2018 - Elections and Trends

[Longhorn94 2458]

Bottom line, we are going to get the country we deserve this election. There is no unknown. There is no both sides suck. There is either a rejection of Trump or an acceptance of what he stands for. We either make the correction to the path we are currently on or we speed it up considerably. No claims of ignorance this time. No claims of Gary Johnson. I believe we will do the right thing and correct this but I have to admit I am concerned. 

 

If you are a conservative, why would you vote for Trump? You already have your tax cut, your Supreme Court Justices, and massive deregulation. If you vote against Trump, Congress will be able to put him in check and stop the madness and any further damage to our country but will be unable to roll back any of the above conservative achievements. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

From a statistical standpoint, the races are the same:  Both Cruz and Menedez have single digit leads outside the margin of error, albeit NJ isn't as well polled.  You can come up with all the horse race analysis you want, but like the sabermetrics of bunting:  The math is indisputable.

Yeah, the GOP got the White House and the Supreme Court and gave away Earth 2, where a Clinton presidency sets them up for a possible filibuster proof majority in 2021 that allows them to complete erase the Great Society and the New Deal.

I wouldnt say its the same. A vote doesnt count until it has been made. People hate Menendez, but they don't like Hugin much either. People actually like Beto. They are going to go out to vote for him. A Menendez hater is more likely to just not vote at all.  Menendez will likely get dragged over the line by voters who want that D vote against Trump, and who are there to vote for other Ds who they actually like. 

 

[Storm the Field 5304]

NPR/Marist poll back up to +10D. This is the one that more or less set off the "Dem hopes fading" narrative when it went from +12 in mid-September to +6 at start of October. 

FWIW, 538 has them as an A-rated pollster.

 

 

[gmr548 16617]

Bottom line, we are going to get the country we deserve this election. There is no unknown. There is no both sides suck. There is either a rejection of Trump or an acceptance of what he stands for. We either make the correction to the path we are currently on or we speed it up considerably. No claims of ignorance this time. No claims of Gary Johnson. I believe we will do the right thing and correct this but I have to admit I am concerned. 
 
If you are a conservative, why would you vote for Trump? You already have your tax cut, your Supreme Court Justices, and massive deregulation. If you vote against Trump, Congress will be able to put him in check and stop the madness and any further damage to our country but will be unable to roll back any of the above conservative achievements. 

Do you even liberal tears bro?

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[Js1 85651]

 

[Biff Tannen 45752]

2 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

Bottom line, we are going to get the country we deserve this election. There is no unknown. There is no both sides suck. There is either a rejection of Trump or an acceptance of what he stands for. We either make the correction to the path we are currently on or we speed it up considerably. No claims of ignorance this time. No claims of Gary Johnson. I believe we will do the right thing and correct this but I have to admit I am concerned. 

 

If you are a conservative, why would you vote for Trump? You already have your tax cut, your Supreme Court Justices, and massive deregulation. If you vote against Trump, Congress will be able to put him in check and stop the madness and any further damage to our country but will be unable to roll back any of the above conservative achievements. 

Yep.  I'm getting closure either way.  It's kinda comforting.

[G650 14284]

17 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yep.  I'm getting closure either way.  It's kinda comforting.

100%

[sushihorn 3233]

NJ is one of the few states where Democrats are actually outperforming statewide.  Basically 15% of the D-affiliated voters who have already cast a ballot would have to support Hugin as well as independents breaking his way for Menendez to lose.  Possible but it seems like a very tall order.

[sushihorn 3233]

1 hour ago, Longhorn94 said:

Bottom line, we are going to get the country we deserve this election.

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
 H.L. Mencken

[Pancho 45180]

 

[Pancho 45180]

GRhorn and Johnny sack approve of this. Anyone I’m missing?

 

[Js1 85651]

Buffoon. Biggest red wave ever

 

[gmr548 16617]

Buffoon. Biggest red wave ever
 

Who knew both Texas Senate seats were up this year? I thought Beto and Cruz were running against one another the whole time but there's a seat for each!

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[tantric superman 4668]

Colin Allred/Pete Sessions debate yesterday morning.

Sessions just looks tired of all the bullshit. He's crabby.

Surprised Allred was as aggressive as he was, but on the other hand I guess now it's put up or shut up.

 

 

[Pancho 45180]

Wait, so ABC13 in Houston did a story on the voting machines changing votes.  They contacted the company who made those machines 20 years ago, and the company says those machines are so old they don’t even make them anymore. 

 

WHY THE FUCK ARE WE USING THEM?!?!

[Bateshorn 9942]

Good work, Texas.  Why don’t you take a long weekend and we can regroup on Tuesday.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[gmr548 16617]

2 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that this issue exists in Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Hidalgo, EP, and Cameron Counties, but has not shown up in Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Montgomery, Brazoria, Bell, Lubbock, Midland, etc...

Edited October 27, 2018 by gmr548

[Doc Sam Beckett 5800]

2 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

GRhorn and Johnny sack approve of this. Anyone I’m missing?

 

Duncan Hunter is one of the biggest sacks of shit in politics. It's mind bottling that he's so far ahead 

[Pancho 45180]

 

[cactusflinthead 27609]

 

[cactusflinthead 27609]

 

[GSU&UT 1798]

2 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

Wait, so ABC13 in Houston did a story on the voting machines changing votes.  They contacted the company who made those machines 20 years ago, and the company says those machines are so old they don’t even make them anymore. 

 

WHY THE FUCK ARE WE USING THEM?!?!

Most of these voting machines are like that in the red states that use them. They were mostly built in the early 2000s and run a version of windows that has long since been unsupported. Having your vote changed like this because of shitty the design is should immediately nullify all results, the fucking free election process in this country is supposed to be the backbone institution on which all others derive power from. I just don't know how even peaceful protest fixes such a system that has been, in the vast vast majority, corrupted by Republicans.

[horncyclist 1391]

It's insane this has been a known problem and they did shit to fix it. It doesn't matter if it's user error or software, this sort of thing should not be happening.

[GSU&UT 1798]

13 hours ago, horncyclist said:

It's insane this has been a known problem and they did shit to fix it. It doesn't matter if it's user error or software, this sort of thing should not be happening.

But switching back to paper ballots is just too much work!!! *wink wink*

Edited October 27, 2018 by GSU&UT

[Aqua Buddha 14636]

1 hour ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

Friend on my Facebook feed posted a video that he won't allow to share.  (He's black, which is sort of relevant here.)

He moved from Dallas County to Collin County.  His old voter registration was in Dallas County.  He updated his Driver's License and Voter ID to Collin County back in July.  However, Collin County claimed it wasn't "updated in the system"  The video he posted has the poll worker insisting that he go back downtown to vote.  The friend brings out utility bills and other documents proving that he lives where his DL and voter card says he lives.  Poll worker persists in telling him to go downtown.  Friend demand a provisional ballot.

[cactusflinthead 27609]

File a report with the news and another with the SoS. Raise hell.

Edit: if they have video that's even more reason to share it with the news 

Edit 2: the DMN is asking for reports like that. Go to their repost of the ProPublica article and there are links at the bottom 

Edited October 27, 2018 by cactusflinthead

[Gil Bang 26069]

2 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Duncan Hunter is one of the biggest sacks of shit in politics. It's mind bottling that he's so far ahead 

He's gonna win, and the fact that he'll be in prison won't keep him from Congress.  There's literally no law that says a prisoner can't be a congressman. 

[Brisketexan 105478]

He's gonna win, and the fact that he'll be in prison won't keep him from Congress.  There's literally no law that says a prisoner can't be a congressman. 

At this point, the only thing that would actually make sense would be a law that says congressmen HAVE to be prisoners.

[Gil Bang 26069]

Today, The Journal editorial board endorses the candidacy of Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten over incumbent Republican Steve King in the race for the U.S. House seat in Iowa's 4th District.

Those were not easy words for us to write.

In prior endorsements of King, an eight-term representative, we laid out what we respect and admire about our congressman. He is an honest, principled family man who we acknowledge reflects in his votes the positions of many, if not most 4th District constituents.

 

In spite of the criticisms we also shared in those endorsements, we believed King's strengths were enough to make him a better choice for this district than the Democratic challengers he faced in past elections.

In Scholten, however, King runs against an opponent with many strengths of his own.

Bright, articulate, personable, possessed of deep roots in this district, informed about issues important to the 4th like agriculture, and armed with a willingness to consider all sides of complex issues such as illegal immigration and work across the aisle to identify solutions to problems, Scholten offers appeal for not only Democrats, but independents and Republicans, as well, we believe.

With a candidate of Scholten's caliber on the ballot, we decided we wouldn't overlook, again, the concerns we have shared about King in the past in making an endorsement in this race this year.

We say nothing about King today we haven't said before. Time and again in this space, we have criticized him for what we view as inflammatory or questionable comments and expressed concern about the impact of those comments on our district. Each time King immerses himself in controversy, he holds up this district to ridicule and marginalizes himself within the legislative body he serves, neither of which provides benefit to Iowans who live and work here.

 

 

 

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For example, King earlier this month put himself - and, by extension, the rest of the district - in an unflattering spotlight with a tweet in support of a candidate for mayor of Toronto described in published reports as a "white nationalist" or "white supremacist." That wasn't the first time King was tied, by his words or actions, to such intolerant ugliness.

In addition, we don't view King as someone who is at all interested in reaching across the aisle to find common ground on immensely complex issues, like illegal immigration. (We want border security too, for example, but we do not believe it is either possible or practical to identify, locate and arrest or deport every individual who entered this country illegally, many of whom hold jobs important to our domestic economy.) Our point is this: We believe compromise achieved by listening and talking to one another is the only way we as a nation will effectively navigate the multiple challenges of illegal immigration.

 

As we have said before, we would prefer King spend less time trying to "save" Western civilization and making a national name for himself as a conservative leader trying to move the nation to the political right. We would rather he commit to becoming, say, a more influential congressional leader in agriculture.

Finally, we have used this space on multiple occasions to criticize King for not debating opponents and not hosting more public town halls, both of which speak to constituent accountability, but we have seen little to no inclination on his part during this campaign to change.

We aren't suggesting Scholten is a perfect candidate with whom we have no disagreements, but we believe the job of U.S. representative is more than casting votes. As a congressman, we believe Scholten would choose his words carefully, create no national controversies, bring no embarrassment to the district, seek to unite and not divide, focus his time and energy almost exclusively on issues directly impacting the lives and livelihoods of constituents, and hold regular town halls with the public. He represents changes we believe speak to the best interests of this congressional district as a whole.

King is the favorite and ahead in polls. If he wins re-election, we hope he considers the words we have written today.

If underdog Scholten springs an upset, we hope he remembers this remains largely a conservative, Republican district and we urge him to take accordingly moderate positions on issues of the day. Bottom line: We are ready and willing to give him the opportunity to show all of us in the 4th what he can do.

Edited October 27, 2018 by Gil Bang

[cactusflinthead 27609]

21 minutes ago, tjhooker said:

I was actually shocked by this story about Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states.  

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Start here https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/1085-2018-elections-and-trends/&do=findComment&comment=658520

for the discussion of this we had on Monday. Pg 75

[David Dennison 18993]

21 minutes ago, tjhooker said:

I was actually shocked by this story about Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states.  

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Texas is in that story which tells you the information contained therein is suspect.

[Mapache 1117]

21 minutes ago, tjhooker said:

I was actually shocked by this story about Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states.  

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

It's called old, retired racist farts that have plenty of time to go vote and watch Faux news all day vs folks that have jobs and actual lives to lead. As long as they make it on or before election day is all that matters.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, tjhooker said:

I was actually shocked by this story about Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states.  

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Hopefully 99% of the Fox News watching degenerates have voted by now. Most of the people who watch that channel have no lives and can vote 100x if they wanted too.

maybe the Dems will do better this weekend when people who have jobs and kids can vote ( the surburban women)

[FondrenRoad 4378]

7 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Fuck that dude. Doesnt matter who it may hurt more.  Just have an honest vote count. 

[Bateshorn 9942]

9 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

He's gonna win, and the fact that he'll be in prison won't keep him from Congress.  There's literally no law that says a prisoner can't be a congressman. 

FWIW, Congress has always expelled members convicted of a felony. But I get you’re larger point.

[berlinerbaer 678]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

FWIW, Congress has always expelled members convicted of a felony. But I get you’re larger point.

The Pubs would rather the seat be empty than filled with a Dem. Their voters know that too.

Another R put in his place won't be a real incumbent and will be vulnerable in 2020.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

interesting recent NYTimes/Siena live polls:

TX-07 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tx07-3.html

• Culberson up on Fletcher 46-45 with the undecided answering other questions similar to Democats

FL-Senate (on-going) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-flsen-3.html

• Nelson up on Scott 49-44

FL-Gov (on-going)

• Gillum up on DeSantis 48-44

NY-27 (Collins scandal) 

• Collins up 44-40 (13% undecided)   That is a large # of undecideds this late in the race.

[Mo Horn 8875]

Here's my fear... if the dems do take the house as predicted, Trump is going to go scorched earth with his tweets and rhetoric during rallies. It will be even worse is somehow the Senate flips also. There will be more bombers or incidents like today in Pittsburgh.  Brisket's prediction of violence will come to fruition.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33901]

Here's my fear... if the dems do take the house as predicted, Trump is going to go scorched earth with his tweets and rhetoric during rallies. It will be even worse is somehow the Senate flips also. There will be more bombers or incidents like today in Pittsburgh.  Brisket's prediction of violence will come to fruition.

Unfortunately i think that's true regardless of outcome. If the dems gain, he'll be scared and will ramp up the rhetoric. If the dems fail, he'll be emboldened and will ramp up the rhetoric. Congress needs to act

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/trump-2018-elections-midterms-congress-943449

Some higher level repubs are lowering expectations of keeping the house. 

At the same time, you have to wonder if the bombs sent to democrats and the shooting today in Pittsburgh count as October surprises? It sucks that these things happened, but maybe it will make people realize that trump has divided us more than any other president in modern history. 

[Celery Man 21021]

17 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

Most of these voting machines are like that in the red states that use them. They were mostly built in the early 2000s and run a version of windows that has long since been unsupported. Having your vote changed like this because of shitty the design is should immediately nullify all results, the fucking free election process in this country is supposed to be the backbone institution on which all others derive power from. I just don't know how even peaceful protest fixes such a system that has been, in the vast vast majority, corrupted by Republicans.

jtfc they run on xp?  i'm trying to think of precisely how fucking impossible it would be for me to get away with using a retired version of Windows in any capacity at all in a production environment

[bad_teammate 13226]

Paper ballots.

This isn't complicated.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

30 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

jtfc they run on xp?  i'm trying to think of precisely how fucking impossible it would be for me to get away with using a retired version of Windows in any capacity at all in a production environment

They bought hardware and software at a certain point in time and they don't have the funds to upgrade every 4 years.   They are probably funded every 20.

Edited October 27, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[gmr548 16617]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/trump-2018-elections-midterms-congress-943449
Some higher level repubs are lowering expectations of keeping the house. 
At the same time, you have to wonder if the bombs sent to democrats and the shooting today in Pittsburgh count as October surprises? It sucks that these things happened, but maybe it will make people realize that trump has divided us more than any other president in modern history. 

It won't. This shit is tame composted l compared to what we've seen in his tenure. This won't move the needle.

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[Celery Man 21021]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

They bought hardware and software at a certain point in time and they don't have the funds to upgrade every 4 years.   They are probably funded every 20.

right - and apparently they don't have the organizational foresight to recognize this inevitable problem well in advance, or the operating standards to raise it as an issue before it becomes an issue in the wild

[GSU&UT 1798]

39 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Paper ballots.

This isn't complicated.

I mean, you'd think that.

[Mo Horn 8875]

43 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Paper ballots.

This isn't complicated.

Bush/Gore 2000 says hi. 

[Biff Tannen 45752]

Scantrons motherfucker

[Lurch 5932]

We had scantrons here. I wish they’d show you how it read it on a screen that you could accept or reject.