Kavanaugh hearings that showed Blackburn up 14? I thought that one was the outlier. 

He's been down in other polls but that one was definitely a huge outlier. A lot of those NYT/Sienna polls were tilted towards GOP. Not sure why. I don't think Kavanaugh could have had that significant of an effect and it be transient.

From 538

[Bateshorn 9,899]

That Tennessee race confuses the fuck out of me, as well. 

 

The TX-23 Race confuses me as well and I think lends some credence to the conservative oversampling in the NYT/Sienna poll. That district has been RAZOR thin under the current lines since 2012, and now, suddenly it's turned into an R+15 district?  That just demographically makes no sense.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Bateshorn

[Js1 85,109]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That Tennessee race confuses the fuck out of me, as well. 

 

The TX-23 Race confuses me as well and I think lends some credence to the conservative oversampling in the NYT/Sienna poll. That district has been RAZOR thin under the current lines since 2012, and now, suddenly it's turned into an R+15 district?  That just demographically makes no sense.

TX-23 is one of the extremely difficult ones to poll because of the makeup of the district.  I do not, in any way, shape, or form, think this will race will be anywhere outside D+3 - R+3.  Hurd is not up 15 in a Clinton +3 district.  I think they're struggling to capture Hispanic voters period.

[Bateshorn 9,899]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That Tennessee race confuses the fuck out of me, as well. 

 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TX-23 is one of the extremely difficult ones to poll because of the makeup of the district.  I do not, in any way, shape, or form, think this will race will be anywhere outside D+3 - R+3.  Hurd is not up 15 in a Clinton +3 district.  I think they're struggling to capture Hispanic voters period.

Right?  Sometimes you look at the polling, and think, "it's extreme, but I can see it."  This one defies the laws of political physics.

[Js1 85,109]

My issue with Hurd, besides him being a fucking aggy, is he is the Jeff Flake of the House.

He bitches and moans about civility, we don't need a wall, I don't agree with Trump on XYZ - and then votes with Trump 95% of the time.

[Bateshorn 9,899]

Well, the RNC pulled out of that district, which most people took to mean they felt good about the district, but given the margins in previous elections, including a Red year in 2014, I wouldn't be surprised if their internals came back bad and they walked away.  

 

[Js1 85,109]

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Well, the RNC pulled out of that district, which most people took to mean they felt good about the district, but given the margins in previous elections, including a Red year in 2014, I wouldn't be surprised if their internals came back bad and they walked away.  

 

There's 2 types of triage - "lost cause" triage (aka, IA-1, KS-3, AZ-2, CO-6, , WV-Senate, MN-Gov, etc.) and "in the bag" triage (like ND-Senate).  They sure pulled out of TX-23 screaming it was the 2nd one.

[Aqua Buddha 14,511]

I've been in SA all week on bidness.  DNC is still carpet bombing the market with ads while the RNC seems to have nothing.  (Hurd has his own ads.)

Take that for what it's worth.

[GopherRock 1,765]

Sometimes, the fact that we're discussing live Senate underdogs in Tennessee and Texas (and potential Democrat control of said chamber despite the map) confuses the fuck out of me. 

[Js1 85,109]

The Montana At Large is pretty competitive right now.

Kinda dumb of Trump to remind everyone the incumbent assaulted a reporter.

[Bateshorn 9,899]

12 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I've been in SA all week on bidness.  DNC is still carpet bombing the market with ads while the RNC seems to have nothing.  (Hurd has his own ads.)

Take that for what it's worth.

Are you seeing much in the way of Yard signs?   The fact that the GOP made so much noise about pulling out of TX-23 because it was in the bag made me go "hmmmm" 

Edited October 19, 2018 by Bateshorn

[Js1 85,109]

THIS. IS. AWESOME. 

 

[Message Board User 12,389]

 

[Aqua Buddha 14,511]

25 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Are you seeing much in the way of Yard signs?   The fact that the GOP made so much noise about pulling out of TX-23 because it was in the bag made me go "hmmmm" 

Not many yard signs for either Hurd or Cruz, although Cruz has some.  Jones has a decent amount but we haven't been in the part of town they're running.

Beto has signs everywhere, even in the Republican leaning parts of town.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

18 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Not many yard signs for either Hurd or Cruz, although Cruz has some.  Jones has a decent amount but we haven't been in the part of town they're running.

Beto has signs everywhere, even in the Republican leaning parts of town.

The Hurd race has been one of the weirdest ones of the cycle. That district is huge ( land wise) and filled with primarily Hispanics. It seems unlikely that they would constantly go to the polls every 2 years and elect a dorky moderate black guy, but it continues to happen every single cycle. I don’t live near that district at all and I don’t understand why it seems so safe for Hurd, but I wouldn’t get your hopes up on this one.

i live in Fort Worth and I’ve been seeing so many Ads attacking Pete Sessions who isn’t even in my district. The guy sucks and I’m glad they’re going after him, but I’m skeptical that the Dems are going to even pickup one seat in the house from Texas. The house most likely still flips tho.

[Js1 85,109]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The TX-23 Race confuses me as well and I think lends some credence to the conservative oversampling in the NYT/Sienna poll. That district has been RAZOR thin under the current lines since 2012, and now, suddenly it's turned into an R+15 district?  That just demographically makes no sense.

Nate Cohn just tweeted that their polling shows Democrats with a one-point edge in competitive districts where whites are more than 85% of the electorate but.... Republicans are +3 in diverse, Sun Belt districts. None of that makes sense to me.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Cohn just tweeted that their polling shows Democrats with a one-point edge in competitive districts where whites are more than 85% of the electorate but.... Republicans are +3 in diverse, Sun Belt districts. None of that makes sense to me.

It seems abundantly clear that Hispanics are extending a huge middle finger to the Democratic Party this cycle. A lot of house races that should be sewn up for the Dems are competitive and in doubt. Look at Florida for instance.

do Hispanics actually like turning on their TVs and hearing the president call people they might be related to “rapists and bad hombres”. It makes me think that they just hate politics in general or they’re a bunch of hypocrities who enjoy “pulling the ladder up” either way it makes no sense to me at all. Very disappointing.

[Storm the Field 5,273]

Looks like Shalala might not blow Fl-27 after all. NY Upshot live poll has her ahead 45/36.

[Js1 85,109]

Hopefully her race gets called before her 8:45pm bedtime

[Aqua Buddha 14,511]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It seems abundantly clear that Hispanics are extending a huge middle finger to the Democratic Party this cycle. A lot of house races that should be sewn up for the Dems are competitive and in doubt. Look at Florida for instance.

do Hispanics actually like turning on their TVs and hearing the president call people they might be related to “rapists and bad hombres”. It makes me think that they just hate politics in general or they’re a bunch of hypocrities who enjoy “pulling the ladder up” either way it makes no sense to me at all. Very disappointing.

Considering they haven't even voted yet, that's premature.  Another explanation could be they're difficult to poll because they trend younger and don't have landlines and prefer texting over phone calls.

[sidis 9,750]

12 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

You have to admit: that ad makes a good point.  What struck me during the confirmation was all the white Democrats like Corey Booker, Mazie Hirono, and Kamala Harris attacking innocent black man Brett Kavanaugh.  

i just looked up the pac that paid for that radio ad called "black americans for the president's agenda" and its list of donors.

lulz, of the list of people on the list, i could not find a single black person through google.  of the ones i did find, they were largely retired white males.

https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgave2.php?cmte=C00668517&cycle=2018

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It seems abundantly clear that Hispanics are extending a huge middle finger to the Democratic Party this cycle. A lot of house races that should be sewn up for the Dems are competitive and in doubt. Look at Florida for instance.

do Hispanics actually like turning on their TVs and hearing the president call people they might be related to “rapists and bad hombres”. It makes me think that they just hate politics in general or they’re a bunch of hypocrities who enjoy “pulling the ladder up” either way it makes no sense to me at all. Very disappointing.

Mexican-Americans trend pretty much poor white people values and are pretty racist against illegals (and other races) in much the same way.

I remember doing a case study in grad school about how Nascar poured a ton of consulting money and research to drive into new markets and grow their brand and revenues, and the studies came back pretty much that Mexican-Americans (not illegals) are the perfect untapped demographic because they found that generally speaking they:

• were family oriented/family values
• organized around a patriarch, whose children's sports/hobbies would follow what the men in the family enjoy/do
• were a culture that appreciated automobiles/cars in the "car culture" kind of way
• liked to drink beer
• liked sports

Basically Mexican-Americans fit the profile of the lower-middle class white people demographic who love Trump. They love to hunt and drink beer and be racist among others and even themselves (like a mini caste system).

Oh, also the big disconnect for Nascar for anyone wondering, is that Mexicans didn't feel like the sport was welcoming to them. Which might also ring true with the GOP and how they aren't welcoming of a group that is so perfect for them in their values. If the GOP is smart they figure out how to harness that voting bloc.

[Patrick Bateman 3,903]

2 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Mexican-Americans trend pretty much poor white people values and are pretty racist against illegals (and other races) in much the same way.

I remember doing a case study in grad school about how Nascar poured a ton of consulting money and research to drive into new markets and grow their brand and revenues, and the studies came back pretty much that Mexican-Americans (not illegals) are the perfect untapped demographic because they found that generally speaking they:

• were family oriented/family values
• organized around a patriarch, whose children's sports/hobbies would follow what the men in the family enjoy/do
• were a culture that appreciated automobiles/cars in the "car culture" kind of way
• liked to drink beer
• liked sports

Basically Mexican-Americans fit the profile of the lower-middle class white people demographic who love Trump. They love to hunt and drink beer and be racist among others and even themselves (like a mini caste system).

Oh, also the big disconnect for Nascar for anyone wondering, is that Mexicans didn't feel like the sport was welcoming to them. Which might also ring true with the GOP and how they aren't welcoming of a group that is so perfect for them in their values. If the GOP is smart they figure out how to harness that voting bloc.

They also tend to be poorly educated, tend to be raised and/or devout Catholic, and aren't used to civic duty.... I think this is more to the point.  They aren't really progressive, especially the older generations.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

They also tend to be poorly educated, tend to be raised and/or devout Catholic, and aren't used to civic duty.... I think this is more to the point.  They aren't really progressive, especially the older generations.

Again, this sounds like the lower-middle / lower-class white folk (especially those with Irish/Italian/Polish Catholic backgrounds)

[Buzzrock 14,871]

Make Mexican-Americans Great Again!

[Biff Tannen 45,494]

21 minutes ago, sidis said:

i just looked up the pac that paid for that radio ad called "black americans for the president's agenda" and its list of donors.

lulz, of the list of people on the list, i could not find a single black person through google.  of the ones i did find, they were largely retired white males.

https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgave2.php?cmte=C00668517&cycle=2018

not really lulz worthy.  seems pretty despicable actually.

[David Dennison 18,656]

40 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It seems abundantly clear that Hispanics are extending a huge middle finger to the Democratic Party this cycle. A lot of house races that should be sewn up for the Dems are competitive and in doubt. Look at Florida for instance.

do Hispanics actually like turning on their TVs and hearing the president call people they might be related to “rapists and bad hombres”. It makes me think that they just hate politics in general or they’re a bunch of hypocrities who enjoy “pulling the ladder up” either way it makes no sense to me at all. Very disappointing.

It's women who are going to fuck Republicans.

[G650 14,106]

26 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

 If the GOP is smart they figure out how to harness that voting bloc.

I mean, W had it rolling that way until the GOP utterly fucked it.

[Brisketexan 104,605]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean, W had it rolling that way until the GOP utterly fucked it.

This.  It was even referenced in party precinct meetings back in the day.  The first wave of open xenophobes first showed up, and they were quieted and kept on the margins by reference to W and his vision for the party.  But I remember our precinct chair telling me "but we won't be able to hold 'em off forever."  And he was right.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  It was even referenced in party precinct meetings back in the day.  The first wave of open xenophobes first showed up, and they were quieted and kept on the margins by reference to W and his vision for the party.  But I remember our precinct chair telling me "but we won't be able to hold 'em off forever."  And he was right.

Your Travis County GOP chair is a loon, if memory serves.

[Brisketexan 104,605]

5 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Your Travis County GOP chair is a loon, if memory serves.

1 -- the precinct meeting I am referring to was 20 years ago or so.

2 - that was our FORMER county party chair, from just 2 yrs ago.  He lasted a few months.  But man, those were entertaining months.

[High Plains Drifter 10,976]

On 10/10/2018 at 8:45 PM, Gil Bang said:

 

as far as I can tell from where I sit, Hurd isn't a complete dickhead, unlike most of his GOP buddies.

 

Oh, no. He's a total fucking dickhead. He's just very nice about it. He votes right down the line with the Magots.

[Js1 85,109]

2 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Oh, no. He's a total fucking dickhead. He's just very nice about it. He votes right down the line with the Magots.

He's the Jeff Flake of the House.  Total concern troll until it comes time to vote and then he falls right in line with leadership/Trump.

[Laxtonto 11,932]

Im curious about everyones viewpoint on the early voting numbers and more importantly declared affiliations and turnouts.

Every time I see a state brought up, it seems like Rs are real close to their 2016 turnout numbers (and well above their 2014 numbers) while the Ds are lagging behind significantly their 2016 #s and more interesting slightly behind their 2014 #s.

Historically the Ds have done very well with the early vote. If they do not, what does that mean? Is the Ds enthusiasm a mirage? Do we think that they will instead all show up on Nov 6th?

If this type of early voting trend continues, it would be a major hit to the Democrats.

Right now as an example NC

Quote

North Carolina through 2 days of early voting:

2018

257,325 ballots cast

111,325 Democrats (43.3%)

78,554 Republicans (30.5%)

66,873 Unafilliated (26.0%)

 

2016

321,666 ballots cast

162,494 Democrats (50.5%)

82,803 Republicans (25.7%)

75,674 Unaffiliated (23.5%)

2014

236,383 ballots cast

117,002 Democrats (49.4%)

71,650 Republican (30.3%)

47,392 Unaffiliated (20.0%)

 

Democrats DOWN 7.7% from 2016, 6.1% from 2014

Republicans UP 4.8% from 2016, 0.2% from 2014

Unaffiliateds UP 2.5% from 2016, 6% from 2014

Any thoughts? Any ideas of what is going on?

[Bozo_Casanova 26,279]

47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- the precinct meeting I am referring to was 20 years ago or so.

2 - that was our FORMER county party chair, from just 2 yrs ago.  He lasted a few months.  But man, those were entertaining months.

Yep, Rob Morrow was seriously entertaining. I feel like he was the Chairman they deserved and his kookiness was at least amusing. 

Watching the very smart and erstwhile traditionally conservative new Travis GOP chairman's slow but inexorable drift towards Trumpism is just depressing. He's a good guy and he doesn't seem like he's having any fun. Can you imagine being a professional Republican with a conscience right now? Seems like a bad gig, the mirror must be a rough sight. 

Edited October 19, 2018 by Bozo_Casanova

[Hank Kingsley 20,696]

13 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Im curious about everyones viewpoint on the early voting numbers and more importantly declared affiliations and turnouts.

Every time I see a state brought up, it seems like Rs are real close to their 2016 turnout numbers (and well above their 2014 numbers) while the Ds are lagging behind significantly their 2016 #s and more interesting slightly behind their 2014 #s.

Historically the Ds have done very well with the early vote. If they do not, what does that mean? Is the Ds enthusiasm a mirage? Do we think that they will instead all show up on Nov 6th?

If this type of early voting trend continues, it would be a major hit to the Democrats.

Right now as an example NC

Any thoughts? Any ideas of what is going on?

 

[Pancho 44,475]

21 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Im curious about everyones viewpoint on the early voting numbers and more importantly declared affiliations and turnouts.

Every time I see a state brought up, it seems like Rs are real close to their 2016 turnout numbers (and well above their 2014 numbers) while the Ds are lagging behind significantly their 2016 #s and more interesting slightly behind their 2014 #s.

Historically the Ds have done very well with the early vote. If they do not, what does that mean? Is the Ds enthusiasm a mirage? Do we think that they will instead all show up on Nov 6th?

If this type of early voting trend continues, it would be a major hit to the Democrats.

Right now as an example NC

Any thoughts? Any ideas of what is going on?

North Carolina has explicitly suppressed votes by taking away voting locations in minority areas because that’s what republicans like to do to minorities.

thats your explanation for that state... 

[Celery Man 20,886]

It's women who are going to fuck Republicans.

That’s what they keep telling themselves but I just don’t know if it is going to happen for them.

[Js1 85,109]

5 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

 

 

That’s what they keep telling themselves but I just don’t know if it is going to happen for them.

 

They prefer to rape

Edited October 19, 2018 by Js1

[Pig Bellmont 8,691]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hispanics are extending a huge middle finger to the Democratic Party

lol - I think this is called wish casting 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

51 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Im curious about everyones viewpoint on the early voting numbers and more importantly declared affiliations and turnouts.

Every time I see a state brought up, it seems like Rs are real close to their 2016 turnout numbers (and well above their 2014 numbers) while the Ds are lagging behind significantly their 2016 #s and more interesting slightly behind their 2014 #s.

Historically the Ds have done very well with the early vote. If they do not, what does that mean? Is the Ds enthusiasm a mirage? Do we think that they will instead all show up on Nov 6th?

If this type of early voting trend continues, it would be a major hit to the Democrats.

Right now as an example NC

Any thoughts? Any ideas of what is going on?

It’s still early.

still over 2 weeks to go. Wait for more data.

[Bateshorn 9,899]

Can you provide a link on those early voting numbers?  Also, doesn't tell you much other than party registration.

Also, Pancho is right:  A significant portion of Dem voters in North Carolina have minimal access to early voting.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Bateshorn

[Brew 3,045]

4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

That Tennessee race confuses the fuck out of me, as well. 

There isn’t anything confusing about it. They ran the 1 Democrat in the state with name recognition that most everyone likes against a Republican woman that most people in the middle find extreme. There isn’t any sort of political shift in the state, Bredesen just feels like a more middle of the road selection than a true D/R. As Nashville contrinues to grow, there may be some shifts but not yet.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Brew