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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

I’m no expert, but it seems like repubs only have 2 real days left to change the trajectory. Who really pays attention to the news over the weekend?  Whose really going to change their mind on Monday the day before? 

Repubs are running out of time. Point blank.

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Several friends who are/were active duty military are sharing a similar bucket of GOP trash called "The Truth About Tim Walz" attempting to Swift Boat him. Fuck that shit. 

 

It would help their case if everyone at the upper reaches of the Minnesota GOP ticket weren't total scumbags. 

How’s Keith Ellison doing?  I heard he is dragging down the DFL ticket 

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Drink less. You’re brain damaged. 

Tell me where I’m wrong?

 

TN/AZ/NV should hold

IN/MO/ND/MT and possibly NJ flip. 

W.V. Mancin is in trouble too  

MI is also possible and who knows maybe MN since Keith Ellison is free falling.  

I’m not even counting FL

 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NameWithHeld said:

Tell me where I’m wrong?

 

TN/AZ/NV should hold

IN/MO/ND/MT and possibly NJ flip. 

W.V. Mancin is in trouble too  

MI is also possible and who knows maybe MN since Keith Ellison is free falling.  

I’m not even counting FL

 

52 seems pretty easy.  ND is just about a done deal.  One of MO and IN probably goes as well but it's possible that either AZ or NV goes the other way. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

Posted
Posted
52 seems pretty easy.  ND is just about a done deal.  One of MO and IN probably goes as well but it's possible that either AZ or NV goes the other way. 

Sure—Heitkamp is done. Because incumbents have a history of losing when their party is enjoying a wave election. And anyway, she doesn’t have a history of outperforming her polls by 10% or anything.


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horncyclist

horncyclist 1391

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, NameWithHeld said:

Tell me where I’m wrong?

 

TN/AZ/NV should hold

IN/MO/ND/MT and possibly NJ flip. 

W.V. Mancin is in trouble too  

MI is also possible and who knows maybe MN since Keith Ellison is free falling.  

I’m not even counting FL

 

You serious? Manchin in trouble? He's up by like 12. You're not paying attention at all.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30277

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, NameWithHeld said:

Tell me where I’m wrong?

 

TN/AZ/NV should hold

 

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leads over Republican Martha McSally.  Nevada is too close to call.   You better hope that young people and Hispanics do not register in great numbers in those states like they did Texas and Georgia.   If bored Millennials ever actually register and vote, the olds are done.

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Satchel

Satchel 6939

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

The Blackburn poll actually represents a tightening overall.  Having said that, Marist is a top notch outfit.  Blackburn clearly has a lead.

This is somewhat of a head scratcher. In likeabilty, she's underwater and he leads her by 13 points. 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30277

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leads over Republican Martha McSally.  Nevada is too close to call.   You better hope that young people and Hispanics do not register in great numbers in those states like they did Texas and Georgia.   If bored Millennials ever actually register and vote, the olds are done.

Snap! Just read this:  " In some states, especially those with hot races, the increase in turnout is staggering. In Texas, 332,000 voters under the age of 30 have cast ballots already, up nearly five fold from the 2014 midterms. In Nevada, the 25,000 young voters who have cast a ballot is also five times higher than in the same period four years ago. "

I guess it could be a red wave of Young Republicans.   But I doubt it.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9928

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:


Sure—Heitkamp is done. Because incumbents have a history of losing when their party is enjoying a wave election. And anyway, she doesn’t have a history of outperforming her polls by 10% or anything.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s also not a race with only one reliable poll and a bunch of low grade locals. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted

When the head of the DNC, Tom Perez say "we always knew it was going to be close" is he part of a right-wing conspiracy?  Do you think the SF Chronicle is shilling for Trump?

Quote

With the midterm elections just days away, there’s little indication that California is seeing a “blue wave” of Democratic votes, at least in the early returns of vote-by-mail ballots — and in some key races that will help determine control of the House, Republican voter response has been strong.

Could it still happen?  Yes.  Is there any evidence that it is happening?  Not really.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Satchel said:

This is somewhat of a head scratcher. In likeabilty, she's underwater and he leads her by 13 points. 

She is just grossly awful in all ways. I'm sure Bredsen has tried to link her to the opioid crisis in attack ads, but if I were running his campaign I'd run nothing but ads on that and healthcare. 

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Texas73

Texas73 421

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

She is just grossly awful in all ways. I'm sure Bredsen has tried to link her to the opioid crisis in attack ads, but if I were running his campaign I'd run nothing but ads on that and healthcare. 

Cruz is grossly awful too but looks like he will win. Millions of Texans voting for him just because of the R.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13516

Posted
Posted

As polls are going back around to some of the house races, there is nothing to show that the gop is doing well.  Even some republicans from trump-won districts are losing.  Lance from NJ is from a upper income, conservative district and usually wins easily.

 the “tax cuts” can have the opposite  for people living in high property tax states like NJ.

could be a bloodbath for the gop on Tuesday.  They should retain the senate with this years map.  

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13516

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

I’ve always thought that when polls have someone at 50+ with likely voters a few days out, it’s a tough nut to crack for the underdog.  That’s one reason why I think Beto is in a tough spot.  It’s one thing if he was polling down 47-42 with likely voters. Instead Cruz is consistently hitting 51 or 52.  Converting undecideds at that point only makes the race close but not winning.   Hope I’m wrong.  Gave Beto another $100 last night to help with his gotv effort.

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Js1

Js1 85461

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’ve always thought that when polls have someone at 50+ with likely voters a few days out, it’s a tough nut to crack for the underdog.  That’s one reason why I think Beto is in a tough spot.  It’s one thing if he was polling down 47-42 with likely voters. Instead Cruz is consistently hitting 51 or 52.  Converting undecideds at that point only makes the race close but not winning.   Hope I’m wrong.  Gave Beto another $100 last night to help with his gotv effort.

This is the truth.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20982

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, NameWithHeld said:

The same could be said for people voting for the “D”

it could be said, because the types of people saying it have absolutely no reservations about total dishonesty.  like every single republican running on protecting preexisting conditions.

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

She is just grossly awful in all ways. I'm sure Bredsen has tried to link her to the opioid crisis in attack ads, but if I were running his campaign I'd run nothing but ads on that and healthcare. 

But isn’t Bredesen a liar?  Project Veritas showed the video of high level campaign staffers saying that Bredesen said he would support Kavanaugh but really doesn’t, he was trying to get moderate GOPers to vote for him.  The latest poll shows Blackburn up by around 9 points so that lie probably didn’t work. 

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leads over Republican Martha McSally.  Nevada is too close to call.   You better hope that young people and Hispanics do not register in great numbers in those states like they did Texas and Georgia.   If bored Millennials ever actually register and vote, the olds are done.

Arizona just baffles me.  I can’t believe after all of her derogatory quotes about Arizonans that Sinema has be linked to including having no problem with people going overseas to fight with the Taliban.  McSally was a 28 yr Air Force Vet who was the first female pilot in combat and the first to command a Squadron in combat. 

Say what you want about the other races this one shouldn’t even be close   I have faith the voters of AZ will not make it close with McSally winning handlely. 

Then again I thought Texas would beat OSU without any problem  

 

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33054

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, sushihorn said:

When the head of the DNC, Tom Perez say "we always knew it was going to be close" is he part of a right-wing conspiracy?  Do you think the SF Chronicle is shilling for Trump?

Could it still happen?  Yes.  Is there any evidence that it is happening?  Not really.

There's plenty of evidence it's happening. There's also plenty of evidence it's not happening. We've seen contradictory data and reports for the last week-and-a-half out of multiple outlets.

It's just that you're employing some of the heaviest confirmation bias I've ever seen out of you in all your analyses.

Edited by Huckleberry
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UTDD

UTDD 362

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, NameWithHeld said:

Arizona just baffles me.  I can’t believe after all of her derogatory quotes about Arizonans that Sinema has be linked to including having no problem with people going overseas to fight with the Taliban.  McSally was a 28 yr Air Force Vet who was the first female pilot in combat and the first to command a Squadron in combat. 

Say what you want about the other races this one shouldn’t even be close   I have faith the voters of AZ will not make it close with McSally winning handlely. 

Then again I thought Texas would beat OSU without any problem  

 

 

That one is going down to the wire I think.  Much like Nevada most likely.  The fear about pre-existing conditions on health care is very real in Arizona and she is getting pounded in ads for her prior votes on Obamacare.  Republicans in general are shifting strategy to say they support saving pre-existing conditions just as much as Democrats now.

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Js1

Js1 85461

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, UTDD said:

That one is going down to the wire I think.  Much like Nevada most likely.  The fear about pre-existing conditions on health care is very real in Arizona and she is getting pounded in ads for her prior votes on Obamacare.  Republicans in general are shifting strategy to say they support saving pre-existing conditions just as much as Democrats now.

She wouldn't be crying about "getting her ass kicked on her healthcare vote" if it didn't matter A LOT.

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UTDD

UTDD 362

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She wouldn't be crying about "getting her ass kicked on her healthcare vote" if it didn't matter A LOT.

Republicans wouldn't be shifting on pre-existing conditions like they are if they didn't already know it matters a lot to people.  You even saw Trump tweet about Republicans protecting pre-existing conditions.  It's a real issue.

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I'll be glad to ignore any heavily edited video that racist organization puts out.

Except that video wasn’t.  I guess the Think Progress talking  points didn’t mention that. 

 

BTW how is Project Veritas racist?   Please cite examples. 

Edited by NameWithHeld
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33054

Posted
Posted

That's probably overstating it quite a bit but is the exact reason that nobody knows anything about how these elections are going. I find it hard to believe that independents will break 67/33 for Democrats (that's an estimate based on eyeballing that chart to show 58/28 with 14 undecided and then assigning the undecided votes proportionally) but it wouldn't take that big of a discrepancy to overcome what looks like early voting Republican leads.

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Js1

Js1 85461

Posted
Posted

BuT rEpUbLiCaNs ArE lEaDiNg In EaRlY vOtiNg

If that's the margin of unaffiliated voters, Katy bar the door.  Don't be so surprised Huck, I doubt it's that high but independents went 55-39 for the GOP in 2010 and 54-42 in 2014.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89770

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’ve always thought that when polls have someone at 50+ with likely voters a few days out, it’s a tough nut to crack for the underdog.  That’s one reason why I think Beto is in a tough spot.  It’s one thing if he was polling down 47-42 with likely voters. Instead Cruz is consistently hitting 51 or 52.  Converting undecideds at that point only makes the race close but not winning.   Hope I’m wrong.  Gave Beto another $100 last night to help with his gotv effort.

I still question the polls if a lot of people don’t answer their phones and don’t have land lines.  You get people in their 60s like my mom who are naturally suspicious, they aren’t going to answer strange phone calls because they’ll get charged $900 by some Jamaican or Nigerian according to Facebook.   And good luck with the under 50 crowd.  

People in general are getting too many spam calls as well, so answering the phone to strange numbers is becoming uncommon. 

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troph

troph 24900

Posted
Posted
I’ve always thought that when polls have someone at 50+ with likely voters a few days out, it’s a tough nut to crack for the underdog.  That’s one reason why I think Beto is in a tough spot.  It’s one thing if he was polling down 47-42 with likely voters. Instead Cruz is consistently hitting 51 or 52.  Converting undecideds at that point only makes the race close but not winning.   Hope I’m wrong.  Gave Beto another $100 last night to help with his gotv effort.

That’s true except our discussion about new voters and difficulty accessing them for polling. EV in Texas shows 10% have never voted before. The uptick in younger voters and the apparent smaller surge in olders. These polls are unreliable. Doesn’t mean Beto wins it just means we really have an unknown outcome in a lot of races.
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