2018 - Elections and Trends

[RomaVicta 29,957]

I used to wait until election day. I just liked the feel of everybody doing something on the same day sorta like Thanksgiving. I voted at the same elementary school every election (that I bothered to vote) and just got a kick out of it.

I voted early this year. Took an hour at the Randall's, but I wanted to make sure I got my vote in this time. It's the first time in quite a while that I've felt it mattered.

I'll enjoy a blue victory should it come. At least I'll enjoy for a day or two until the depressing reality sets in that 40% of the electorate are Trumpist. 

[Storm the Field 5,299]

LOL, final Rasmussen poll has generic ballot of GOP +1 (46/45). Bold, even by their standards.

If that's the result tomorrow, I'll eat a MAGA hat.

[UTDD 362]

27 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why do so many people apparently wait until actual Election Day to vote?  I can't imagine putting myself in that position if I had the option to vote early.

I know a few people that do it that way because they can get time off work and often people take a half day with no resistance for that reason.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

 

Kemp is going to win tomorrow and we literally can do nothing about it. I'm just so fucking disgusted right now that my state has elections that are no more fair than those being held in African and Eastern-European countries.

Call me a whiney hyperbolic snowflake, but I legit don't know if I want to live here anymore if we can't do anything legal to stop this. I don't think the courts will do shit since a fucking federal judge last month, who completely charged Kemp with not running a proper voting system, said it was "too soon" to the midterms to force paper ballots to be used.

[Js1 85,465]

DOJ sending out election monitors to "focus on voter fraud."  Includes places such as........

Maricopa in AZ (competitive Senate race)

Fairfax in VA (mmhm)

4 different Florida counties (uh huh)

Fulton/Gwinett in GA (oh I see)

Harris/Tarrant/Waller in TX  (yup)

Clark/Washoe in NV (ohhhhhhhhh)

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

DOJ sending out election monitors to "focus on voter fraud."  Includes places such as........

Maricopa in AZ (competitive Senate race)

Fairfax in VA (mmhm)

4 different Florida counties (uh huh)

Fulton/Gwinett in GA (oh I see)

Harris/Tarrant/Waller in TX  (yup)

Clark/Washoe in NV (ohhhhhhhhh)

 

Trump is a simple minded idiot who only cares about “winning”. He’d much rather rig the outcome then lose playing straight up. He’s an embarassing 70 year old manchild.

[Hank Kingsley 21,001]

18 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Kemp is going to win tomorrow and we literally can do nothing about it. I'm just so fucking disgusted right now that my state has elections that are no more fair than those being held in African and Eastern-European countries.

Call me a whiney hyperbolic snowflake, but I legit don't know if I want to live here anymore if we can't do anything legal to stop this. I don't think the courts will do shit since a fucking federal judge last month, who completely charged Kemp with not running a proper voting system, said it was "too soon" to the midterms to force paper ballots to be used.

You clearly have a better pulse on the situation than I do, but it feels inevitable that things will boil over in Georgia no matter who wins this election. Kemp wins, and a lot of Georgians will protest.  Abrams wins, and Kemp will find a way to dirty things up and not concede. 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,519]

3 hours ago, NameWithHeld said:

Nice to see liberal tolerance in action

[A Cellar Honker 19]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I associate with the GOP?  Didn't one of your Congressmen come out and say all Jews need to become Christians for there to be peace in the Middle East?

[A Cellar Honker 19]

1 hour ago, GSU&UT said:

Ahh the old Liberals are the racists/antisemitic because they aren't fully in love with Israel.

Don’t forget the Muslims and the blacks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/02/19/entrenched-anti-semitic-views-very-rare-among-whites-and-asian-americans-common-among-blacks-and-latinos/?utm_term=.b96b06737677

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by A Cellar Honker

[Bateshorn 9,928]

26 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump is a simple minded idiot who only cares about “winning”. He’d much rather rig the outcome then lose playing straight up. He’s an embarassing 70 year old manchild.

That's not Trump.  That's Jefferson Beauregard.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

The Keebler Klansman lost his seat to a democrat.  Just saying 

[6th Street 6,460]

22 minutes ago, A Cellar Honker said:

Don’t forget the Muslims and the blacks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/02/19/entrenched-anti-semitic-views-very-rare-among-whites-and-asian-americans-common-among-blacks-and-latinos/?utm_term=.b96b06737677

 

You mean those Muslims that raised $200k for the Pittsburgh synagogue victims?

https://kfor.com/2018/10/31/muslim-communities-raise-more-than-200k-in-4-days-for-synagogue-shooting-victims/

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

Full list

 

[Storm the Field 5,299]

Some final predictions trickling in:

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Full list

 

Sending staff to four places in Alaska seems like punishment 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

28 minutes ago, A Cellar Honker said:

Don’t forget the Muslims and the blacks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/02/19/entrenched-anti-semitic-views-very-rare-among-whites-and-asian-americans-common-among-blacks-and-latinos/?utm_term=.b96b06737677

 

You are a dumbass.

[Js1 85,465]

Wait, what?  Sean T got his numbers mixed up?

He expects 34 but would be surprised at more than 20 or less than 47 - but that's where his expectation is?  Maybe he means he'd be surprised at more than 47 or less than 20?

[A Cellar Honker 19]

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

you are going to convince literally zero people that the democrats are secretly the party that hates the 'others.'  you are wasting very valuable internet space.

[immortal13 4,059]

Do Muslims like Jews?

[Storm the Field 5,299]

Just now, Js1 said:

Wait, what?  Sean T got his numbers mixed up?

He expects 34 but would be surprised at more than 20 or less than 47 - but that's where his expectation is?  Maybe he means he'd be surprised at more than 47 or less than 20?

Yeah, pretty clear that his numbers in response to the 2nd question are in reverse order. Expectation of 34 seat pickup, with a floor of 20 and ceiling of 47.

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

Republicans are also relentlessly — and falsely — claiming they are the ones who will protect people with preexisting conditions. GOP-aligned groups have been falsely claiming that Democrats want to cut hundreds of billions from Medicare, recycling a lie from previous election cycles. Trump has also been claiming that if Republicans win the elections, they’ll immediately push through a massive tax cut for the middle class, which is almost certainly complete nonsense. Republican candidates have been falsely claiming that the GOP tax cut paid for itself.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/11/05/the-moment-is-now-upon-us-all-the-lies-must-be-defeated-decisively/

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

Rep. King: I’m not disagreeing with you. You want me to define a lie? When something is obviously wrong and you say it, is it really a lie? I don’t know.

Liuba: YES! That is the definition.

 

[Brisketexan 105,190]

28 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

You remember when the Trumpkin crowd used to mockingly call Obama the left's "savior," even though such rhetoric was effectively non-existent among Obama's supporters?

Now, you have the fundagelicals LITERALLY EQUATING TRUMP WITH JESUS CHRIST, CITING GOSPEL.....and, you know, that's cool.

Shit, part of me wishes the second coming would happen RIGHT NOW.  Flipping over the tables of the money changers would be some minor-league shit compared to what He'd bring today.

 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

1 hour ago, A Cellar Honker said:

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/louis-farrakhan-on-donald-trump-i-like-what-im-looking-at

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

 

[Storm the Field 5,299]

Cook Political House Predictions:

210 lean D, 195 lean R, 30 tossups. 

GOP would need to win 3/4 of the tossups to hold.

NYT Upshot polls of the Cook Political Toss-ups ended with the D candidate ahead by about a point, on average. 

[Js1 85,465]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

Ralston had basically said 40k was a good Clark firewall for a statewide win and Heller would sweat.  45k would make Heller nauseous.  47k has to have him puking up his guts.

[Jack Straw 2,954]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s fully representative of trumps version of the GOP

And there is no “Non-Trump version” of the GOP.  

So it is absolutely representative of the Republican Party.  

[Zonahorn 8,079]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ralston had basically said 40k was a good Clark firewall for a statewide win and Heller would sweat.  45k would make Heller nauseous.  47k has to have him puking up his guts.

This is the year we add his head to the wall

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

This is the year we add his head to the wall

Heller appears to be in deep shit.

the repubs have done horrendous in Washoe County so far. In addition, you’d have to assume that most independents in Clark county ( Las Vegas) are voting democrat.

Edited November 5, 2018 by Voldemort86

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

28 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

And there is no “Non-Trump version” of the GOP.  

So it is absolutely representative of the Republican Party.  

well, yeah unless you want to retire. You  can lob insults on Twitter and call them out and even work to defeat them. eg. Rick Wilson

[Mack Tripper 696]

28 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/louis-farrakhan-on-donald-trump-i-like-what-im-looking-at

Cray recognize cray.

[atomheartbevo 89,771]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

You clearly have a better pulse on the situation than I do, but it feels inevitable that things will boil over in Georgia no matter who wins this election. Kemp wins, and a lot of Georgians will protest.  Abrams wins, and Kemp will find a way to dirty things up and not concede. 

Kemp isn’t governor so it’s not like he can try and stay in office somehow. 

If he pulls some stunt and says that as SOS, he can prevent her from taking office (mythical mass voter fraud, etc.), then he’s gonna find himself in a world of shit.   Arguably, his political career is over if she wins.  There won’t be many Republican politicians willing to climb on board a clearly sinking USS Kemp if he tries to prevent her from taking office.  

Which is why I think he’s so desperate.   He knows he’s finished if he loses.  Nobody in the GOP wants to take on a loser like him later on.  

[Js1 85,465]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kemp isn’t governor so it’s not like he can try and stay in office somehow. 

If he pulls some stunt and says that as SOS, he can prevent her from taking office (mythical mass voter fraud, etc.), then he’s gonna find himself in a world of shit.   Arguably, his political career is over if she wins.  There won’t be many Republican politicians willing to climb on board a clearly sinking USS Kemp if he tries to prevent her from taking office.  

Which is why I think he’s so desperate.   He knows he’s finished if he loses.  Nobody in the GOP wants to take on a loser like him later on.  

I assume he wouldn't certify the results under the guide of "fraud" and challenge it at every court level for as long as he can.

And don't forget, while you're looking at Georgia, Kris Kobach is going to be in the same boat in Kansas.  If he loses....

Edited November 5, 2018 by Js1

[HRSchenker 2,271]

I'm going to be watching Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's election really closely because apparently, Joe Crowley is still on the ballot in that district. Trying to play spoiler? Maybe he could pull off the upset and retain his seat? How wild would that be lol

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

4 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

I'm going to be watching Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's election really closely because apparently, Joe Crowley is still on the ballot in that district. Trying to play spoiler? Maybe he could pull off the upset and retain his seat? How wild would that be lol

Crowley is going to get obliterated.  What a sore loser. 

[atomheartbevo 89,771]

4 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the confederacy is shameless.  in germany they were able to squash out those attitudes almost immediately after wwii.  we still hold on to ours 150 years later.

Jefferson Davis wasn’t willing to eat a bullet for the Confederacy, and the Union wasn’t willing to hang traitors.   

[sushihorn 3,233]

8 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

I'm going to be watching Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's election really closely because apparently, Joe Crowley is still on the ballot in that district. Trying to play spoiler? Maybe he could pull off the upset and retain his seat? How wild would that be lol

There's the precedent of the AK Senate race with Murkowski(?) a few years back.

[atomheartbevo 89,771]

3 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Theory:  there was a systematic polling error in 2016 because of the 'shy Trump supporter.'  

That won't repeat itself here because they are all proudly and vocally racist now that it has been normalized.  The polls will turn out to be more accurate this time.

The amount of people willing to answer phone calls from unknown answers has probably dropped substantially after all of the spam calls many are getting.  

Polling will be off. 

[atomheartbevo 89,771]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I assume he wouldn't certify the results under the guide of "fraud" and challenge it at every court level for as long as he can.

And don't forget, while you're looking at Georgia, Kris Kobach is going to be in the same boat in Kansas.  If he loses....

If he pulls a stunt like that, I assume the GOP at some level will come down on him hard.  Really hard.   Those kinds of shenanigans are the kinds of things that could lay the groundwork for even more Dem votes in 2020.  

It may only be 16 electoral votes, but Kemp would be tossing them out the window.  GOP won’t be happy.  

Edited November 5, 2018 by atomheartbevo

[gmr548 16,590]

If he pulls a stunt like that, I assume the GOP at some level will come down on him hard.  Really hard.   Those kinds of shenanigans are the kinds of things that could lay the groundwork for even more Dem votes in 2020.  
It may only be 16 electoral votes, but Kemp would be tossing them out the window.  GOP won’t be happy.  

I loled.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[atomheartbevo 89,771]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

NYT/Siena top line was Cruz 51-43 but there's 7 different turnout models ranging from Cruz +15 (2014 turnout) to Beto +3 ("people who say they are certain to vote") where the average is Cruz +6.57 which is in line with a lot of expectations.

 

The no-name Dem got 41% in 2012 against Cruz while raising less than $140,000.

and Cruz was helped out by it being a Presidential election.  

[atomheartbevo 89,771]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I loled.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Think Trump won’t need those 16 electoral votes on 2020?

Kemp is toast if he loses.  

[Mack Tripper 696]

20 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

I'm going to be watching Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's election really closely because apparently, Joe Crowley is still on the ballot in that district. Trying to play spoiler? Maybe he could pull off the upset and retain his seat? How wild would that be lol

My understanding is that some third party group who doesn't like AOC submitted Crowley's name as their candidate and is distributing fliers with Crowley on them. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Oh well good for him.  Not a sore loser. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,519]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The no-name Dem got 41% in 2012 against Cruz while raising less than $140,000.

and Cruz was helped out by it being a Presidential election.  

yes and no - Cruz was a bit of an unknown himself at the time, and Sadler was basically a stand in for "generic democrat", with only about a point worse than the President. Likewise, Cruz was about a point worse than Romney, 

[Storm the Field 5,299]

Another one, from Henry Olsen at National Review/EPPC. FWIW, this guy is a rather conservative election pundit.