2018 - Elections and Trends

[HenryJames 66,171]

17 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

According to his wife, an ‘urgent Levin surge’ lasts about 30 seconds.

[NBMisha 224]

9 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Awkward?

 

So the university is endorsing this candidate?  What do their student and faculty constituencies say?  Not in the normal playbook.

[horncyclist 1,391]

15 minutes ago, NBMisha said:

So the university is endorsing this candidate?  What do their student and faculty constituencies say?  Not in the normal playbook.

They're running against each other. One sang the national anthem, one did the coin toss. No endorsement of either.

[horncyclist 1,391]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

An under discussed consequence of this election are gerrymandering for 2020-2030.   In many states, the governor can veto the newly drawn district maps.   Many of the governors being elected Tuesday will have that power even if the state legislature is controlled by the other party. 

The close governor elections for these states include Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas. 

Im fairly optimistic we can make a lot of progress in ending gerrymandering in this next redistricting cycle. Obviously in states with split control this should happen  but even were Dems have the opportunity to gerrymandering, I think they'll be pushed to draw fair districts. There's a lot of overlap between the end gerrymandering crowd and Dems pushing other structural reforms like campaign finance reform. See Beto.

[NBMisha 224]

7 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

They're running against each other. One sang the national anthem, one did the coin toss. No endorsement of either.

Doh!

[cactusflinthead 27,602]

Good summation of why a typical R voter is willing to split with their party and vote D until the Rs get straightened out. Link to Atlantic article at the end. 

It didn't go where I wanted. Try this one instead. 

 

Edited November 4, 2018 by cactusflinthead

[Message Board User 12,396]

 

[Message Board User 12,396]

 

[Chuckie Finster 22,735]

 

Poor Ryan is going to be really upset when someone tells him how often our president mocks someone’s physical appearance.

[Larry T. Spider 1,747]

13 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Poor Ryan is going to be really upset when someone tells him how often our president mocks someone’s physical appearance.

Yeah but he would never make fun of a decorated war veteran who was injured by the enemy.

[retread 2,951]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Good summation of why a typical R voter is willing to split with their party and vote D until the Rs get straightened out. Link to Atlantic article at the end. 

If you're basing your vote on the last 10-15 years of political history, it comes down to voting for the party of tyranny and war versus the party that saw us out of a nasty recession and gave the US a health care law that works. A party that cares nothing about foreign involvement in our elections versus a party that says they will take it seriously if they have the majority.

Edited November 4, 2018 by retread

[Mack Tripper 696]

When you’re trying to steal an election, best thing to do is accuse the other side.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/kemp-charges-georgia-democrats-attempted-voter-hack-abrams-fires-back-n931011

[Pancho 44,995]

TExt to Pancho yesterday: "Hi, we represent Don Huffines!  He's leading the fight to put corrput public officials behind bars.  Can he count on your support?"

Pancho's reply: "Oh, you texted the wrong nigga.  Here's a list of why you can politely go fuck yourself....  

 

Took me 10 minutes to reply.  They still haven't contacted me back. 

[longhornsftmfw 129]

TExt to Pancho yesterday: "Hi, we represent Don Huffines!  He's leading the fight to put corrput public officials behind bars.  Can he count on your support?"
Pancho's reply: "Oh, you texted the wrong nigga.  Here's a list of why you can politely go fuck yourself....  
 
Took me 10 minutes to reply.  They still haven't contacted me back. 

Nice, I was getting texts from the Beto campaign yesterday and was feeling pretty salty. One asked if I’d post my support on Facebook for my friends and family to see and I told her no, because Facebook is owned by greedy robots who exploit their users for ad revenue no matter the human cost, but I’ll tell them myself. She sent a few goofy emojis back and said “that works”. Told another one that I don’t vote for Canadian serial killers or people concerned with who’s using what bathroom. Her response: “you rock!!!”.

[Js1 85,574]

11 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

TExt to Pancho yesterday: "Hi, we represent Don Huffines!  He's leading the fight to put corrput public officials behind bars.  Can he count on your support?"

Pancho's reply: "Oh, you texted the wrong nigga.  Here's a list of why you can politely go fuck yourself....  

 

Took me 10 minutes to reply.  They still haven't contacted me back. 

“Great! When is Senator Huffines going to call for our AG Paxton to be behind bars?”

[Message Board User 12,396]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,523]

Anyone want to take a bet that after the governor race is over, Kemp quietly announces there wasn’t any democrat hacking of the voter database?   Well he won’t personally make the announcement, there will be a short press release late on a Friday afternoon.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,523]

Why hasn’t Paxton’s criminal case gone to trial yet?   He was indicted over 3 years ago.   Doesn’t he want to clear his good name with a jury of his peers declaring him not guilty?

Edited November 4, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[Celery Man 20,996]

I got one from Texas GOP asking if I'd volunteer to get out the vote for Abbott and Cruz (they left off Paxton, I guess they don't want people to remember he is on the ballot).  Responded "lol no".

[NBMisha 224]

That SNL bit is greatness.  

[berlinerbaer 678]

3 hours ago, horncyclist said:

Im fairly optimistic we can make a lot of progress in ending gerrymandering in this next redistricting cycle. Obviously in states with split control this should happen  but even were Dems have the opportunity to gerrymandering, I think they'll be pushed to draw fair districts. There's a lot of overlap between the end gerrymandering crowd and Dems pushing other structural reforms like campaign finance reform. See Beto.

There are ballot measures meant to address redistricting in four states.

MI and CO - independent commission for congressional and state leg (all likely to pass)

UT - semi-independent commission (likely to pass)

MO - independent demographer draws state leg maps, requires 70% of leg to overrule, also imposes campaign contribution limits

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-about-the-candidates-what-else-is-on-the-ballot-this-week/

[Biff Tannen 45,741]

9 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

There are ballot measures meant to address redistricting in four states.

MI and CO - independent commission for congressional and state leg (all likely to pass)

UT - semi-independent commission (likely to pass)

MO - independent demographer draws state leg maps, requires 70% of leg to overrule, also imposes campaign contribution limits

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-about-the-candidates-what-else-is-on-the-ballot-this-week/

Good.  How the fuck do we get this on the Texas ballot in 2020?

[berlinerbaer 678]

Aaaannnd Jon Ralston predicts Jacky Rosen to win in NV on Tuesday.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

Quote

Prediction: Rosen, 48 percent; Heller, 46 percent; others and None of these candidates, 6 percent.

Spoiler

Even though the Democratic machine has not built as big of a firewall as in 2012 – 47,000 in Clark County and 23,000 statewide – this is a midterm, and it will be enough. I think.

This has been a strange fortnight of early voting, with turnout much higher than usual for a non-presidential year and with momentum seeming to build for the Democrats and culminating with a Friday wave of votes. (You can read all of the dynamics here on my blog.)

But what’s clear is that younger people are voting in higher numbers, that while the president has animated the right as no other Republican can, Trump Fatigue is beginning to settle in the saner corners of the political universe and anger is rising. What’s also quite evident is that Washoe County, which saved Heller in 2012 when he won by 20,000 votes, has changed a lot. Democrats lead there after early voting by almost 2,000 votes. Heller may win Washoe, where Hillary Clinton also won, but not by a lot more than she did (3,000 votes).

 

Edited November 4, 2018 by berlinerbaer
Jon not John

[Message Board User 12,396]

54 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Anyone want to take a bet that after the governor race is over, Kemp quietly announces there wasn’t any democrat hacking of the voter database?   Well he won’t personally make the announcement, there will be a short press release late on a Friday afternoon.

I don’t even live In Georgia but that’s the one race where I will be very upset if the person I want to see win doesn’t win.

The rest of the races?  Life goes on (at least for me anyway).  But Kemp seems like a truly loathesome human being.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,523]

Isn’t GA most likely going to go to a run off?  When would that be?  I can see a lot of national attention if that occurs. 

For me I hope Kobach in KS loses more than anyone. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

An under discussed consequence of this election are gerrymandering for 2020-2030.   In many states, the governor can veto the newly drawn district maps.   Many of the governors being elected Tuesday will have that power even if the state legislature is controlled by the other party. 

The close governor elections for these states include Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Kansas. 

All of the experts expect the democrats to do well in the governor races.

the democrats only have 16 out of 50 governorships right now. After the election, they should have between 22-24

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,523]

33 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Good.  How the fuck do we get this on the Texas ballot in 2020?

The party with complete power in Texas has no desire to do this. They will wait until they see the writing on the wall that they are losing power to pass that. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

55 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I don’t even live In Georgia but that’s the one race where I will be very upset if the person I want to see win doesn’t win.

The rest of the races?  Life goes on (at least for me anyway).  But Kemp seems like a truly loathesome human being.

Another beatdown at the hands of republicans in Florida would piss me off no matter how the rest of the election goes.

The democrats haven’t had control of the governors mansion in Florida since the late 1990’s. I want the prohibition of weed to crumble and I know Gillum would legalize it in Florida. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

If any state needs legalized pot, it’s Florida 

[cactusflinthead 27,602]

 

Woefully lacking in details 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,899]

 
Woefully lacking in details 

Somebody's scared

[cactusflinthead 27,602]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

9 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 
Woefully lacking in details 

Somebody's scared

Correcto! 

[sushihorn 3,233]

With EV mostly over I know some of you political junkies are going into withdrawal waiting for Tuesday.  So here's a little taste. This guy has compiled all sorts of detailed data from North Carolina.  It covers the waterfront from age, party affiliation, percentage of high-prob voters who have and haven't cast their vote, geographic breakdown by county type.  If you sip slowly it might get you through the next 36 hours.  Enjoy.

https://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2018/11/nc-early-votes-11-4-18.html#more

[Celery Man 20,996]

crossposting from the voter suppression page

[cactusflinthead 27,602]

7 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

With EV mostly over I know some of you political junkies are going into withdrawal waiting for Tuesday.  So here's a little taste. This guy has compiled all sorts of detailed data from North Carolina.  It covers the waterfront from age, party affiliation, percentage of high-prob voters who have and haven't cast their vote, geographic breakdown by county type.  If you sip slowly it might get you through the next 36 hours.  Enjoy.

https://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2018/11/nc-early-votes-11-4-18.html#more

Thanks, but I am not going to count the stack until it's done. If you haven't noticed the game is still at play. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,797]

Kemp seems like a real piece of shit 

[Celery Man 20,996]

more of a puddle than a piece

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,523]

how does everyone want to run the threads on Tuesday?  One big free for all thread or break it into areas of interest.  Like Beto-Cruz gameday, Other Texas, Senate, House, All Other?

[GSU&UT 1,798]

I'll protest, but what the fuck legal recourse is there? I'm sure suits will be filed if Kemp wins, but what can ultimately be done? I feel so fucking helpless and just boiling over with anger.

 

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

how does everyone want to run the threads on Tuesday?  One big free for all thread or break it into areas of interest.  Like Beto-Cruz gameday, Other Texas, Senate, House, All Other?

I prefer a big thread honestly because we're all going to be watching races all over the country.

Edited November 4, 2018 by GSU&UT

[Bama Chick 28,596]

I would prefer one big thread only because it gets bothersome to jump back and forth.

But I’m an old fat Facebook mom from Alabama so apparently my vote won’t count.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,899]

how does everyone want to run the threads on Tuesday?  One big free for all thread or break it into areas of interest.  Like Beto-Cruz gameday, Other Texas, Senate, House, All Other?

All Encompassing 2018 Election Day Thread of Civility. Trolls Will Be Banned

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,899]

I would prefer one big thread only because it gets bothersome to jump back and forth.

But I’m an old fat Facebook mom from Alabama so apparently my vote won’t count.

Paging Doctor Mackey

[sushihorn 3,233]

24 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Thanks, but I am not going to count the stack until it's done. If you haven't noticed the game is still at play. 

Won't argue with that sentiment.  Just thought it might be an entertaining way to pass today and tomorrow.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

how does everyone want to run the threads on Tuesday?  One big free for all thread or break it into areas of interest.  Like Beto-Cruz gameday, Other Texas, Senate, House, All Other?

I’d like to have a “Hungry for Power Games - Faces of the Fallen” thread for GOP guys that lost their jobs.

 

 We can already start it with Paul Ryan, Gowdy, Flake, and Corker.

 

[cactusflinthead 27,602]

A midterm election is like a pointillist painting, each individual race a dot that by Wednesday morning will add up to an image that will provide some answer to the question of the moment: the identity of America as it is today, its aspirations and values, the tone and tenor of the debate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/this-midterm-election-is-like-no-other-in-a-generation/2018/11/04/dd92e236-df9d-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html?utm_term=.8143b74d8894

Quote was chosen for pointillist. 

[RomaVicta 30,018]

32 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

how does everyone want to run the threads on Tuesday?  One big free for all thread or break it into areas of interest.  Like Beto-Cruz gameday, Other Texas, Senate, House, All Other?

Please break it down into digestible bits for the non-junkies like me. Maybe have a general overview thread separate from those?

Beto-Cruz

Non Senate Texas Congress Races

Texas State races

Governors Races

State Trend

National Trend

FOX News/Trump response

Other News and Response

Big Picture Surly Observations

Crazy, Funny Shit

A thread with a link to find results easily.

Just my two cents. You guys who follow this closely name names in other states that I don't recognize by either party or office. Congrats to y'all for keeping up and shame on me not knowing shit, but election night will be made easier if I can cruise among the Surly, local, state and national news.

The night will probably go like the West Virginia or Oklahoma games. Or both at the same time. 

[Francisco 2.0 32,428]

https://wwa.gop/pw18

 

Quote

Election season is almost over, but we need a strong finish on Tuesday to ensure an honest and fair election occurs here in Texas! Up and down the ballot, Republican victories are at stake and we cannot let critical polls go ‘un-watched’.

As a poll watcher you will be trained and equipped with the knowledge you need to work a poll location near you. In exchange for your time, you will be 1099 compensated with a payment for $150 for the day...Tuesday 7a-7p. Ideally you can work the entire day, but if you can work at least half of the day, that would work too.

Spots are limited, so complete the form below now to get on the team! Use this opportunity to match purpose with pay and ensure that we don’t let this election slip away due to foul play. 

Once the form below is completed you will receive an email with details on how to join our training conference call to discuss details and get you on board! Thank you!!

 

[cactusflinthead 27,602]

Yes, election night threads are similar to game ones, move fast and keep up. I expect Twitter to be at turbo speed. Hang on and ride! Woooo!

Ric Flair gif