2018 - Elections and Trends

[Ted Lange 16,084]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump May have been right about Love declining the trump embrace. May have given her a thousand votes.   Republican politicians have a dilemma for 2020 in accepting or declining the trump love. 

Trump won't be much of a factor in 2020 - either he bails because somebody has crunched the numbers on WI/MI/PA/AZ/etc. and told him he can't pull it off, or the Mueller stuff has played out and thanks to a Dem House, we get all of the juicy details, and Republicans in contested areas flee from him.

 

[bolverk 29,660]

8 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

That's what a failing democracy looks like.

America isn't a democracy - it's a republic.

Hurr durr

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

Meanwhile, in Utah. 

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/20/its-over-democrat-ben/

Quote

Meanwhile, in the state’s other close-up-to-the-end race, Proposition 4 that seeks to end gerrymandering by creating an independent commission to redraw political boundaries after each Census also won — by a 50.34-49.66 margin.

 

[Mdhorn 5,948]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Meanwhile, in Utah. 

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/20/its-over-democrat-ben/

 

Feels nice when the good guys people win.  End gerrymandering, and it's a landslide.  

Edited November 21, 2018 by Mdhorn

[thepop 4,409]

10 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

“buT wHAT hApPeneD To tHe BLuE wAVE?”

[Guest Lobo]

I read (from a decent news source, national...based out of New York) that 35+ districts nationwide that went for Democrats were not contested by any Republican.  I get it.  Happens every cycle.  But that number seems higher than usual.  My question is how many GOP districts were uncontested by a Democrat?  I can't google it correctly, not getting the answer to my question.  Thanks. 

[Js1 85,311]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/midterms-uncontested-candidates/

40 Democrat seats uncontested

3 GOP seats uncontested

Not unusual for wave years - see 2010.

[gmr548 16,576]

Yep. Pete Sessions was unopposed in 16 even while Clinton carried his district. This is the first time in a while that Ds invested in putting candidates, and generally good ones at that, up across the board.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Pancho 44,757]

 

[Guest Lobo]

7% edge to Democrats for gross nationwide House votes.  Same as their seat margin.  So maybe correct representation reared its ugly head?  Maybe Gerrymandering still an effect.  Maybe nearly 50 races unopposed on both sides played a role.  There's more to unpack here, but this isn't the thread obviously.  

Meantime, my party was shut out.  But plurality, here we come!  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

7% edge to Democrats for gross nationwide House votes.  Same as their seat margin.  So maybe correct representation reared its ugly head?  Maybe Gerrymandering still an effect.  Maybe nearly 50 races unopposed on both sides played a role.  There's more to unpack here, but this isn't the thread obviously.  

Meantime, my party was shut out.  But plurality, here we come!  

We got close to 40 seats, but it should’ve been in the 60’s or 70’s if it wasn’t for gerrymandering. Dems need to fight like hell to get some competitive maps next time.

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

N.Y. times only has 2 races uncalled.  Both gop held seats in NY. One looks has the Dem ahead and the other has Collins, the indicted Gop rep ahead. 

[Biff Tannen 45,673]

We got close to 40 seats, but it should’ve been in the 60’s or 70’s if it wasn’t for gerrymandering. Dems need to fight like hell to get some competitive maps next time.

If by competitive you mean non-partisan and logical and representative and fair, then yes.

[Gil Bang 25,944]

 

RACE CALL RETRACTION IN CA-21

November 21, 2018 at 8:03 pm ∙ House, Uncategorized ∙ Brandon Finnigan

Decision Desk HQ is retracting the call we made in the CA-21 race. On election night we called the race for incumbent Congressman David Valadao over Democratic challenger T.J. Cox.

Valadao finished election night with an 8% lead over Cox. As the mail in votes came in over the last two weeks, that lead has shrunk to the point we can no longer stand by our call. To give you an idea of how unusual, if not unprecedented, it is for a lead this large to be reversed, the AP and the networks called the race on election night as well.

While we anticipated far closer Republican leads on election night to evaporate (like in CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, and CA-45), the margin in CA-21 appeared far too large to vanish with the mail-ins yet to be counted. After watching Cox’s vote share increasing dramatically with these votes over the last ten days, it became increasingly clear to us this call was the rare one where such votes could swing things in a dramatic fashion.

Today, at 3pm PST, Fresno County updated its vote count, and those numbers were the tipping point for us. Rep. Valadao’s lead has shrunk from over 4900 and 8% on 11/7 to just over 400 with thousands of additional ballots left to count in areas favoring Cox. It is still quite possible for Valadao to hold his seat, but if he does, it will be by a very, very slim margin, certainly not the margin inferred on election night.

These are never easy to write, and there is never a “good time” to do them, especially with a holiday looming. We did not time this announcement to be overlooked in the holiday rush- and we will re-tweet this retraction on Friday morning in case it gets overlooked.

CA-21, CALL RETRACTION

[Js1 85,311]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

N.Y. times only has 2 races uncalled.  Both gop held seats in NY. One looks has the Dem ahead and the other has Collins, the indicted Gop rep ahead. 

NYT needs to uncall CA-21 and call those 2. Tenney lost and Collins won. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

10 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

RACE CALL RETRACTION IN CA-21

November 21, 2018 at 8:03 pm ∙ House, Uncategorized ∙ Brandon Finnigan

Decision Desk HQ is retracting the call we made in the CA-21 race. On election night we called the race for incumbent Congressman David Valadao over Democratic challenger T.J. Cox.

Valadao finished election night with an 8% lead over Cox. As the mail in votes came in over the last two weeks, that lead has shrunk to the point we can no longer stand by our call. To give you an idea of how unusual, if not unprecedented, it is for a lead this large to be reversed, the AP and the networks called the race on election night as well.

While we anticipated far closer Republican leads on election night to evaporate (like in CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, and CA-45), the margin in CA-21 appeared far too large to vanish with the mail-ins yet to be counted. After watching Cox’s vote share increasing dramatically with these votes over the last ten days, it became increasingly clear to us this call was the rare one where such votes could swing things in a dramatic fashion.

Today, at 3pm PST, Fresno County updated its vote count, and those numbers were the tipping point for us. Rep. Valadao’s lead has shrunk from over 4900 and 8% on 11/7 to just over 400 with thousands of additional ballots left to count in areas favoring Cox. It is still quite possible for Valadao to hold his seat, but if he does, it will be by a very, very slim margin, certainly not the margin inferred on election night.

These are never easy to write, and there is never a “good time” to do them, especially with a holiday looming. We did not time this announcement to be overlooked in the holiday rush- and we will re-tweet this retraction on Friday morning in case it gets overlooked.

CA-21, CALL RETRACTION

Man...

california really hates trump and I LOVE it. Sometimes I don’t know what other Texans around me are thinking when they blindly vote republican no matter how terrible their candidates are.

[NBMisha 224]

I think that Freso/Bakersfield district has been pub my entire lifetime.  By wide margins.  That is some major change.

[Nivek 16,923]

Man...
california really hates trump and I LOVE it. Sometimes I don’t know what other Texans around me are thinking when they blindly vote republican no matter how terrible their candidates are.

Remember it is not their fault the democrats put up a qualified and experienced candidate who was not charismatic and didn’t talk like a moron.

[Left Coast 863]

2 hours ago, NBMisha said:

I think that Freso/Bakersfield district has been pub my entire lifetime.  By wide margins.  That is some major change.

Same with the Orange County districts. The winning formula for the Dems here in CA is to tie the Republicans to Trump as closely as possible, he is THAT unpopular here, and that was even before his fucked up comments about the fires being CA’s fault.

He is truly radioactive around these parts, despite all his bullshit about the only congressional candidates that lost were the ones that didn’t “embrace” him.

(plus the districts aren’t gerrymandered by politicians, so that helps.)

[Mole 4,330]

Georgia has 2 runoffs with early voting starting on Monday.

In the Secretary of State race, the Libertarian candidate has endorsed the D. https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/libertarian-runner-picks-side-secretary-state-race/6duYkMZZkhGT1OSi9GAwIK/

I voted for Raffensperger in the primary as the least Trumpkin candidate, but I'll gladly vote against him again. They were separated by 16,000 votes. Libertarian Smyth DuVal got 86,000 votes. 

Quote

Libertarian J. Smythe DuVal on Monday threw his support behind Barrow, a former U.S. House member whom he said was able to “fix Georgia’s broken election system” and save tax dollars through a ranked choice voting system that would eliminate separate runoff elections.

“John Barrow is the best choice to represent the interests of all Georgia citizens including independents, Libertarians, and fiscal conservatives,” he said.

The razor-thin race ended with Republican Brad Raffensperger, a state legislator from Johns Creek, roughly 16,000 votes ahead of Barrow. 

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, Mole said:

Georgia has 2 runoffs with early voting starting on Monday.

In the Secretary of State race, the Libertarian candidate has endorsed the D. https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/libertarian-runner-picks-side-secretary-state-race/6duYkMZZkhGT1OSi9GAwIK/

I voted for Raffensperger in the primary as the least Trumpkin candidate, but I'll gladly vote against him again. They were separated by 16,000 votes. Libertarian Smyth DuVal got 86,000 votes. 

 

Georgia Secretary of State is very important.

 

The last one was as crooked as they come. Probably the worst Secretary of State ever.

[Js1 85,311]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

Another win for the leftist cabal 

[Gil Bang 25,944]

13 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Another win for the leftist cabal 

take the loss, pussy. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

I count 4 races not called yet.

CA-21

missisipi Senate special 

and 2 seats in New York.

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

Tough to say what has and hasn’t been called.  CA-21 was called previously by most (all?) media outlets but now flipped due  mail-in vote.   Calling a race and conceding a race really means nothing.  The votes all have to be counted regardless.

however you have to figure that all votes have to be certified soon.

but it does seem like with one of the N.Y. races, the overall loss for the GOP is 40.   I think that exceeded the House worst case in early November.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Js1 85,311]

7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I count 4 races not called yet.

CA-21

missisipi Senate special 

and 2 seats in New York.

 

 

NY-21 and NY-22 should be called. McMurray conceded after the absentee ballots were counted. Claudia Tenney needs to concede, the absentee ballots were counted and she’s now 4000 behind. It’s over. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

Missouri passed a state constitution amendment in November by 62%

• Politicians have to wait 2 years after leaving office to become lobbyists
• no lobbyists gifts over $5  (I guess this basically only allows them to buy a politician a coffee)
• reduce state election campaign limits to lower outside money and lobbyist influence
• create a non-partisan group to draw district lines to limit gerrymandering.

The people spoke.  62% is a pretty big margin.   However big surprise those in power don't like it.  GOP lawmakers are already trying to undermine the bill.  Creating a PAC to reform the redistricting plan.     And they have some Dems onboard because everyone is worried that they will personally get booted from office.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Missouri passed a state constitution amendment in November by 62%

• Politicians have to wait 2 years after leaving office to become lobbyists
• no lobbyists gifts over $5  (I guess this basically only allows them to buy a politician a coffee)
• reduce state election campaign limits to lower outside money and lobbyist influence
• create a non-partisan group to draw district lines to limit gerrymandering.

The people spoke.  62% is a pretty big margin.   However big surprise those in power don't like it.  GOP lawmakers are already trying to undermine the bill.  Creating a PAC to reform the redistricting plan.     And they have some Dems onboard because everyone is worried that they will personally get booted from office.

Who are the 38% who support this shit?

[Zombie 284]

41 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Who are the 38% who support this shit?

Yep. These are bi-partisan wins no matter your state or district.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

Interesting article about the education gap in party affiliation now.  Starts with discussion of "the diploma divide" -- there has never been a stronger party preference for degree'd voters.  But how do you explain TexAgs where, if anything, is more rabidly Republican than ever among college educated folks?  The answer is that if you control for racial / gender animosity, the education thing almost totally disappears.  

 

Quote

When researchers control for voter attitudes on race in addition to white voters’ education level, Tesler says, the diploma divide disappears. No other factor, he says, explains the education gap as well—not economic anxiety, ideology, income, or gender.

David N. Smith, a professor at the University of Kansas, came to a similar conclusion when he and Eric Hanley took a dive into the 2016 American National Election Survey. They found that demographic data such as education are important predictors of which party someone votes for. But “when you bring the attitudes variables into account as well, what emerges is that attitudes loom even larger than demographics,” he told me.

Here’s how he put it: If you look at white people who voted for Trump—both those with college degrees and those without—and identify everybody with a high level of resentment toward minorities, women, and Muslims, as well as those who want an arrogant, assertive leader, there’s almost no one left. The vast majority of Trump voters share those sentiments, the researchers found, regardless of education level.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/11/education-gap-explains-american-politics/575113/

[Celery Man 20,934]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

28 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

 

I would assume this is the case in almost every House race across the nation, unless there are extenuating circumstances on why the Dem candidate had personal strong negatives.

[The Royal We 3,072]

<CSB Alert>  - I went to summer camp with Abby Livingston almost every summer growing up.  She's from Fort Worth, went to UT and has done some amazing things already in her career.  It's pretty cool to see her flourishing.  </CSB Alert>

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

13 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

<CSB Alert>  - I went to summer camp with Abby Livingston almost every summer growing up.  She's from Fort Worth, went to UT and has done some amazing things already in her career.  It's pretty cool to see her flourishing.  </CSB Alert>

[The Royal We 3,072]

Lulz.  I was playing punch and tickle with one of her friends, not her, so you're going to be waiting for a while.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

14 hours ago, Js1 said:

NY-21 and NY-22 should be called. McMurray conceded after the absentee ballots were counted. Claudia Tenney needs to concede, the absentee ballots were counted and she’s now 4000 behind. It’s over. 

I was just going based off what New York Times showed. It’s hard to tell for sure what’s done and what isn’t.

 

I hope valadao loses tho. His seat is probably the only outcome that can still change.

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Voldemort86

[zork 629]

with MS called it is 53-47

[Js1 85,311]

 

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

McSally whines.

"Outright hostile to President T..." 

You mean that there's a portion of the Republican party that cannot stand Trump? 

Yep. 

 

[Gil Bang 25,944]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

If that McSally document is representative of the inner workings of her campaign, no wonder she lost.  Factual errors and spelling errors throughout.

[Brisketexan 105,095]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

If that McSally document is representative of the inner workings of her campaign, no wonder she lost.  Factual errors and spelling errors throughout.

It's a barely cogent whirlwind of whining.  It does happen to have a couple of relevant data points therein, but it's primarily a piece of poorly-stated butthurt, so it's hard to sort them out.

[Gatorubet 30,211]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Where is that shit-stain Swam slunk off to??  He swore that the GOP would keep the house.

[Gil Bang 25,944]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

4 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

They hate trump

 

and I love it!

[HenryJames 66,041]

 

[HenryJames 66,041]