2018 - Elections and Trends

[bad_teammate 13221]

16 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Bush/Gore 2000 says hi. 

Those ballots weren't great, but there are perfectly simple paper ballot layouts. All the electronic system does is remove all sense of accountability.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

18 minutes ago, Lurch said:

We had scantrons here. I wish they’d show you how it read it on a screen that you could accept or reject.

Denton has scantrons style too. I'd like to see a confirmation note of what I did after I put it in the machine. It already feeds back a receipt. Why not include a record of who you voted for?

[Mapache 1117]

Will Ferrell going door to door for Stacey Abrams.

....hopefully doing his George W impersonation as well 

imgur

Edited October 27, 2018 by Mapache

[Mole 4333]

7 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

All the electronic system does is remove all sense of accountability.

This seems appropriate in this day and age.

[Biff Tannen 45697]

Denton has scantrons style too. I'd like to see a confirmation note of what I did after I put it in the machine. It already feeds back a receipt. Why not include a record of who you voted for?

The thought is you could literally buy votes then.

[Biff Tannen 45697]

Just saw an ad attacking Justin Nelson. Literally the argument was he is "just too liberal". Said he was for open borders (scary!). The end was simply vote for Ken Paxton. No redeeming qualities, but vote for him because scary libs. No mention of his being indicted on multiple felonies.

[Celery Man 20983]

is there a substantive party argument that gets trotted out about how Paxton is innocent and is a good and honest man?  it's fucking weird how it seems like... "don't acknowledge it and he will continue to win because people don't pay enough attention" is the whole thing.

[Voldemort86 2259]

It sucks that there’s a governor race this year in Texas.

 

if Abbott wasn’t on the ballot, those idiots would be getting a lot more attention ( indictment Paxton, potty Patrick)

[gmr548 16590]

is there a substantive party argument that gets trotted out about how Paxton is innocent and is a good and honest man?  it's fucking weird how it seems like... "don't acknowledge it and he will continue to win because people don't pay enough attention" is the whole thing.

Letter by the name is all the substance they need.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Biff Tannen 45697]

Will Ferrell going door to door for Stacey Abrams.
....hopefully doing his George W impersonation as well 

imgur>

That's kind of awesome.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

 

[Js1 85470]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Just saw an ad attacking Justin Nelson. Literally the argument was he is "just too liberal". Said he was for open borders (scary!). The end was simply vote for Ken Paxton. No redeeming qualities, but vote for him because scary libs. No mention of his being indicted on multiple felonies.

This is every GOP ad in Texas. 

(Blank) is “just too liberal for Texas” because (pick 2-3): socialism, Nancy Pelosi, open borders, tax increases, gun grabber, Obamacare. 

Vote GOP I approve this message. 

[Lurch 5931]

The thought is you could literally buy votes then.

Yeah, I recall it was this and to avoid voting under duress. Seems like we ignore those concerns in allowing ballots by mail, so perhaps we should just get over it altogether

[Lurch 5931]

This is every GOP ad in Texas. 
(Blank) is “just too liberal for Texas” because (pick 2-3): socialism, Nancy Pelosi, open borders, tax increases, gun grabber, Obamacare. 
Vote GOP I approve this message. 

Same in Florida. Pelosi is in almost every ad

[Brisketexan 105192]

Here's my fear... if the dems do take the house as predicted, Trump is going to go scorched earth with his tweets and rhetoric during rallies. It will be even worse is somehow the Senate flips also. There will be more bombers or incidents like today in Pittsburgh.  Brisket's prediction of violence will come to fruition.

“Will?” Check the scoreboard. Torched mosques. Nazis running down pedestrians. Men going to shoot up black churches (killing two random black People at Kroger when nobody was at the church), mail bombs, shooting up a fucking bris (because Jews are compassionate to Central Americans - a great two-fer!)....and we could keep going.

Trumpism and the alt-right are waging active warfare against “the other.” With real body counts and everything. This is what we’re facing, RIGHT NOW.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

You know it’s going to get a lot worse right? 

The sad part is this is just the beginning of the violence. 

No matter what happens in the midterms, there will be more blood. 

[berlinerbaer 678]

Things need to get nasty. That's the only way people in this country will snap out of their fucking trance.

[atomheartbevo 89771]

Wrong thread. 

Edited October 28, 2018 by atomheartbevo

[Stilicho 1397]

4 hours ago, Lurch said:

 

Same in Florida. Pelosi is in almost every ad

 

Same in Oklahoma. Edmondson (D) is a bad choice for governor for the following reasons:

1) He appears to be a replica of Nancy Pelosi (this comes from some bumfuck editorial article from bumfuck Guthrie, OK in bumfuck 2011 I believe)

2) He's a career politician, specifically like Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.

3) He wants to expand Obamacare (anti-Obamacare is still a thing in this state)

4) He backed Hillary over Trump, yes Trump (that's verbatim from the Stitt TV ad, though it should be noted, all of these things are spoken by a cow.  Literally.)

The entire message for statewide office in Oklahoma revolves around 1) Liberal 2) Pelosi 3.) Hillary

And people wonder why this state is a stand-in for Arkansas when it comes to cousin-fuckery and meth lab ingenuity.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Stilicho said:

Same in Oklahoma. Edmondson (D) is a bad choice for governor for the following reasons:

1) He appears to be a replica of Nancy Pelosi (this comes from some bumfuck editorial article from bumfuck Guthrie, OK in bumfuck 2011 I believe)

2) He's a career politician, specifically like Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.

3) He wants to expand Obamacare (anti-Obamacare is still a thing in this state)

4) He backed Hillary over Trump, yes Trump (that's verbatim from the Stitt TV ad, though it should be noted, all of these things are spoken by a cow.  Literally.)

The entire message for statewide office in Oklahoma revolves around 1) Liberal 2) Pelosi 3.) Hillary

And people wonder why this state is a stand-in for Arkansas when it comes to cousin-fuckery and meth lab ingenuity.

At least they legalized medical weed.

 

its still illegal in Texas because of Abbott and potty Patrick.

[GSU&UT 1798]

 

 

Unless EV slows way down this week, which is the opposite of what typically happens, GA may get close to its 2014 total vote cast. We're 200k+ past the 2014 EV total.

Edited October 28, 2018 by GSU&UT
its it's

[troph 24901]

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Unless EV slows way down this week, which is the opposite of what typically happens, GA may get close to it's 2014 total vote cast. We're 200k+ past the 2014 EV total.

Those incremental changes across women, whites and under 40 are going to kill the GOP no wonder they are acting like shitbags.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

 

 

Unless EV slows way down this week, which is the opposite of what typically happens, GA may get close to it's 2014 total vote cast. We're 200k+ past the 2014 EV total.

Some republican insiders are already expecting a run off. That could be good for abrams actually. I think she is hella good at getting out the vote and the blacks would be motivated to elect the first black governor in the south.

[BrickHorn 18262]

15 hours ago, Js1 said:

This is every GOP ad in Texas. 

(Blank) is “just too liberal for Texas”

https://politics.theonion.com/new-ted-cruz-attack-ad-declares-beto-o-rourke-too-good-1829842240

[Brisketexan 105192]

https://politics.theonion.com/new-ted-cruz-attack-ad-declares-beto-o-rourke-too-good-1829842240

When satire is real....damn.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

Some of you math wizards explain what the hell he is saying. 

[Message Board User 12395]

15 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Some of you math wizards explain what the hell he is saying. 

I'll try...

Let's suppose a particular model projects the Dems winning IND, AZ, NV, and FLA each 51-49.  So the Dems pick up 4 seats right?  Well, considering the Dems have only a slightly better than 50-50 chance to win each seat, the chance of winning ALL 4 drop to about 6% - (.5 *.5*.5*.5) - 6.25%.

Right now, the LA Rams are undefeated and will probably be favored in every game they play the rest of the way - but the odds of them actually winning every single game is probably very, very low.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

Ok. I reached out to one of my fellow students from back at Cistercian too on FB. He was doing calculus for fun while I was still trying to understand the quadratic equation. 

[David Dennison 18943]

Democrats are not winning the Senate.

I'd love to be wrong.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

The fact we are even debating it shows that we are light years away from the doom that was predicted. They were supposed to get hammered in the Senate races, not even remotely be competitive since the deck was stacked against them in this round. 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13516]

I don’t see how the news of the past 3 days (bomber and Pittsburgh killer) will do anything but hurt the gop in the midterms. And no, I’m not saying the gop is ultimately responsible but some of their side, most notably the president, have some questionable comments about liberal targets. A small percent people becoming more disgusted at trump or McCarthy or d’souza Or ______ can tip the scales in a few races. 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t see how the news of the past 3 days (bomber and Pittsburgh killer) will do anything but hurt the gop in the midterms. And no, I’m not saying the gop is ultimately responsible but some of their side, most notably the president, have some questionable comments about liberal targets. A small percent people becoming more disgusted at trump or McCarthy or d’souza Or ______ can tip the scales in a few races.  

There's a large Jewish population in Florida.  Just saying.

[Js1 85470]

 

[sushihorn 3233]

5 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

There is a large and increasing divergence between the actual early voting trends and polls being released late in this cycle.  I decided to check the crosstabs on a poll that looked off as a check on the stuff CBS put out today.  Their AZ poll is crap.  Their sample was 5% Black (queston 50).  1% of the registered voters in AZ are black.  Less egregious but with greater impact, the CBS sample is 19% Hispanic and 70% white.  RVs are 16% Hispanic, with a notable propensity for low turnout.  Whites are 76% of the RV with a high turnout propensity.  There's no way the results of the poll will be valid when the sample is so far off the demographics of RVs.

But what's showing up at the polls is actually much worse than even RV demos would suggest.  Per D-affiliated TargetSmart current EVs are 82% White, 11.6% Hispanic and 0.5% Black.  EV turnout is 825k compared to 2.55 mil total who voted in 2016 and 1.43 mil in 2014.  Don't be surprised when the election results are wildly different from what these polls are telling you.

[Voldemort86 2259]

58 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Virginia should be a blood bath for the GOP.

The guy at the top of the GOP ticket is a white supremacist who loved the Charlottesville riots.

everyone thinks Comstock is a goner already. Dave brat is a smarmy geek who mentions “Nancy pelosi” in every other sentence he utters. Scott Taylor had people on his staff work to get a democrat on the ballot as an Indy to split the vote, they even added dead people on to the petitions. The guy in district 5 Riggleman actually likes big foot porn.

i can’t imagine why republicans in Virginia would be motivated to vote this year with that shit show on the ballot.

[Gil Bang 25986]

35 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

There's a large Jewish population in Florida.  Just saying.

There's a larger crazy redneck population. 

[David Dennison 18943]

14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Virginia should be a blood bath for the GOP.

The guy at the top of the GOP ticket is a white supremacist who loved the Charlottesville riots.

everyone thinks Comstock is a goner already. Dave brat is a smarmy geek who mentions “Nancy pelosi” in every other sentence he utters. Scott Taylor had people on his staff work to get a democrat on the ballot as an Indy to split the vote, they even added dead people on to the petitions. The guy in district 5 Riggleman actually likes big foot porn.

i can’t imagine why republicans in Virginia would be motivated to vote this year with that shit show on the ballot.

Virginia is about to turn blue for good.

[Mo Horn 8853]

13 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Virginia is about to turn blue for good.

Yea i don't know. Area around DC definitely but a big naval base at Norfolk and a lot of rural folks that will never be light red much less blue will always keep it fluid, I'm guessing.  

[bolverk 29705]

33 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

There is a large and increasing divergence between the actual early voting trends and polls being released late in this cycle.  I decided to check the crosstabs on a poll that looked off as a check on the stuff CBS put out today.  Their AZ poll is crap.  Their sample was 5% Black (queston 50).  1% of the registered voters in AZ are black.  Less egregious but with greater impact, the CBS sample is 19% Hispanic and 70% white.  RVs are 16% Hispanic, with a notable propensity for low turnout.  Whites are 76% of the RV with a high turnout propensity.  There's no way the results of the poll will be valid when the sample is so far off the demographics of RVs.

But what's showing up at the polls is actually much worse than even RV demos would suggest.  Per D-affiliated TargetSmart current EVs are 82% White, 11.6% Hispanic and 0.5% Black.  EV turnout is 825k compared to 2.55 mil total who voted in 2016 and 1.43 mil in 2014.  Don't be surprised when the election results are wildly different from what these polls are telling you.

2

Not sure I buy those estimates or where they got them. 2010 Census shows that 4.1% of Arizona's population was Black, and that share had increased by a full percentage point over the 2000 Census. Sure, not all Blacks in Arizona are registered, but I find it hard to believe that a full 75% aren't (as would be implied by those share differences).

[bolverk 29705]

3 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Yea i don't know. Area around DC definitely but a big naval base at Norfolk and a lot of rural folks that will never be light red much less blue will always keep it fluid, I'm guessing. 

2

Norfolk went 68% toward Hillary (26% Trump) and VA Beach was 45% Hillary (48% Trump). Clearly, that's not all of the region but it gives you a better snapshot of area voting trends.

[Js1 85470]

 

[gmr548 16590]

34 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Yea i don't know. Area around DC definitely but a big naval base at Norfolk and a lot of rural folks that will never be light red much less blue will always keep it fluid, I'm guessing.  

Statewide it will be blue for the foreseeable future except in the event of an actual red wave, not the kind Trump keeps predicting. The Ds have been expanding their lead there over the last few cycles and the areas that are growing are primarialy in Northern Virginia, which is solidly D. The big counties are mostly D with a few slight R leans and it isn't like Texas where the smaller jurisdictions vote 75% R across the board. There just aren't enough R votes to win a statewide election at this point. With Ds firmly in control of the governorship there and the statehouse nearly 50-50 it will become less gerrymandered )or maybe equally gerrymandered, but for Ds).

The chart below illustrates it pretty well. But it's worth noting that Fairfax County has about 750k more people than the second biggest city or county. Northern VA voters are also generally really well educated and higher income, meaning they generally turnout at higher rates, especially in off years, and are starting to lean more D as a demographic whole (see GOP house races in Virginia as evidence). 

[Mo Horn 8853]

36 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Norfolk went 68% toward Hillary (26% Trump) and VA Beach was 45% Hillary (48% Trump). Clearly, that's not all of the region but it gives you a better snapshot of area voting trends.

True. But I think the military didn't want Trump but could be me more supportive of another Republican. Just not convinced Virginia is the next solid blue state. 

[Mo Horn 8853]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Statewide it will be blue for the foreseeable future except in the event of an actual red wave, not the kind Trump keeps predicting. The Ds have been expanding their lead there over the last few cycles and the areas that are growing are primarialy in Northern Virginia, which is solidly D. The big counties are mostly D with a few slight R leans and it isn't like Texas where the smaller jurisdictions vote 75% R across the board. There just aren't enough R votes to win a statewide election at this point. With Ds firmly in control of the governorship there and the statehouse nearly 50-50 it will become less gerrymandered )or maybe equally gerrymandered, but for Ds).

The chart below illustrates it pretty well. But it's worth noting that Fairfax County has about 750k more people than the second biggest city or county. Northern VA voters are also generally really well educated and higher income, meaning they generally turnout at higher rates, especially in off years, and are starting to lean more D as a demographic whole (see GOP house races in Virginia as evidence). 

Hope this is correct