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2018 - Elections and Trends

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

You said it in the only way that matters: you voted for it. 

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I told my friends at work today to get ready for some excuse destroying reality.   We are no longer going to be able to excuse the behavior of voters in this election as 'being foolish', 'hoping Trump

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Fire protection. Police protection. Local road construction and maintenance. Interstate highway construction and maintenance. Airport operation, air traffic control, airline safety

GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Those black panthers have excellent choices in firearms.  This ad might backfire with the gun nuts.  I mean a SCAR Heavy with a 203 grenade launcher?!?  Where do I sign up? 

You're forgetting that guns and the 2A are only allowed for white people. Seriously, I've heard of people saying they wouldn't vote for Abrams because (in their words) she wants to take away guns. Of course the caveat is that they would never have voted for a black woman even if she never said a single thing about gun control.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

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46 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Oh, so pretty much what we will probably have come January?  Great.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/05/politics/donald-trump-democrats-tax-returns/index.html

Quote

President Donald Trump shrugged off the prospect of Democrats going after his tax returns if the party wins control of the House in this week's midterm contests, suggesting Monday he was unbothered by a protracted fight over his financial documents.

"I don't care. They can do whatever they want, and I can do whatever I want," Trump said as he deplaned in Indiana for his second rally of the day.

A top target for Democrats remains Trump's personal tax returns, an ask that Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi told the the San Francisco Chronicle's editorial board last month is "one of the first things we'd do."

 

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Goredho

Goredho 17299

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, NameWithHeld said:

That’s fucking disgusting.   That doesn't represent the GOP.  Unfortunately you can’t pick your followers the same way you can’t pick your family.  

Um, a slight flaw in that analogy.  Neither you nor your embarrassing family member have a choice to be related.  A follower, however, has the choice to follow you, and will do so only if your message resonates.

Thus your choice of message absolutely does choose who follows you. Project white superiority and/or the inferiority of other races, then you wind up being a leader of white supremecists.  Project racial equality and tolerance and you wind up not being a leaderof white supremecists.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

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The texts have picked up over the past few days, and starting to get some Republican ones.

Quote

Hi, it's Team Beto again! Early voting turnout has shown us the incredible impact our volunteers have made so far. Our LAST weekend of action has started & we only have 3 days to give it all we've got. We need your help to reach voters across Texas before Election Day. Start knocking doors alongside fellow supporters at a volunteer run pop-up office near you. See you in the field?  Only if you can guarantee Ted is not hunting for new victims in Austin.  LOL, you will be working alongside other volunteers.

Choose Republican judges who are highly qualified, respected and have the right experience. Vote Bourland, Field, Puryear & Toth for the 3rd Court of Appeals. https://vimeo.com/298634603. IMG_8110.JPG  Sir, is that a photograph of your penis?  Look sir, I am just a worker at a call center in Mumbai.  If you are in India, why is your phone number registering with a 512 area code?  Sir, I do not know how to answer such questions, we have an application on a website that we type our messages into and it sends it to you.  Do you have any more photographs you would like to send? Hey are you paid to post on internet forums?  Yes we are.  Have you ever posted on a site called ShaggyBevo.com or SurlyHorns.com.  I have not, but one of my coworkers has.  She says one of those websites was nothing but people doing unspeakable things with feces, while the other one showed people pooping in creative ways.  She posts almost 10 times a day on the Surly Bevo site.  Sir?

Hi, this is Gina w/ Beto for Texas. We've been working towards this for months: tomorrow is Election Day. You've read the texts, you've seen the emails, and you've gotten the calls. This is it. We need you to show up tomorrow with everything you've got. There's a volunteer-run pop-up office near you where supporters are knocking doors until 7PM tomorrow. With Election Day upon us, will you join this final push? There's a final push I'd like to make.  IMG_8114.JPG  You know, I could report you to the officials and bar you from appearing at any Beto volunteer events, or worse for you, I could pass it around to the other volunteers.  If that's really you, you're what 7, or 7 1/2 inches? I wouldn't be sending that photo out to strangers.  Is Gina even your real name?  IMG_8115.JPG Wow, you're so vain, you included a ruler in the photo, all over a quarter of an inch?  Look kid, I'm a 63-year old grandma, and I've seen everything.  You're still under 8-inches, no matter how you try to position the ruler.  I have a lot of texts to send and calls to make tonight.  Please do not send any more photographs, or I WILL pass them around to the other volunteers for a good laugh.

Hi, it's Dana w/ Team Beto! Election Day is only 24 hours away. Every moment until the polls tomorrow Tuesday is critical. If we're going to reach our goal of knocking 1 million doors, we need you to lace up your walking shoes and hit the pavement. Fellow supporters will be meeting for a block walk training at a volunteer-run office near you and then heading out to block walk!  Will you knock doors with us between now and tomorrow night?  Dana?  A/S/L?  IMG_8117.JPG I've been warned about you, and we are removing you from our lists, and blocking you.  You have to be a real dumbass to send around dick pics.  You're barely 7 inches.  You would fit right in with the Republicans with such a small dick..  You will not hear from us again.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

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15 minutes ago, Capn81 said:

With Oprah?

 

There are a lot of women who look up to her.  Even plenty of Republican women. She's an actual successful businesswoman who built her empire without any help from a rich daddy bailing her out.   We just think the media loved report Trunp;s every soundbite in 2016.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted

 

holy shit guys check out this video if you have 5 minutes. I’ve never laughed so hard in my life. The video starts off with this old geezer who stumbles and bumbles worse then chuck grassley at a senate hearing then some “political analyst” shows up with a shit eating grin declaring in as professional a way as possible “ THE POLLS ARE FAKE NEWS AND THE MEDIA HAS TURNED EVERYONE AGAINST THE DEMOCRATS”. I won’t spoil what else he says, but his “predictions” are good for a laugh too. This analyst should probably find another line of work.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27593

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NBMisha

NBMisha 224

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Posted

That FL ammendment could add up to 1.4 MM to the voting rolls.  Meanwhile, this a.m. the latest polls put Gillum and Nelson up by 7.  This could be the beginning of the end of the pubs in FL.  All my neighbors here will have exploded heads.

 

And fuck Rick Scott.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

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I’m sure that Kemp has fired some people that the Dems are cheating by trying  to hack into the voter database.  However weren’t those rubes already voting for kemp in the first place?

but given the craziness and misdirection by kemp, abrams’ best hope might be just getting to the runoff now.   If she makes it to take point, I do think there will be a ridiculous amount of national support for her.  I’m assuming that you can still ask for contributions during a runoff and she would receive millions from small donors.

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HenryJames

HenryJames 65866

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Has pointing out trumps lies ever led to anything meaningful?   His supporters don’t care if he lies to them much less to the evil liberals.   It’s really a crazy world that will be studied in the future.  

It serves to mobilize the other side.

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Js1

Js1 85050

Posted
Posted

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katherinemiller/midterms-watch-guide?origin=thum

Some interesting things:

Quote

  • Most calls will likely be made between 9:30 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. ET. After that, we'll be waiting on calls that are probably a. really close races, b. races from parts of the Midwest and the West Coast.

  • It’s pretty likely we’ll know by 9 p.m. or 9:30 p.m. ET if we’re looking at a major wave election or not, based on data coming from the East Coast and Midwest...

Quote

One to watch is New Hampshire's 1st District: For the last 10 years, its vote total has been within 1% of the national House vote. Returns start coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, so it starts pretty early, too. A Democrat and a Republican have been swapping this district back and forth for years, in some kind of New England Hatfields-McCoys thing. Currently, Democrat Carol Shea-Porter holds the seat, but she is retiring, leaving Republican Eddie Edwards vs. Democrat Chris Pappas.

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THE 9 P.M. ET HOUR

Now is when the calls will really start, and we'll be able to look at the data we have and say, "OK, this is a big wave election" or "This is more complicated than a wave election."

 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m sure that Kemp has fired some people that the Dems are cheating by trying  to hack into the voter database.  However weren’t those rubes already voting for kemp in the first place?

but given the craziness and misdirection by kemp, abrams’ best hope might be just getting to the runoff now.   If she makes it to take point, I do think there will be a ridiculous amount of national support for her.  I’m assuming that you can still ask for contributions during a runoff and she would receive millions from small donors.

Yes and because there is a special congressional session coming up next week that means since Kemp is acting SoS he isn't allowed to fundraise for a while. My new concern is that if Abrams wins tonight we could almost see some corrupt shit like what happened in NC when Roy Cooper won and the vastly dominated GOP congress tried to strip the office of governor of a lot of its power at the last second.

A good thing I've heard already is several of my friends and twitter-peeps I know have said the lines this morning are the longest some of the poll workers have ever seen and compared it to 2008. I hope to freaking god that is going to help Abrams.

 

Also, this is some interesting nerdgasming data if nothing else.

 

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89353

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Unsolicited texts.

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Hi, this is Travis County GOP chairman Matt Mackowiak. Democratic turnout in Travis County has been high. Please go vote today. The polls are open from 7am-7pm. A straight ticket GOP vote will help our judges. You can find vote recs & locations at http://www.TravisCountyGOPElectionDay.com. Thanks!  IMG_8119.JPG  is that ur penis?  Is this the Travis County GOP chairman?  no, I’m just an intern and I have a boyfriend.  Are you actually here in Texas or are you some Indian at a call-center?  I’m actually here in Texas, I’m a student at Texas State   IMG_8120.JPG wow that really is you  let me give you my cell  

 

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Js1

Js1 85050

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Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m sure that Kemp has fired some people that the Dems are cheating by trying  to hack into the voter database.  However weren’t those rubes already voting for kemp in the first place?

but given the craziness and misdirection by kemp, abrams’ best hope might be just getting to the runoff now.   If she makes it to take point, I do think there will be a ridiculous amount of national support for her.  I’m assuming that you can still ask for contributions during a runoff and she would receive millions from small donors.

Just your friendly reminder that Democrats in Georgia removed the run-off requirement in 1992 and the Republicans put it back in 2005. 

Also, she may not be the only run-off.  Senate control may hinge on the Mississippi Special that is probably 99.9% going to a run-off between Espy (D) and either Hyde Smith or McDaniel (R).

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

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14 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Yet another prediction, this one from Harry Enten, formerly of 538, now with CNN.

225-210 D House

52-48 R Senate

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/forecast

I'm pretty sure this was his final update.

Correction, they updated one final time early this morning:

227-208 (median), 229-206 (average)

52-48

Found this interesting in the Senate analysis:

If each of our state forecasts is right, however, Democrats will end up 50 seats to the Republicans 50 seats.

Right now, our forecast has Democratic candidates winning by 2 points or less in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada. No Republican is forecasted to win by less than 6 points. Based upon past history, the model expects that two of these close forecasted Democratic victories will turn into Democratic defeats. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted

If any of you care about EV in contested CA House districts, this is the latest compiled by Political Data Inc. Last updated yesterday unless indicated otherwise.

 

CA-50 (RCP rates leans R) - incumbent Hunter (R): registered D 27,047, registered R 44,048, other/independent 21,784

CA-49 (leans D) - incumbent Harkey (R): D 38,606, R 45,878, I 28,554

CA-48 (tossup) - incumbent Rohrbacher(R): D 39,779, R 53,385, I 29,732

CA-45 (T) - incumbent Walters (R): D 39,806, R 52,721, I 31,928

CA-39 (T) - open seat (R): 26,754 D, 34,230 R, 19,311 I

CA-25 (T) - Incumbent Knight (R): 27,349 D, 28,977 R, 16,614 I

CA -24 (Likely D) - Incumbent Carbajal (D): 47,459 D, 43,075 R, 27,247 I

CA-22 (Likely R) - Incumbent Nunes (R): 24,146 D, 36,638 R, 13,423 I

CA-21 (Likely R) - Incumbent Valdao (R): D 17,500, R 16,242, I 8,137

CA-10 (T) - Incumbent Denham (R): 30,138 D, 30,137 R, 14,455 I.  Last updated 11/2

CA-7 (Leans D) - Incumbent Bera (D): 42,077 D, 39,404 R, 24,106 I. Last updated 11/2

CA-4 (Leans R) - Incumbent McClintock (R): 44,033 D, 62,033 R, 30,753 I.  Last updated 11/2

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

...My new concern is that if Abrams wins tonight we could almost see some corrupt shit like what happened in NC when Roy Cooper won and the vastly dominated GOP congress tried to strip the office of governor of a lot of its power at the last second.

 

Of course they will.  

My favorite last second shenanigans is going to occur in Fla on Jan. 9th.  Three justices have to retire that day due to age.  The law reads like they are out at midnight.  Rick Scott will be governor until ~noon that day.  Scott has said that he will appoint 3 state supreme court justices in his final hours to serve 6 years each.  How many people think Rick would work closely with potential Gov. Gillum to appoint justices that will serve all Floridians?

This happened once before in '99 with 1 justice retiring and a Dem was replaced by a Repub (Jeb.)  They compromised on a justice.   

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45473

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

If any of you care about EV in contested CA House districts, this is the latest compiled by Political Data Inc. Last updated yesterday unless indicated otherwise.

 

CA-50 (RCP rates leans R) - incumbent Hunter (R): registered D 27,047, registered R 44,048, other/independent 21,784

CA-49 (leans D) - incumbent Harkey (R): D 38,606, R 45,878, I 28,554

CA-48 (tossup) - incumbent Rohrbacher(R): D 39,779, R 53,385, I 29,732

CA-45 (T) - incumbent Walters (R): D 39,806, R 52,721, I 31,928

CA-39 (T) - open seat (R): 26,754 D, 34,230 R, 19,311 I

CA-25 (T) - Incumbent Knight (R): 27,349 D, 28,977 R, 16,614 I

CA -24 (Likely D) - Incumbent Carbajal (D): 47,459 D, 43,075 R, 27,247 I

CA-22 (Likely R) - Incumbent Nunes (R): 24,146 D, 36,638 R, 13,423 I

CA-21 (Likely R) - Incumbent Valdao (R): D 17,500, R 16,242, I 8,137

CA-10 (T) - Incumbent Denham (R): 30,138 D, 30,137 R, 14,455 I.  Last updated 11/2

CA-7 (Leans D) - Incumbent Bera (D): 42,077 D, 39,404 R, 24,106 I. Last updated 11/2

CA-4 (Leans R) - Incumbent McClintock (R): 44,033 D, 62,033 R, 30,753 I.  Last updated 11/2

CA-22 seems like it must be full of really smart people...

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