2018 - Elections and Trends

[FondrenRoad 4378]

46 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

True. But I think the military didn't want Trump but could be me more supportive of another Republican. Just not convinced Virginia is the next solid blue state. 

I imagine most of the people stationed in Norfolk have their legal residence in an entirely different state. It doesnt work quite the same way as moving for a private sector job.  Norfolk itself is also nearly half African American. Its a fairly liberal city. 

Edited October 28, 2018 by FondrenRoad

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

Bahahahaha 

the paul ryan led PAC had a $100 million war chest coming into this election cycle. If we don’t win, I hope we drain that as much as the democrats have been drained in the past. I think the Dems started at 5 million this cycle by comparison.

Edited October 28, 2018 by Voldemort86

[cactusflinthead 27609]

On YouGov. 

Didn't we used to discount self-selected polling? I was not lying when I said I wandered down their rabbit hole. It was a happy moment to go off on Florida Georgia Line and Luke Bryan. It was also telling that when they asked me about sports the NFL, NBA, and NHL were not on their question lists. The WNBA was. I know exactly zero persons that give a shit about them. Perhaps some family exists that care about their players, but no sports humans I know give a big rat's ass about the WNBA. From what I can tell it is a shitty pollster, but yet they drive the narrative too, so I participated. I said so when they asked me. Not that they were shitty pollsters, but that I felt the need to get my vote in as well. 

they are reminiscent of aggy hitting an online poll and stacking it in their favor

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[cactusflinthead 27609]

All they have left is lies and fear. 

I'm still of a mind that the polling is not getting to the voters. I don't know one person under 40 that will answer the damn phone. That's in a nutshell why Beto has been pestering the shit out of people with texts. Landlines? Yeah, I have one because it costs more to get TV and internet solely than if I get it bundled with the phone. I can't even tell you what my number is. Seriously, I don't know. It pops up on the TV every once in a while and I either ignore it or punch out. They are missing a vast segment of society that has entirely opted out of landlines. LV? RV? yeah, well is that taking into account the new ones? I got a strong feeling that things are in flux and Nate Cohn is going to be surprised. He'll be able to spin it like he did in 2016 because there was only a 20% chance of Trump winning but here we are. Oh I forgot that post about math. Back shortly with that reply.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Edited October 29, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Gil Bang 26069]

Local TV station is currently hosting a debate for the 49th.  Harkey vs. Levin.  This is Nixon/Kennedy redux appearance wise.  Levin looks great, Harkey does not.  

Harkey's a fuckng crook living in a stolen house, but enough about that.

She's trying to paint Levin as a carpetbagger.  He went to High School in South OC.  

She says he's taking money from "code blue".  Of course she means "Act Blue", which is the website that accepts small donations for Dem candidates.  She's saying he's a Pelosi bitchboy.

He has, so far, looked like a choirboy.  I hope he goes fucking apeshit on her corrupt ass.  

[Gil Bang 26069]

[Celery Man 21021]

5 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

[Gil Bang 26069]

already over.  Harkey looked like an idiot.  

On the other hand, she didn't look like a fucking felon, which she actually is, so she's got that going for her. 

Edited October 29, 2018 by Gil Bang

[cactusflinthead 27609]

 

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

John Oliver’s main story tonight was about state attorneys general.

He dedicated a lot of time roasting Ken Paxton.

[cactusflinthead 27609]

 

 

[Satchel 6949]

7 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

John Oliver’s main story tonight was about state attorneys general.

He dedicated a lot of time roasting Ken Paxton.

That he did. I thought Paxton was just your garden variety white collar criminal, but he's that and more. He's got some street thug in him:

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

John Oliver’s main story tonight was about state attorneys general.

He dedicated a lot of time roasting Ken Paxton.

I can’t believe people are going to vote for that crook.

[Gil Bang 26069]

people will vote for several crooks this cycle.  Most of them Republicans, of course.

[G650 14284]

16 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

I can't begin to tell you how much I hate the fact I have to vote for Tim fucking Kaine.

[G650 14284]

15 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Virginia should be a blood bath for the GOP.

The guy at the top of the GOP ticket is a white supremacist who loved the Charlottesville riots.

everyone thinks Comstock is a goner already. Dave brat is a smarmy geek who mentions “Nancy pelosi” in every other sentence he utters. Scott Taylor had people on his staff work to get a democrat on the ballot as an Indy to split the vote, they even added dead people on to the petitions. The guy in district 5 Riggleman actually likes big foot porn.

i can’t imagine why republicans in Virginia would be motivated to vote this year with that shit show on the ballot.

Scott Taylor is going to win unfortunately. I know the guy personally and think he is a total shit bag, but getting Middle Class Utopia™ to vote for a Democrat ain't happening.

 

There's roughly 10 Scott Taylor signs in my three immediate neighbors yards alone.

[Bozo_Casanova 26613]

I can’t believe people are going to vote for that crook.

I’ve told this story before, but right after he won I was at a party with some big money Dallas Republicans who had supported Dan Branch during the primaries and they were all out of sorts about the fact that our new state AG was a crook.
So I said something like - are you guys saying you supported the democrat? And there’s this long pause and one of the Republicans says “No, but I only gave Paxton $100.”

[G650 14284]

14 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

True. But I think the military didn't want Trump but could be me more supportive of another Republican. Just not convinced Virginia is the next solid blue state. 

 

Virginia is not going to be a solid blue state. It will lean Dem though, on the bluer shade of purple for statewide races in the foreseeable future.

Virginia is a very unique state, and will always toe a very centrist line. We have switched parties in gubernatorial elections religiously over the years, and this is long before the metro areas became outsized influencers. We had the first elected African American governor, Doug Wilder, back then as well. It's just very different than your usual state analysis.

 

Also, @gmr548 and others, don't fall into the trap of analyzing Fairfax County as a whole. It's a county, not a city, and has a bunch of different constituent parts. It's not monolithic. Virginia Beach is a much more homogeneous bloc.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5800]

6 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

people will vote for several crooks this cycle.  Most of them Republicans, of course.

Duncan Hunter being the most inexcusable. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

7 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

Cruz has been flat out making up stories on his twitter feed and I assume in rallies.  Feeding raw meat to his base.  It works for his mentor, trump, so why not.

if he says Silicon Valley is deleting or hiding posts, it will help Aunt Peggy understand why her many caravan invasion posts on Facebook aren’t getting many likes.

once again fall back to the message of fear and anger.

Edited October 29, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[horncyclist 1391]

https://www.propublica.org/article/reports-of-voter-intimidation-at-polling-places-in-texas

Remind me again which side is the mob?

[Pancho 45180]

 

[Js1 85651]

Right in Chrispy's wheelhouse.  Probably got this in the mail and ran all over The Woodlands screaming about trannies raping kids in the bathroom.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Anyone have any good article explaining how pollsters are handling the big changes in response rates they are getting?  No one has land lines.  No one answers the phone any more.  Rs (it seems) are less likely to respond to a poll that does break through the shield.  A lot of self-selection has to happen in the samples now and I can't imagine enough time has passed to be able to test out new theories of how to adjust properly.

[Js1 85651]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Anyone have any good article explaining how pollsters are handling the big changes in response rates they are getting?  No one has land lines.  No one answers the phone any more.  Rs (it seems) are less likely to respond to a poll that does break through the shield.  A lot of self-selection has to happen in the samples now and I can't imagine enough time has passed to be able to test out new theories of how to adjust properly.

I'm sure the Nates will do some sort of analysis on this if they turn out to be super wrong after next week.

[Dnaguy 12181]

 

So what happend after 1994 that has caused turnout to be so low?

 

 

 

 

[lemonlime 5503]

6 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Anyone have any good article explaining how pollsters are handling the big changes in response rates they are getting?  No one has land lines.  No one answers the phone any more.  Rs (it seems) are less likely to respond to a poll that does break through the shield.  A lot of self-selection has to happen in the samples now and I can't imagine enough time has passed to be able to test out new theories of how to adjust properly.

I did receive a call from Gallup a few months ago on  my cell.

I'm also wondering how they're adjusting for party realignment, i.e. yes most Republicans support Trump and Trumpism, but a lot have left the party (and some joined).  Are these changes being accounted for in the polling?

[BrickHorn 18298]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Right in Chrispy's wheelhouse.  Probably got this in the mail and ran all over The Woodlands screaming about trannies raping kids in the bathroom.

Dee Snider hasn’t aged well.

[bernorange 8367]

37 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Dee Snider hasn’t aged well.

I guess he stayed too hungry?

[Longhorn94 2458]

14 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

All they have left is lies and fear. 

I'm still of a mind that the polling is not getting to the voters. I don't know one person under 40 that will answer the damn phone. That's in a nutshell why Beto has been pestering the shit out of people with texts. Landlines? Yeah, I have one because it costs more to get TV and internet solely than if I get it bundled with the phone. I can't even tell you what my number is. Seriously, I don't know. It pops up on the TV every once in a while and I either ignore it or punch out. They are missing a vast segment of society that has entirely opted out of landlines. LV? RV? yeah, well is that taking into account the new ones? I got a strong feeling that things are in flux and Nate Cohn is going to be surprised. He'll be able to spin it like he did in 2016 because there was only a 20% chance of Trump winning but here we are. Oh I forgot that post about math. Back shortly with that reply.

 

we haven't had a landline for 15 years.

[Message Board User 12396]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Right in Chrispy's wheelhouse.  Probably got this in the mail and ran all over The Woodlands screaming about trannies raping kids in the bathroom.

I lol’d at “help me”.

[JimmyJames 12271]

7 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I lol’d at “help me”.

Yeah that is a nice touch. Reminds me of the cover of the National enquirer. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

So what happend after 1994 that has caused turnout to be so low?

Great question and I have no idea.  This definitely needs serious investigation.  I’d like to see how that phenomenon compares to other states and nationwide turnout.

Not saying these are connected but 94 was a banner year for the GOP taking control of Congress, it’s known as the Republican Revolution.

 We were also coming off the end of the Cold War and the introduction of the internet into the home. 

I’m not sure if the low turnout was by design or people just becoming less politically engaged.  I suspect a combination of both.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Supposedly there’s conflicting information out of Florida. 

Gillum and Nelson have been ahead in pretty much all the polls lately, but repubs are giddy about the early vote numbers so far. The only viable explanation is that the Dems must be winning independents by a big margin or the polls are way off for some reason.

Edited October 29, 2018 by Voldemort86

[GSU&UT 1798]

23 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Supposedly there’s conflicting information out of Florida. 

Gillum and Nelson have been ahead in pretty much all the polls lately, but repubs are giddy about the early vote numbers so far. The only viable explanation is that the Dems must be winning independents by a big margin or the polls are way off for some reason.

Registered republicans may honestly be voting for Gillum at a higher clip than they think if the polling has been consistent.

[Bozo_Casanova 26613]

 

So what happend after 1994 that has caused turnout to be so low?

 

 

 

 

There’s a lot of detail underneath this, but the short version is that in 1994 the Texas Democratic Party reached critical density and imploded and has been detectable since only by the faint stream of morons it emits.

Not being sarcastic. TDP, the institution, ceased to function as a statewide political party in 1994.

[Mack Tripper 696]

He's right you know.jpg

[Dnaguy 12181]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

There’s a lot of detail underneath this, but the short version is that in 1994 the Texas Democratic Party reached critical density and imploded and has been detectable since only by the faint stream of morons it emits.

Not being sarcastic. TDP, the institution, ceased to function as a statewide political party in 1994.

But how does that account for ~ 20 pt drop in voter turnout?

I half speculated that it had something to do w/ Texas' very quick transition from the Democratic party to Repulican party dominance.... but that can't explain it all, right

Your arguement is that without a true organized Democratic party that there was not enough of a ground game to turnout voters in the late 90's? 
 

[Js1 85651]

Democrats building their firewall in Nevada. If the GOP keeps falling behind, Heller is burnt toast. 

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

[Bozo_Casanova 26613]

But how does that account for ~ 20 pt drop in voter turnout?
I half speculated that it had something to do w/ Texas' very quick transition from the Democratic party to Repulican party dominance.... but that can't explain it all, right
Your arguement is that without a true organized Democratic party that there was not enough of a ground game to turnout voters in the late 90's? 
 

Because the entity responsible for getting Democrats to the booth during gubernatorial years collapsed. Core Democrats kept voting, establishment voters switched. Casual Democrats stayed home.

[sushihorn 3233]

22 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

But how does that account for ~ 20 pt drop in voter turnout?

I half speculated that it had something to do w/ Texas' very quick transition from the Democratic party to Repulican party dominance.... but that can't explain it all, right

Your arguement is that without a true organized Democratic party that there was not enough of a ground game to turnout voters in the late 90's? 
 

I think that's a factor.  Competitive governor's race in 1994 and a blowout in 1998 (more than 2:1 GWB) saw the total number of votes cast fall by 15%. 

But the bigger factor was the radical increase in voter registration.  33.5% increase in registered voters from 1994 to 1998.  The registered voter pool is the denominator on which turnout is calculated.  By expanding the pool so much, it was guaranteed to include a lot more people with a lower propensity to vote.  By 2002, the total votes cast in the governor's race was back above 1994 but the denominator was 50% bigger.  And I have no idea why voter registration went up so much during that period since Texas' population was expanding a little less than 2% annually.

[Dnaguy 12181]

14 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I think that's a factor.  Competitive governor's race in 1994 and a blowout in 1998 (more than 2:1 GWB) saw the total number of votes cast fall by 15%. 

But the bigger factor was the radical increase in voter registration.  33.5% increase in registered voters from 1994 to 1998.  The registered voter pool is the denominator on which turnout is calculated.  By expanding the pool so much, it was guaranteed to include a lot more people with a lower propensity to vote.  By 2002, the total votes cast in the governor's race was back above 1994 but the denominator was 50% bigger.  And I have no idea why voter registration went up so much during that period since Texas' population was expanding a little less than 2% annually.

Because of all the illegals who moved in?

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

30 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Because of all the illegals who moved in?

 

5 million illegals voted in 2016.

 

🤪🤪

[atomheartbevo 89878]

4 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Anyone have any good article explaining how pollsters are handling the big changes in response rates they are getting?  No one has land lines.  No one answers the phone any more.  Rs (it seems) are less likely to respond to a poll that does break through the shield.  A lot of self-selection has to happen in the samples now and I can't imagine enough time has passed to be able to test out new theories of how to adjust properly.

I don’t know.  They should provide a text option and many would respond.  Hell, I’m sexting with half-a-dozen Beto volunteers every day it seems. 

[Bateshorn 9942]

The National Voter Registration Act (aka Moter Voter) kicked in on January 1, 1995. States are required to offer voter registration with a license request or renewal.

[sushihorn 3233]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The National Voter Registration Act (aka Moter Voter) kicked in on January 1, 1995. States are required to offer voter registration with a license request or renewal.

Thanks.  That makes a lot of sense.  It got a lot more people registered but hardly changed actual voting behavior at all.  Turnout as measured by eligible voters (2/3 of the population) didn't change much.

[Bateshorn 9942]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

Thanks.  That makes a lot of sense.  It got a lot more people registered but hardly changed actual voting behavior at all.  Turnout as measured by eligible voters (2/3 of the population) didn't change much.

Right.  It's why I'm dubious of voter registration drives.  I mean, if you've gotten this far in life without a driver's license, you're almost certainly not going to spare a random Tuesday in November to go to a school or library and stand in line for half an hour to vote.

[Celery Man 21021]

Right.  It's why I'm dubious of voter registration drives.  I mean, if you've gotten this far in life without a driver's license, you're almost certainly not going to spare a random Tuesday in November to go to a school or library and stand in line for half an hour to vote.

Majority of people who came up when I was doing voter registration were changing address or voting for the first time in Travis county. Number one question was does my drivers license address need to match my voter registration (no).