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2018 - Elections and Trends

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted

They need to square their MO/IN predictions besides "a feeling." Because Donnelly has been up in almost every gold-standard poll and Claire is either tied or ahead (Hawley is like, only led in Republican friendly or Republican internal polls).   There's been huge, record midterm turnout in Lake/Marion in IN which are the Democratic strongholds.

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9881

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

My understanding is that some third party group who doesn't like AOC submitted Crowley's name as their candidate and is distributing fliers with Crowley on them. 

 

Not Sure if Posted, but he literally can't take his name off the ballot unless he moved out of the district and was disqualified.

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Js1

Js1 85050

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Just a reminder for all of you degenerates (hi, me too):

Go to bed after the polls close on the West Coast and if/when they call AZ and NV Sen.  Because most of those California/Washington races may not be called for WEEKS due to VBM.  Ballots just have to be postmarked by 11/6.  Could take a while.  We had primary races go for 4-5 weeks before they got called.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted

What's funny about the NYT Upshot polls is that when I've watched them the past two days, almost all of them had 10% undecided voters. How in the fuck are there that many undecided voters right now? I guess I shouldn't be surprised that many people don't go to any lengths to inform themselves of who to vote for.

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

My understanding is that some third party group who doesn't like AOC submitted Crowley's name as their candidate and is distributing fliers with Crowley on them. 

 

Actually they like AOC and Crowley. They usually just certify the Dem nominee. This year, they decided to nominate Crowley before the Dem primary. That party needs to actually dissolve if it isn't going to have its own nominees. He isnt running, but couldnt get off the ballot without changing residence.

Anyway, he may get a few votes, but it won't be close.   AOC now benefits from straight Dem voters who don't know any candidates names. 

Also, she isnt campaigning now either.  Nor is the irrelevant GOP candidate. If Cuomo wasnt campaigning, you wouldnt even know there is an election here tomorrow. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104446

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mole said:

Hopefully that Trump make the gospel great again sign is either some really on the nose satire or a Russian campaign. Otherwise we’re living in the Left Behind version of Revelations.

Sigh.  You know the truth.  It involves a shitty miniseries with Kirk Cameron.

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

What's funny about the NYT Upshot polls is that when I've watched them the past two days, almost all of them had 10% undecided voters. How in the fuck are there that many undecided voters right now? I guess I shouldn't be surprised that many people don't go to any lengths to inform themselves of who to vote for.

They don't push them.  But Cohn does usually mention that the vast majority of them seem to favor Democrat control and/or lean towards the D candidate.  It's a matter of them breaking at the last minute, a la every other wave election.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

ate says/Nates say: prepare for November surprises in some safe looking R districts.

This is the shit I was talking about yesterday.  There are so many districts that don’t get polled because they’re just assumed to go red and there’s no reason to waste the money on it.  

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is the shit I was talking about yesterday.  There are so many districts that don’t get polled because they’re just assumed to go red and there’s no reason to waste the money on it.  

So what you're saying is....

We def needed 6 more Florida Senate polls the final weekend.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

What's funny about the NYT Upshot polls is that when I've watched them the past two days, almost all of them had 10% undecided voters. How in the fuck are there that many undecided voters right now? I guess I shouldn't be surprised that many people don't go to any lengths to inform themselves of who to vote for.

ken.jpg

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Hawndoh

Hawndoh 2379

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

What's funny about the NYT Upshot polls is that when I've watched them the past two days, almost all of them had 10% undecided voters. How in the fuck are there that many undecided voters right now? I guess I shouldn't be surprised that many people don't go to any lengths to inform themselves of who to vote for.

I bet at least 10% of Americans don't realize tomorrow is election day. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9881

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

Nate says/Nates say: prepare for November surprises in some safe looking R districts.

There is 100% a GOP member of congress out there who has put in minimal reelection effort, thinks they've got it in the bag, and is going to get a very uncomfortable call around 9:00 pm on election night.

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

There is 100% a GOP member of congress out there who has put in minimal reelection effort, thinks they've got it in the bag, and is going to get a very uncomfortable call around 9:00 pm on election night.

Every. Fucking. Cycle.

Love seeing who the Dumbfuck of the Cycle ends up being.  Big ole whoops.

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happyfunball

happyfunball 481

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

There is 100% a GOP member of congress out there who has put in minimal reelection effort, thinks they've got it in the bag, and is going to get a very uncomfortable call around 9:00 pm on election night.

giphy.gif

Edited by happyfunball
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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33822

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

Overnight RCP moved the WV Senate race from Leans Dem to Tossup.  Just a few days ago it was rated Likely Dem.

Their projection now is 50 R, 43 D and 7 Tossups.  They are moving more in line with actual early voting trends.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_race_changes.html

yeah, well, WV and R belong to each other

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Overnight RCP moved the WV Senate race from Leans Dem to Tossup.  Just a few days ago it was rated Likely Dem.

Their projection now is 50 R, 43 D and 7 Tossups.  They are moving more in line with actual early voting trends.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_race_changes.html

Anything that falls to 5 points or below automatically moves into "toss-up" by RCP.  RCP is an aggregator, they just average out polls and call it a day.  They aren't moving shit because of anything happening on the ground.  Don't make shit up.  More likely an older poll dropped out and moved the average down to 5.0, causing the automatic movement into toss-up.  538 still has this as Likely D

Edited by Js1
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Anything that falls to 5 points or below automatically moves into "toss-up" by RCP.  RCP is an aggregator, they just average out polls and call it a day.  They aren't moving shit because of anything happening on the ground.  Don't make shit up.  More likely an older poll dropped out and moved the average down to 5.0, causing the automatic movement into toss-up.  538 still has this as Likely D

I’ll add that theirs about 10 house races the Dems are heavily favored in which are labeled by a RCP as “ toss ups”. Same thing for repubs too. About 10 -15

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Watch Abbott lose. 

It's going to be some longtime incumbent who decided not to campaign.  Or, interestingly enough, something like Mississippi Senate special election.  3 candidates, no party ID, top 2 make the run-off.  Wonky things can happen there.

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8795

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Overnight RCP moved the WV Senate race from Leans Dem to Tossup.  Just a few days ago it was rated Likely Dem.

Their projection now is 50 R, 43 D and 7 Tossups.  They are moving more in line with actual early voting trends.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_race_changes.html

As much as i don't want to see the WV senate seat flip, part of me would get some joy to see Manchin lose even after he voted for Kavanaugh to appease the repubs in the state. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

As much as i don't want to see the WV senate seat flip, part of me would get some joy to see Manchin lose even after he voted for Kavanaugh to appease the repubs in the state. 

I would think that any of McCaskill, Donnelly or Heitkamp would gladly trade places with Manchin right now.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

There is 100% a GOP member of congress out there who has put in minimal reelection effort, thinks they've got it in the bag, and is going to get a very uncomfortable call around 9:00 pm on election night.

I was reading about the Steve King race in Iowa.  A local newspaper editor was quoted as saying that he couldn't believe how lazy King was being with this election cycle.  The editor felt that King could out-debate and out-campaign his opponent but he was phoning it in this cycle.    And that was even before the events over the past 2 weeks.    

When you take your constituency for granted, then some of your supporters may take it for granted that you will win.  And they won't bother to show up to the polls.

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Js1

Js1 85050

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I was reading about the Steve King race in Iowa.  A local newspaper editor was quoted as saying that he couldn't believe how lazy King was being with this election cycle.  The editor felt that King could out-debate and out-campaign his opponent but he was phoning it in this cycle.    And that was even before the events over the past 2 weeks.    

When you take your constituency for granted, then some of your supporters may take it for granted that you will win.  And they won't bother to show up to the polls.

He finally went up on the air - WITH AN AD FROM 2014! 

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gmr548

gmr548 16460

Posted
Posted
I was reading about the Steve King race in Iowa.  A local newspaper editor was quoted as saying that he couldn't believe how lazy King was being with this election cycle.  The editor felt that King could out-debate and out-campaign his opponent but he was phoning it in this cycle.    And that was even before the events over the past 2 weeks.    
When you take your constituency for granted, then some of your supporters may take it for granted that you will win.  And they won't bother to show up to the polls.

Too tired to campaign when he stays out late at klan rallies three or four times a week.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Js1

Js1 85050

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Posted

So, all these illegals are going to flood the polling places tomorrow in Georgia, with valid voter registrations?  Meaning Kemp didn't do his job to reject these for being undocument immigrant noncitizens?  And they should trust him to then do a bang-up job of governor?

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NameWithHeld

NameWithHeld 101

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Bullshit.  Leaders are supposed to lead.  That’s no longer the GOP way.  Rather than lead the country toward a brighter future, the GOP has resigned itself to indulging the worst paranoid fantasies of its moron base.  The GOP is now the enabler, helping its friends find a vein for a shot of ignorance and vitriol.  That shit might feel good now.  But no nation has ever been made better off by the kind of divisive, idiotic shit the GOP currently peddles to its rage-junkie base.  It will rot this great nation, and the GOP’s choice to enable rather than lead will be to blame.  

tl;dr: be a man and take responsibility for the bullshit your party condones.

What about BLM, Antifta etc?  Who is fucking leading from the left?  Obama?  He is too busy flailing his arms and talking about himself to lead.

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gmr548

gmr548 16460

Posted
Posted
What about BLM, Antifta etc?  Who is fucking leading from the left?  Obama?  He is too busy flailing his arms and talking about himself to lead.

Poorly conceived and executed "BuT oBaMa!1!1!1" Needs improvement. 3/10.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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