2018 - Elections and Trends

[GRHorn 105]

5 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

reminds me of people who say "I'm not racist, but this one time..."

Never heard that one. You must hang out with a lot of racists. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33887]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Never heard that one. You must hang out with a lot of racists. 

Unfortunately having grown up in rural Texas, I have, and have subsequently removed them from my life. Thanks making assumptions about my character, though. You seem like an awesome person.

And I call bullshit on never having heard anyone say that. It's one of the more caricatured phrases out there.

[Lagunamadre 1975]

27 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

28 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 
With this and the bombing, now shit's getting interesting...
 
 
 
 

Could you imagine Trump in a financial crisis? Holy shit.

Advisor: Mr. President we are in a full financial meltdown. 

Trump: Easy, just declare bankruptcy, I do it all the time, works like a breeze. 

Advisor: Uhhhh, ummmm, uhhhh. Mr. President it doesn't work like that...

[Js1 85534]

Quote

Morning Consult: Voters Aren’t Hearing a Lot About the Issues They Prioritize (registered voters are 2x as likely to hear about Warren's DNA test or Trump's 'horseface' tweet as they were to hear about record budget deficit numbers or GOP's new plans to repeal the ACA)

Omg what? You mean the media is just responding to Trump instead of the actual issues, then concern trolling that the Democrats have no fucking midterm message because all that's being talked about or asked to candidates (by them) is DNA tests and horseface tweets?

[Biff Tannen 45712]

5 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

Advisor: Mr. President we are in a full financial meltdown. 

Trump: Easy, just declare bankruptcy, I do it all the time, works like a breeze. 

Advisor: Uhhhh, ummmm, uhhhh. Mr. President it doesn't work like that...

I'd give this scenario greater than a 50% probability.

[horncyclist 1391]

 
With this and the bombing, now shit's getting interesting...
 
 
 
 

Lot of close races. The chickens keep coming home to roost and you could see a blue Tsunami.

[GRHorn 105]

9 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Unfortunately having grown up in rural Texas, I have, and have subsequently removed them from my life. Thanks making assumptions about my character, though. You seem like an awesome person.

And I call bullshit on never having heard anyone say that. It's one of the more caricatured phrases out there.

I too grew up in rural Texas and never once heard that line. East Texas?

[Voldemort86 2259]

I hope the very high turnout in Dallas means Pete Sessions is screwed. Fuck that guy for single handedly stonewalling weed reform in the house. The bills would have a high likelihood of passing and he would use his ability as chairman of the house rules committee to make sure they don’t go to the house floor for a vote. He needs to go.

Edited October 24, 2018 by Voldemort86

[tantric superman 4667]

Just got some mailers from Sessions and agree, Fuck That Guy.  Nothing but paranod Pelosi bullshit.

These guys have no fucking pride.  Their bogeyman is a 110 pound lady space cadet. 

Edited October 24, 2018 by tantric superman

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 minute ago, tantric superman said:

Just got some mailers from Sessions and agree, Fuck That Guy.  Nothing but paranod Pelosi bullshit.

These guys have no fucking pride.  Their bogeyman is a 110 pound lady space cadet. 

Make sure you show up and vote against him, his race is very close. I would if I was in his district. I’m in Fort Worth tho.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Good news on real clear politics......

the governor map continues to improve for the democrats.

race ratings changes :

Alaska -  Likely GOP to Leans GOP

South Dakota - leans GOP to tossup ( Wtf?)

and the big one...... 

Florida - Tossup to lean democrat

 The Dems have only 16 governorships right now, but they could end up with as many as 25 after the election. We could use a lot of the new governorships to our advantage in redistricting and the house map would be a lot more favorable in 4 years.

[retread 2951]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89779]

41 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Those invalidated votes could come into play....

If Kemp had it in the bag, he wouldn’t be putting so much effort into voter suppression.  I half-expect he will ignore the court ruling. 

[tantric superman 4667]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Make sure you show up and vote against him, his race is very close. I would if I was in his district. I’m in Fort Worth tho.

I did.  I actually appeared in one of Allred's mailers.  If I can get some work done over the next couple of days I may try to do some walking/calling for Allred next week.

The guys I really want to win in my district are running for state office.  Nathan Johnson (Senate) and John Turner (House).  Lisa Luby Ryan is a wingnut moron and Don Huffines is just an evil sonofabitch. 

[Js1 85534]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Good news on real clear politics......

the governor map continues to improve for the democrats.

race ratings changes :

Alaska -  Likely GOP to Leans GOP

South Dakota - leans GOP to tossup ( Wtf?)

and the big one...... 

Florida - Tossup to lean democrat

 The Dems have only 16 governorships right now, but they could end up with as many as 25 after the election. We could use a lot of the new governorships to our advantage in redistricting and the house map would be a lot more favorable in 4 years.

A nonpartisan (non-campaign) poll had the SD GOV race 45-45

[Js1 85534]

Will @zork be coming by to provide updates on republican rapist Adam Laxalt like he is v concerned about Keith Ellison? 

 

[Brisketexan 105276]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Kemp had it in the bag, he wouldn’t be putting so much effort into voter suppression.  I half-expect he will ignore the court ruling. 

You need to double your expectations.

Kemp will win the race by the 1-2% of voters that he's purged.  It's already a stolen election.  Anything that could possibly get in the way of that theft will be ignored, and by the time it's over, it'll be too late.

Kemp is winning.

But it will unquestionably be a stolen race, as the margin will be less than the number of purged votes.  We're going to see our first legitimate election crisis in a LONG time happen in Georgia in a few weeks.  We'll see of Georgians have the stomach for the fight they're going to have to wage to have a fair election result.

[zork 629]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Will @zork be coming by to provide updates on republican rapist Adam Laxalt like he is v concerned about Keith Ellison? 

 

Hadn't seen that story.  By all means investigate.  Corey Booker as well, right?.

[atomheartbevo 89779]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

But it will unquestionably be a stolen race, as the margin will be less than the number of purged votes.  We're going to see our first legitimate election crisis in a LONG time happen in Georgia in a few weeks.  We'll see of Georgians have the stomach for the fight they're going to have to wage to have a fair election result.

 

1. He will be seen as stealing the race because the margin is too close, and too many actions meant to discourage or disenfranchise voters
2. Small groups of Georgians start protesting here and there
3. Outsiders come in (ACLU, NAACP, etc.)
4. Cops will put the beatdown on #2 or #3 or both.  
5. Shit goes down and we see riots approaching the level of LA in ‘92.
6. Kemp and the GA leadership in general, Trump, etc. freak out and/or stoke the flames (Trump will probably have a name for them that isn’t too popular) and bring in the National Guard, federal law enforcement etc,   
7. Riots easily surpass ‘92.  

I’m not familiar enough with Georgia to know if that happens, that’s just a wild guess. 

[Pancho 44966]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

That’s a pretty solid line.  

[Texas73 421]

4 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I too grew up in rural Texas and never once heard that line. East Texas?

I grew up in rural east Texas and I've heard that line plenty of times. The town I grew up in had no blacks and there is a reason why.  Racism.

[Lurch 5931]

That’s a pretty solid line.  

Really well executed

[Js1 85534]

Sure Jan

 

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

57 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

1. He will be seen as stealing the race because the margin is too close, and too many actions meant to discourage or disenfranchise voters
2. Small groups of Georgians start protesting here and there
3. Outsiders come in (ACLU, NAACP, etc.)
4. Cops will put the beatdown on #2 or #3 or both.  
5. Shit goes down and we see riots approaching the level of LA in ‘92.
6. Kemp and the GA leadership in general, Trump, etc. freak out and/or stoke the flames (Trump will probably have a name for them that isn’t too popular) and bring in the National Guard, federal law enforcement etc,   
7. Riots easily surpass ‘92.  

I’m not familiar enough with Georgia to know if that happens, that’s just a wild guess. 

You're forgetting something.

Republicans/Trump will tell us the Congressional elections were rigged and we should ignore the outcome but we should respect the rule of law as it pertains to the Georgia elections.

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

25 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

I knew nothing about Gillum until a few months ago but he's the fucking hammer.  Very solid delivery and knows how to bring it without being insulting.  Dude has run a great campaign.

[GRHorn 105]

21 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

I grew up in rural east Texas and I've heard that line plenty of times. The town I grew up in had no blacks and there is a reason why.  Racism.

That’s what I figured. I grew up by the border. Two totally different places. 

[Patrick Bateman 3920]

40 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

Saw this earlier..... DeSantis looked like he was out on his feet.  Needed a TKO to be called.  I sort of wanted Beto to do this more and earlier with Cruz.  

[GSU&UT 1798]

Gillium is doing exactly what needs to be done, drive enthusiasm and not try to appeal to this supposed giant plurality of centrists that immediately get turned off if you dare call out the GOP's bullshit.

[gmr548 16608]

I knew nothing about Gillum until a few months ago but he's the fucking hammer.  Very solid delivery and knows how to bring it without being insulting.  Dude has run a great campaign.

This. I've been really impressed with him. Progressive policy with the spine and charisma needed to back it up.

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[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[Gil Bang 26000]

Is that FL debate clip from tonight?

 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

And the follow up

 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[GSU&UT 1798]

Georgia is at 88.6% of its EV total with still around 30% of voters not voting in 2014. Tomorrow we will eclipse or get very close to the entirety of the EV total in 2014 with the entirety of next week still in EV.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33887]

hopefully Texas, Georgia, and Florida send the message to the GOP that we're tired of their shit

[Voldemort86 2259]

Detrumpis is in trouble. Gillum has led almost every single poll. Everyone knows the repubs are terrible when it comes to protecting the environment and that state is currently suffering an environmental crisis. A big part of Florida’s revenue comes from tourism and people aren’t going to want to visit nasty beaches with dead fish / marine wild life. Republicans have controlled the state since the late 90’s and they get ALL the blame. Meanwhile, hurricanes are getting stronger these days due to global warming. You’d have to be a TOTAL idiot to vote repub this year in Florida.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

Detrumpis is in trouble. Gillum has led almost every single poll. Everyone knows the repubs are terrible when it comes to protecting the environment and that state is currently suffering an environmental crisis. A big part of Florida’s revenue comes from tourism and people aren’t going to want to visit nasty beaches with dead fish / marine wild life. Republicans have controlled the state since the late 90’s and they get ALL the blame. Meanwhile, hurricanes are getting stronger these days due to global warming. You’d have to be a TOTAL idiot to vote repub this year in Florida.

Well, it’s Florida, so....


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[Nice Guy Eddie 13522]

5 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

hopefully Texas, Georgia, and Florida send the message to the GOP that we're tired of their shit

The real message to the gop should be to stop putting up bad candidates.  It’s a joke that Cruz is even having to campaign more than a handful of events.   The TX gop senate candidate should be working about as hard as Abbott is right now.  How many dozens of candidates could have been put up to easily win?    Instead they are having to spend 10s of millions to keep Betos chances below 20%.

Cruz will most likely win but the gop should be trying to understand how to get him to not run for senate in 2024.

[atomheartbevo 89779]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

You're forgetting something.

Republicans/Trump will tell us the Congressional elections were rigged and we should ignore the outcome but we should respect the rule of law as it pertains to the Georgia elections.

Interesting article about Kemp's actions - basically the Dems in Georgia are not only prepared for shenanigans, including having plenty of lawyers on hand in contested counties, but they have been assuming from the start that the GOP would try to suppress voting, and are taking into account that they will lose a certain percentage of votes to voter suppression, and they aren't worried about getting new voters registered, but getting people who come out sporadically, to actually vote.

https://www.theroot.com/is-that-all-you-got-georgia-organizations-were-ready-f-1829702677

Quote

Just to recap, the Abrams campaign expected voter suppression, had organizations in place to combat it and, at least mathematically, has a path to victory that assumes thousands of voters might be purged and not find out until Election Day. Does that mean that all of the breathless coverage of Brian Crow’s vote discrimination is unnecessary? Does that mean the Abrams campaign logo is a nice brown hand holding up voters with the phrase “We Got Ya’ll” emblazoned across the front? Of course not. There is still a ton of work to do, but it does mean even in the midst of structural racism, all is not lost.

“[Kemp]’s getting desperate; that’s why he’s doing this,” says LaTosha Brown, whose organization, Black Voters Matter, helped put Doug Jones into the Senate last year from Alabama’s special election. “They pull this same trick in other places like Alabama; the difference is that Georgia is a purple state; there are enough voters to flip the state house, so they get more aggressive.”

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The real message to the gop should be to stop putting up bad candidates.  It’s a joke that Cruz is even having to campaign more than a handful of events.   The TX gop senate candidate should be working about as hard as Abbott is right now.  How many dozens of candidates could have been put up to easily win?    Instead they are having to spend 10s of millions to keep Betos chances below 20%.

Cruz will most likely win but the gop should be trying to understand how to get him to not run for senate in 2024.

The sad thing is Ted Cruz isn’t even the worst candidate on the Texas ballot. Here’s whose worse:

Dan “ potty” Patrick - the entire Texas legislative session of 2017 was a joke. The second biggest state in the country spent most of our time and attention talking about......... bathrooms. Potty Patrick wants to spearhead a bathroom bill movement all over the country. Most people go into bathrooms just to pee and get out. This guy should be locked up in an insane asylum.

Ken “indictment” Paxton - he currently has 3 indictments, he’s still running for office, and he’s probably still ahead in the polls. He’s a big part of the lawsuit currently in the courts to kill Obamacare because the repubs were too incompetent to kill it legislatively. If the lawsuit succeeds, it would throw the healthcare system into total chaos and nobody would no longer have protection for the pre existing conditions that republicans have pretended to care about for the last month or so. The fact that millions of texans would vote for a guy currently facing charges is a total freaking joke.

George P Bush- Oh no..... please not another one. Dear god.  The bush family in power makes me think of several things. Unnecessary wars, terrible responses to hurricanes, record high gas prices, and the prices of everything else going up because of it. 

 

The Texas GOP ticket reeks like asshole after Abbott, but they’re all still going to win most likely. 

Edited October 25, 2018 by Voldemort86

[HenryJames 66161]

 

[lemonlime 5503]

9 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The real message to the gop should be to stop putting up bad candidates.  It’s a joke that Cruz is even having to campaign more than a handful of events.   The TX gop senate candidate should be working about as hard as Abbott is right now.  How many dozens of candidates could have been put up to easily win?    Instead they are having to spend 10s of millions to keep Betos chances below 20%.

Cruz will most likely win but the gop should be trying to understand how to get him to not run for senate in 2024.

Where is the gop going to find these good candidates?  If you’re a person of decency right now thinking about a run for public office, you’re not doing it with the gop.   Or courting racist trumpkins to get into office.

[Js1 85534]

7 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Where is the gop going to find these good candidates?  If you’re a person of decency right now thinking about a run for public office, you’re not doing it with the gop.   Or courting racist trumpkins to get into office.

True dat.

The "good" Republicans in Texas - Sarah Davis, Joe Straus, etc. - are vilified by Patrick, Abbott, etc. as RINOS and are being primaried by Empower Texans and the Wilks Bros. to be replaced by right wing loons. 

Empower Texans dropped big fucking bucks to knock out Jason Villaba and get loons in place of Cindy Burkett and Craig Estes and in the open seats. Hell, Greg Abbott was openly campaigning in primaries against incumbents.

[Post Oak 20257]

10 hours ago, Js1 said:

Sure Jan

 

Don't bring up Dem talking points. 

Let's talk about the caravan instead

[Longhorn94 2457]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

True dat.

The "good" Republicans in Texas - Sarah Davis, Joe Straus, etc. - are vilified by Patrick, Abbott, etc. as RINOS and are being primaried by Empower Texans and the Wilks Bros. to be replaced by right wing loons. 

Empower Texans dropped big fucking bucks to knock out Jason Villaba and get loons in place of Cindy Burkett and Craig Estes and in the open seats. Hell, Greg Abbott was openly campaigning in primaries against incumbents.

I agree. Straus is a good Republican who kept the right wing loons in check for a long time. The Republicans will only get worse now that he is not seeking re-election and will no longer be speaker.

Villalba is a good one as well. I disagreed with his school marshal program but outside of that, he was a Reagan conservative. I still have no clue how he lost to that crazy Empower Texans candidate. I hope she loses the election. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, lemonlime said:

Where is the gop going to find these good candidates?  If you’re a person of decency right now thinking about a run for public office, you’re not doing it with the gop.   Or courting racist trumpkins to get into office.

Honestly, it's a tough time to be a Christian in this political environment. In my personal opinion, it is very much a "both sides" in that the right is horrible and the left is horrible. Even if the left is less horrible from a horizontal view of policies compared to GOP, they are more horrible in a deeper way on a small number of policies. Again, this is opinion and anecdote. Your experience will vary by values and community.

If you are a Christian wanting to run for office, you won't be running under the Democrat banner most likely because of some very massive chasms between biblical values and the state of modern culture (not judging, just stating the fact).

[Js1 85534]

Yeah, it's really tough to be a Christian in America.

Super difficult. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, it's really tough to be a Christian in America.

Super difficult. 

That's not what I said, though I think your sarcastic statement is true. It's super hard to be a Christian in America because of the culture we have normalized and accept, the lack of Christian accountability which leads to a weaker discipline and focus, and the sheer temptations across the board, considering we are deeply flawed in our natural state.

That said, I was specifically stating it's hard to be a Christian in American politics. Especially today when the right is so perverted and horrible. It's almost as if Christians would have to carve out their own 3rd party at this point, to remain of integrity. No almost, that is actually where it stands. The problem I guess is Christians want to be pragmatic and actually win.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Guest

[Longhorn94 2457]

5 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Honestly, it's a tough time to be a Christian in this political environment. In my personal opinion, it is very much a "both sides" in that the right is horrible and the left is horrible. Even if the left is less horrible from a horizontal view of policies compared to GOP, they are more horrible in a deeper way on a small number of policies. Again, this is opinion and anecdote. Your experience will vary by values and community.

If you are a Christian wanting to run for office, you won't be running under the Democrat banner most likely because of some very massive chasms between biblical values and the state of modern culture (not judging, just stating the fact).

Any Christian who doesn't run as a Democrat does not understand Jesus's teachings. Being pro-choice is not anti-Bible, God or Jesus. There are plenty of ways to work for alternatives to abortions, to teach sex education, to provide birth control, to improve the adoption process, and to take care of impoverished children after they are born. All of these policies and literally every single other Democratic position is in line with Jesus's teachings and Christian values.