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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Jack Burton

Jack Burton 35

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

 


There’s a real story but now it’s being sensationalized. That linked Salon article says the senior bus referenced earlier was organized by Black Lives Matter.

 

I think it's Black Voters Matter, not black lives matter. Either way, shouldn't make a difference in being acceptable.

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,356

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Bad for Republicans and polling may not capture these people. Thank you Trump for inspiring people to vote against Republicans 

 

This is what I was expecting but cautiously optimistic this is taking place.  After 2016, nothing is certain.

If this plays out like I think it will, Republicans will be crying about the polls being so wrong for the next two years. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Lurch

Lurch 5,921

Posted
Posted

I’m concerned that the won’t-admit-it Trump supporting GOP voters is even higher than 2016. He and his party are CLEARLY more embarrassing than they were two years ago. I think my parents, for example, are loath to discuss their support for the GOP right now, but I know they’ll straight ticket for it.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,132

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Lurch said:

I’m concerned that the won’t-admit-it Trump supporting GOP voters is even higher than 2016. He and his party are CLEARLY more embarrassing than they were two years ago. I think my parents, for example, are loath to discuss their support for the GOP right now, but I know they’ll straight ticket for it.

100% going to be the case. 100%.

I know a few never-Trumpers who are going to love hammering "TRUMP!" in 2020 because they hate the libs so god damned much.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19,331

Posted
Posted (edited)

If the 75 emails a day I get are to be believed, MJ Hegar is coming up a little short on her fundraising. I saw my first John Carter TV ad yesterday, I'm paraphrasing but not by much..."Sure MJ Hegar is a decorated veteran, but she's also a ...DEMOCRAT...like NANCY PELOSI...and OBAMA...and she wants to RAISE YOUR TAXES....OPEN BORDERS...KEEP TEXAS RED!!!" 

Edited by Pescado_Rojo
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gmr548

gmr548 16,509

Posted
Posted
If the 75 emails a day I get are to be believed, MJ Hegar is coming up a little short on her fundraising. I saw my first John Carter TV ad yesterday, I'm paraphrasing but not by much..."Sure MJ Hegar is a decorated veteran, but she's also a ...DEMOCRAT...like NANCY PELOSI...and OBAMA...and she wants to RAISE YOUR TAXES....OPEN BORDERS...KEEP TEXAS RED!!!" 
Saw that ad today. Tame as negative ads go but very aggy, pandering to the bottom of the barrel of the electorate. It will work.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14,508

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

One of the scariest parts of the reality we are now living is that 30-40% of the voting population is convinced that if they do lose it is due to a conspiracy.  I'm afraid they will never admit defeat if it does come via an election.  

Donald Trump paved the way for that in 2016.  Had Hillary beaten him, he would have claimed it was "rigged."  Did you forget that?

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Js1 said:

high Clark county turnout is bad for Heller. 

Is Clark county Las Vegas?

ive been following this election cycle very closely because I want to see trump lose so badly. I remember when I looked at the Nevada primary numbers earlier this year,  the vote totals for Rosen and the Republican side of the ticket were very close overall, but Hellers Republican opponent took a lot of votes from him in Las Vegas.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,412

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is Clark county Las Vegas?

ive been following this election cycle very closely because I want to see trump lose so badly. I remember when I looked at the Nevada primary numbers earlier this year,  the vote totals for Rosen and the Republican side of the ticket were very close overall, but Hellers Republican opponent took a lot of votes from him in Las Vegas.

Yes, Las Vegas,   I believe Clark county is more than 2/3 of the population of the entire state.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

On the senate front, 

 

indiana and Montana are holding up surprisingly well as of this moment. Repubs can’t seem to crack Donnelly and tester. Heitkamp , Beto, and Bredesen are probably goners, but sinema, mccaskill, and Nelson are hanging tough.

I prefer to think of it in terms of Republicans have to win ND, TN, and TX to hold a 50-50 majority. I like the odds of the Democrats winning at least one of those races.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

I hope this makes them weak in the bowels. That queasy feeling that I felt in 2010. It was Chad Fuck I think that asked what we were thinking going into that year.

well, I was hoping against it, but I knew in my gut that the shit was about to hit the fan. That spiraling feeling that shit was about to go sideways and there was not one goddamn thing you could do to stop it. Like going sideways down the road after you got hit. All you can do is hang on and hope to survive.

I hope that's what they are feeling right fucking now. That sick queasy knowing that it is going to be bad and you can't do a damn thing to stop it.

 

edit: I didn't want to go back there. It took a lot of thinking over it to get there. That was a dark night.

Edited by cactusflinthead
mo stuff
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I prefer to think of it in terms of Republicans have to win ND, TN, and TX to hold a 50-50 majority. I like the odds of the Democrats winning at least one of those races.

I know it’s pathetic, but I’m not even thinking about the majority in the senate at this point. I think it’s long gone. I’m hoping 52R-48D is the worst we can do. 

 

ND and TX seem locked up for repubs. It’s hard to get a read on Tennessee, but they seem pretty loyal to trump. Florida might get worse because of cue ball rick Scott being plastered on everyone’s tv with his stupid navy hat helping hurricane victims. Mccaskill is in the fight of her life in Missouri. I think sinema is behind in Arizona. Thankfully, we have received good news in Nevada tonight that one was looking bad before the voting #’s came in. The Dems just need to fight like hell this year and suffer no worse than 52-48 minority. They would have 2 really good opportunities to flip the senate in 2020 and 2022 because of the map. 

 

Gotta get the freaking house tho to put the breaks on trumps hateful agenda and get as many governorships / statehouses as possible to undue some extremely terrible gerrymanders in favor of the GOP. I think we can win a lot of it, but just need to get enough to slow down trump.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,412

Posted
Posted

PACs are still bringing money into Texas to support Cruz when they could be spending it on tighter races elsewhere.  Tells me that they see a potential for Beto to do something to make it close.   I don’t see Beto winning unless he somehow produces the greatest gotv ever.    And the complacency of Cruz supporters to not show up because it’s a done deal.

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1,386

Posted
Posted

Greatest GOTV ever is a real possibility. Also, Cruz is really unlikeable. I can't imagine there's a lot of enthusiasm even among supporters. That combined with the lack of other competitive statewide races may mean Repubs stay home. But the nationalization of the election will probably make that wishful thinking.

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Ragnarok

Ragnarok 103

Posted
Posted

Mid-terms have been nationalized to the point that I just can't see Republicans losing the Senate in 4 of the 6 tossup states.  If they win in Montana, Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri, it is 54-46.  That's what I think is likely.  Still close in Nevada and Florida, but those aren't red states like the others. '

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9,899

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Js1 said:

high Clark county turnout is bad for Heller. 

Also, for those new to this: Jon Ralston is THE GUY to follow for NV politics.  

 

Also, I’d slow your roll on Texas is a lock talk.  If the GOP is still spending money in the expensive Texas markets, it’s because the internals are telling them Beto is still in it.  Conversely, there’s a reason they are cutting back advertising in ND. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,279

Posted
Posted
Also, for those new to this: Jon Ralston is THE GUY to follow for NV politics.  
 
Also, I’d slow your roll on Texas is a lock talk.  If the GOP is still spending money in the expensive Texas markets, it’s because the internals are telling them Beto is still in it.  Conversely, there’s a reason they are cutting back advertising in ND. 

John Carter is running TV. Roger fucking Williams is having to make commercials. That’s how tough this cycle is.
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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

Posted
Posted
 


It’s a reason to optimistic, but cautiously so. The Dems have been pushing early voting and vote by mail hard. I’ve delivered about 200 vote by mail applications to houses, and received a couple of them in my mail. The early voting numbers may be a reflection of how Dems are voting more than how many are voting.
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troph

troph 24,562

Posted
Posted

Beto will have the best GOTV machine Texas Democrats have had in my 25 years of being of voting age. That’s a fact. It will be a GOAT effort and outcome. The question is will it be enough - and if it isn’t, I’ll be in a hole for a while. And bc of that I’ll admit I’m bracing myself for the loss.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45,494

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, troph said:

Beto will have the best GOTV machine Texas Democrats have had in my 25 years of being of voting age. That’s a fact. It will be a GOAT effort and outcome. The question is will it be enough - and if it isn’t, I’ll be in a hole for a while. And bc of that I’ll admit I’m bracing myself for the loss.

If this isn't enough, nothing will be.  I'll go straight to the ledge and enjoy a scotch.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,279

Posted
Posted
Beto will have the best GOTV machine Texas Democrats have had in my 25 years of being of voting age. That’s a fact. It will be a GOAT effort and outcome. The question is will it be enough - and if it isn’t, I’ll be in a hole for a while. And bc of that I’ll admit I’m bracing myself for the loss.

Faint praise indeed, and it may not be enough, but it won’t be for lack of effort. As far as I’m concerned, his campaign needs to be the model for rebuilding the TDP.
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, troph said:

Beto will have the best GOTV machine Texas Democrats have had in my 25 years of being of voting age. That’s a fact. It will be a GOAT effort and outcome. The question is will it be enough - and if it isn’t, I’ll be in a hole for a while. And bc of that I’ll admit I’m bracing myself for the loss.

 

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

If this isn't enough, nothing will be.  I'll go straight to the ledge and enjoy a scotch.

You both need to stop fretting and pick up the phone and make some calls, or head to your nearest campaign office and start knocking on doors. Then, you need to get ready to do it all over again two years from now. 

Beto is one of the better ones, for sure, but lots of Dems across the country are raising shitloads of money and thousands of people are volunteering for the first time ever.

Trump and the rest of the GOP are the real motivators.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,424

Posted
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Also, I’d slow your roll on Texas is a lock talk.  If the GOP is still spending money in the expensive Texas markets, it’s because the internals are telling them Beto is still in it.  Conversely, there’s a reason they are cutting back advertising in ND. 

Cross-posting, but Trump, Pence, Trump Jr, Ricky Perry, John Cornyn, and Sean Hannity are coming to Texas to campaign for Cruz.  

That’s some serious firepower, and that only happens if the internal polling is bad.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
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