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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, G650 said:

To where exactly.

Living easy, living free
Season ticket on a one-way ride
Asking nothing, leave me be
Taking everything in my stride
Don't need reason, don't need rhyme
Ain't nothing I would rather do
Going down, party time
My friends are gonna be there too. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32646

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

GOP pollster with a pretty bland take, based on daily trends among the NYT Upshot polling over the past 6 weeks.

IOW, nothing has really changed in the House race since the start of September.

What do the two Dem and Rep percentage columns mean in this guy's data? Is this national? Does his data really say that the national voting intention changed from +11% for Republicans to +3.3% for Democrats in one day?

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5267

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

What do the two Dem and Rep percentage columns mean in this guy's data? Is this national? Does his data really say that the national voting intention changed from +11% for Republicans to +3.3% for Democrats in one day?

Based on his whole twitter thread, it looks like those are results from an individual Upshot poll each day with results compared to what a statistical model would predict based on generic ballot. It's mostly just a measure of trendlines, i.e. whether results were looking better for D's or R's vs. the model. After the full 6 weeks, the overall trendline is neutral, or exactly what you'd expect based on the generic ballot polling.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13388

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

IF Beto wins (huge if), it will be because he went to places like Big Springs and Carthage and Mentone and Victoria multiple times. Those are small towns that Senators and Sentate candidates NEVER go to. I've spent a lot of time in small Texas towns. If you show your face, talk to the locals and are polite and decent, it goes a long way. A portion of those repulican voters he met in diners and coffee shops will vote for him because they met him and he is likely the only congressmen they've ever met. And the little old ladies that met him and liked him as a person, will tell their friends in the beauty parlor and bridge clubs. He's not going to win Reeves County, but he will do better than Clinton did because he went to those towns and met those people. Just not sure if it will be enough. 

 

IMO This is where Beto would see the highest level of converting Cruz voters.  Alone he can't count on a small percent of small counties to win the election but shaking hands and posing for photos in towns of 200-2000 people can add up. 

 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted

Somehow someone has to break through and evangelize for him in smaller counties.  You can't shake the hands of 3,000,000 registered voters in 224 counties.  Maybe he got to be in front of 30,000 of them?  1%?  But it is a sin to talk about democrats in a lot of those towns.

 

My csb:  before church in one of those counties, the locals meet up at the local greasy spoon.  Men sit with the men.  Women sit with the women.  Socialize and gossip.  I was in town to visit my folks and joined my dad with a couple of farmers.  This is a farming community to the core and my dad is a Ph.D. engineer.  The morning chatter was about how all the global warming stuff came from scientists that were being paid to produce that sort of information so they could get more money to do more studies.  Everyone nods in agreement, including my dad.  And he isn't a passive participant in these conversations either.  He actively says this stuff. 

I decided it is just their social signaling they like to give each other to say "hey, we are on the same team here.  this is how we all know that we are all cool with each other."  I very much doubt the farmers actually believed it, and I very much doubt my dad actually believed it.  It is just everyone reminding everyone what their team is, and if you are willing to say some retarded shit in favor of the team, then you have proved your loyalty to the team, so you still have social standing.

 

Someone has to start saying to their peers something positive about Beto or a position that Beto is known to support.  Otherwise they feel like considering voting for Beto is traitorous to their team.

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Felix

Felix 595

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure extrapolating votes in early voting is as simple as people want to make it this year.  I voted yesterday and I've probably voted R 95% of the time in the past including in the R primary.  While I didn't go straight party D this time voted for exactly 1 R (a county judge who had done good things infrastructure wise for the county) and 2 Ls in races where a D wasn't running.

I'm not sure I'll ever vote R again consistently.  I'm center right by most metrics, but the daily actions of the Republican party today has completely alienated me.

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bolverk

bolverk 29245

Posted
Posted

I know it's only one small conservative county out in West Texas, but the election office there has a FB page and they're reporting 3,782 votes as of yesterday. Given that the county had a little more than 17,000 registered voters in 2016 according to the TX SOS site, that would imply turnout of about 22% so far. I'm not entirely sure whether their EV numbers include absentee ballots or not.

Take it for whatever it's worth, but that 22% EV turnout is a much smaller share than what most of the big counties are reporting. They had a grand total of 14% EV turnout for the full period (25% TOTAL) in 2014.

Take that for whatever it's worth as I don't know if they are indicative of the rest of rural Texas but probably are - at least in how they vote. For example, 76% of them voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election (51% TOTAL turnout in the presidential election and 39% turnout during EV).

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23355

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

IF Beto wins (huge if), it will be because he went to places like Big Springs and Carthage and Mentone and Victoria multiple times. Those are small towns that Senators and Sentate candidates NEVER go to. I've spent a lot of time in small Texas towns. If you show your face, talk to the locals and are polite and decent, it goes a long way. A portion of those repulican voters he met in diners and coffee shops will vote for him because they met him and he is likely the only congressmen they've ever met. And the little old ladies that met him and liked him as a person, will tell their friends in the beauty parlor and bridge clubs. He's not going to win Reeves County, but he will do better than Clinton did because he went to those towns and met those people. Just not sure if it will be enough. 

 

All of that plus winning over a few of the community leaders.  If you can get those guys buzzing about you, the rest will follow suit.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

Assuming a 55% turnout and 1,000,000 margin in the top 15 counties to win, Beto needs to win the 15 big counties 57.4%-42.6%.  Doesn't seem impossible:

 

He has to beat Hillary by 2.9%.

Green party was 0.8% about 0.5% higher than 2012. Libertarians were 3.2% about 2.5% higher than 2012.  Beto can get 2.9% from there alone.

Also on rural vote Trump had almost 75% in the 228 smallest counties. Romney only had 70.8%. Beto's efforts and Cruz's unlikability should  keep Cruz below 70% in those counties.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25838

Posted
Posted

I don't know man.  I realize it's the south and all, but Kemp has shown himself to be a fucking disgrace by any measure.  The longer this goes on, the more folks that may realize what a scumbag he is. 

Also, many of those voters that he has suppressed may restore their rights before the runoff.  And, does anybody know if a person isn't registered for the general, can they register and vote in the runoff?

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Oprah campaigning might still be able to pull more than a few white suburban moms over the abrams. 

I really hope but it's so late in the game for this. What's hilarious is Pence is whining like a bitch about hollywood supporting Abrams (despite, you know, a god damned reality TV star being president) while Georgia has given enormous tax breaks to film studios to get their business. You've seen Will Ferrell, Michael B. Jordan, Mark Ruffalo, Common,  Rashida Jones, etc. all support her.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5781

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I really hope but it's so late in the game for this. What's hilarious is Pence is whining like a bitch about hollywood supporting Abrams (despite, you know, a god damned reality TV star being president) while Georgia has given enormous tax breaks to film studios to get their business. You've seen Will Ferrell, Michael B. Jordan, Mark Ruffalo, Common,  Rashida Jones, etc. all support her.

Don't fuck this up, GSU&UT

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25838

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I really hope but it's so late in the game for this. What's hilarious is Pence is whining like a bitch about hollywood supporting Abrams (despite, you know, a god damned reality TV star being president) while Georgia has given enormous tax breaks to film studios to get their business. You've seen Will Ferrell, Michael B. Jordan, Mark Ruffalo, Common,  Rashida Jones, etc. all support her.

Where Wallace at?

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Js1

Js1 84990

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I await the analysis from LL and others.

Well early voting is happening but she’s at 6%. If even half of that 6% that hasn’t voted goes to Sinema, could seal the deal. But my god, drop out 2 weeks ago. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Well early voting is happening but she’s at 6%. If even half of that 6% that hasn’t voted goes to Sinema, could seal the deal. But my god, drop out 2 weeks ago. 

This is a very interesting trend.  We've seen similar actions now in MT and AK as well.  I have to wonder what is being offered behind the scenes to induce this?

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted

Was listening to a podcast about relatively low Latino turnout nationwide and the reasons for it, and it cemented some thinking I've had in recent days about gerrymandering, and how it could cost Beto a win here.

1. All politics is local.

2. Imagine you live in the Valley. Or the Hood.

3. The only politicians who ever cross your mind are the president and your local rep.

4. That rep is either Sheila Jackson Lee or one of the Valley incumbents who are elected for life.

5. Why bother showing up to vote for them? Or anyone up-ballot? 

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