2018 - Elections and Trends

[Valmy77 13,093]

Ok guys I hope all of you find time to vote today if you have not already, even if you just write-in IP Freely for each office.

[G650 14,072]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

Ok guys I hope all of you find time to vote today if you have not already, even if you just write-in IP Freely for each office.

I voted Michael Jackson for President in '04. Not even making that up.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

https://www.statesman.com/news/20181106/travis-county-clerks-website-with-polling-locations-crashes-on-election-day

[Patrick Bateman 3,903]

2 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

https://www.statesman.com/news/20181106/travis-county-clerks-website-with-polling-locations-crashes-on-election-day

 

[seven 1,366]

Just voted for Claire, medical marijuana, and 3 tax increases. Feels good 

[mdmost 42,825]

Walked up to the school at 7am. Took about 15 minutes to vote. Took the kids with us so they could watch the process. Line was short. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Just voted. Medium sized line, lots of olds.

It was very disheartening to see fully 70% of the races were Republicans running unopposed. I wrote in Nick Saban for all of those.

Voted for Walt Maddox and voted no to putting the Ten Commandments on state property (the Roy Moore amendment), no to fetus personhood/outlaw abortion, and no to eliminating special elections for vacant seats (the no more Doug Jones amendment).

Go vote!

[G650 14,072]

Well, got it done. 

 

Was definitely busier than typical midterm.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

47 star flag.  No AK, HI and . . .  OK I think?  Maybe NV?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

Nope.  AZ.  

[Storm the Field 5,271]

Looks like betting markets have started herding towards the polling forecasts. Some movement towards D House in the last 48 hours.

Bovada  was at -240 over the weekend. Went to -300 yesterday and -350 today. 

Predictit has gone from $0.69 bid on D house to $0.74 this morning.

 

[Ghost of Shag 2,577]

I live in Florida, and work at a location that is used for polling.

Never seen a turnout like this.  There are a hundred people in the lobby waiting to vote, and it has been that way all day.  

[Mapache 1,117]

Go  Xochitl for NM !! ...She's smart and a cutie.   It looks like the Dems are going to sweep NM !

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by Mapache

[Post Oak 20,182]

25 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Just voted. Medium sized line, lots of olds.

It was very disheartening to see fully 70% of the races were Republicans running unopposed. I wrote in Nick Saban for all of those.

Voted for Walt Maddox and voted no to putting the Ten Commandments on state property (the Roy Moore amendment), no to fetus personhood/outlaw abortion, and no to eliminating special elections for vacant seats (the no more Doug Jones amendment).

Go vote!

[bad_teammate 13,131]

2020 ads will literally feature the Happy Merchant and both-siders will finger-wag the left for calling it anti-Semitic

Stolen from some tweet...

2016: "You guys are acting like Trump is going to start up concentration camps, stop being ridiculous."

2018: "First of all, it's offensive that you're calling them concentration camps."

2020: "Look, they had a chance to leave. How can you be so outraged about this when they CHOSE to stay?"

And this is how the centrists lubricate the Slip'n'Slide to fascism.

Edited November 6, 2018 by bad_teammate

[GSU&UT 1,798]

FUCK YOU KEMP!!!! Reading a ton of tweets and posts on r/Atlanta that people are noticing a lot fewer machines at polling locations vs. the same day in 2016. Jesus fucking christ, wait times are getting insane and people are leaving and (hopefully) coming back later.

[Js1 85,085]

56 minutes ago, Ghost of Shag said:

I live in Florida, and work at a location that is used for polling.

Never seen a turnout like this.  There are a hundred people in the lobby waiting to vote, and it has been that way all day.  

 

39 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

FUCK YOU KEMP!!!! Reading a ton of tweets and posts on r/Atlanta that people are noticing a lot fewer machines at polling locations vs. the same day in 2016. Jesus fucking christ, wait times are getting insane and people are leaving and (hopefully) coming back later.

 

Report the lines. Feed them.  Keep them in line. 

https://polls.pizza/

[GSU&UT 1,798]

Yup, I already submitted several tweets and locations to them and it looks like it worked.

[Pancho 44,432]

 

[Grandioso 2,592]

I want to kiss Katy Tur on the mouth.

[thepop 4,409]

Fuck Kemp

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

1 minute ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

Looks rather empty in the photos.

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

According to the wait times map, multiple sites on the East Side and Southwest Austin are over an hour.  Most of West and Northwest Austin is green. 

[Huckleberry 32,694]

In a follow-up tweet it says the Border Patrol exercise was canceled.

[Lurch 5,921]

Of course they will.  
My favorite last second shenanigans is going to occur in Fla on Jan. 9th.  Three justices have to retire that day due to age.  The law reads like they are out at midnight.  Rick Scott will be governor until ~noon that day.  Scott has said that he will appoint 3 state supreme court justices in his final hours to serve 6 years each.  How many people think Rick would work closely with potential Gov. Gillum to appoint justices that will serve all Floridians?
This happened once before in '99 with 1 justice retiring and a Dem was replaced by a Repub (Jeb.)  They compromised on a justice.   

I’m not sure it actually does anything, but here in my first year as a FL resident I learned we get to affirm/not the state court justices. They were all R appointments (doesn’t show that on ballot) so I voted against them all.

[Storm the Field 5,271]

Final 538 models:

House:

"Lite" 233-202, 80.5% chance of D majority. Range from 17-61 gain.

"Deluxe" 231-204, 85.8% chance of D majority. 20-54 seat gain.

"Classic" 234-201, 87.9% chance of D majority. 21-59 seat gain.

Senate:

52-48 in all models. Between 79-81% chance of GOP majority.

FWIW, Silver thinks his "Deluxe" models will be closest to actual result.

[Js1 85,085]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

According to the wait times map, multiple sites on the East Side and Southwest Austin are over an hour.  Most of West and Northwest Austin is green. 

Send them pizza!

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Send them pizza!

Requires a social media link.  Don't have that.

[Brisketexan 104,534]

1 hour ago, Mapache said:

Go  Xochitl for NM !! ...She's smart and a cutie.   It looks like the Dems are going to sweep NM !

 

Saw her ads when I was in El Paso recently.  I kinda dig her.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Requires a social media link.  Don't have that.

You should be able to search twitter easily, that's all the need.

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

Just now, GSU&UT said:

You should be able to search twitter easily, that's all the need.

My twitter knowledge is purely from the links people post here.  I don't venture into that hellscape personally.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

Isn't the south great? Sounds like Pizza to the polls is hitting this place up multiple times.

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

6 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the south great? Sounds like Pizza to the polls is hitting this place up multiple times.

 

First I've heard of this. Sent a pizza. https://polls.pizza/

[Js1 85,085]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

My twitter knowledge is purely from the links people post here.  I don't venture into that hellscape personally.

If you tell us the name of what locations have long lines, I'm sure Surly's #1 Detective Agency can do the work to find the social media post and request the pizzas.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

[Patrick Bateman 3,903]

It's really strange to see a few of the news channels, but notably CNN, give so much coverage to VA10.  It hasn't been remotely close in the polling.  Having friends who live there, they think Wexton should cruise to a win but 5-6 points minimum.

 

[Fozzz 152]

I have a feeling long waits are going to become more and more of the norm.  Rally the base and do whatever is in your power to keep the other side from voting.

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by Fozzz

[Gil Bang 25,894]

FWIW, this is wrong.  49 is Issa's seat.  That crooked-ass Harkey isn't the incumbent.

 

3 hours ago, sushihorn said:

If any of you care about EV in contested CA House districts, this is the latest compiled by Political Data Inc. Last updated yesterday unless indicated otherwise.

 

CA-50 (RCP rates leans R) - incumbent Hunter (R): registered D 27,047, registered R 44,048, other/independent 21,784

CA-49 (leans D) - incumbent Harkey (R): D 38,606, R 45,878, I 28,554

CA-48 (tossup) - incumbent Rohrbacher(R): D 39,779, R 53,385, I 29,732

CA-45 (T) - incumbent Walters (R): D 39,806, R 52,721, I 31,928

CA-39 (T) - open seat (R): 26,754 D, 34,230 R, 19,311 I

CA-25 (T) - Incumbent Knight (R): 27,349 D, 28,977 R, 16,614 I

CA -24 (Likely D) - Incumbent Carbajal (D): 47,459 D, 43,075 R, 27,247 I

CA-22 (Likely R) - Incumbent Nunes (R): 24,146 D, 36,638 R, 13,423 I

CA-21 (Likely R) - Incumbent Valdao (R): D 17,500, R 16,242, I 8,137

CA-10 (T) - Incumbent Denham (R): 30,138 D, 30,137 R, 14,455 I.  Last updated 11/2

CA-7 (Leans D) - Incumbent Bera (D): 42,077 D, 39,404 R, 24,106 I. Last updated 11/2

CA-4 (Leans R) - Incumbent McClintock (R): 44,033 D, 62,033 R, 30,753 I.  Last updated 11/2

 

[Gil Bang 25,894]

Don't let the door hit you on the ass, Mimi 

[kopp0e 1,135]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

2020 ads will literally feature the Happy Merchant and both-siders will finger-wag the left for calling it anti-Semitic

Stolen from some tweet...

2016: "You guys are acting like Trump is going to start up concentration camps, stop being ridiculous."

2018: "First of all, it's offensive that you're calling them concentration camps."

2020: "Look, they had a chance to leave. How can you be so outraged about this when they CHOSE to stay?"

And this is how the centrists lubricate the Slip'n'Slide to fascism.

In that progression, I wonder what the years of 2024 & 2026, would say under the same current administration...

[Zonahorn 8,079]

Chances this happens if Hillary gets elected: zero

https://theintercept.com/2018/11/05/democratic-party-donald-trump-election/ 

[Ghost of LL 15,465]

44,500 people have now voted in Travis County.  That number needs to get to about 125,000 in order to assuage concerns about early vote having cannibalized the Election Day turnout.  

We look to be pretty close to the glidepath.  

[Aqua Buddha 14,500]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

44,500 people have now voted in Travis County.  That number needs to get to about 125,000 in order to assuage concerns about early vote having cannibalized the Election Day turnout.  

We look to be pretty close to the glidepath.  

Thanks for that update.  I had wondered about that nationwide.  Was the early voting coming out of election day?  Judging by the rest of the country, the answer is no.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

44,500 people have now voted in Travis County.  That number needs to get to about 125,000 in order to assuage concerns about early vote having cannibalized the Election Day turnout.  

We look to be pretty close to the glidepath.  

where ya finding those numbers?

[Ghost of LL 15,465]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Thanks for that update.  I had wondered about that nationwide.  Was the early voting coming out of election day?  Judging by the rest of the country, the answer is no.  

Travis County is a very small data point when looking nationwide.  But given how Democratic it is, it's an encouraging very small data point.

By the way--the Travis County Clerk is tweeting out those numbers hourly.

I'm not aware of any other county clerk doing the same.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Ghost of LL

[Huckleberry 32,694]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

where ya finding those numbers?

https://twitter.com/TravisCoClerk

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by Huckleberry

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

https://twitter.com/TravisCoClerk

 

fart, already out of rep. thanks!

[Huckleberry 32,694]

I would assume, with no check of historical info, that there will be a slowdown after lunch through the 3pm numbers and then another spike after that.

[Aqua Buddha 14,500]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

I would assume, with no check of historical info, that there will be a slowdown after lunch through the 3pm numbers and then another spike after that.

When the busloads of illegals show up, it'll spike again.

[atomheartbevo 89,391]

51 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the south great? Sounds like Pizza to the polls is hitting this place up multiple times.

 

Georgia you say?  Why that doesn’t sound fishy at all.